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Hurricane Edouard Moving NW in the Central Atlantic Odile in east pacific landfalls in Cabo San Lucas in Baja MX as a Major Hurricane.
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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JackLove
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: Unregistered User]
      #27009 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM

Quote:

Hope this lightens up your day a little!......topic: Hurricane Preparations:

[..]

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)





A couple of drops of bleach in a gallon of water will go a long way towards making the water potable. It's a classic survival technique not meant for a permanent solution, but it;s better than drinking water with nasty germs in it.


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: mlamay]
      #27010 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 AM

Hey Clearwater:

Did you see the met on the abc affiliate from Tampa last night at 5 p.m.? He saw the storm turn North and stated that if this was true the models would be pushed east at the 11 o'clock update. He stated that the NHC did not have this Northern turn in its 5 o'clock models.

I researched this and noted that yesterday's 5 p.m. advisory from the NHC stated that for the next 12 hours the storm would track NNW. At 5 p.m. the coordinates were 21.3 N and 84.9 W. They estimated that in 12 hours the storm would be at 22.7 N and 85.7 W, a NNW track. I cannot believe how irresponsible his comments were. All he had to do was look at the 5 p.m. advisory and see that this Northern track was expected. As it turned out, the storm began tracking NW, thus the 11 p.m track had to be adjusted to the west. The Tampa Bay area has been jittery for a month now. His comments were unwarranted.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: MikeC]
      #27011 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:04 AM

All the models are now in relatively close agreement with a PCB to NO (Pensacola?) landfall...

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?9

At some point model concensus should overcome wishcasting, should it not...?


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hey Mike [Re: Tarpon]
      #27012 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:05 AM

Everyone loves Dave Barry.

Everyone loves quoting his "Hurricane Preparation Guide for Guys".

nobody seems to want to simply give the link

Dave Barry's Hurricane Preparation Guide for Guys

So, it seems nobody has wanted to shift partial focus to the future Jeanne yet. Is she just going to sit in the Atlantic and scare the fishes, or is she potentially a threat to the East Coast of Florida again?

Edited by tpratch (Tue Sep 14 2004 10:09 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hey Mike [Re: Tarpon]
      #27013 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:06 AM

Yes Tampa stll isnt going to even get TS winds. Jeanne btw will be named at 11am winds near 40mph,. 1005 pressure, expect this to increase to 50mph by 5pm or when recon goes in. Anyways my landfall for my 3 day forcast 2 days ago is still Biloxi-Mobile. Expect landfall late in the afternoon or evening and winds around 120mph. Movement will be N or NNE at landfall. Storm surge around 8 - 10 ft. Rainfall amounts up to 10 inches ahead and near center of landfall. NO might get some gusts to hurricane force but I expect TS force winds. Many tornados will be spawned in the Panama City-Mobile area. I expect a slow movement thru alabama then increase in forward speed along the app mts.

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Spectrum24
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mlamay]
      #27014 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:07 AM

I've been lurking around this board for a few years, and finally want to say something. I can't imagine for any reason why someone would WANT a hurricane to come to their area. At a minimum, you'll lose power from days to weeks. In case you haven't noticed, it's Florida (well, it is here anyway). it's summer. it's HOT. it's HUMID. you will be VERY uncomforable. In a major storm, you will also very likely have damage. Because insurance is now 2% hurricane deductible, YOU will have to pay a lot of money to get things fixed. Frances was TS by the time it got here to tampa, but several walls leaked, and water came up though the floor. My house has furniture all over it, I had to move out of my bedroom, and it's going to cost me a couple grand to fix. and this was for a T.S. People, if you haven't seen a real hurricane (I was in Miami for Andew), then just count your lucky stars. If you insist on wishcasting, wish it to the north atlantic where it can die. End of rant.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Good Luck! [Re: DroopGB31]
      #27015 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 AM

Droop...I know the feeling....the feeling of wow I have tracked these storms for a long time...and now one is heading right at me! The good news is that you will be SAFE assuming you will be in a concrete building, hopefully with shutters, and away from the storm surge area. My recollection of Andrew was that we felt better knowing that we did all we could do to protect our family and property; everything else we could not control. Good luck...take lots of pictures/videos...you will want to remember this storm!

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Tarpon]
      #27016 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 AM

I don't agree with Accuweather's forecast then. Trough is not rapidly lifting out as per H2O pic, and the motion seems more NNW, and I feel it is becoming less likely it will turn left again. 89W long. is not in my forecast.
By the way, Joe B gave an excellent interview last night on O'Reilly, with respect to why patterns are changing, etc.


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Spectrum24]
      #27017 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 AM

Excellent post. These wishcasters have no idea what they are wishing for. I'm in No. Pinellas County and you should see the dead trees waiting to be picked up from a tropical storm. Fellow workers were without power for 5 days. I can't stand it without A/C in November let alone the middle of September. The deductible for hurricane damage on my home is over $3,000. For now we appear safe in Tampa Bay for this storm. I'm praying like crazy Ivan gets sheared down to 100 MPH or less at landfall.

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cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Good Link to a Moored Bouy close to Ivans path [Re: MikeC]
      #27018 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 AM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 16.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.7 F


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
TV out of New Orleans [Re: MrSpock]
      #27019 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:41 AM

Anyone interested in monitoring New Orleans.

WWLTV.Com is live streaming their video.


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mlamay]
      #27020 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:43 AM

Ivan is not going to hook to the NE anytime soon. The trough that has caused the NNW movement during the past 12-18 hours is pulling out, and Ivan will now start being steered by the strong ridge to his east. Ivan will probably start moving more NW before curving NNE ahead of the trough coming from the central US. This places landfall anywhere from the FL panhandle to New Orleans, with my predicted target of Mobile.

Yes, people here in the Tampa Bay area have been in a state of panic, but we would have been more prepared than ever for a significant hurricane. It is doubtful that we will have such a response to future threats in future years.

God Bless,
Ronn

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Ronn]
      #27021 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:47 AM

Noticed on last recon that the inner eye wall had collapsed. Does this mean that we are indeed in an ERC? Again, it will not regain Cat 5 status, but could it maintain Cat 4 to landfall???

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: jth]
      #27022 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM

11am update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

One heck of a drop...

Or should I say drop in windspeed, increase in pressure?

Edited by tpratch (Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 AM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
TS Jeanne [Re: Ronn]
      #27023 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html

hmm....i can't wait!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
11am update [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27024 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 AM

How'd I miss this part?

"AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES."

260 Mile radius = 520 Miles of Tropical Storm or higher. Ho-leee...


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Spectrum24]
      #27025 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM

I'm in Indialantic, FL and we evacuated to the panhandle for Frances. We basically wanted to get out of the window of that storm totally for the sake of our 4 yr old boy. We didn't want him to experience any of the effects of a storm like that because it could be traumatic for him. We experienced the storm by reading online and watching the Weather Channel. It wasn't until we got home that we experienced exactly what this storm had done. We basically got hit , in our area because it wasn't a direct hit ,by a Cat 1 storm . Melbourne had sustained winds of 75mph or whatever with gusts up to 95mph for a long period of time. The damage is way worse than I thought it would be but still could have been so much more. Anyone who wants anything stronger than this hitting them is out of their minds in my opinion. They just don't really understand what they are wishing for. It's not exciting ...it devastates peoples lives.... really need to think about that before you start wishing it comes at you.

Edited by richisurfs (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Ronn]
      #27026 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM

Ronn, I just hope that people aren't too disappoointed in Tampa area.

I suspect there are those that are out on the beach looking West at the clouds and still thinking the worst.

I knew last Friday when we bought plywood that the storm would miss the area. I did not buy plywood for the first two storms but did this time..........go figure.
Anyway, if it kept Ivan away.......it was worth it.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27027 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM

Not the sign I wanted to see, but the new forecast has Ivan go down to 115 kts, but then strengthen just prior to landfall to 120kts. Also, the new forecast is an absolute worst case scenario for Mobile. Landfall on the MS/AL border would cause Mobile Bay to absolutely inundate Downtown Mobile.

Also, still expected to be a hurricane/TS well inland.


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27028 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM

it has moved some nne.

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