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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30001 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:25 PM

whats the answer for the poor bastid? He is a met huh?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: 52255225]
      #30003 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:29 PM

Oh well I just have a degree in met, worked part time at the NWS, but I do other things. Pro? No,,,, I just love hurricane season and winter storm season my whole life. I also get some data that only the mets,NWS and others get that I put into my forcasts, but also I dont get everything. Anyways with Jeanne I think the 25.5-26N benchmark on that for the next 48hrs with a gradual turn to the wnw around the bahamas and right now,,cant say into florida or hug the coastline,,,,still going over new data and will for next 12 hrs.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:31 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Brett]
      #30004 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:30 PM

Right now, the ridge looks pretty strong to me. Without any change in the ridge, I would expect it to drop down towards South Florida. The fly in the ointment is what happens to the ridge beyond 48 hours. I would not be surprised to see the WSW motion continue for another 12 hours before it goes more westerly.

--------------------
Jim


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Steve Hirschb..
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Joe]
      #30005 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:30 PM

Joe you hit it on the head. They're going to wait for 1 or two more model runs to see if there's consistency. WHy panic burnt out Floridians if she stays offshore. Avila will leave this call for the next shift. THis is definitely a nail biter. Anyone see any new GFS runs (0Z)? Hopefully she will stay offshore and just brush the coast at worst. But I don't like the trend. This definitely bears watching. Avila loves to leave us hanging. His comment that Florida really needs to watch this closely spooks me. I think his gut is telling him its a FL. I don't know if I agree with the intensification though. Lots of dry air with this high pressure. Maybe he sees something we don't. Cheers!!

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30006 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:30 PM

That is true, that is why I always say it pays to be careful to look at things in the 6z and 18Z runs-there is no new upper air data to be input at that time. The off-time runs may best be described as updating from the on-time runs.
In winter storm forecasting, you will often read the writer of the discussion say he wants to wait for the 12Z or 0z before making big changes to a forecast.
There are SOME times, however, that those off-runs do pick up on something and start a trend that verifies. The most recent example is with Ivan. I believe it was the 18Z GFS that showed Ivan getting picked up by the trof and not being stuck in one spot.


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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Brett]
      #30007 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:30 PM

If that is so then why doesn't the NHC reflect changes like that in their tracks?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: 52255225]
      #30008 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:31 PM

Yes he is, and while he may have a hard time admitting when he misses a call, he has shown me some remarkable abilities this season; certainly better than NHC....

Long time posters/lurkers know Scottsvb has taken his fair share of abuse regarding both his qualifications as a met and his forecasts...he shut my pie hole up recently and I would listen to him if I were in his forecast area...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Jeanne track [Re: LI Phil]
      #30009 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:31 PM

Modified wind field (to scale) to show off shore affect-



Full size available at www.skeetobite.com/weather


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Steve Hirschb..]
      #30010 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:33 PM

I agree Steve. No matter how poorly the GFS has performed all season, he can't deny the fact that the earlier runs of the GFS, GFDL and NOGAPS look mighty bad for north of Palm Beach. And the continued sw movement is disconcerting to say the least.

--------------------
South Florida


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30011 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:34 PM

Thanks! Anxious to hear your next post, will check in the A.M.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne track [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30012 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:36 PM

Your a great guy Phil,,,,just people will critize people like Jason, JB, Clark, other mets or I if we give out a forcast more then 3 or even 5 days and we are wrong. Thing is after really 3 days anything really can change. We try our best togo out to 5 days and that is still roughly a thoughtful guess. Basically if anyone really wants us to give out more then a 3 day forecast and we are wrong,,,,then hey I look at it as we are human and we cant control what the weather patterns offer us at the time of our judgement.

Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:37 PM)


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Mooshie-SC]
      #30013 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:37 PM

Mooshie, take a look at Steve's post above. Although the models have been trending west, there is still a definite possibility it will stay just off the coast and turn towards the Carolinas. He seems to want to leave the call to the morning crew. Also, like it or not, every mile of hurricane warning put into effect costs the local and state government $1 million in personnel, services, and other costs...so unfortunately, there is a monetary factor as well.

But I agree. If the models show it further west, then move it west.

--------------------
South Florida


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #30014 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:38 PM

Quote:

the season of the witch




Halloween III

Jason/Ivan never dies he just keeps coming back...

'shana

So what does one do with bonus points?


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: Brett]
      #30015 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:40 PM

One thing to remember is that watches and warnings for Florida are not an issue at this point. Really suppose to be within 48 hours or so of landfall before watches go up. I would suspect that the earliest a watch could be required would be tomorrow night.

--------------------
Jim


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30016 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:41 PM

Quote:

Ricreig ala Andrew is where it went from the postion of 28N and 67.5W close to Andrew then south then west to near miami. I said this will do the same up to landfall or near landfall but 150miles north of there.Also said wasnt sure if it will hug the coast or move across after that. So I didnt say it will cross the state like Andrew, but it could. Right now Im looking at new data and model runs to give a landfall (if any) by tomorrow midday.


At 62, please allow me a little senility...I was working from memory but I equated 'ala Andrew' as implying a similar track. I wasn't seeing the similarity up to the coast line of Florida then a turn, albeit 150 miles north of the MIA area. That clarified, you and I are in substantially similar mind-sets. I am not a serious amateur forecaster with your skills so I feel good that I'm even in your ballpark, forecastwise. While I teach aviation weather, that is nowhere near the skills needed to make tropical weather forecasts. Just enough to keep my student pilots weather-savvy enough to avoid flying into a thunderstorm or squall line. But, in my lifetime, I've seen a lot of weather and through observation more than education, I do often form correct, or nearly so, opinions as to what is likely to happen. This season has not helped my reputation of making good forecasts regarding these storms, but it has helped me make some good decisions about getting out of Dodge in a timely manner this season. Keep up the good work Scott, you give this site (along with a notable few others) a real good reputation for making good forecasts. Often as good as the pros, occasionally better. A big differance between the more weather literate of our members, unlike most of the NHC forecasters (maybe Stewart excepted) is that your and their forecasts explain *why* it will likely happen. The NHC and most of the pros just say 'this is the way it will be'. Jason, as a pro, and a valuable member of this forum, does a good job with the 'why'....when he has time and isn't ducking tornados. Again, keep up the good work....right or wrong, you are an asset to this forum. Thankfully, you are quite often right.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: 52255225]
      #30017 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:41 PM

Bed before 11? I'm lucky if I see it before 1AM..lol. Oh well makes checking the 11pm, and 2am intermediates, that much easier.

Anyway, even as of the 5pm discussion on Jeanne the farthest south they had her tracking was around 25.9N. Here it is 11pm and she's gone all the way to 25.6N. However, I think she's actually stayed a bit further east than had been forecast. On the earlier discussions she was pegged to cross 26.3N at 68.8W, she passed at 68.5W. 26.1N was supposed to be 69.5/70.5W and in reality it was 69.0. The question will be how fast is she going to make that curve around to the north. A bit faster and she misses Florida. A bit slower and she scrapes the coast or heads inland a ways.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: ShanaTX]
      #30018 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:42 PM

Sure seems that way! I would say stranger things have happened but I dont recall anything stranger ever happening.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: AgentB]
      #30019 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:44 PM

Ricreig,,I think thats great what you do. There are better forecasters then me out there. I get storms wrong and learn from them,,heheheh. Anyways keep up the great work you do also.

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Jeanne track [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30020 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:46 PM

Thanks Skeetobite, now I can get some sleep....till about 5 am ::)

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Jeanne better turn ... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30021 - Wed Sep 22 2004 11:47 PM

Scott, what models are you waiting for in terms of landfall? Which ones do you place most emphasis on? The FSU superensemble, apparently, has been predicting a central florida hit for its last few runs.

--------------------
South Florida


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