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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28419 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 PM

I agree Mr.Spock....totally!!! How about lets take it back even further to the early 20th century when monster storms moved into Galveston TX and the Florida Keys. Most of those people probably just saw thunderstorms moving in off the ocean but the storm kept getting stronger and stronger until thousands were killed. Imagine having to deal with it on that level. We should be thankful for what we got!

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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28420 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM

Richie what intensity level do you see Jeanne coming at ECF at?

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28421 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 PM

absolutely.......think of all the lives that have been saved just by satellite technology alone, then the models.......How did we ever forecast before?

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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: LI Phil]
      #28422 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:50 PM

A tense night of watching TWC is over, and now my family sits and waits for word on the fate of our apartment. We live in the Cayo Grande Apartments in Navarre. These are the same apartments that TWC crew in Fort Walton stayed at, only our comlex is much closer to Pensacola, and just across the street from Santa Rosa Bay/Navarre Beach. Based on the coverage we've seen in surrounding areas, we're preparing ourselves for the worst.

I want to thank all of the mods and members on this board. I've learned a (heck) of a lot from you folks. And if anyone in the Navarre area has any news, I'd be greatful if you could pass it along!


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Spazz]
      #28423 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:53 PM

I haven't a clue. You should ask one of the more qualified posters on here right now...i.e Clark, Mr Spock or whoever else might be on at this time. They couuld help you witth that question way more than I could.

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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28424 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:55 PM

I bet we both want to know since your locale is on the coast...............would be nice to get lucky as we did with Isabel but not counting on it.

So putting it out there to the resident Mets..............what are we looking at in EC Florida?


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: Spazz]
      #28425 - Thu Sep 16 2004 03:59 PM

Sure do want to know but once again it's going to be the old wait and see game. I hate that part.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28426 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:01 PM

I don't have a clue right now, and the circulation is on the coast, and isn't acting like it. I never actually never tried intensity forecasts before.
If it doesn't get off the coast soon, it may be inhibited, but it just hasn't hurt it.
By the way, P.R. is still getting hammered by Jeanne's convective tail.


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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28427 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:03 PM

Yeah sure bites the big one......................would be nice to not have yet another weekend jacked up by these thing dingies.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Hi Y'all from Mobile !! [Re: Kal]
      #28428 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:04 PM

TD 12 forms, this one I think will be a fish spinner, I mean it has that TUTT up there in the north Atlantic and it gives me no reason why it wouldn't be a fish spinner. Sorry if this was already said haven't had time to read all the posts. Anyway the Gobal models are breaking down the ridge by Japan, that could be a signal that these New England highs will start to die and the pattern will flip. The PNA is forecasted to go positive while the NAO is forecasted to become netural; that should cause a heat streak in the northeast but nothing else. I'm surprised that TD 12 formed so quick, they usually wait till they enter the Leeward Islands. Hopefully this storm will be a Danielle and we won't have to worry about it. There's just to many storms forming, by the time you forecast the one you got two others waiting. Back to the books, stupid math report

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: MrSpock]
      #28429 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:09 PM

I just saw Joe Bastardi on Fox News with Sheppard Smith and he had his track up there with it running over Florida into the Gulf again. I don't want to beat a dead horse here again but there is just something about a guy putting his track up on national tv and basically disregarding what the NHC's is saying. It just really irritates me. I know that the potential for him to be correct is there and the NHC's future forecast may end up like his but still......He did make a good point about it going in between Frances path and Ivan's path where the water is still warmer because it hasn't been churned up. With all that being said , he still didn't seem REAL confident in the track after 5 days. He did say he's 90% sure it will hit the US.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28430 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM

I agree, and he ought to put a disclaimer that it is THEIR opinion, and not that of the NHC. Up here, we had a local news station totally blow a forecast and take credit for getting it right just before it happened.......The Ratings Game

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Spazz
Unregistered




Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28431 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:14 PM

Count me in on preppin for this scenario dude....................at this rate we are sure to be underwater by season's end.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
model performance [Re: scottsvb]
      #28432 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:15 PM

11 days ago I posted on Storm2k , in a forum calling for people to make their predictions as to where they thought Ivan would go, that I thought the storm might threaten the New Orleans area, but I was really leaning towards hiting the Mobile area and maybe 25 miles to the east of Mobile... I think I might have nailed this one.... and one of the biases for that prediction was the model run of the Canadian at the time, which as leaning left with each and every run... so I went with it, and adjusted it somewhat to the right, alittle, as influenced by some other models.... is this more guesscasting then forecasting... naw, because I think they are basically the same provided you have some kind of scientific rationale for your prediction... now I'm not sure how far Ivan's eye went east of Mobile, but I bet is darn close to 25 miles... approximately 11-12 days out on Ivan (not sure exact time period but close enough) the CMC outperformed all other models.... period.... including the FSU SE... my humble opinion only... another note, if my memory does not fail me, the CMC was one of the few models 10 days out or so that took Frances across SE Florida into the GOM....

I think I might start paying attention to what the CMC says on this here Ms Jeanne too....

My wife works for MS Power, she has reports that their sister company, Fl Power has taken a tremendous hit.... employees injuried in their control rooms when the windows blew out, tremendout damage to their facilities.... boy, looks like this area could be without power for a very very long time.....


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28433 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:17 PM

Truth be told, I don't have a clue either. MrSpock has it right with the circulation over land and Puerto Rico getting lashed by the trailing band.

The ultimately intensity will likely be controlled largely by the recovery of the sea surface temperatures through the Bahamas after Frances and how fast this storm is moving. There is noticeably cooler water over the path Frances took, and this storm isn't moving so fast. Couple the small circulation with cooler water and slower motion and I would tend to think only modest strengthening in the 1-4 day period is most likely, but this storm seems to be getting better organized over land, may well not track over the same waters as Frances did, and this season has been anything but predictable.

I would go with the NHC's forecast for now, noting that if anything, I think at later periods it might be a slight bit on the high side. But better prepared than anything.

I went to try to sit in on the 4pm conference call, but the NWS guys here are pretty busy with Ivan still -- not to mention Jeanne -- so I decided it'd be best not to for now. We'll all know soon enough what the 5pm brings.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
JB [Re: Spazz]
      #28434 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:21 PM

I give Joe B a lot of credit for his forecasts, he had it right with Ivan. Agree on the disclaimer part, but Joe is not really disagreeing with NHC, his track is within NHC's cone of error. And the NHC has shifted their track a little to the south and west of what they had yesterday.

Although the guys at the NHC are specialists in what they do, even they had to be taught by a college professor at some point, so there are forecasters out there just as good as those at the NHC in my opinion.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: article on new models, and improved forecasting. [Re: richisurfs]
      #28435 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:25 PM

It's one of the big concerns in meteorology and part of the on-going fight between the government/academic and commercial groups in meteorology. The latter think, as a whole, that the government and academic institutions should cease to provide forecasts and information, leaving everything to the commerical, for-profit sector. This would lead to academia developing tools for companies and the government essentially becoming a data source and nothing more...as well as to increased costs for weather forecasts for the general public. Obviously, the government/academic groups disagree with that. Those on the commercial end of things may not have an extreme a viewpoint as presented here, but it's alnog those lines.

As such though, it does not surprise me that Accuweather - one of the big proponents of the change - is more inclined to present their own forecast rather than the NHCs. If anything, they are good businessmen; weathermen, though, that's another story. The NHC official is the track everyone should go off of and, since they are set up as THE authority, work should be done cooperatively to improve these forecasts. It's fine to note the cone of uncertainty, some of the players that may cause the storm to do this, that, or the other...but don't present your own forecast as perhaps being the official one.

Just a pet peeve of mine.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: model performance [Re: Frank P]
      #28436 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

AVN takes Jeanne towards NC and recurves it SW into Jacksonville in 144 hours; also has TD12 recurving with another system to the SE following a similar course

CMC has Jeanne NE of teh Bahamas in 72 hours

NOGAPS takes Jeanne to NC and moves west to hit northern SC in 120 hours; UKMET follows a similar course


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: JB [Re: Jamiewx]
      #28437 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

I agree but I will say this though...his path down the middle of the cone is not the same as the NHC's so in a sense I feel he is somewhat in disagreement with them. Ok, I really don't know anything this but wouldn't you think that the NHC is putting together the thoughts of a bunch of good forecasters and then coming up with a consensus for their best prediction for the path of a storm?This is as opposed to one guy doing most of the interpreting by himself? Like I said I'm clueless as to how the NHC really works. I just thought I would throw that out there.

Edited by richisurfs (Thu Sep 16 2004 04:33 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: model performance [Re: Frank P]
      #28438 - Thu Sep 16 2004 04:30 PM

CMC 12Z takes Jeanne through the Bahamas and turns it North and out to sea...It takes Ivan remenants off the VA coast and rapidly NE in to the ATL...no stalling around...

--------------------
doug


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