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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28297 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:58 AM

yes but see Bastardi today who argues the models are right side biased

--------------------
doug


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Breeezy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28298 - Thu Sep 16 2004 11:59 AM

how did Accuweather determine their projected path of Jeanne?....totally different from the track on TWC. How reliable has Accuweather been?

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staggy
Unregistered




Re: News from Pensacola...delayed but coming in [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #28299 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:01 PM

Quote:

I What the hell was a truck doing on the bridge? duh.




lets just hope it was on the bridge and that it wasn't transplanted from somewhere else.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28300 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

Just got back from watching JB streaming viedos. Agree with him totally on Jeanne and the whole right bias model thing. I have said this before and I'll say it again, I didn't think that Jeanne would re-curve because of Ivan backing down. The NHC bases their forecasts on models and US models to boot, one of these models being the GFS, which I think has some problems in the whole where it's going to go thing but works great with the motion. My thinking for Jeanne is that she will continue her current motion (maybe even to NNW) and then as Ivan backs down turn west into Florida.

Those two waves coming off the coast of Africa look like trouble. The longer it takes for the first wave to develop then the more likely it is to hit the United States, we'll see. By next week we could very well be seing Karl and Lisa.

Also, Ivan is still pounding parts of the southeast with rain. That high coming down from Canada and the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like. Hope everyone's okay that was in the path of Ivan and Jason's family.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:04 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne at 11? [Re: doug]
      #28301 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

You want to see "to-the-right" model track biased? Look at this link of Ivan from beggining to end....I think it the same with Frances as well....i think Bastardi has a point!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IVAN_graphics.shtml


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne [Re: Breeezy]
      #28302 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM

>>> How reliable has Accuweather been?

Nobody got Ivan right until 5-6 days out...but accuwx had a better handle on it than NHC, in my opinion.

I think JB sees everything heading for Fla now as well as the GOM...let's hope he's wrong.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Ivan Sat Loops [Re: MikeC]
      #28303 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:04 PM


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Lisa NC]
      #28304 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:05 PM

Can anyone explain to me why Accuweather would show a different path for Jeanne than the NHC? I mean seriously, how irresponsible is that? The storm may do that in the end but how irresponsible is that at this point? As far as I'm concerned they have lost all credibility with me.I believe strongly that the NHC's path is the one that should be followed. I'll go to my grave saying they know more about these storms and where they will go than anybody! Why in the world would Accuweather want to put something up there that gets people, who are already on edge, worried more than they already are. My opinion...they are totally lame! By the way, my family in Ft walton Beach suffered some down trees, missing shingles and no power since 5pm yesterday. I know things will be much worse there than that but I'm thankful that they were personally spared anything really bad.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Breeezy]
      #28305 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:07 PM

Very good on Ivan, but Bastardi is their chief forecaster on these and he is arguing against the models as being generally biased to the right of the actual forecast path. Part of this forecast is also based on the "noodels wiggling around" on the Ivan model runs past 48 hours and some of them retuning the remnants to the SW which Bastardi said will pull Jeanne westward over the Florida into the GOM
Believe me when I say we don't need that...I drove across Florida to Pt St. Lucie and back yesterday...what you see especially in the 30 mile wide Charley swath is not pretty...absolutely every building with damage even 75 miles inland in that path...something we will see in Pensacola, et. al today, unfortunately

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28306 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM

>>> the remmants of Ivan will spell GALE for the Mid-Atlatic states Fri and Sat. This will give them a preview of what Ivan was like

Keith, I can assure you that nothing the Mid-Atlantic states see from Ivan's remnant low will in any way REMOTELY resemble what those who just went through hell faced...

Truck on bridge...disconcerting pic to say the least...how was a truck even ALLOWED on that bridge? One can only hope it was there well before it collapsed and it was stalled or something and the driver made it out safely...

I'm sick to my stomach after this...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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GaryC
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #28307 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:09 PM

Well, if the models are a bit to the right then that would make it go into around central florida and skirt up the coast. Wouldnt it?

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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28308 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: Allison]
      #28309 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:10 PM

Quote:


Can someone post a link to a satellite loop showing the eye actually making landfall? The loops I've been looking at this morning are "jumpy," and don't show the eye until after it is alreay on shore.

Thanks!

Allison




IIRC didn't Ivan hit while the sat eclipse was occuring, hence the jump in the images?

Mark


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28310 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

I don't like this one. I'd like to go with what's behind door #3, please!

I'm in SW Florida and am planning to keep the lanai furniture and stuff inside a while longer.




Door # 3 may be worse. If we can keep Jeanne along the coast of Hisp and Cuba at least she won't grow to a monster.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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TestPilot
Unregistered




Re: Pensacola? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #28311 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:11 PM

Quote:

www.foxnews.com

The pic is AP copyrighted so I don't know if I can paste it.




The pic is in the pubic domain once published or broadcast. As long as it appears on a free info site (like this) there is no problem. Always a good idea to credit the publisher. AP tends to chase folks that profit from their work.


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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28312 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:13 PM

OK, I anticipated Jeanne. I'm anticipating "Karl". But what is this about a possible "Lisa"?! For Pete's sake! There is no rest for the weary. What happens in December that brings an end to this"?

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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Ivan Sat Loops [Re: PFSThunder]
      #28313 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:14 PM

Quote:

The missing loops has to do with the eclipse and the satelites not taking photos for about 2 hours. It has been explained in more detail on previous posts.




Oohhh.... ok....

I had briefly looked back at some previous posts, but didn't see anything about it... Thanks for clearing that up!

Allison


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne [Re: GaryC]
      #28314 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:16 PM

I think that's what they are doing, I'll have to check back on them again but I think you're right.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Jeanne [Re: HMY]
      #28315 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:18 PM

I am Lisa... we are generally nice people

ok trying to make some humor

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


Edited by trinibaje (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:19 PM)


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #28316 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:20 PM

Quote:

For Florida's sake I hope she doesn't take Accuweather's path.


Thanks for your post. Potential for big long term forecast error here. Ultimately, we know Jeanne will take her own path, but at least NHC is usually the most accurate.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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