sullynole
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the did. Do I think the makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the needs to realize that they can get hit!
almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for . Who did the media focus on with ?? New Orleans... they did learn somewhat however not to totaly focus on the worst case distaster scenario.
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John
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Brad
Unregistered
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SHPS has TD12 at 99 kt in 120 hours. If that verifies, or even comes close to verifying, the only good thing is that it might help curve it north well before the islands. May as well develop it early and curve it away early.....
I think 2 of the 4 tropical models show a N or NNW motion at 5 days (the other 2 keeping it at low latitudes - something like 9N and 14N), but obviously it's too early to tell, and the globals will probably have a better handle on it now that it's initialized as a depression.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, even here in Tallahassee, I'm dealing with the aftermath of .
Many tornado signatures on radar overnight, leading to a few warnings and a few tornadoes on the ground. None here in the city, though, but in nevertheless affecting others around here.
Lost power around 4:30am when one band passed directly over town, but then went to sleep and woke up about 8:45am to find power on. However, I was awoken for good again at about 11:30am by a phone call saying "how many times if the power going to go out?" Well, it's out until tomorrow at my place, as a wind gust knocked a large branch onto a power line, which sagged and caused a lightpost to snap in half, bringing down the post. It knocked out power and the winds are a bit too high to get up there, so they've told us we can't expect to get power back until tomorrow. Thus, anything on my end will be severely limited until then.
Just goes to show you the effects of the storm can - and do - reach far away from the center. It is an isolated event, but it only takes one branch coming down to cause something like this.
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Anon
Unregistered
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Here's a link for a current ongoing project.....
http://www.aspenleaf.com/distributed/ap-science.html#cpdn
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Clarke, What is your expert opinion on Jeanne. Honestly, we just need some waves this time and no "hits"!
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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almost every meteorologist knew it wasn't getting all the way up to tampa bay. That's one reason why had warnings up for the places far south of Tampa Bay, just as they had warnings up well east of New Orleans for .
I live in Levy county in the Big Bend area and they kept telling us practically right until the sharp turn that was headed our way right after it crossed Tampa.
Hmmm...we caught the top half of when she came through, the bottom half when Bonnie went through and was supposedly on path to us for several days...I wonder if somebody's trying to tell us something???
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The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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There's support for Bastardi from the Superensemble...the path is not entirely out of the question for Jeanne. I don't know much more than that, though, so it's going to be one to watch. In any case, models are consistent in building in a ridge in the 5-7 day time frame above Jeanne, shifting the storm back to the west...how far up the coast remains to be seen, however. current 5 day may be a bit fast.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Clark...glad to see Tally survived the storm....what are your thoughts on Jeanne? What does the Superensemle say? Do you think she will survive the DR mountains? I will patiently await your comments 
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Hi Phil and all. Made it through just fine; thanks for all of the prayers ! Thank God for that little jog to the east right before landfall (sorry P'cola) Being in west Mobile, it made things a lot better for us I'm sure. Things last night were about 1/2 as bad as I thought they would be -- I remembered Frederic being a LOT worse !! I went to bed around midnight when we lost power and actually managed to sleep through the worst of it.  Our power is, amazingly, already back on. I haven't ventured out past my street but I'll attach a few pics (unimpressive as they are). The worst damage was a neighbor's tree that just missed both his house and his car. My yard is full of tree limbs and the fence is a little wobbly, but I am truly blessed !! I haven't even looked yet to see where Jeanne is going; I'm afraid to.
Thanks again everyone for your concern and prayers. How are the rest of the Mobilians ?? Rick ? Cindy ?
Edited by mbfly (Thu Sep 16 2004 07:15 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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There are three scenarios for Jeanne:
4 models take it east of the Peninsula, get it between Cape Hatteras and Jacksonville, stall it, and move it west
JMA takes it on a Floyd track to a point east of central Florida, stalls it, and moves it SW to take it onshore near WPB
GFDL takes it N of Antilles, into Miami, and up the middle of the state, similar to King in 1950
Most of the models take TD12 out to sea, and also develop two systems behind it in 6 days
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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MBFly,
Glad you're OK...you did get lucky...rick hasn't checked back in, not sure about cindy...haven't been paying close enough attention.
Thanks for letting us know you made it thru!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Man, I really don't want to deal with that again. I hope it changes 5 days out or something. You know it really sucks to be getting back to normal only to have to possibly go thru it all over again.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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I haven't seen the Accuweather track of Jeanne...but as I noted a few days ago, this thing is likely to slow down quite a bit in a couple of days. If dissipates over land, I don't know that there will be enough of a weakness to turn the storm. A further northward component is likely, but the models I've seen keep building the ridge back in, making me wonder if we aren't going to see a recurvature motion followed by a turn westward. I haven't looked at it enough to venture a guess as to what happens, but the forecast from a couple of days ago of a weak hurricane in the central Bahamas not going anywhere fast in about 3 days (from now) looks pretty good. Where it goes from there...Bastardi may well be on to something, but we'll have to see how it plays out.
And TD 12...unless I see something quickly to change my mind, I think it might well be one for the fish. There are plenty of troughs out there to, in my opinion, keep it away from land. It won't recurve as fast as Danielle did, but a similar track isn't out of the question. But, again, I haven't had the chance to take a look at it to any large extent...and really, I wish this season would SLOW DOWN!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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At times, when the or models have come under fire, I stated that the error in the 5 day forecasts are now what the 3 day forecasts were 20 years ago. That may have been a conservative estimate.
According to this article, the average 3 day error by the has decreased 50% since 1998 alone. They do talk a little about the new Md. model also.
I will not blast the for , they had warnings up for where it hit. The media always focuses on the worst-case scenario.
In this last storm, I will not blast them for their errors due to the size/strength of the storm, and they eventually did get it right. Because it went farther west than everyone thought, that doesn't make the western-most models good at forecasting hurricanes, any more than the eastern most models bad, either. In fact, they stayed too far to the left until it was nearing the coast. The interesting thing is, if we were our parents age, (for those of us that are out of school), there were no models to criticize, therefore, no discussion. I bet they wish they had them.
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/9/16/84808.shtml
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....
Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)
Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)
It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)
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Londovir
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NWS in MLB starting to pay a little more attention to Jeanne.
"MON-THU...FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DEPENDANT UPON FUTURE MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE...THIS ONE NAMED JEANNE. SHORT RANGE MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT WNW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THIS TIME...GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK PRESENTS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR THE SE U.S. COAST NEXT WEEK AS STRONG/LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND FAR OFFSHORE...BLOCKING FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION OF HURRICANE JEANNE. 16/15Z FORECAST BRINGS OUTER TS WIND RADII THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND BRUSHING PORTIONS OF CWA COAST MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE SHOWN WITHIN 4PM ZFP/CWF PACKAGE...USERS MUST REMEMBER THAT HURRICANE FORECASTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE INHERENTLY CONTAIN LARGE ERRORS...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE."
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Thanks for this link - forgot about that project. Course, that one is trying to do a 50 year prediction. Even then, it only took them 3 months to do 880K modeled years. Since a hurricane model is only really concerned with at most a 5 day prediction (more if time allows, but errors make unusable), a similar program would be able to crank out a model analysis in no time whatsoever....
Sorry for being "wordy" when I mentioned it first time. I gotta remember this is a meteorology fan board, not a computer science one. ;-)
Oh, and as far as the security of the system, I would think it's negligible. First, somebody would have to want to hack the client to see how it crunches the numbers the NOAA sends it. Second, they'd want to bother to try and falsify the analysis their computer did. Third, it's unlikely that any falsification of the data would really change the overall model that much. True, there's some "butterfly effect" stuff going on (you know, where they say a butterfly flapping its wings over Kansas causes a typhoon someday later in the Pacific), but we're talking about thousands of data points, dropsondes, etc, and I don't think it would matter much. Plus, you call the thing experimental and leave it at that. Not like some of the loopy models this year that take storms to South America are all that useful, either. :-)
It's a shame this isn't being done, or at least, not openly publicized. I'd love to work on something like that. Actually make use of my BA in Mathematics and BS in Computer Science, instead of [shudder] teaching. :-) (Just kidding, I'd still teach, best job in the world, even if the pay is miserable and there's no respect from the students...)
You got the time, I got the beer. My email is in my profile. What I don't mention in there is my knowledge of JavaScript, ActionScript and the like. I'm a good asset because I can code well, can understand that which I cannot code and can package it in an oh-so-pretty fashion.
Off to search for open source modules
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Not slowing down it seems and we are not even into the So.Carribean season yet still getting thes African waves, second peak of season 1st week of October....think I'll just leave the boards up until December or first frost which ever comes first.
Good stuff on the models. The two days before the land fall of had it pegged, and then shifted the track west fr 48 hours. When it did The fixed on the Charlotte Harbor solution, and that seemed to jive with what the upper air as intrepreted from thw WV was telling us the shear zone was too far south to support the land fall north of Tampa.
However Punta Gorda and Ft. Myers had long been not only in the cone but also under the line and the forcast track. On the 13th of August only had about 25 miles off shore as it passed by that to me is a direct hit virtually. I don't recall thinking that had missed the mark on
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doug
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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NHC does a very good job when it really comes down to it with the landfall areas. But after a 3 day landfall forcast,,,,its forcasts are basically run by models solutions. They pretty much run off the models with some intuition of the surrounding enviroment and other data that we dont always get to see. Main thing is,,when it comes down to it on a landfall within 3 days,,they are generally correct in theyre 100 miles each side of the possible landfall.
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Spazz
Unregistered
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Without a doubt we would be in a pickle with another hit on the ol FLA coast......................I am keeping up the boards and headin out for more water and other essentials...
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