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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #423 - Tue May 28 2002 11:05 AM

go to Forums on the left side of this page.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #427 - Tue May 28 2002 11:33 AM

Yes, you can definitely see a spin to the 91L. It looks like it is trying to move to N and then NW, but it's hard to tell with just the few loops we have this morning. Interesting that there has not yet been a statement on this one. Maybe they're biding their time, and it may just be a hybrid system. However, it does look more promising than the other one did as far as a rotation. It will be interesting to see what happens during the remainder of the day.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




91L
      #428 - Tue May 28 2002 11:56 AM

finally something interesting... have to see how the NHC chooses to deal with this system. it is fairly shallow, with removed convection and all, but looks pretty well defined and would probably be tagged a depression if there was a burst of convection on it. drifting in the general direction of northeast florida, probably a contender in the weather in this part of the country. further down the line, southeast of 91L there is a large convective mass that has my eye.. if this thing were showing much spin then it would be the center of attention. i'm not sure what to make of it just yet.
and of course between jamaica and honduras our broad surface low twists ever on.. there is more convection to its south this morning, but otherwise 90L remains unchanged.
might have a classified system before the day is out.. not a huge chance, but a chance.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Action in the Tropics - 91L
      #429 - Tue May 28 2002 11:59 AM

looks to me like it is moving more westerly than anything else. SST just aren't warm enough to support development. I just looked at bouy data off the NE coast of Fl and found a SST of 74. Still do not expect anything tropical in the Atlantic anytime soon.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Tropical Weather Discussion 5/28/02
      #430 - Tue May 28 2002 12:08 PM

I noticed in the TWD today that they mention both of these areas. The only thing they said about the 91L was that it was expected to drift to the NW and nothing much else. However, they mentioned 90L and said that although the models have it weakening, they do not dissipate it altogether.

I guess time will tell. The water temps they are showing on the Gulf Coast on the Weather Channel are in the 70's, I can tell ya from being out there, they are much warmer than that. So who KNOWS. Also...one other thing on the 91L. The NRL shows it (on the thumbnail) with a pressure of 1010 mb.

We'll see. :-)



--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Tropical Weather Discussion 5/28/02
      #431 - Tue May 28 2002 12:31 PM

Here's my forecast for the little low pressure area off of the Southeast Coast.
1. It moves southeast into warmer waters and develops into a tropical depression later today.
2. Tonight the system begins to strengthen rapidly and an eye begins to form.
3. It moves directly west into Florida as a category 5 thursday morning, but does no damage.
4. Max Mayfield wakes up in the middle of the night realizing he just had a nightmare.
WARNING: NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.



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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Tropical Weather Discussion 5/28/02
      #433 - Tue May 28 2002 12:45 PM

Too funny Kevin,
You need to add that after it crosses Florida it re-energizes and then hits Mobile...

Remember last year the guy who always predicted that Mobile would get hit by anything and everything in the GOM and it would always be a Cat 5... hehe


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
90L and 91L
      #434 - Tue May 28 2002 01:26 PM

ok, just a brief post from me for now...

90L still is hanging around, but is really not oreganised and devoid of almost all convection... dont know how much longer this one can hang around for, it has been 5 or 6 days already.

Now 91L, a brilliant satellite signature with an enclosed visible surface circulation, but convection located away from the low level clouds. If anything happens with this one i would think it would most likely become sub-tropical first of all. Pressure is around 1010mb, and winds around 30 knots.

I will post again later.

Rich

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
91L
      #435 - Tue May 28 2002 02:27 PM

91L is moving westward at the moment, center located around 29.6N and 76.9W.

Bouy 41010, closest to center has NE winds at 19.5K, SST of 76.8 deg F. BP 29.91
Bouy 41009, closer to shore and the Gulf Stream SST is a little higher at 80.2.

System has no convection to speak of associated with it...


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Weather Witch
Unregistered




Best Link Iv'e seen
      #436 - Tue May 28 2002 03:21 PM

This link really shows the low starting to spin:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Tolda ya we wouldn't have to contend with this disturbance.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Best Link Iv'e seen
      #438 - Tue May 28 2002 03:30 PM

Yes, it's a great picture and it does show the spin very nicely. However, did you notice the t-storms starting to form to the north of it? (Near SC) All the sudden at the end of the loop there's an explosion of t-storms. And it doesn't seem to be moving anywhere fast. Just spinning.

Thanks for the link.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Best Link Iv'e seen
      #439 - Tue May 28 2002 03:40 PM

Hey Frank...what would happen if those storms out there just decided to wrap themselves around that low? (I know I'm reaching, but that's what I'm here for, isn't it? ) The convection activity has actually picked up a bit to it's east, and so has the activity in the Caribbean. It's nothing, of course, but it's better than watching Jerry Springer.

Speaking of whom, don't you think it would be fun if we could all meet on one of those shows??? I can see it now: "PEOPLE WHO LOVE HURRICANES---AND HOW IT WRECKS THEIR LIVES" LOLOL!!!!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Weather Discussion 5/28/02
      #441 - Tue May 28 2002 03:50 PM

hey--hey--hey--its almost hurricane season!!!

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: 90L and 91L
      #442 - Tue May 28 2002 03:54 PM

Yo. Just read the TWD and it looks as if they are not going to classify it (although it could be) because the "models" are bringing it up to the NW and then out. Also, the 90L in the GOM or wherever the heck it is is "suppossed" to dissipate by Saturday. I thought they said that LAST week.

So here I sit, 2 days (or is it 3, who's counting????) before Hurricane season OFFICIALLY begins looking at loops.

Did I mention that loops make me sleepy? I think it's time for one of those afternoon naps. ;-)

Carry on, fellow Weather Watchers.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Best Link Iv'e seen
      #443 - Tue May 28 2002 04:16 PM

Colleen, sign me up for the Springer show... I know my wife would love to pound me on national TV regarding my insanity for storms.... One tradition I have is that every time the MS coast is threatened by a storm and evacuations are ordered, I always go to McDonalds and buy about a dozen or so cheeseburgers...

I usually stay in my house alone during the storms so I just pig out on burgers throughout the duration... Funny thing thought, I never buy cheeseburgers any other time...

Yeah I'm a definite candidate.... Lesson learned from Georges... My two fat basset hounds stayed with me, and eating the cheeseburgers drove em crazy as we all rode out the storm together in my house.. next storm I will have to increase my allotment to at least two dozen... for the dawgs of course...

Back to 91L... Convection is building off to the Northwest but is still several hundred miles away from center... wonder if the higher SSTs in gulf stream may be influencing the build up in that area? And if so, could this aid in some minor developing of this system as water temps off the coast and gulf stream are a several degrees higher than the center is presently located? I still don't expect much from either system though.

Edited by Frank P (Tue May 28 2002 04:35 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Increasing convection
      #444 - Tue May 28 2002 04:28 PM

There is now clear evidence of increasing convection to the north of 91L. There is one cluster to its northwest and one cluster to its northeast. Interesting to see this taking place as the TWD says the system is in a shear environment of 50 - 60 knots. I still think this system will most likely go sub-tropical, but not just yet!

As for 90L, it is still there, with convection once again firing up well to the south of the broad circulation. This has a long way to go though to become anything.

Both systems are not going anywhere fast just yet, so perhaps they are waiting for the official start of the season

Rich

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: Best Link Iv'e seen
      #446 - Tue May 28 2002 06:30 PM

HEHEHE thats funny Frank , I do the same thing only I buy beer, lots of it . When Gabrielle came thru just south of here last September I had 8 cases of beer!!! And my black lab Duke was right there with me , { I kept his treats in the fridge in the garage. About 7:00 A.M. that morning I saw my neihbor out digging a trench away from her Florida room. It was flooding . So I told her to get back in the house and i would trench it and bag it. She did . And my buddy Duke was with me the whole time !! Pouring down rain wind from the NNE @ 60 to 70 MPH with stronger gust And of course the wife is still sleeping !!! anyways my neihbor drove to the store and bought me more BEER !! If I had known that I never would have let her go ot the store!!! Anyway my wife finally woke up when debris started hitting the windows . She said the usual "Im Insane" . Then she said I looked cute in my Mossy Oak Breakup Rain Gear !! Go figure Then she went back to bed !! Duke got a treat , and I had a few beers then took off down to the beach, with Duke of course !!! "MANS BEST FRIEND "

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Rad
      #447 - Tue May 28 2002 07:10 PM

Rad, wish you were my neighbor... cheeseburgers and beer... and some high velocity wind.... does it get any better?

I think Colleen would agree that both you and I are strong candidates for the "Hurricane Fools Special" with Springer...


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: Rad
      #448 - Tue May 28 2002 07:24 PM

I dont think it does get any better than that !! Frank

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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