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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne [Re: richisurfs]
      #28337 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:48 PM

>>> You're right Phil

No there's a phrase I'm NOT used to hearing

Lets just say that the NHC have done a very good job with their calls at 72 hours (3 days)...and they are the ONLY one to trust for a forecast. As scottsvb reminds us a true forecast is really only out to 72 hrs...anything beyond that is speculation.

wonder if rick still has a boat to go home to? If you're out there rick...hope everything turned out OK...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28338 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:49 PM

Quote:

Do you know how many models there actually are.?..ever count all the strands of "spaghetti"?
There are as many models probably as registered uses on this forum...none of them are actually perfectly correct at any time and the NHC uses a consensus of them to forecast (there is even a concensus model and their track is usually close to that).
This forum serves a similar function to the models. From an admittedly mostly amatuer but somewhat knowledgable group of participants we too generate a sense of consensus about what we see that guides us into some certainty about what will happen...We do pretty good... many here accurately had Charley, Frances and "Ivan the terrible" too Not everybody agreed but the correct ideas were out there for us all to discuss.
We are doing it by good old fashioned observation of the weather from the Sats etc...this is what makes this forum so much fun. We are not all right or any one of us totally right at any one time but out of all this chatter some ideas of some credibllity emerge, that I rely upon.
Good Job!




There are 30 or 40 models that I am aware of used in the North America hurricane realm. There are probably more. Keep in mind that many of them are based on other models, with somebody tweaking it in an attempt to get better. The GFS is used as a base for several of them.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28340 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM

I agree! we have got to separate the media hype from what the actual facts are. I am convinced they just want their big over sensationalized story. Otherwise, why would MSNBC find some meteorolist in College Park, PA showing one model that had Jeanne coming into Florida as if it was written in stone? My wife saw this two times. HYPE...I hate the media coverage for the most part. Because I think their main agenda is their story. i guess I have too many opinions but whatever.HaHa

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 12:57 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 823
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Londovir]
      #28341 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:55 PM

Once the NHC reinitialized Ivan after it had continued wes for two days longer than predicted it nailed it on the 5 day.
What happened in the earlier predictions was, as Bastardi argues, the models faild to factor the vigorous ULL in the mid atlantic unti lit had already kicked the ridge controlling Ivan pretty hard to the SW. I took tow days for the effect of that to really register and by then it had spent itself and lifted out to the north, thus making the 5 day run starting on Sat evening reliable.

--------------------
doug


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne - Eye? [Re: doug]
      #28343 - Thu Sep 16 2004 12:58 PM

Am I crazy? (Never mind don't answer that) It looks to me like Jeanne is getting better organized as she travels across the Dominican. There seems to be an eye opening up on the IR Sat picture. I know this is counter-intuitive, but...the wrapping seems to be improving as well.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 823
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Jeanne - Eye? [Re: StormHound]
      #28344 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:02 PM

On the visible the eye actually filled in but it is sure holding its own...good out flow and low level in flow from the SE.

--------------------
doug


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Londovir
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 94
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: StormHound]
      #28345 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:03 PM

For another interesting take on models and their future, check out this story on the Pensacola New Journal's website: Supercomputers Aid Hurricane Forecasting. It gives an interesting look at the state of modeling, what they do, and so forth. I can't say that I'm not looking forward to the Maryland model in the next year or two. The Gulfstream Doppler should do a nice job in helping to get more accurate initialization data into the model.

On a side note, and this is the computer programmer in me, I wonder if the NOAA has ever contemplated coming up with a distributed computer based model concept? With the success of things like SETI there's a huge market of computer afficionados out there who have tons of CPU cycles wasting energy. I would bet good money there's tons of people (myself whole heartedly included) who would love to donate our CPU idle time to parsing data for a distributed model system. All you'd need to do is create a thin client for computers to run, allowing them to download "wedges" of grid data for processing, and return the results to the central server. Depending on participation, you could probably jam out a model result fairly quickly. Just make it an experimental model so people don't take it as NHC gospel and it could work wonders. Heck, at USF where I go to college, they leave their lab computers on 24/7. That's hundreds of computers sitting idle, most of which are 1.5gHz+ machines. That's one college campus....

--------------------
Londovir


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Will the good news ever end? [Re: doug]
      #28346 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:06 PM

1145z Dvorak's have Jeanne at 5.0/5.0! Folks, that translates to a CAT II...even more good news is that 91L is 2.0/2.0 (which it has been thru two runs)...need to watch for the 1745z posting...

EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:08 PM)


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sprinterblue
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Pete, Fl
Re: Jeanne - Eye? [Re: StormHound]
      #28347 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM

stormhound - I agree. the latest loop does seem to show an eye reforming. Jeanne still has yet to go over the highest peaks, but she seems to be a fighter.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28348 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:10 PM

Doug, you're right. I was jittery along with everyone else. Some people have to make business decisions based on a M-F schedule. I, like you, take exception when people start blaming NHC for our inconveniences. It seems that as our society "advances," we become less and less tolerant of the "errors" in our technology, especially when it concerns something that none of us can control.
I should point out that at least one school board on the west coast of Florida decided to wait on their decision, and ended up having classes this past Monday. Unfortunately, many people from Florida voluntarily evacuated last Friday to points that are now in the path of Ivan. Go figure.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28349 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM

I understood it, but then again I've modeled chemical reactions using supercomputers for a living so I guess I have more knowledge about these things. That article on forcast models was great by the way. Thanks!

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28350 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:12 PM

Believe it or not I kinda do...Nah, not really, I'm just a surfer but i do like computer stuff

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: richisurfs]
      #28351 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:13 PM

richie...

good think Indiatlantic didn't end up IN THE ATLANTIC!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: doug]
      #28352 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:21 PM

Fort Myers News-Press

This is a link to an article in the News-Press which illustrates some of the confusion with the NHC track of Charley. First of all, the P-3 Orions weren't even flying into Charley for readings. Were there other models that took none of those "readings" into consideration when constructing their own predictions?


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28353 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if the 5PM shifts the track more to the west in keeping with the current models'forecast. No one along the SE coast should be considered out of the woods at least until Saturday night.

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:30 PM)


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28354 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM

Quote:


EDIT: Anyone besides Mike, Stormhound & Skeeter understand what Londovir just said? LOL




Sure thing

I'll translate using smaller non-technical words for the computer illiterate...
(not necessarily you, Phil - although I haven't been lurking long enough to know )


A distributed computer model would basically use thousands of personal computers to analyze pieces of the data. Because there would be so many computers working on the data and sending the results back home to NOAA, it is possible that even the most complex models could be run in minutes instead of hours.

Of course, such a system would allow the models to become increasingly more complex (and hopefully more accurate). As the popularity of the program would soar, hundreds of thousands or even millions of folks would help get really complex computer models done quickly.

This would (in theory) mean greater understanding and therefore better forecasting .

I have a cluster I'd offer to the cause if such a creature is ever created

Edited by tpratch (Thu Sep 16 2004 01:30 PM)


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28355 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:29 PM

thanks for your post. A lot of mets (now-casting) obviously did a great job in partnership with NHC.

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: LI Phil]
      #28356 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

Phil, I know that! But I will tell you that I was out of the area when it hit and wasn't really prepared for the damage I saw when we returned. I really thought that it would be no worse than Erin in '95 but because of the duration of the storm it was considerably worse. I have a pile of what was my former landscaped yard that is about 20' long and 8' high which is nothing when you consider that people lost parts of their roofs and stuff.A guy I work with had $25000 worth of damage done to his house. A shop I sell boards to here in Indialantic lost its roof and had major flooding inside. But you know what? We actually do still have a beach and we have our boardwalk also which is amazing. So anyhow, Indialantic definetly isn't "in the Atlantic"!

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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: I-10 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #28357 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

From dani on old thread:
Quote:

With part of I-10 being gone and the fact that Hwy 90 that connects pensacola to pace in santa rosa is probably under water, there is no way to get back to our house.



Alabama SR 59 should get you to the beach. You can catch it at I-65 exit 34.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
2808'56"N; 8035'11"W


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne [Re: RevUp]
      #28358 - Thu Sep 16 2004 01:31 PM

Quote:

"I'm not saying that Jeanne will stay further south than forecast, mostly because Ivan will have an affect on her movement, and that wasn't present with the other systems."

I totally agree with you except this part. You say that Jeanne will not stay further south becasue of Ivan are you sure about that?




I probably should have worded that a bit better...lol. Depending on where Ivan tracks inland, and how strong he is while travelling, that will affect whether Jeanne makes that turn to the north or continues on a more WNW motion.

And here's my take on the local mets vs NHC forecast. Something that I learned in class at the University of Florida, and somehow managed to remember(haha), is that local news is a huge business for TV stations. Many times that's the only thing that seperates these stations with relation to local markets. I.E. no one really cares that Friends airs on NBC, but they might only watch Channel 2 for their local news/weather. And oftentimes that also carries over into the national news. So if you can capture an audience for a guaranteed amount of time, like 5:30-7pm, that's just money in the bank. I would never imply that a meteorologist would skew a forecast for ratings, but would they cover one scenario that's not as likely as others because it could potentially affect more viewers? Maybe. If a local station can keep a viewer tuned into +24hr coverage when a storm is close because that viewer enjoys the meteorologist's view, then they will be raking in tons of ad dollars. Sorry for the off topic post, just wanted to shed a little light on this topic.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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