Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Barry producing heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes and fooding from upper TX coast to W FL panhandle and points north
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Barry) , Major: 278 (Michael) Florida - Any: 278 (Michael) Major: 278 (Michael)
35.1N 93.4W
Wind: 25MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
N at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4148
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne Watch
      #29604 - Wed Sep 22 2004 09:21 AM

Hurricane Jeanne, after devastating Haiti and killing hundreds is still sitting in the Atlantic, being very predictably erratic (to put it kindly).



A general westward motion is expected to begin eventually which may put some areas along the US east coast under watch. Keep an eye on Jeanne.

Karl is the fish spinner, moving its way up through the central Atlantic.

Lisa is another erratic storm, it is so small it may be overtaken by the disturbance that is behind it, which will probably become a depression today or tomorrow. Lisa's current movement is slow, and probably will slow down more if it doesnít get absorbed by the other system first.

The last system being watched is the low in the Gulf, a spin off of Ivan, which will have trouble organizing but still needs watching.

Itís a very active day in the tropics, with several drunk systems in the Atlantic, it will be a cautious watch for the next few days, especially on Jeanne.


Event Related Links
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time

General Links

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #29607 - Wed Sep 22 2004 09:43 AM

honestly dont think she is being very erratic, think she is being very extremely predictable... it was predicted she would loop and now she is...

which is pretty common for storms in that region this time of year when the steering currents sort of "bomb out" and then they usually curve back out to sea.. often missing the carolinas but not always

have a good day everyone, will have to watch her

very cloudy and rainy still in miami.. feels like a mini trogh is hanging here
bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
ANDREW ANYONE??? [Re: MikeC]
      #29609 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 AM

I think the models will continue more west but not much, thing is still will it make it too the gulf??? I think it will affect florida with TS winds at the least, if not its a bust forecast but Im not 100% sure if it will get to 81W and south of 29N. Anyways my forecast has it coming to florida still over the last many days. Just was delayed a couple days due to Hispaniola interaction and shear (though if you look back on my posts when Jeanne even formed I said this would happen) though more then I thought. Anyways everyone is saying Betsy or another storm,.,,,,but really folks I posted a week ago or so,,,,Andrew anyone??? Im sure the regulars on here remember that post and this is where roughly he went N to this location alot people said he would go out to sea but they feared the ridge building into the western atlantic,,,,he turned south for a day then w and even wsw thru Homestead. Now will this get as strong as Andrew?,,,,NO. Reason really wont be too much the shear but the dry air should keep this around 105-120mph. I expect strengthning up to a Cat 3 just prior to landfall as she will encounter warm SSTs near the cape with the gulf stream. I think the ridge will hold her on a w course alittle longer cause it will be alittle stronger then forecasted and also resulting in a weakning trough running into the ridge. Jeanne will find a weakness though over the weekend and get pulled up but it might get stuck while the weak trough exits and a reinforcing ridge developing over the great lakes moves easterward to build back over the region. All this now is past 5 days so I wont say this will happen but its there. Anyways currently she has begun her wobbles to the sw and will get close to 25.5N and then head west. Hurricane watches for the central and northern bahamas will be issued by tomorrow morning but maybe as early as 11pm tonight.,,,(40%) on tonight.
With the rest of the Atlantic,, Karl will move N or then NNW then go back N and NE,,, never getting past 52w. Lisa will also stay way east of the Lesser Antillies and might not get past 55W. System behind that might get closer to 20N and 60 W by the weekend but anything now moving WNW or NW east of 65W and north of 15 will have almost a 10% chance of ever making it to the U.S. They will encounter the westerlys that dive down to 20-25N more often pulling the system northward and also causeing shear ( not good for tropical development). Basically its under 15N moving thru the carribean then heading up to threaten the central or eastern gulf. Son of Ivan could still make it to a TS. Hard to tell if it will and if it will, then pull south near the Texas coast or move inland.Thing is there is a seasonal upper ridge over Mexico that might pulll it down to the bay of campeache. I do feel in about 10-14days we will find something trying to develop down there or in the sw carribean as a strong trough develops over the eastern U.S. Deep carribean moisture will combine with possible remenents of TD14? or a tropical wave and start to form a depression. Not saying this will happen but the pattern recognition is there over the 10-14 day period and NO,,no models are showing this. I dont go by the models all the time cause they will change from run to run. Anyways, Illl post more later. scottsvb


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: scottsvb]
      #29611 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:13 AM

does anyone else see a well defined LLC to the east of 93L?
(look on the last few frames; you can also see Lisa to the west being sheared)
93L

Also, there are TS winds with the Ivan remnamts, all they need to do is close off the center for us to have 4 named storms


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MO stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: Rabbit]
      #29613 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 AM

I have not seen rotation or an LCC on the son of Ivan this morning...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: MO stormspotter]
      #29614 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:24 AM

94L
look closely to the southwest of the convection--the circulation is there, and may close off by tomorrow


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Unplugged Pig
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: Rabbit]
      #29615 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 AM

Try it on the visible loop

Steve


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: Unplugged Pig]
      #29617 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:29 AM

either way, looks better than it did last night

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Watch [Re: Rabbit]
      #29619 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:33 AM

I see it now. I wonder if there is any chance at all that that the energy from this system might somehow make it to the midwest. We DESPERATLY need rain in Missouri.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Jeanne at 11 [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #29620 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:42 AM

No major change:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: Ed in Va]
      #29621 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:44 AM

Could somone please give me the website where I can see the t-numbers assigned to the Altantic Systems?

I'm looking to see if any have been assigned to 94L?

Thanks,
ticka1

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: ticka1]
      #29622 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:48 AM

If anything, Lisa seems to be rotating around the disturbance to the east

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: ticka1]
      #29623 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:51 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: LI Phil]
      #29624 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:52 AM

22/1145 UTC 26.3N 87.1W T1.5/1.5 94
22/1145 UTC 11.8N 34.8W T1.5/1.5 93
22/1145 UTC 26.1N 49.1W T4.5/5.0 KARL
22/1145 UTC 14.1N 41.1W T3.0/3.5 LISA
22/1145 UTC 26.5N 68.6W T5.0/5.0 JEANNE

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: LI Phil]
      #29625 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:54 AM

LI Phil - has anyone told you - your the best!!!!!!

Thank you.

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: T-numbers on 94L [Re: ticka1]
      #29626 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:55 AM

No, thank you!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
94L [Re: LI Phil]
      #29627 - Wed Sep 22 2004 10:56 AM

It looks like it is trying to spin up. Just starting to see a little more cloud cover around the center. If it does spin up into a depression, and that is a BIG IF, it will take a while and that may be the best it can do.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 94L [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29628 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:00 AM

Itll be a storm if it closes off
Scatterometer from 7 am, when it was weaker--note the large area of 45 knot winds (50 mph)
if it closes off, I am guessing it will at very least be a 40 mph TS
trying to figure out why 93L hasnt been upgraded yet
maybe at 5pm
93L
you can see a bit of an LLC to the east of the main ball of convection, and note weakening Lisa to the west


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
TX bound Shawn?? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29629 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:01 AM

Yo Shawn, if the shear would let up this thing might take take off... and it should head basically towards SE TX over time I would imagine... maybe you'll get a few feeder bands after all...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
Re: 94L [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29630 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:03 AM

Quote:

It looks like it is trying to spin up. Just starting to see a little more cloud cover around the center. If it does spin up into a depression, and that is a BIG IF, it will take a while and that may be the best it can do.




SoonerShawn - where to you think 94L will go? The Houston/Galveston area. I think you are right if it does anything it will just be a TD - maybe a named storm if its a slow mover. But we do need the rain here in Baytown.

Ticka1

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 85 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 66968

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center