andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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yes and i agree a jog either way will make a big difference in the surge... thats what has us concerned. waiting for the 10 to come out to go to inlaws or stay here..
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Nevermind...Latest sat picks show the NNW movement still occurring. Mobile back to the crosshairs.
Also appears to be re-strengthening a little. Will be curious to see next Recon reports. Beleive the pressure may go back down a little.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.
During , my wife and I used our little 8 inch, car-lighter-powered TV to monitor the storm since we lost cable at 11am Saturday followed by power that evening.
It was actually fun getting the kids to bed then sneaking out and taking turns in the minivan (parked right by our front porch). Best investment ever! 
Edited by tpratch (Wed Sep 15 2004 01:55 PM)
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St. David
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
radar is great! easier to watch the eye.
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Thunder
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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It's pretty breezy here in Tally this morning. Don't know if this if due to or not...just thinking out loud.
I just heard that my uncle is going to wait it out in Pensacola....  He's not far from the coast either. I guess he's a grown man, he can do what he wants.
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Droop-inP-COLA
Unregistered
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This will be my last post before the storm. Im sitting in Pensacola about 2 miles from the water. Getting very breezy here and the sky is dark with swirling clouds. Very ominous sight. I'm nervous about tonight this will be a first for me. But keep everyone here on the Gulf Coast in your prayers and hope it blows over fast. Bye everyone. Great job keeping the board going through all this. Thanks to everyone.
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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Well at least our "Cedar Key & points south" wishcasters have finally gone silent! This storm had a predisposition to move west of all predicted forecast point since it gained hurricane status... we predicted New Orleans was in danger since passed the Grand Caymans, but nobody believed it.
God speed to those evacuating... especially those headed up I-65. I understand it has been doubled laned northward for the first time ever, and is bumper to bumper.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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A little hint for those who are in the line of fire today....if the HIRT Team is in your city....then you know what is coming i.e., GULF SHORES & FOLEY, AL. These guys know what they are doing...look at their site...they are the Hurricane version of Tornando chasers in the Midwest:
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
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BabyCatAtWork
Unregistered
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Thanks for the buoy index! I am transfixed on the amount of water and wave action and think that buoy may get even more interesting readings...
About Jeanne..I think the high pressure is carrrying will force a turn north...my .02
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Could be weakening further. The last few IR views show the eyewall breaking up a bit. He certainly will maintain much better than , but hopefully will get down to a 3 before landfall. I wouldn't bet against him though.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Morning all...just got done reading all the posts I missed from last night...
I'm going to try to be on as long as I can today/tonight, although by tonight anyone in the storm's path BETTER NOT BE ONLINE, unless they have evac'ed far far away. Sounds to me like Drooper is STAYING???
Well, you're all free to make your own choices...leaving your home is probably the hardest decision one can ever make and I just pray for all who decide to ride it out that they took all the advice from those who've been through them before.
Peace for now...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Click here for more tropical weather information.
** WTNT44 KNHC 151427 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND LOOKS TO BE MAKING
THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMNANTS OF . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 27.3N 88.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 28.9N 88.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 31.0N 87.9W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 32.8N 87.4W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I don't care if they yank my subscription...here's JB's 9:00:
"I think landfall is near Pascagoula Mississippi around 3 am. The blown out of proportion threat to New Orleans can be blown back into proportion now. The storm that would cause the kind of damage that has been alluded to in New Orleans is one with the track of the 1947 hurricane, which this never had. The monster Betsy in 1965 which had winds to 175 mph when it hit just west of the mouth of the Mississippi ( see weatherwise review, Feb 1966 issue for wind field of storm in southeast Louisiana) damaged the city but did not even result in the kind of mayhem that was being alluded to with . Camille, which hit 60 northeast of the city did not.
I think this will be the worst hurricane in the history of Mobile Alabama though, worse than Frederick in 1979 and one that will do tremendous damage to the bay area and the barrier islands."
I've been saying this since Monday, but when the other's say it too...
I've been so wrong all season...why did I have to get this one right? God I feel so bad for everyone right now...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Ivan now on 350 heading as per 11 AM discussion. The turn is happening, and, although there is relief that Accuweather was wrong for N.O., that only shifts the devastation east.
I do hope that everyone is out of the path, but if not, don't leave once the storm hits, and even be careful leaving after it seems over. It may not be. Many people have been fooled by the relative calm of the eye.
Another thing I expect after this makes landfall is a very strong convective tail on the right side away from the center. Although I don't know where this will form, it will likely come off of the Gulf, through Fla., and into Ga. Be careful for this, as those convective tails can be quite nasty.
Edit for the Accuweather comment:
I don't know that they called for anything west of where it should go, but I remember them saying it would get to 89 or 90 west, which it never did, hence the reason I thought their track was farther west.
Edited by MrSpock (Wed Sep 15 2004 02:53 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I don't think I've ever seen the models want to do so many twists and turns with hurricanes as what I'm seeing them try to do with both and Jeanne. You talk about models on crack!
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.
** WTNT41 KNHC 151437 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
JEANNE MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION THIS
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTION...AND THE OUTER BANDING HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT FROM AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. DOPPLER RADAR WINDS
SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55-60 KT. BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE IS A LEFT OUTLIER...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE
AND SUPERENSEMBLE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE AND CAUSING
SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS
TO ALMOST INSTANT DISSIPATION. MOST LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72
HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION.
PASSAGE OVER PUERTO RICO MAY AT LEAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND IF
JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS ARE OFF
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING PUERTO RICO. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR WILL AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.8N 65.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 68.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 20.2N 70.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.1N 71.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 77.5W 80 KT
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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At 11:00, still a strong IV, winds 135, gusting to 160...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
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Please explain to this novice what a convective tail is. Also, please explain what effects one could have on specific areas of Florida. Thanks.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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One should note that generator reimbursement is NOT guaranteed. The consensus from the people I know in the Palm Beaches / Treasure Coast is that there is no concrete guideline by FEMA as to whether or not they'll reimburse generator purchases, which is rather distressing. What is clear though is that they make the decision primarily on need, with financial standing secondary. Meaning if you need a generator because your shut-in grandmother has a nebulizer she needs running, you can be sure you'll be reimbursed. If you claim need of a generator so you don't miss the ball game, it's a different story of course.
Here's hoping the best for everybody in 's path.
--------------------
[witty phrase here]
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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This is fun to watch: lol
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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