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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Intro [Re: tpratch]
      #28379 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:20 PM

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Jeanne [Re: KC]
      #28380 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:21 PM

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.

--------------------
Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
TD 12 [Re: eulogia]
      #28381 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM

TD 12 has formed in the Atlantic, first advisory 5pm EDT. And the wave behind it also forecast to develop, so TD 13 likely in a couple of days.

Edited by Jamiewx (Thu Sep 16 2004 02:26 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Worried about the opposite too [Re: Fletch]
      #28382 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM

Hearing the complaints against the NHC regarding Charley makes me wonder if we also won't start hearing complaints about the NHC about New Orleans with Ivan. People may start bashing the NHC for putting New Orleans under a Hurricane Warning when they saw very little from Ivan. I think people always tend to bash the NHC when wrong, but tend to give them little credit when correct. They have done a great job this year with 3 day forecasting.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28383 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:24 PM

Meanwhile Jeanne is forming an eye OVER the DR landmass.

Also, for those who are trying to get information on the Pensacola area...go to the WPMI NBC affiliate website:

http://www.wpmi.com/

The TV station is broadcasting live via the internet.


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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28384 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:25 PM

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28385 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:26 PM

Quote:

Sounds a little like how the media talked about New Orleans and Mobile over the last couple of days, huh? Focused so heavy on NO and then had to shuffle for Mobile.




Exactly. Mobile isn't a story. NO under 15 ft of water is.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28386 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM

Quote:

I'm really getting tired of the NHC taking heat for Charley. The bottom line is, Was there a Hurricane Warning in place? If yes, then you should expect the full brunt of the storm. The local media wanted to focus on Tampa because it would have been a huge disaster. Not that the people in the Punta Gorda area didn't suffer a disaster.




IIRC: was not the media focusing on New Orleans This time around? You'd have thought southern alabama and florida were cow pastures from the attention they received.

Mark


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Intro [Re: Fletch]
      #28387 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:28 PM

Quote:

Thanks tpratch. I appreciate the detailed answer. For the past few months I was thinking along those same lines when I got into looking at the models and how long they take to run.




Ain't no thang (as they say in the vernacular)

I'm actually enjoying a rather slack day here at the office so I've been lurking a lot more than is usual for me. Between the slow day and the fact that I actually have my power back at home - this may in fact become a regular occurance.

Oh, and call me Pratch or Tom - I figured my dad (the original Pratch) might just want to reg his name here so I left the nickname available. Yes - I realize it's all you have to go on so it's just a way to get those who read posts to know how to grab my attention in the future


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28388 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Once again, let me point out that they clearly state the margins of error in their forecasts. What was the stretch of that coast that had been put under a "hurricane warning'? I really don't believe they ever said "look out Tampa Bay because it's coming to you directly". They put up hurricane warnings that covered a way larger area then Tampa Bay. Our local Channel 9 meteorologist called Charlies turn way before the NHC did. Do I think the NHC makes mistakes? Sure..but I would only fault them for not issuing something like an emergency update rather than just waiting for their 2pm update to state the trackand intensity had changed. The bottom line is everyone in a "hurricane warning" area that is put up by the NHC needs to realize that they can get hit!

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #28389 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Even then, they are missing the big damage that occured east of Mobile.

--------------------
Jim


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne [Re: eulogia]
      #28390 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM

Quote:

My recollection as well. Not to say that many of the "news" stations don't obviously chomp at the bit when there is a chance at a big weather story. The point is that the title "National Hurricane Center" implies a certain level of expertise and care in obtaining information before diseminating it to the public. In the case of Charley, obviously, that wasn't done, since the aircraft that would have provided the most accurate information were not even being used. Not to let this lead on to government conspiracies, etc., but you certainly must be able to understand that most people realise a report given is only as good as the information it's based upon (setting aside the matter of whether the information is being interpreted correctly. In this equation, the constant can be inferred that the people at the NHC have sufficient knowlege to interpret the information they receive.) Please forgive ramblings.




I remember distictly receiving recon reports that reported winds were up to Cat 4 status just as Charley turned toward the coast. THis was a couple of hours before landfall.
The planes were flying into the storm and were reporting.

At least that's how I remember it.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Jeanne [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #28391 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:35 PM

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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robyn419
Unregistered




random question [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28392 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:36 PM

I'm a college student from IL following some of these storms and just wondering if anyone knows how wide the diameter of Ivan's eye was just before/during landfall? Any info would be appreciated!

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Jeanne [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #28393 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:42 PM

Quote:

As of 2 p.m., NHC says:
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

The watches and warnings almost always follow this step ladder effect. SE Bahamas, Central Bahamas, NW Bahamas, and of course then the Florida East Coast. Now, I am not saying this storm is going to hit Florida, but this step ladder effect almost always adds the next step we all don't want to see.




hey,

i wwas up your way on sat night of Frances. drove up from lauderdale to shoot some video. exited 95 at delray and came right up 1 all the way to west palm. it wasus in the car and a few tv trucks around and that was it. hope jeanne doesnt come your way.

later


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Couplathreethings... [Re: robyn419]
      #28394 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:46 PM

Man, step away from the computer to eat lunch and a whole bunch of new stuff comes up.

First off, for Eulogia, I'd have to check this but I believe the plane(s)? in question had mechanical trouble during Charley...I know one mission this year was aborted...memory failing...so that MIGHT have been the reason...anyone else recall that and if so was that during Charley?

Second...regarding the NO hoopla...I believe it was the mayor who ordered voluntary evac long before the NHC ever put up hurricane warnings...so don't blame the NHC for that...again, I'd have to check. Steve made sure the storm stayed away from them anyways...

Third...I believe Ivan's eye was approximately 50 miles wide at landfall, though, again, I'd have to check.

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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VandyBrad
Unregistered




Re: Will the good news ever end? [Re: Fletch]
      #28395 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:49 PM

Quote:

Could you maintain security throughout on a project like that?




Yes... Since each of the thousands/millions of computers worldwide only do work on a small parcel of data, they can't have access to the big scheme of things. Only the "mothership" computer can piece it all together.


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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce... 29.33N 83.09W
Re: Jeanne [Re: Bloodstar]
      #28396 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 PM

Hey! Watch that cow pasture remark! My husband works for a dairy farm. Frances left us a present of over 38 sink holes in their fields. One so big the owner could only decide to fence it off and use it as a new pond once it fills up from all the flooding in our area.

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
new depression [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #28397 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:53 PM

TD12 will be classified at 5 pm
12L.NONAME


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Couplathreethings... [Re: LI Phil]
      #28398 - Thu Sep 16 2004 02:54 PM

Quote:

Fourth...I was kind of being tongue-in-cheek with my anyone understand Londovir comment...I did understand most of it, although I appreciate the layman's version as well. Great idea, thou I'm sure it's not the first time something like this has been proposed...

Whew...now back to Jeanne!




I'd suspected as much - but I also figured there would be folks who hadn't a clue about things - hence my long-winded version.


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