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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: jth]
      #27029 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:02 AM

Sure is taking a long time for the discussion. Advisory has been out for 20 minutes now.

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STORM CHASER
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: meto]
      #27030 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 AM

Quote:

it has moved some nne.




where do you see that?


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: STORM CHASER]
      #27032 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 AM

I think he has been wishing it to move NNE the entire time...could be wrong but it sure seems that way. No offense intended Meto.

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tenavilla]
      #27033 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 AM

Quote:

Sure is taking a long time for the discussion. Advisory has been out for 20 minutes now.




It's up now.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27034 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM

I believe in the NHC forecast track

--------------------
________2016 Forecast: 14/7/4________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tpratch]
      #27035 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM

They moved the projected path slightly more to the west

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27036 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM

you dont know what i want it looked that way on TWC,

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tenavilla]
      #27037 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 AM

The current situation with the storm is that its circulation has captured much of that dry air trailing the trough along the coast and is rapidly pulling it into its western circulation. This will cause furthere weakening and its cat V and IV hours are limited if not over.
i guess the current thinking of the forecast into the central gulf coast incuded the assumption that the storm was so big and powerful it could actuall push the convergence point between the lower pressure trough and the ATL ridge north, but if it weakens some that may not occur. that point has been set up around 27N and 87west for the past couple of days and the upper air flow is radically ene from there into the big bend area. I still suspect land fall could be around Apalacheecola as I stated yesterday especially if a smaller and weaker Ivan is more likely to be influenced by these upper air flows.

--------------------
doug


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: meto]
      #27038 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 AM

I'll stick by what the NHC is saying. I have family in the panhandle and they are trying right now to make a decision on what to do. They might come down here to stay with us. Last week we went up there. Pretty ironic.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27042 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 AM

Good advice...anything I said is only for discussion. IF NHC thinks this is a N.O. storm, so be it Cat III there will be very dangerous

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: doug]
      #27043 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 AM

NEW THREAD UP!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1398
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Turns, Twists & Tempers [Re: meto]
      #27045 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 AM

If anyone looked at the picture they just showed on the Weather Channel, it certainly looked to be going NORTH at THAT PRECISE MOMENT IN TIME.
People are allowed to say what they see, and I don't think that meto was "wishcasting" anything.
As far as the storm not turning, at this point, I think that the NHC is becoming more confident in it's track and I do not think that Ivan will make a hard right and turn into Tampa Bay. That being said, today is Tuesday, landfall is supposed to occur around Thursday. That's 2 days away. I believe with Frances 2 days out they were forecasting it to possibly move up the coast of the Carolinas, and even some people here were agreeing with that forecast. The bottom line is this: Frances turned, Charley turned. When did they turn? Charley turned about 4 hours before he was supposed to hit Tampa. Frances turned and kept everyone on their toes for about 12 hours. I don't think it was until she almost made landfall that they were able to nail the precise place. Two days out, a little shove to the north, maybe a little bit of of turn to the east and the forecast changes again for a whole lot of people. I'm not say this is going to happen, I'm saying it's POSSIBLE. Hopefully, the models have a good handle on this thing right now and we're only 2 days away so I don't see a huge track shift coming in the future.
Tarpon---this is kind of ironic, but you posted about Dennis Phillips and how irresponsible his comments were last night. I watched him and he said "IF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES, AND IT COULD BE JUST A JOG, THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT". He was correct about the models not getting the new info because it had just started that trend. At 5:15pm, only two of the models had the new info and they DID swing it to the right. However, if you listened to him during the following hours, he corrected himself many times, as he was doing updates every 1/2 hour. I was watching the game and I saw him. At 12:something, he said it WAS JUST A JOG. I don't think he was being irresponsible. The reason I say it is ironic is because when I was on him about Frances, you were defending him as being one of the best out there. Go figure. Just like us, he saw the northward movement, too. Then it moved again to the NW.

I think all Floridians are a little uncomfortable and testy right now. We've been on STORM ALERT mode for over a month. Nerves are frayed, tempers are flaring and these things bring out the best and worst of us. We need to try and remember that when posting to one another. We're all in the same boat. I know I said a lot of prayers last night asking that this storm comes in well below a Cat 5 because after seeing two come directly over me, a Cat 1 isn't any fun either.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: 103177]
      #27046 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 AM

See you don't want to get caught uncovered if this pulls a Charley and lands where it aint supposed to.........those of us in e central florida have jean to watch.

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anon
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: Redbird]
      #27052 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM

the west CONUS wv loop shows a possible "crazy Ivan" move to port..... i sure hope not......

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ddrehman
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: anon]
      #27055 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 AM

Could you give a link to that satellite image please. Thank you.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD!!! [Re: ddrehman]
      #27056 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM

Folks, Mike Put Up A NEW THREAD an hour ago...you should post there. Thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: Turns, Twists & Tempers [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27066 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM

I did defend him during Charlie. However, during last nights news, I don't think it was that important that it moved north as the NHC advisory stated that we would be seeing a NNW track for the next 12 hours.

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anon
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: ddrehman]
      #27076 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:28 PM

here's the link: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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