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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29142 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:58 PM

really it did work for me, it doesn't have a "www" at the front or a ".com" at the back. I got it from going to www.ask.com and put in binary tropical systems, the first thing was the one link I posted, not much more about it.

See above post...shaggy dude took care of it...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 18 2004 07:59 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29143 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:05 PM

Oh okay, apparently there are two types of binary interaction CA and CAD, seems very complicated but I bet if it was explained in a viusal manner then I could understand it better. Anyway, it's gives you the speration for the binary interaction and everything, those models must have that info put in them too. Maybe that's the reason why some model's have Jeanne doing loops and some models don't or didn't (I should say) is because of the research and accuracy of this infomation. Very interesting.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29144 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:05 PM

here is something:

"Some of the most intense tropical cyclones exhibit concentric eye walls, two or more eye wall structures centered at the circulation center of the storm. Just as the inner eye wall forms, convection surrounding the eye wall can become organized into distinct rings. Eventually, the inner eye begins to feel the effects of the subsidence resulting from the outer eye wall, and the inner eye wall weakens, to be replaced by the outer eye wall. The pressure rises due to the destruction of the inner eye wall are usually more rapid than the pressure falls due to the intensification of the outer eye wall, and the cyclone itself weakens for a short period of time."
(Willoughby et al. 1982,Willoughby 1990a )


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Waiting on JB [Re: Keith234]
      #29145 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:07 PM

Got "we report you decide" on right now, eagerly awaiting the JB appearance. Quite frankly I never watch these shows and here's why:

They just announced today is the anniversary of the death of Jimi Hendrix at age 28. Well, he died at the age of 27. How difficult is it to check facts? Either that, or someone needs to take math class all over again.

One of the promos also made reference to Jeanne, and pronounced it Genie...didn't we decide it was pronounced "Jean" three or four days ago?

JB better be on, that's all I can say.

Sorry ED, but this just bugged the everliving --- out of me!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29146 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:10 PM

Indeed, I just wish there are some examples and statistics from the atlantic, as well as more detail. Still searching for something that would suffice.

- Kent, the quote you had is more of a regeneration, shedding skin type situation, wheras the binary circulation phenomenon is like twins. Then again, if you weren't talking about that situation, I apologize.

Edited by ShaggyDude (Sat Sep 18 2004 08:14 PM)


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29148 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:23 PM

no you are right. I am just finding stuff on google the last one I posted was definately right though.
(somehow its posted on another board called storms in other basins)
and here is a link about Hurricane Edna She had two eyes hit in different areas.
first a quote:
"The eye of the storm split into two sections. One eye was said to be over Cape Cod near Brewster, while the other was said to be northeast of Provincetown. Record pressure readings at Truro (28.29") and Nantucket (28.18") supported the presence of the two eyes as they are over 60 miles apart."

Can you imagine?

http://www.pivot.net/~cotterly/edna.htm

Edited by Kent (Sat Sep 18 2004 08:27 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Kent]
      #29150 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:27 PM

Maybe it's just a huge eye trying to form or maybe a concentric eyewall cycle?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29151 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:30 PM

Yeah, I have a feeling it's just an extremely large eyewall, as 60 miles apart isn't too big a difference for some of the larger hurricanes that make their way towards New England. Then again, just a gut feeling.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JB? [Re: Keith234]
      #29153 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:31 PM

Sounds like JB will be making that appearance within the next few minutes on Fox News Channel.

Will be interested to see if it comes to fruition...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29154 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:36 PM

JB was very conservative with Jeanne - exactly the same as the NHC.

Edited by ShaggyDude (Sat Sep 18 2004 08:43 PM)


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29155 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:37 PM

Oy Gevalt!

Ivan coming back and re-forming in the Central Gulf??????

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: JB? [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #29156 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:41 PM

Anyone else just see JB? It's one thing to make a crow munching forecast on your own website, quite another on national tv...

Notice he backed off on Jeanne...heh

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: JB? [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #29157 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:43 PM

Now I remember why I don't watch major media on weather events. Whoever this anchor is, he has no clue about what questions he is asking about.

JB gave a pretty straight forward comment. Jeanne is in line with NHC and he talked about his Ivan theory back in the gulf. DId not have a chance to go further becuase of time and talking head blabbering.

--------------------
Jim


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Karl and Possible Future Lisa [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29158 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:44 PM Attachment (134 downloads)

Here's a nice image of both systems off of Africa

--Lou


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29159 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:44 PM

I saw him, I respect him, but I still follow what I follow.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29160 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:46 PM

Quote:

Anyone else just see JB? It's one thing to make a crow munching forecast on your own website, quite another on national tv...

Notice he backed off on Jeanne...heh




He was calling for the loop all day. Not sure he really backed off. I'm not sure who is in charge of graphics at Accuweather though. Truthfully, it has never been JB's track. He was calling for a Florida Straits shot most of the time. I think someone else actually sets the graphic tracks.

Just looked at Accuweathers new track. Looks like a druken sailor. Did not get the impression that was the track JB was talking about.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 18 2004 08:49 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: JB? [Re: Rasvar]
      #29161 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:48 PM

Imagine working with him!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29162 - Sat Sep 18 2004 08:51 PM

I'm going to see it at 10 because I have DirectTV and the Fox 5 news show that he's on is showing at a different time, don't ask me why.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Sat Sep 18 2004 08:55 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: JB? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29164 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:07 PM

I thought JB handled it well. He noticed when John K. was running to hard without the football there, and calmed it down.

I feel like I have seen JB this week more than my wife. Of course, the answer would be to turn off the tv.

Jeanne still doesn't look that good to me. I wonder what the 11 PM will look like? For those who are wondering, the GFS has the thing moving north for a while, looping, then eventually moving it back to the north and northeast well offshore. Reliability is not very good that far out, especially when a model tries to forecast a loop, but that is the only model I really view that goes out 16 days.

Edit for this:
I wonder if Ivan did happen to go back into the Gulf, and something did spin up, if it would have a different name?

Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 18 2004 09:12 PM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #29165 - Sat Sep 18 2004 09:08 PM

Jeanne seems to be moving to the NNE, just maybe that the cold front will push her to the northeast before the high moving down to block Jeanne north track, wait and see, maybe that is the reasons models are having a hard time with this one.

Dave


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