BeachBum
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
Thought that was a large stretch of coastline under a Hurricane Watch. It's clear that the forecast continues to be a below average confidence one--as they are allowing for a more western route while warning the folks all the way to the Panhandle.
Even if this latest track is dead on, the area for a hurricane watch should be quite large. See the winds at:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands2.asp
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Nope, recon has been out there for the last couple of hours, that is where those center fixes came from (another one came in just a little while ago). Not sure why no vortex message yet, but they might not have been out there long enough.
Bill
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jth off
Unregistered
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No..What you see out there now is deceiving though. The trough that was pulling a little more north earlier has weakened and started to pull out. That is allowing the NW motion to resume. That should continue until gets fairly close to the coast with a turn N then maybne NNE at the very end. The models are really starting to come to an agreement.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.
Latest landfall forecast map:
Full size image at www.skeetobite.com/weather
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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85.1 is east of the 11:00 85.4
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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it is not moving nw its going mainly north.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not going northwest? East of last fix? Look at the vis-ir loop and explain the movements. Seriously, don't watch a color-enhanced IR that spins cloudtops. Look at the real deal
The Real Deal [tm]
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
Edited by Steve (Tue Sep 14 2004 03:56 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Landfall in less than 60 hrs (???) over Pensacola....
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is at the storm. For some strange reason they flew down the west side and back north.
URNT11 KNHC 140324 ( 11:24pm edt)
97779 03244 30219 8560/ 30600 36097 1515/ /3619
RMK AF963 3209A OB 07
RADAR EYE FIX 21.9N 85.2W, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURACY
0.1NM.
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jth off
Unregistered
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Check out this link and then tell me its not moving NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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JK you have a very good point. Folks, if you live near the beach, bays or water, in the Hurricane Watch area, check your evacuation level.
Bay County FL, has been mentioned on . 11ft waves an hour ago at the East Gulf buoy. Could be some real high waves way before gets near.
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jth off
Unregistered
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JK where did the have the track???
That seems fairly reasonable to me. I don't think the track is going to change much anymore.
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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then why is recon saying 85.2
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
From when this starts to when it stops it looks like a more westerly component has been added. Maybe it just looks that way because it's a WV.
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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Thats true. Our local guy just showed a graphic of the ocean waves coming from . The outer bands alone are causing 15 foot waves. Kinda disconcerting because the bands look awfully close to the Keys now.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
models on here seem to update as fast as any site.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Correct Jason,,looks like most of the models have gone alittle to the east by 40-80 miles ( matters what models we look at). I would think that position for the might shift alittle east at the 5am adv. Also a side note.....interesting thru 84 hours on Jeanne.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Landfall at 54 hrs over Pensacola....seems a bit fast to me...so I am not sold that the is a good run....gonna have to inspect it further....
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is at the storm. The radar eye fix is the Present center of the storm at the time of their observation. The storm is moving slowly so the numbers change every few minutes.
The Recon Eye Fix is accurate to 0.1nm, per the observation, which is as close as you can get.
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jth off
Unregistered
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Seems like the shift east would put them more in line with the current forecast since it was east of the model consensus. Is my logic correct?
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