MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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11PM Update
The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models.
9PM
Ivan to be a tropical storm at 11PM EDT advisory...
Karl is still spinning in the atlantic and Lisa is about dead due to what will probably be our next tropical depression behind kt.
Original Update
Amazingly, has reformed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico nearly a week after it landfalled in the Florida Panhandle / Alabama coast. Which iis up there on my amazing scale. This year is turning out to be the most interesting track years I have ever seen.
Do not focus on exact track of path
Thanks to
The regenerated is forecast to head toward the Texas coast as a minimal tropical storm. It's center is exposed now, so I think it will remain weak.
Jeanne is starting to make its move, and may be close to the US coastline later this weekend. It's prudent to watch now, especially in the Carolinasl, but as it nears the Bahamas it will be prudent that everyone along the east coast watches it. It seems to be getting stronger tonight.
Event Related Links
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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could this season get any weirder??
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Redbird
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Now you know that is tempting the fates to show us just how weird it can get. LOL
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teal61
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.
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LI Phil
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I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name ...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The problem is that the way is right now all the convection is to the north of the actual center. This means if it goes right over you there won't be much rain.
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danielw
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I was hoping they would change his name. -a/ a would be semi-appropriate.
I wouldn't wish for rain from this guy. He puts out an awful lot of rain in a hurry.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I agree Phil. it will only remind and confuse people.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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However, there is reasoning....read Avilia's disco (which is forthcoming)...
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Jason Kelley
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Quote:
Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.
If it stays on the current track, I'll be on the dry side...
I'm not trying to wishcast or anything, but I do hope I get some rain out of this.... 
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Allison
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LI Phil
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I may go LOOPY pretty soon. Jeanne performing her loop and now has just completed the mother of all loops. What's next?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
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Don't ask! They resumed the numbering on the statements !!!
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:12 PM)
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Redbird
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Fruit Loops not just for breakfast anymore.............LOL
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Ricreig
User
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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name ...
What does this do to your season numbers foreczst? It *is* a named storm, possibly TS, but it isn't a *new* named storm, or is ti?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
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I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. is still .
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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From Special Discussion No. 67 referenced by Jason...
after considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of the
demise of ...in the midst of a low-pressure and surface frontal
system over the eastern United States...the National Hurricane
Center has decided to call the tropical cyclone now over the Gulf
of Mexico Tropical Depression . While debate will surely
continue here and elsewhere...this decision was based primarily on
the reasonable continuity observed in the analysis of the surface
and low-level circulation....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
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Allison
Edited by Allison (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:17 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. is still .
I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way
Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Quote:
Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/09/22/plane.diverted.stevens/index.html
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Allison
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richg
Registered User
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Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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I mostly just read the posts here but I can't resist a trivia question...the answer would be Cat Stevens!
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Justin in Miami
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/850_su_loop.shtml
I can't wait until the other model runs come in later tonight. Hmm.
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LI Phil
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I'll give you BOTH bonus points!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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troy
Unregistered
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weird...yesterday on Fox 35 in Orlando during one of the morning weather updates a person from was on the phone with Jim Van Fleet and that person mentioned it woulnt be named if it reformed
I guess they did further research analysis and changed their mind...how cruel it would be if was headed right at tha Panhandle area again though
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troy
Unregistered
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Peace Train///Hurricane Train...coinicidence?
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: parrish fl
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Does this suggest that they think jeanne is coming to fl? pardon my lack of meteorology smarts, im still learning!
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Don't know yet....wait until the 11pm and 5am discussions...they should provide more light on this "trend" or the reasons for it. Also, wait until tonight's model runs to see if they agree with the shift.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
More models...closer to Florida....and similar to . Ugh.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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on the news arcticle, look at the name of the correspondant!!
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Florida
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Oh boy are we in for a ride....................to those that just got power back...............not a good deal at all.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I wouldnt trust the models if I were any of you when it comes to Jeanne, because they at one point had the storm offshore of FL moving north towards GA, and had it at another point hitting Daytona Beach on a westward track after moving NNW
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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oh dear...
Well... IF the posted earlier was right then...would possibly put pressure on to turn back and follow the stronger Jeanne.. right?
Then again notice that Lisa/td whatever if its still there is no where to be seen on the ..
Hey its just a new run.. can change..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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the first flick was scary enough that they decided to make a sequel.. don't worry though, sequels are rarely as impressive as the first go around.
as the title suggests, we have four named systems present and soon to be five. 93L has been evolving more slowly than i anticipated, but it is having it's way with lisa and i'm expecting it to win out. lisa may or may not dissipate.. i'd err on the side of may, based on the proximity/cyclonic envelope of the two systems. 93L has likely been a depression for 24-36hr now, but is still hesitant to officially recognize the system.. it's intertwined fate with lisa has yet to come clear.
so anyhow, karl is fishspinning like a champ, lisa is meandering due to weak ridging and doing the fujiwhara waltz, 93L is developing, is taking aim on the north texas coast, and... then there's jeanne.
modeling with jeanne keeps trending west, west, more west. the consensus is now almost evenly split on whether to move the storm ashore on the florida east coast.. and almost all modeling has it sideswiping far enough west to get the carolinas. centered around monday somebody in the southeast will probably take it in the teeth from jeanne. if it gets florida we're looking at 2/3, further north 1/2. there is a chance that it rakes the entire east coast next week.
last note on .. SSTs in the north gulf probably won't support a significant system, and shear should only relax enough for to baby-step back to tropical storm status.. but note the slow movement once it gets inland.. if you know anything about storms decelerating in the mid latitudes with a ridge building back to the north, you might reason that it could drift back into the gulf.. just a veiled threat, not a certainty.
another cape verde system has a shot at developing over the weekend/early next week.. but the door is about to swing shut for significant development east of 45w. with all the high amplitude features in the mid latitudes showing up in the globals over the coming week or two.. the potential for caribbean action may start to come into play. is tanking, so the potential should be taken seriously.
alas, the 2004 hurricane season.. the gift that keeps on giving.
HF 2345z22september
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow...I shudder when I continue to read updated death-tolls from Jeanne's lashing of Haiti. Here is an excerpt from the latest Reuters article:
The death toll rose to 1,008 in the Artibonite region around the northern coastal city of Gonaives and 72 in Haiti's Northwest province, said Dr. Carl Murat Cantave, a government official.
Another 1,000 people were missing and the final death count was likely to hit 2,000, he said.
Here's the entirte article:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6309716
With Jeanne now threatening to landfall in the SE USA, the chances increase for a name retirement (sad as it may sound that the death toll in Haiti isn't sometimes enough to retire a name)
--Lou
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LI Phil
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>>> (sad as it may sound that the death toll in Haiti isn't sometimes enough to retire a name)
Sometimes it's not enough to even give a system a TD status! dropped the ball with that late may system which killed more than 3,000!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
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Execellent breakdown of the tropics as I always say HF. Lisa will be asborbed my the massive wave behind it I think and enter the carribbean then develop, why not CAT 3 nothing seems to be holding back these hurricanes? Jeanne's has become more ragged and a opening is starting to spin around the eye, maybe an . The eye was very clear this afternoon as the called it a measely CAT 1 but that's old news already. The pressure has risen up ~10 milibars from the morning.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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312
URNT12 KNHC 222335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2247Z
B. 25 DEG 49 MIN N
69 DEG 00 MIN W
C. NA
D. 70 KT
E. 358 DEG 21 NM
F. 089 DEG 81 KT
G. 358 DEG 21 NM
H. EXTRAP 966 MB
I. 14 C/ 2216 M
J. 17 C/ 2373 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/NA
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 WXWXA JEANNE OB 01
MAX FLT WND 93 KTS W QUAD 2157Z, SLP EXTRAPOLATED FORM 7,000FT
Recon reports Jeanne is down to 25.8N, 69.0W....which is a due southward drift from the 5pm advisory. This continued southward motion is quickly throwing the forecast track out the window. The projection never had Jeanne getting below 25.9N. In my opinion, every increment south of the projected path that the hurricane travels increases the likelihood of an eventual track further west. 
Central pressure down another mb and flight winds of 93knots indicate she is holding her own at 100mph. It does seem that her IR presentation is a bit weaker....convection seems to have waned and the eye is growing in size.
--Lou
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> In my opinion, every increment south of the projected path that the hurricane travels increases the likelihood of an eventual track further west.
We gotta get the Varmint to perform a patented Rabbit Voodoo Hex [tm HF] on her.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at THIS latest Vortex message on :
866
URNT12 KNHC 222340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2340Z
B. 27 DEG 02 MIN N
89 DEG 27 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 314 DEG 052 NM
F. 031 DEG 36 KT
G. 314 DEG 034 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 24 C/ 256 M
J. 26 C/ 247 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. .1/5 NM
P. AF963 4409A INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NW QUAD 2257Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Doesn't that equate to a 45mph Tropical Storm???
--Lou
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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TROPICAL STORM UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2004
AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN JUST MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 10 PM CDT...0300Z SCHEDULED ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Jason Kelley
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Redbird
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Careful about the rabbit trap as it might also get the redbird who lives near the rabbit................
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SoonerShawn
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Doesn't that make it 50mph?
Edited by SoonerShawn (Wed Sep 22 2004 08:18 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You gentlemen are just full of good news aren't you.
Anyone with a bunch of free time on their hands wanna do some research and find out if this is unprecedented? I gotta believe it is...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
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It is 47kt flight level, which is > 50mph, however they adjust for it being flight level. There is a formula somewhere (don't have the link) to do the adjustment.
Bill
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Careful about the rabbit trap as it might also get the redbird who lives near the rabbit................
No, the rabbit voodoo hex dissipates otherwise healthy storms for no apparent reason. We need another one of those.
well, when i started referring to it first i meant it as a joke on the fact that rabbit almost always errs on the side of underdevelopment when there's something potentially wrong with a strengthening forecast.. but yeah, we could use one of those too. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 22 2004 08:26 PM)
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Redbird
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Hey would be cool if he could get the hex running on the quick as we down here are still smarting from . Now go get some of that delicious street food NYC is famous for.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Usually they estimate that surface winds are roughly 90% of Flight Level measurements. That would equate to 42 knots...likely rounded off to 40knots (ie 45mph)
--Lou
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
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Loc: Central Florida
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A system moving north and regenerating has never happened before anywhere, although there were three storms that went north and back south
1906
1946
Gordon, 1994
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Get some of that food and you might die of food posioning!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Look at http://images.ibsys.com/sh/images/weather/auto/at_ir_loop_640x480.gif
I swear that Lisa just disappeared from the scope. I thought there were 'blobs' there, Lisa and her snapping turtle friend. Now, I only see the turtle????
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
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>>> well, when i started referring to it first i meant it as a joke on the fact that rabbit almost always errs on the side of underdevelopment when there's something potentially wrong with a strengthening forecast.. but yeah, we could use one of those too. -HF
I'm sorry if I misunderstood you...I thought the hex was more sinister and had magical capabilities. Damn. Still, I like my definition better, but since it's your TM, gotta go with that
def #2 is fine. don't suspect rabbit really is sacraficing chickens and spreading the blood on florida's east coast... did get through after all.
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 22 2004 08:58 PM)
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Florida
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You just have to know where to look..............some of us have great noses for safe food and in my case my beak.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Track and Streets combined. Extreme close up on street level.
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Full size here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
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VADavid
Unregistered
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I suspect that Jeanne is becoming an Annular Hurricane. Annular hurricanes usually have an exceptionally well defined eye with a single donut of not very deep convection. They generate much stronger winds that the convention would suggest. Jeanne has weak but organized convection and a very well defined large eye.
It makes sense too, since Jeanne is under good environmental conditions and seems to be strengthening. The other thing about Annular Hurricanes is that they tend to be more resilient. However, Jeanne's convection could just be waning because of the dry air all around her.
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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It does look like a nasty giant snapping turtle................
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It's not a big deal but I'm just curious. I thought they rounded up on the winds instead of down. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
they found spot winds at flight level at 47kt.. 90% reduction gives 42kt or 47-48mph. given the organization/pressure i'd go with 35 or 40kt winds. got a hunch the track will be trending more to the beaumont area. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 22 2004 09:05 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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It's been a while since I have posted, as I have been extremely busy, but I feel like I am in the movie "Groundhog's Day". Wasn't it just a week or so ago something named was in the SAME SPOT as it is now?
Ivan does a big loop.
Jeanne is completing its loop. When was the last time 2 named systems in a row did a loop?
This year it seems like nothing can kill a storm. treks over land for days, brings down much cooler air in its wake, survives, and despite very strong shear, is now a TS again.
Jeanne died maybe twice over Hispaniola, spit out a center, looked for a bit, now, without deep convection, has a well-defined eye and is moving back towards the US.
Lisa-probably had no business surviving as long as it did considering it was a small blob of convection, and will probably be eaten by the thing behind it.
Karl-thanks for sparing us.
When that hurricane hit South America earlier this year, I had no idea that it was the start of one of the most unusual seasons I can remember.
As far as models-the has switched its normal bias from the left to the right, now the 18Z swings much back to the left. That may be true, but drastic changes on an off-hour run is reason normally for skepticism.
If I wanted to write a bizarre story for this season before it started, I don't think it could have been as strange as this one has.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I've been noticing that the models aren't really showing any amplitude in the jetstream after Jeanne gets out of the picture. That should create some type of build up between the jet stream fronts and the cycle will start again just in time for the next storm to be in the picture. Lisa seems to be getting asborbed by the very organized wave behind her, that looks like something from the link Ricreig posted.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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If whatever is behind Lisa swallows her whole, it should be named Hannibal (screw the fact that we already had Hermine) not Matthew.
hello, clarice.... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 22 2004 09:02 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Somehow, I don't think she will commit. How about a map showing the windfield between the closest currently forecast locations to give us inlanders and coastal people who've already seen more than enough some indication of what *might* happen if the forecast verifies. Otherwise, me thinks that because it probably won't commit, none of your most valuable maps will have been rendered. I actually used one of your maps at my (college) school to convince the dean to let our students off so they could either flee or find shelter....twice now in fact.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Clark
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Annular hurricanes are more of the very intense storms that, in effect, relax the shear around them. Isabel was one -- it's at about that strength where you start to see these storms. may well have been another. Jeanne's not there, and probably won't get there. The donut is but one factor...and truth be told, Jeanne's just a run-of-the-mill hurricane.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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That would be very helpful as those in Orlando and the coastal regions need bottom line facts in order to make some hard decisions. I hate the idea of possibly having to split again so soon but will if it keeps us safe.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Have you ever been in the city Redbird? There's a food cart every 20 feet, literally. Some places are known for their good food but only a LIer would know where that is unless you don't visit the city often. I'd be skeptical to get food from a food cart, who know's what they put in them!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
If whatever is behind Lisa swallows her whole, it should be named Hannibal (screw the fact that we already had Hermine) not Matthew.
Hannibal the Cannibal  Sounds right anyhow....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
That would be very helpful as those in Orlando and the coastal regions need bottom line facts in order to make some hard decisions. I hate the idea of possibly having to split again so soon but will if it keeps us safe.
Well, FACTS may be a bit strong of a word in that it is just a forecast and more than 3 days into the future at that, and we all know how accurate this years forecasts have been. Still, it would be nice to make some initial, tenative plans based upon the information his maps provide us. As his maps are *based* upon official forecasts and not his own speculation, they are very valuable as they depict the *current* thinking of the official forecasts.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Okay general info would be helpful and I meant to communicate that.............just a little frazzled right now like the rest of us in this tired leaky boat. Phil usually hooks us up with good 411..................after he grabs a bite to eat, we should see it.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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We've been talking alot about Jeanne's effect on Haiti, so I thought some of you might find this interesting... and hopefully not too OT...
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&am...deforestation_3
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Allison
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.9N 70.8W 74 X X X 74 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 8 9
26.1N 72.2W 37 4 X X 41 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 8 8
26.5N 74.1W 1 19 2 1 23 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4
MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3
If it doesn't turn, it looks like somewhere between Ft Pierce and Daytona are prime candidates for a landfall. Pray for a turn ... no make that a reverse loop ... out to sea.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I've remarked on this before, but why does insist on running "Storm Stories" when we have weather concerns? And another thing that pisses me off is they keep showing that ridiculous video from 1991 where, facing a F0 (Fujita scale) tornado, a bunch of folks seek refuge under a bridge. THIS IS THE WORST PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER during a tornado; anything stronger and we wouldn't have that video, they'd be dead.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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i was trying to figure out where did she go? that was a very quick die out... lisa?
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Henry Margusity's Column
POSTED: 8:05 p.m. September 22, 2004
The thoughts expressed in this column represent Henry Margusity's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating Accuweather forecasts, the opinions of many other Accuweather meteorologists are also considered.
This discussion is updated only the days that Henry is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often!
8pm Update
I would pay anything to hear the debate at the on why they decided to call the storm again. Hello, not a good move. On the other side of the coin, a great move. Why, now people will take the storm seriously along the Texas coast when they face a possible hurricane in 36 hours. Just watch what happens folks as the storm explodes prior to landfall.
More tomorrow on this fun filled weather pattern
I guess everyone at Accuweather has to try and be like JB. There is only one JB.
No way this guy will be right!
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at the latest model runs from Weather Underground. All but one now show a Florida landfall
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
I just took down all the plywood from my house yesterday (that's how confident I was about Jeanne...ugh!) I'm beginning to regret that decision 
--Lou
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Quote:
I've remarked on this before, but why does insist on running "Storm Stories" when we have weather concerns?
Absolutely! At the very least, they could break in during commercials and provide updates.... maybe "Local on the 8's" at the bottom of the hour or something....
Quote:
And another thing that pisses me off is they keep showing that ridiculous video from 1991 where, facing a F0 (Fujita scale) tornado, a bunch of folks seek refuge under a bridge. THIS IS THE WORST PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER during a tornado; anything stronger and we wouldn't have that video, they'd be dead.
LOL... I agree... it's like showing video of people playing golf in a thunderstorm... or something equally ridiculous....
Nevertheless, I must say that I am fascinated by that video every time I see it....
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Allison
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Look at the latest model runs from Weather Underground. All but one now show a Florida landfall
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
I just took down all the plywood from my house yesterday (that's how confident I was about Jeanne...ugh!) I'm beginning to regret that decision
--Lou
Yes Lou, and if you'd wash your car, it would only rain. But no, you *had* to take down the plywood, didn't you?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
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rec i got tired of putting up the plywood and taking them off every weedend since I've just kept the plywood up. Hurricane season a little half over Im staying boarded lol.
kinda dark in here someone turn on the light.
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Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
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Yeah recmod, I was going to take down the hurricane panels on MOnday but I thought...I better wait a few more days to see what Jeanne does. Hopefully we won't need them. Also, I must say Joe Bastardi did a pretty good job on both and Jeanne...I know a lot of people thought he was insane when he said would back down the coast and go into the Gulf and reform. He also said Jeanne would make landfall...initially he said it would go into the Gulf which may not be right on, but MUCH closer than a lot of others. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I know my attention is on right now but what kind of games is the BAMM trying to play concerning Jeanne? Come on, it has it taking a track right over Florida and out into the gulf but then has it turn right back around and go over the same place again. This is not funny. It is insane. I pray that does not happen.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Somehow, I don't think she will commit. How about a map showing the windfield between the closest currently forecast locations to give us inlanders and coastal people who've already seen more than enough some indication of what *might* happen if the forecast verifies. Otherwise, me thinks that because it probably won't commit, none of your most valuable maps will have been rendered. I actually used one of your maps at my (college) school to convince the dean to let our students off so they could either flee or find shelter....twice now in fact.
The greatest concern in rendering these maps is in providing meaningful information. When the forecast path is in question, folks can be startled very easily when you start showing them street names.
Once (if) Jeanne decides to turn due west or NNW, we'll crank up the map programs and update with each advisory.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Quote:
Why, now people will take the storm seriously along the Texas coast when they face a possible hurricane in 36 hours. Just watch what happens folks as the storm explodes prior to landfall.
No way this guy will be right!
Please tell me you're knockin' on wood right now...
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Allison
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Thanks Skeet..................we appreciate this a lot!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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We won't have 5 named storms in the basin.
The death knell has sounded for Lisa. It wasn't her big brother Karl that did her in, it's her kid brother TD 14/Matthew that has done it. I imagine advisories will be dropped after 11pm -- or at the latest, 5am, barring any redevelopment.
In any case, 4 is quite a feat -- and one you don't see all that often. And -- time for me to eat a bit of crow on this one. But, with an upper low to it's south, I don't think it's got too much strengthening before it makes landfall. Hopefully it'll get caught up in that broad trough in the west and never bother anyone again after this.
Karl's behaving nicely, like all storms should this time of year. And Jeanne -- she's not behaving so nicely, like every other storm this year. Models are coming into agreement on a Florida landfall again -- there's a storm that took a path like this into Florida about 20-25yr ago, but I don't recall the name -- but we'll see how long that holds. Thankfully she's more akin in areal expanse to than or , but it's not good news that we are even talking about another landfall. I'd love to see forecast track error verification once this one's done.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Anyone see The Day After Tomorrow?
Think the 2004 season is a lot scarier!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
... providing meaningful information. When the forecast path is in question, folks can be startled very easily when you start showing them street names.
Once (if) Jeanne decides to turn due west or NNW, we'll crank up the map programs and update with each advisory.
Ok, only 30 more degrees. Last I read it was going 240 deg While your maps *could* startle some folks, I suspect it wouldn't and your maps have always provided meaningful information even when ithey had to be revised from showing from hitting Orlando to hitting Alabama, it was still valid at the time and quite meaningful.
Keep up the good work. I know the word WORK is the operative word here, but it iss valuable work, indeed.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Wed Sep 22 2004 09:13 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The way it stands at this moment, you and I would not see much rain from because I would be on the south side of him and you would be on the west side. The bad part of that is the people who got the 30+ inches of rain from Allison would see alot of rain.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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What a day. Unreal day. Unreal season.
Seems to be the season that us trackers have wished for .. forever. Not withstanding wishing killer storms hadn't recurved just off shore and only seen their waves...
Truth is its a bigger year for Haiti than many realize because if you put together the deaths from the storm that wasn't named and Jeanne... they have had untold horrors and a massive death toll.
Lastly.. annoys me that the new wave was never designated but was obviously the stronger entity in the Lisa battle and yet it didnt have a name.
Like the early Hispanola disaster. No name but really strong... won't complain too much because am happy about being honest and moving on with the reality of a once in a century or two storm.
Now what with Jeanne...still hangs in the balance.
as for Phil...well you are a good man Charlie Brown!
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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This just figures...
I have to drive to Houston this Friday.
And Jeanne...what's up with that?
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Right when I was going to press the sheets early tonight! Now I have to wait for the 11pm advisory to see if the path shifts significantly to follow the models, which have had a "right bias" for at least the last 4 storms.
Crap- If the secret lab gets hit again, I'm going to sacrifice a beannie baby at sunset in Melbourne. Maybe that would do it...
Maybe we will have new maps, tonight.
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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I may watch it too..........................hard to not wait up and look
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Oh boy. It is the Tivo pattern!!! Except Jeanne will miss the day by a couple. At least I can Tivo the wall to wall hurricane coverage if she does come. 
All I can do is laugh about it. Only way to keep my sanity right now.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Wed Sep 22 2004 09:38 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hurricanes are now in an Atlantic holding pattern awaiting clearance for Florida. It almost does look like this. See attachment.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I was planning to wax my generator this weekend, but maybe I'll wait...
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Quote:
The way it stands at this moment, you and I would not see much rain from because I would be on the south side of him and you would be on the west side. The bad part of that is the people who got the 30+ inches of rain from Allison would see alot of rain.
Yup.... especially if he creeps along on Friday and Saturday... He's forecast to move only 30-40 miles in 24 hours!
Fortunately, I got only 2" of rain during TS Allison... that would be just about perfect with ...
Allison (...a name much vilified since June 01...  )
29.81 N
95.72 W
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Crap- If the secret lab gets hit again, I'm going to sacrifice a beannie baby at sunset in Melbourne. Maybe that would do it...
Maybe we will have new maps, tonight.
Dunno about the beannie baby, but between you and rabbits voodoo hex, maybe we could conviince Jeanne to go back out fisshing. I do hope, in the meantime, you do decide to update a map for her current (or 11pm) forecast. Shoot, if the track doesn't change, it is a 'commitment' and if it gets closer, it is a threat. Right? To quote a friend who makes great hurricane maps "Crap - now I have to wait up till 11 to see who is going to blow on me and how hard will it be?".... Hmmmm, somehow that didn't sound quite right....but you know what I mean.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Here is a link for some great editoral cartoons on Florida and her unwelcome guests.... Hurricane Cartoons
Waiting impatiently for Jeanne's decision on visiting us here...
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
--------------------
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I was planning to wax my generator this weekend, but maybe I'll wait...
I was hoping to find a slightly used generator at a garage sale this weekend. I guess I'll have to wait a couple more weeks.
Looking for some more consistent model trends by morning. I don't think I have enough energy to stay up until 11pm. Not surprised that she's coming back our way, though I was hopeful of a fish-spinner for a day or so.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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LOL
It would be a "collectable" beannie baby. Limited production and "retired" beannies have the greatest affect on the hurricane gods.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> was planning to wax my generator this weekend
That's going straight to the GEMS future column....
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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ok!!! too funny! :?:
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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This may be old news, but some video of eyewall taking out a gas station.
http://www.mthurricane.com/Hurricane_Charley.htm
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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The buoys off of Louisiana are showing 30kt+ winds...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spll1
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Allison
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Crap - now I have to wait up till 11 to see who is going to blow on me and how hard will it be?"....
Think this one will make the GEMS?
I'll slowly drag myself out of the gutter...sorry, we got some serious s--- to deal with right now...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 22 2004 09:48 PM)
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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those are excellent photos, unbelievable devastation!
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 434
Loc: Tampa
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Not sure if anyone saw MSN's idea of destruction and devastation.
http://cagle.slate.msn.com/news/Hurricanes/main.asp
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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There's a video link just below the radar picture. Kind of hard to see.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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It is worth noting that the official forecast track has an average 5-day error of 429 miles with Jeanne. The AVN has been the best performer, with an average 5-day error of just 150 miles. None of the other models I'm looking at have come close; next closest is the 5-day climatology & persistence (CLIPER) model at 261 miles at 5 days, which shows you how bad things have been.
Nonetheless, I've attached a plot I created with StormTrakker 6 (beta) depicting all available model runs of Jeanne. I've noted a few of the big ones on the map itself. There is a small cluster of models that turns the system off of the Florida coast, a much larger grouping that turns the system very near the Florida coast or over the state itself, and another small grouping that takes the storm across the state into the Gulf.
Of note is the AVN path, which is a hybrid of ' until you get to Osceola County and 's thereafter through Orlando and out to sea again, as well as the path, which skirts almost the Space & First Coasts. The BAM-series consensus is also noted, which probably isn't needed, but shows a path across the state.
Based upon the available guidance, I'd expect the track to be shifted a bit further to the left at 11pm. Note that all of these model runs are from 9/22 12Z, 9/22 18Z, or 9/23 00Z, depending upon the model.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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When you apply the latest forecast points on the Infrared Loop.... Dvorak Infrared Loop ....you get a sick feeling that Jeanne is just smiling evilly at us.
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
--------------------
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It looks like storms are trying to fire up pretty close around the center of . He just doesn't seem to want to die.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
When you apply the latest forecast points on the Infrared Loop.... Dvorak Infrared Loop ....you get a sick feeling that Jeanne is just smiling evilly at us.
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
Wow, a female cyclops...now I really know we're in need of a little voodoo...this thing ain't human!
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL 28.31N 80.68W
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I love tracking storms, but I can honestly say, I am ready for winter! I have been staying up way too late waiting for the 11pm updates and later model runs. I get up early before work to run and lift...and this is just wearing on me! I am sure others can relate.
--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
Edited by h2ocean (Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Orleans Nexrad Wind Profiler is indicating maximum winds, in the radar coverage area, have increased to 40kts at 3000 to 5000ft above ground level.
Winds are from the ESE from the surface to 26,000ft. At 28,000ft the wind (shear) is from the South at 5kts, increasing to 35kt southerly winds at 40,000ft.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Quote:
Of note is the AVN path, which is a hybrid of ' until you get to Osceola County and 's thereafter through Orlando and out to sea again
Trust me, I noticed that one. It looks like a goto this house and turn right. With the arrow pointing at my house. Of course, it is getting to be old hat this season. Just crossing fingers that the models will shift back east tomorrow.
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Jim
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 319
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Every single cain close to Florida this year has been forcast to the right but the cain went left of the forcast track except the day of landfall (most cases).
I would bet (based on the above) that Jeanne continues on a more left track meaning central florida up could see her wrath.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
I love tracking storms, but I can honestly say, I am ready for winter! I have been staying up way too late waiting for the 11pm updates and later model runs. I get up early before work to run and lift...and this is just wearing on me! I am sure others can relate.
My body wakes up every day between 4:55 and 5:10 to catch the new advisory. No alarm needed. I'm not liking that!!
--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
[
Trust me, I noticed that one. It looks like a goto this house and turn right. With the arrow pointing at my house. Of course, it is getting to be old hat this season. Just crossing fingers that the models will shift back east tomorrow.
One really good thing abut it pointing at your hous 5 days out: So far this season at least, whatever it pointed at 5 days out has been relatively dry and calm. To counter balance the warm fuzzy feeling that brings, all year it seems that the models all shift left (read West) much more than right....That means it probably *will* go over your house on the way to mine....Oh well. Que Sierra Sierra
Hey, ! I really need those maps if I'm gonna get Friday off to move my stuff back to my boss's garage...again! I'm afraid Saturday will be too late....it'll be raining by then and a tad windy....
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Hey, ! I really need those maps if I'm gonna get Friday off to move my stuff back to my boss's garage...again! I'm afraid Saturday will be too late....it'll be raining by then and a tad windy....
Patience...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Richard,
Like many of us, staying up WAY past the normal beddy-bye time has become the norm...now I need to see Skeeter's maps as well.
I'm sure as soon as the 11:00's come out, he'll have them for us.
Must be the season of the witch...(bonus points)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al 30.55N 88.08W
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Will hurricane center reitire or not ?
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Please help the less experienced.
Does that translate to alot of shearing going on or does it mean something else?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Patience...
You must be kidding! Right?
After this season we'll have our own wing, at a hospital, where we'll be patients.
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 10:34 PM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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They can't retire him until he dies...
watch him go inland at Texas, turn east and come back off the East Coast....lol....we'll still be tracking in November
--Lou
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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dude,
how can you even ask that? I can't believe they even brought the name back to begin with.
RETIRED!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al 30.55N 88.08W
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They like the name so much I thought they may keep it around. And keep using it on every other storm.
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cmdebbie
Unregistered
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I can definitely relate to that! I have always needed an alarm clock to wake up at 7 AM until Hurricane . Now I am up at 5 AM every morning without the clock and don't go to sleep until well after the 11 PM update. Gotta read this board until atleast midnight every evening.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
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Count me in on the up late up early checking on the storm disease.
My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
I'm in FLorida ... DAH......??
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
RED FLAG!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Must be the season of the witch...(bonus points)
Which witch? Hmmm, OZ...no, that was a tornado, Windy...no, that's Wendy, the teenaged.... Sea Witch...nope that's a boat, too early for Halloween.... Ok, I give up!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WELL I think so. But the shear is above 40,000ft, and most of the storm is below 40,000ft.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
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You know you've been tracking storms too much when you see "OZ" and can only think of model runs.
--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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11PM Out... Track shifted a little to left.. Waiting for discussion.. Still offshore..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html
Now we can await the most excellent Skeeter's dreaded Cone/Circle of destruction
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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He is starting to look like he might be getting a tad angry. Starting to really fire up close to the center. I hope this isn't a trend.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Also looks like they will keep Lisa, only as a result of the wave behind it overtaking the storm and merging. Guess they really aren't trying to go hogwild with the names after all...
(This is all per the 10:30p Trop. Wx. Outlook. You all will have to pardon Avila if the discussions are a bit lacking...looks like he's got duty on at least , Jeanne, and Karl, in addition to the ...)
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
11PM Out... Track shifted a little to left.. Waiting for discussion.. Still offshore..
Yes, about 40 miles West South West....not the correct trend we were hoping for, I'm sure. They say "the trend is your friend' I say Rubbish...that trend is definitely NOT my, or any Floridian's friend....Still time....gotta believe...still time....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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They are being very conservative on the slight track to the west,,they will wait to see the OZ model runs to make a more w track into florida. Thats how i see it and they will come into agreement with my thinking of this. at 3pm wasnt a depression but it continued to get better organized and they waited for recon,, thats why it wasnt upgraded at 5pm. Should be a weak tropical storm as most of us predicted nearing Texas coast in 36 hours,.,,,,still not 100% sure it will come inland or jog to the south. Ill post more on Jeanne later tonight and on Thursday on my landfall area.
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hi folks...don't post much, but please read.
I just have a little comment on all of the wishcasting that goes on here, and all of the wishcasting-bashing, for that matter. What amuses me the most is that people get upset with others who may be hoping that a tropical system heads their way. Let's face it. We all love storms, and we all love weather. Otherwise, why would we be checking these sites religiously? I for one will fully admit that I love to be out at the beach and see the surf and feel the wind from an oncoming tropical system. It is exciting! Plus, the thought of no work for a few days and a bathtub full of beer sounds fun, too. That said, I think we all agree that none of us want to see anyone homeless, anyone injured, anyone suffering, or anyone dead. The tragedy that was in the south and Jeanne in Haiti is not a matter to be taken lightly. However, I do think we need a bit of a reality check, and an admission that we all love the storms, and hope to feel the (minimal) effects of mother nature in all her glory. So lets embrace the wishcasters and everyone else, pay attention to all of the wonderful information from the mets and enthusiasts on this site, and keep a sense of humor along the way.
/rant off
As for Jeanne, though I haven't seen the 11:00, I agree that the ridge in the east has been undercast all season. Recall that was predicted to go right up through the state of Florida, and it hit well west of here. So I do think she will come further west than the has been predicting. However, I don't think she is a Florida storm, yet. She has shown too much tendency to want to head north since she got off of the Dominican. I say landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach as a Cat I hurricane.
More later when I check all my sat loops, models, and other posts. Cheers Steve!
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South Florida
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I certainly can't blame them for being conservative. No real reason to push it right now. I agree with them waiting to see what happens with the next runs. As soon as that path starts to cross the Florida coastline, I am afraid all hell will start to break loose with people going into panic mode.
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Jim
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davet
Unregistered
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Mike, Phil, Frank, Rabbit, etc etc
All you knuckleheads have a great way of easing the PAIN. Thanks for your insight AND easy humor...... Many of us need that right now. KNUCKLEHEADS is really a term of endearment,
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This won't engender too many responses...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at this from the 11pm Discussion on Jeanne:
Most of the global models...as well as
the consensus and the superensemble are now bringing Jeanne
near or over the Florida East Coast in about 3 days. Even the
GFS...which previoulsy turned Jeanne northward before reaching
Florida...is now bringing the hurricane over the peninsula. I was
tempted to shift the official forecast farther westward...but
because it is important to keep continuity...only a little westward
shift is indicated at this time.
Looking ominous for Florida...
--Lou
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
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Quote:
Most of the global models...as well as the consensus and the superensemble are now bringing Jeanne near or over the Florida East Coast in about 3 days. Even the ...which previoulsy turned Jeanne northward before reaching Florida...is now bringing the hurricane over the peninsula. I was tempted to shift the official forecast farther westward...but because it is important to keep continuity...only a little westward shift is indicated at this time.
Here's hoping they don't have to eat their words on this one :-/
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[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Phil, can you post a site link for me on the models...one that is updated earlier than the Penn State site? Thanks.
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South Florida
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Well every met and person at the has theyre own opinion and since its more then 72hrs out (about 78hrs) from landfall he will pass it on to the next person at the 5am adv for the track to the west and also they will look at the OZ runs. I agree we have time and he doesnt want to hype up a scare on the people along the coast tonight. He will leave it up to the morning guy. Agreed.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
They are being very conservative on the slight track to the west,,they will wait to see the OZ model runs to make a more w track into florida. Thats how i see it and they will come into agreement with my thinking of this. at 3pm wasnt a depression but it continued to get better organized and they waited for recon,, thats why it wasnt upgraded at 5pm. Should be a weak tropical storm as most of us predicted nearing Texas coast in 36 hours,.,,,,still not 100% sure it will come inland or jog to the south. Ill post more on Jeanne later tonight and on Thursday on my landfall area.
Well, as I remember, you forecast it to go, ala Andrew, across the state about 150 N of Andrew and into the gulf. I tend to disagree in that I don't think it'll get into the GOM. What I see happening is that it will march inland, then turn right and possibly march up the state just inland with a slight turne to the NE and comning back out into the Atlantic just off the coast to about NC....beyond that, I'm not sure but with the ridge to the N from about West of Bermuda to somewhere S, SW of Florida, I can see it deflecting right. Add the trof coming in from the West, (not in time), I'm not sure if it will go NE or back slightly NW and affect the NE US. My sills are not developed enough to see that far out.
I hope we're both wrong and we won't need to concern ourselves with how much Ice we'll need this time....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
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Yup, I was among the storm-hungry hurricane trackers too. Despite Andrew Hugo Mitch Floyd etc and everything they did, I still had it in the back of my mind that experiencing one of these things was something to look forward to, hanging on to every forecast/model that -might- bring one of these things my way.
Then gutted the marina my family's been running for 25 years. Needless to say, the taste left my mouth completely.
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[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Start with this.
I subscribe to accuwx plus, so I don't have many free links readily available...anyone out there want to toss up a few links...kinda buzzed too.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Continuity? Is he referring to Jeanne's projected track continuity, or the season in general?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I guess it's time for some sleep and I think we will wake up at 5 a.m. with the track hitting Florida. All models, talk, and signs are pointing towards that. The discussion really says it all.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
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Jeanne-specific, I'm fairly sure. As was mentioned above, since it's still over 3 days out there's no sense raising concern sooner than it needs be done.
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[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Thanks Phil. Sorry about the earlier post
I also subscribe to Accuweather professional...read Joe B every day.
Question: I heard mention earlier of two models suggesting that the ridge sliding east would actually not slide east, but bridge east, forcing Jeanne to the west. You heard anything further on this?
She, obviously, is still moving sw. How far off the track from 11 am is she now?
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South Florida
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I have a new theory, all the hot air from the politicians who have been in the state the last week or so has lowered the pressure over Florida allowing the ridge to build in stronger.
OK, getting tired and making bad jokes. Must be time for bed.
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Jim
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
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I'm watching re-runs here! Did you know the news could do that? Sure looks the same to me!
I can just hear our weather guys now..."Francis/Jeanne?" aw heck they look the same lets reuse the same forecast we aired 4 weeks ago and call it a night!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Ricreig ala Andrew is where it went from the postion of 28N and 67.5W close to Andrew then south then west to near miami. I said this will do the same up to landfall or near landfall but 150miles north of there.Also said wasnt sure if it will hug the coast or move across after that. So I didnt say it will cross the state like Andrew, but it could. Right now Im looking at new data and model runs to give a landfall (if any) by tomorrow midday.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Avila is referring to Jeannes track and not making big shifts with the track. I think they want to look over 00Z guidance before making the move, but to be honest with you I dont expect much difference in the 00Z guidance other then maybe making it more clear to shift the track west. Still time to watch but have to say I am leaning more and more toward fl, as I look at latest water vapor and model analysis.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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upper air patterns go into the runs of the OZ and 12Z runs. They do adjust them every 6 hrs but every 12hrs they add more data, I could be wrong, Jason might know.
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
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So is it becoming more obvious that the storm will move into the Florida peninsula instead of making a turn north towards SC?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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See, this here's the problem...Rabbit was online far to often at the beginning of the season, when we were all Jonesing for some tropical action, and now he almost never posts...when we need him most...oh well..one pill makes you larger and one pill makes you small...
Now we sit at the precipice...
Just Go AWAY!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Didn't read the whole thread, but we got a decent band come in just around dark. It had maybe 1/4" and some light winds. I was glad to get that. Looks like is blowing up some Nice Convection over the LA Coastal waters. I'm hoping we get a bit more, but it's just a nice summer night - cool, breezy and tropical.
As for Jeanne, some of the models are now taking her into the extreme NE Gulf and then moving up through the Big Bend along the GA and SC coastlines. Others curve her a bit inland and up. I don't have a call either way (including a NC hit) right now - it's more a watching game. The High is pretty strong to Jeanne's north so she's gonna head west at least close to the Peninsula. That much we do know.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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Scott, are you a pro met? because if not you should be! You are always so damn close. You had this scenario 3 days ago! unbelievable! o.k. I suppose the steel on the windows is staying!
Edited by 52255225 (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:24 PM)
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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I think we would have to say yes, at this point Mooshie.
Scott, can we use 25n as a benchmark? The thursday plot for the is basically at 25.5, and although I realize it could make a curve back up to that point...chances are more likely it will head due west for awhile, are they not? What is the atmospheric feature that is predicted to swing it north so rapdily? Is it a trof, or is it, presumably, the western edge of the ridge?
I am having a hard time seeing the swing north so early on water vapor.
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South Florida
Edited by Brett (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:25 PM)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
Count me in on the up late up early checking on the storm disease.
My girlfriend just told me I've been obcessed with these storms for two months now.
I'm in FLorida ... DAH......??
My wife thinks I am on the PC with a girlfriend. I keep saying,"I just need to get the updates on the storms." 3 hours later I'm still online. At least my kids are geeting a great education on Tropical Weather.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Scoot, are you a pro met? because if not you should be
Poor bastid's been fielding these questions for the past several years...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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whats the answer for the poor bastid? He is a met huh?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Oh well I just have a degree in met, worked part time at the NWS, but I do other things. Pro? No,,,, I just love hurricane season and winter storm season my whole life. I also get some data that only the mets,NWS and others get that I put into my forcasts, but also I dont get everything. Anyways with Jeanne I think the 25.5-26N benchmark on that for the next 48hrs with a gradual turn to the wnw around the bahamas and right now,,cant say into florida or hug the coastline,,,,still going over new data and will for next 12 hrs.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:31 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Right now, the ridge looks pretty strong to me. Without any change in the ridge, I would expect it to drop down towards South Florida. The fly in the ointment is what happens to the ridge beyond 48 hours. I would not be surprised to see the WSW motion continue for another 12 hours before it goes more westerly.
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Jim
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Steve Hirschb..
Unregistered
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Joe you hit it on the head. They're going to wait for 1 or two more model runs to see if there's consistency. WHy panic burnt out Floridians if she stays offshore. Avila will leave this call for the next shift. THis is definitely a nail biter. Anyone see any new runs (0Z)? Hopefully she will stay offshore and just brush the coast at worst. But I don't like the trend. This definitely bears watching. Avila loves to leave us hanging. His comment that Florida really needs to watch this closely spooks me. I think his gut is telling him its a FL. I don't know if I agree with the intensification though. Lots of dry air with this high pressure. Maybe he sees something we don't. Cheers!!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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That is true, that is why I always say it pays to be careful to look at things in the 6z and 18Z runs-there is no new upper air data to be input at that time. The off-time runs may best be described as updating from the on-time runs.
In winter storm forecasting, you will often read the writer of the discussion say he wants to wait for the 12Z or 0z before making big changes to a forecast.
There are SOME times, however, that those off-runs do pick up on something and start a trend that verifies. The most recent example is with . I believe it was the 18Z that showed getting picked up by the trof and not being stuck in one spot.
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
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If that is so then why doesn't the reflect changes like that in their tracks?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yes he is, and while he may have a hard time admitting when he misses a call, he has shown me some remarkable abilities this season; certainly better than ....
Long time posters/lurkers know Scottsvb has taken his fair share of abuse regarding both his qualifications as a met and his forecasts...he shut my pie hole up recently and I would listen to him if I were in his forecast area...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Modified wind field (to scale) to show off shore affect-
Full size available at www.skeetobite.com/weather
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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I agree Steve. No matter how poorly the has performed all season, he can't deny the fact that the earlier runs of the , and look mighty bad for north of Palm Beach. And the continued sw movement is disconcerting to say the least.
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South Florida
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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Thanks! Anxious to hear your next post, will check in the A.M.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Your a great guy Phil,,,,just people will critize people like Jason, JB, Clark, other mets or I if we give out a forcast more then 3 or even 5 days and we are wrong. Thing is after really 3 days anything really can change. We try our best togo out to 5 days and that is still roughly a thoughtful guess. Basically if anyone really wants us to give out more then a 3 day forecast and we are wrong,,,,then hey I look at it as we are human and we cant control what the weather patterns offer us at the time of our judgement.
Edited by scottsvb (Wed Sep 22 2004 11:37 PM)
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Mooshie, take a look at Steve's post above. Although the models have been trending west, there is still a definite possibility it will stay just off the coast and turn towards the Carolinas. He seems to want to leave the call to the morning crew. Also, like it or not, every mile of hurricane warning put into effect costs the local and state government $1 million in personnel, services, and other costs...so unfortunately, there is a monetary factor as well.
But I agree. If the models show it further west, then move it west.
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South Florida
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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Quote:
the season of the witch
Halloween III
Jason/Ivan never dies he just keeps coming back...
'shana
So what does one do with bonus points?
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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One thing to remember is that watches and warnings for Florida are not an issue at this point. Really suppose to be within 48 hours or so of landfall before watches go up. I would suspect that the earliest a watch could be required would be tomorrow night.
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Jim
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Ricreig ala Andrew is where it went from the postion of 28N and 67.5W close to Andrew then south then west to near miami. I said this will do the same up to landfall or near landfall but 150miles north of there.Also said wasnt sure if it will hug the coast or move across after that. So I didnt say it will cross the state like Andrew, but it could. Right now Im looking at new data and model runs to give a landfall (if any) by tomorrow midday.
At 62, please allow me a little senility...I was working from memory but I equated 'ala Andrew' as implying a similar track. I wasn't seeing the similarity up to the coast line of Florida then a turn, albeit 150 miles north of the MIA area. That clarified, you and I are in substantially similar mind-sets. I am not a serious amateur forecaster with your skills so I feel good that I'm even in your ballpark, forecastwise. While I teach aviation weather, that is nowhere near the skills needed to make tropical weather forecasts. Just enough to keep my student pilots weather-savvy enough to avoid flying into a thunderstorm or squall line. But, in my lifetime, I've seen a lot of weather and through observation more than education, I do often form correct, or nearly so, opinions as to what is likely to happen. This season has not helped my reputation of making good forecasts regarding these storms, but it has helped me make some good decisions about getting out of Dodge in a timely manner this season. Keep up the good work Scott, you give this site (along with a notable few others) a real good reputation for making good forecasts. Often as good as the pros, occasionally better. A big differance between the more weather literate of our members, unlike most of the forecasters (maybe Stewart excepted) is that your and their forecasts explain *why* it will likely happen. The and most of the pros just say 'this is the way it will be'. Jason, as a pro, and a valuable member of this forum, does a good job with the 'why'....when he has time and isn't ducking tornados. Again, keep up the good work....right or wrong, you are an asset to this forum. Thankfully, you are quite often right.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Bed before 11? I'm lucky if I see it before 1AM..lol. Oh well makes checking the 11pm, and 2am intermediates, that much easier.
Anyway, even as of the 5pm discussion on Jeanne the farthest south they had her tracking was around 25.9N. Here it is 11pm and she's gone all the way to 25.6N. However, I think she's actually stayed a bit further east than had been forecast. On the earlier discussions she was pegged to cross 26.3N at 68.8W, she passed at 68.5W. 26.1N was supposed to be 69.5/70.5W and in reality it was 69.0. The question will be how fast is she going to make that curve around to the north. A bit faster and she misses Florida. A bit slower and she scrapes the coast or heads inland a ways.
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Check the Surf
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
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Sure seems that way! I would say stranger things have happened but I dont recall anything stranger ever happening.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Ricreig,,I think thats great what you do. There are better forecasters then me out there. I get storms wrong and learn from them,,heheheh. Anyways keep up the great work you do also.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Thanks , now I can get some sleep....till about 5 am ::)
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Scott, what models are you waiting for in terms of landfall? Which ones do you place most emphasis on? The superensemble, apparently, has been predicting a central florida hit for its last few runs.
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South Florida
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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I dont get the ens,, that is a closed run for and and other clients. Jason and or Clark could answer that.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Thanks , now I can get some sleep....till about 5 am ::)
You KNOW the track is farther West. Wasn't appropriately adjust to maintain "continuity", whateverthehellthatis
Read 11pm Discussion
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I would trust your best guess over most other folks facts. And that's a fact.
Can I get a co-signer on that?
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Brett
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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/signs.
Man, the 25n line is getting awfully close.
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South Florida
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I second that emotion! (more bonus points)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Ricreig,,I think thats great what you do. There are better forecasters then me out there. I get storms wrong and learn from them,,heheheh. Anyways keep up the great work you do also.
Thanks for the kudos, but it you that deserve them and the others in this forum that make it work so well and help the less educated members of this forum, such as myself, understand a very complex situation. If I have any worth at all here is the fact I have lived this weather, experienced its fury and seen the death and destruction. Most of our members are too young to have lived through Camille, Betsy and their ilk, and need to rely on us old-farts experience to help guide them go good decisions, reducing the number of bad decisions the inexperienced often make without guidance. I rely on you and others like you to guide me and I try to translate that to "Yes, you *should* evacuate' when asked by the many that have never seen a storm up close and personal. People like Colleen, not a pro forecaster, has great skill at asking the right questions at the right time. Phil (when his mind isnt in the gutter Does a good job keeping the rest of us 'inline' and on topic. Mike, John and Ed do a fantastic job running, repairing, programming and forecasting . It is quite possible that because of this board, lives have been saved. I like to think we're all a team....it takes us all doing our own thing but working for a common cause.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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What do the bonus points add up to? A trip to .....
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Anxious to get the 00Z model runs.. Please post as soon as you can once they are in.. I know Scott is great about that..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Phil (when his mind isnt in the gutter Does a good job keeping the rest of us 'inline' and on topic.
Hey!
See, my mind is always in the gutter, I just need to keep it focused...know you mean well...where's the damn rabbit?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
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Your map has going right over my house in Mont Belvieu. I love your maps.
Now what does one do to prepare for a TS? Just curious?
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ticka, got boots. Ice, water, all things put up high- 4 foot high or better. If the water starts coming up, get off the floor. Last resort go to the attic. Make sure you can reach you water supply and some food. Put it near the attic access, and grab it on the way up. Don't forget the cellphone.
These are last resort ideas but Tropical Storms in Texas are always huge. But then isn't everything in Texas. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail.
Life preservers are great to have around, just in case !
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 AM)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Your map has going right over my house in Mont Belvieu. I love your maps.
Now what does one do to prepare for a TS? Just curious?
Yes, 's maps are great and keep a lot of questions like 'will it hit me' from ever being asked as well as reminding us that a storm isn't just a point but an area.
As to what to do to prepare. First, prepare for it as you would a hurricane because they can and do often become hurricanes, often just before they get to where you are. Second, keep informed.
Any tropical storm is well capable of toppling trees, disrupting power, water, sewage and traffic controls. People do die because of them, trees fall on them or their cars, they spawn tornados, floods and disrupt lives. While you usually won't have to evacuate unless you are in a flood prone area, and the wind is usually not damaging of your home or shelter, it is still capable of requiring you to have non-perishable food, ice, candles, batteries, flashlights and a gallon of drinkable water, per person, per day. You might be without power for days or a week or more so prepare yourself by filling up your car fuel tank, ensuring your standby generator works and has fuel and oil in case you are without power. In other words, do the same stuff you would for a hurricane. It doesn't matter too much if your power is off because of a TS or from a Hurricane, it's off, your food will rot, your water could be contaminated....you get the idea, I hope.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I could be very wrong, and I hope I am, but I think he's having a spot of fun witchall...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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FSU Superensemble is restricted to the , certain people at , and anyone willing to pony up a ton of cash (think five digits).
Jeanne (et al.) synopsis...
Jeanne is currently along the south-southeast edge of a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered near the Delmarva peninsula. A gradual westward turn should begin to commence shortly. A vigorous longwave trough is currently situated over the Rockies but beginning to progress eastward as a ridge builds in just off of the northwest Pacific coast. A weak vorticity maximum is noted in northern Mississippi rotating along the western periphery of the eastern ridge, while a digging trough is analyzed along the eastern periphery of the ridge. The first piece of energy grabbed Karl and turned it northward; it may turn back towards the east for a short period of time before the next piece of energy, currently diving off of the eastern part of Canada, picks it up and turns it into the maritimes. A weak (and weakening) ridge is noted in the NW Caribbean with an upper low in the Bay of Campeche; this is establishing a region of upper-level diffluence around , enhancing the convection (but, at the same time, the upper low is providing some shear) and allowing the storm to return from the dead.
There are two scenarios that I can see playing out with Jeanne and the current set up.
The first keeps the ridge well-entrenched for the most part where it is now, allowing the storm to progress further westward into north central Florida before recurving along the periphery of the ridge. This is similar to the path, although if this pans out, it is more likely the storm does not re-enter the Gulf at all and instead rides through Florida into Georgia somewhere east of Tallahassee, perhaps near Valdosta. In my opinion, this is the least likely of the two scenarios but feasible under the following situation: the piece of energy riding around the north side of the ridge is rather strong and could cause the ridge to become cut off -- essentially setting up an omega block situation. In any case, the ridge should erode a bit on the western side, allowing the storm to begin to turn near shore.
The other scenario does not involve the ridge becoming cut off from the flow and setting up a blocking pattern. This follows with the Canadian storm diving south, but just enough to pick up Karl and not enough to create a blocking situation. As it picks up Karl and the trough in the Rockies progresses eastward, the ridge should continue to move eastward, perhaps weakening slightly. This would allow Jeanne to travel westward initially, then turn somewhere offshore of Florida and affect the Carolinas. I feel this is the more likely of the two scenarios and would result in a target area between Cape Hatteras and Savannah.
Bottom line -- progressive pattern, Carolinas (with a close call for Florida); blocky pattern, Florida. I feel it's somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 likely for the former, but reserve the right to change that. I do not feel that south Florida is in line for a landfall and also feel that the region from Jacksonville to Savannah will likely not see a direct impact but could see tropical storm force winds in either scenario. This isn't good for me, as I've got something to attend in Jacksonville Sunday night!
A good marker to get a grasp for this storm is the band of dry air on water vapor imagery that currently extends from Jeanne NW to Jacksonville and Memphis and onward around the ridge. This is essentially the periphery of the ridge as it stands, and also an inhibiting factor on the strength of Jeanne. Warmer waters lie ahead, although so do waters churned up by . Shear should remain relatively low, but the dry air is keeping the storm in check and the overall structure appears to be a fairly stable one. The current intensity, give or take a few mph either way, is a good bet in the short-term with some slight weakening likely as the storm nears shore. Time frame we're looking at is late Sunday into early Monday, depending on which scenario pans out. Of course, further north equates to a later time.
My track forecast is similar to the last run of the , albeit a few miles further offshore, and is similar in nature to the forecast. I do not have much to find fault with in the forecast as-is, but can see the potential for the second scenario to pan out. We'll know more in a day or day and a half as to which way this is going to pan out; thankfully, things appear a bit clearer than they did in the past with this one.
And to think -- all at once, we have a loopy storm affecting the U.S. mainland, another loopy storm that has already affected the mainland redeveloping and doing something that is very likely unprecedented in the Atlantic basin, one (finally) well-behaved fish spinning Cape Verde storm, and a case where a storm and a disturbance are interacting, with the circulation associated with the storm and the convection associated with the disturbance combining forces to result in one overall system. And this is just the midst of the season -- let's not even go back into what's already taken place this year, nor look ahead to a potential Gulf/NW Caribbean season in the next month to month and a half.
Final word on Jeanne -- everyone from Palm Beach, FL northward to the Delmarva, due to the track potential, needs to watch where this thing is going. The highest probability areas are noted above, but no one is clear yet and regions not expected to see a direct landfall may likely see tropical storm force winds nonetheless.
Good night everyone...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Anyone can get the oz model runs. First couple are in. has Jeanne moving thru the northern bahamas then just about where made landfall, she turns NW along the coast. So there are like multiple landfall points....just to note though, the has little movement over the first 24 hrs or movement w rightaway near 26N,, and its already around 25.5, so if you add that into the model it makes landfall near WPB and heads inland towards Lake Okech,,,and up the state. is simular to its 12Z run taking it thru the bahamas and making landfall at WPB,,hmhmhm it takes it along 25.5N-26N then a wnw movement while nearing the florida coast, then to Sarasota exiting into the gulf then moving NW towards the Panhandle. takes Jeanne just north of the bahamas and into Cocoa Beach and turns it NW just inland moving up the state. Note on this though it quickly moves Jeanne about 280-290dg after 8am this morning, I doubt that until Friday afternoon. So I think its just a tad too far north but its possible.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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My suggestions were for a worst case scenario, as I haven't been in a Texas flood since 1979. I remember a lot of Tropical Storms going ashore in Texas and spinning down, while dropping huge amounts of rain. Texas is beautiful, and you can see for miles, but that also means it's nearly flat.
Richard posted a message the other day from the Cayman Isles. It was quite an abrupt awakening to me. I knew the surge was high there, but didn't have a clue as to how high.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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And it's not a particularly good thing...
00z is out.
It calls for landfall near Palm Beach in 3 days' time (00z Sunday, 8p Sat. ET) with a slow traversing of the east coast of Florida up to St. Augustine, where it barely scrapes back into water before moving up to Charleston, SC, where it -- get this -- scrapes the coast all thr way through the Outer Banks before exiting off of the coast and heading up towards the tip of Massachusetts. In three days, it is expected to traverse essentially the entire SE US coast. Thankfully, the heaviest rain and wind would remain offshore in this scenario the entire way, but it's still not a pleasant scenario to think about.
Looking at the progs, the believes the system in the midwest will begin to lift as it approaches the Great Lakes but have enough of an influence on Jeanne to slow it, turn it northward along the coast, and just barely pick it up, mainly as a function of not entirely building the ridge back in behind it very well. It's a believeable scenario, but one we'll have to wait to see if it pans out.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Last post tonight...
I haven't been in a Texas flood since 1979.
That's either Stevie Ray or ZZT but I'm not gonna look it up right now.
'Nite all, thanks for the kind words...you guys rule! Also thank Mike C as he and bro John established this site 10 years ago! Everyone be safe and we'll all face this stuff tomorrow!
2004: The Season From Hell
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Matt033
Unregistered
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Ok hurricane , one of the 6th most powerful freaking hurricane to form ever in the Atlantic basin. Moving over the leewards,Jamaica,Caymens causing hundreds of deaths. In the worst damage since hurricane Georges of 1998...Which went over the northern islands. This hurricane was also the most powerful hurricane in histroy or close to it for the central Caribbean west of 70 west. It was stronger then Gilbert, of 1988. Which hit Jamaica, at around the 960s millibar range then took off to the lowest pressure ever recorded in a Atlantic basin system(888 millibars with a on the recon paper is 885 unoffically). Huricane Allen was the third lowest pressure with 899 millibars. The second which is the 1935 labar day hurricane that hit southern Florida. Killing some where around 400 people.(Pressure 892 millibars) Reports of over 200 mph winds. went up into the Gulf of Mexico as a cat5 after slaming Cuba. In weaken some as the water was slightly cooler. Then it hit a eddy. Which made it at least 145 mph tropical cyclone if not more. The northeastern Gulf of Mexico had water temperatures of between 80 to 82 degrees. With a low level of "Tcp" meaning the warm water was not deep. was moving below 10 to 12 mph over that area. So yes no wonder it kind of started losing some of its punch. Then made landfall on Gulf shores as 130 mph tropical cyclone with pressure of 943 millibars. I could beat against that in say it was some where closer to 135 to 140 mph. This system then flooded a third of the united states(East coast) With a giant Tornadoe outbreak with over 106 tornadoes. Cities flooded to the ground. Then the system became (Extratropical cyclone/depression) It raced across the Atlantic. In ended up on the other side. The system we see now was a 500 millibar vort max that split off the southern quad of cyclone . It was a cold core system. It really had nothing to do with what so freaking ever. It moved down the coast like a bat out of hell on the back side of a developing area of high pressure. The same high that is stopping Jeanne from going out to sea. This high is going to pull Jeanne back into the Coast. This little 500 millibar vort max(Cold core system) Moved across Florida developed a well defined LLCC. Then developed into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf fo Mexico. This system has nothing to do with what so ever! It should be named "Matthew" It is its own tropical cyclone! If you look at histroy you can see system like tropical depresson 6 being renamed tropical depression 7! While it was the same system in should of been tropical depression 6 because it was from the same system. But in this case it was different.
The screwed up in broke there own rule!
Little Lisa!!! Yeah that little system that was ate tonight be invest 93L. Which was 3 times the size of lisa! Lisa fall apart/was distroyed by 93L. There is no reason what so freaking ever to give the name Lisa to 93L. It should be the "N" storm if the would do there goddamn job! It really freaking pisses me off!
There was also a system in May that formed in the Caribbean. That system hit Hati causing thousands of deaths. It had a clearly defined LLCC on both Visible in Quickscats. It most likely was a tropical storm. Another freak up by are friends working at the !
Another system that formed in the Gulf in mid June. This system had a clearly defiend LLCC with deep covnection for a time. This system also hit the Gulf coast of the united states. Did the even give a flying hell about it freaking no!!!
End of Rant!
(Is this all right to have here)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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These "wait and see" scenarios are starting to really stress me out. *If* this storm comes ashore along the Treasure/Space Coast of Florida, were looking at landfall sometime Friday, right? Well that only gives ppl 2 days to get ready. Lots of folks have taken down shutters here in Vero Beach. Stores still don't have an abundance of supplies. I went and bought a propane stove last week and I had to drive all over town before I found ONE at Sears. Even the grocery stores are still understocked. I am a teacher in St Lucie County and we haven't even gone back to school yet -- no classes since Sept 2nd! Guess I will wake up at 5am to see if I need to get the shutter brigade up and going again!
Edited by cjzydeco (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:11 AM)
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truth
Unregistered
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matt go to bed and take your xanax or zoloft dude
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Matt033
Unregistered
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I don't take that trash!
First of all how in the world can 93L which was 3 times the size of Lisa. Which was distorying Lisa. Be lisa? I'm kind of sick of people bashing me in trolling me just to make fun. I think it is utter bull crap! Then we got (It think I spelled it out fairly well?)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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I enjoy your arguement, and I certainly agree with your comments about Lisa/93L. As for , I know that local mets have been talking about "the remnants of " circling back down to Florida for several days now. Maybe the didn't want to muddy the waters for the less hurricane-savvy members of the viewing public.
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
End of Rant!
(Is this all right to have here)
Matt,
Your burr under the saddle is showing. Personally, I don't quite understand the reason to be so upset so as to cause your language to degenerate almost to street level. Your opinion is most certainly welcome and you have a right to it, but the members of this forum have nothing to do with the how and why the named the GOM version of as it did. The is made up of people, like yourself and they, being human, can and do make mistakes and can be inconsistant. Unless their action or inaction directly impacts your life, fortune or well being, I fail to see why it is necessary to be so agitated. Passionate about your convicitions is one thing, ranting and shouting in anger is entirely another.
By the way, if you'd register, members of this formum might be able to PM you and explain their viewpoints, support or not and why. Your statistics in the first part of your message were most enlightening and a good summary of ....until the attacks on the that is. I personally think that attacks on members of this forum, or any entity such as the , are simply inappropriate. We all get AFU at times, but we shouldn't berate others when they do it, so it seems to me.
Please join us, register and keep the level of discussion a bit higher than the dust of the streets as much as possible. OK?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Good points. As far as it being here I would say probably okay. It's up to Ed and the moderators.
Apparently /TPC has been having some in house bashing going on over II. They even mentioned "animated discussion" in one of the latest II discussion's. I'm sure they have conferenced with the WMO. World Meteorological Organization, and are playing by the rules.
Hurricane Mitch-'98, did somewhat of a loop over the Yucatan, and came right back across FL as a Tropical Storm.
Under the circumstances-many, many storms this year. I would cut some slack. They usually have more time between storms, and don't have near as many storms beating on their door. They make go back and regroup, eat crow, or have a party after the season is over.
As long as they give us enough warning to Get Out..
We've all learned that the 'canes are unpredictable. There is better forecasting than there was in 1969. But pinning down the precise point or within 65 miles is almost impossible. As we saw with I. He was dead set on Mobile, and made a right hook at the last hour.
Plan out your routes. More than one route. Know where you are going to stay/stop. Keep your papers and valuables ready to go. Good luck, and here's hoping and praying that no one needs it.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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Can someone tell me what and SSTS stand for? I keep seeing these and just can't figure out the acronyms.
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
These "wait and see" scenarios are starting to really stress me out.!
Yup, but as mere humans, what can we do about it? Nada! So, do the best you can to redirect your reaction to the situation into constructive activities and thoughts. Hard to do, easy to say, but it is the only thing a human can do to make it better. I am stressed as much as anyone, and I admit it, but I try to counter that stress by participating in this forum, learning as much as I can about the forces at work, and maybe most importantly, preparing and executing a plan of action that will give me the best opportunity not only to survive, but to minimize my own property loss. Beyond that, I try and see the humor in the situation, you know, comic relief. It really does help me and I would suspect others such as yourself. I worry about the things I can do something about and do my darndness to avoid worrying about the things I cannot affect.
Try to convert your stress and frustration into something positive. *Finding* that positive substitute is both challanging and believe it or not, reduces the stress by diverting your attention to positive actions and thoughts.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TUTT-Tropical upper tropospheric trough-i think that's right
SSTs- Sea Surface temperatures
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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I must respectfully disagree.
The storm that is now can be traced back to the remnants of . The energy from the storm split off into two pieces -- one that raced northeastward into the Atlantic, and another that dove south and westward, dragging down a lot of dry air with it. The surface circulation may not have remained with this piece of energy, but that is not one of the qualifications to reclassify a storm with the same name; after all, it happens all of the time with depressions and storms that weaken to waves and then regenerate, and happened just this year with TD 2/Bonnie. Regardless, the energy associated with rode around the ridge of high pressure, acquired tropical characteristics once again, and redeveloped into . It is similar to Mitch of 1998 -- another storm which, after making landfall, split into two distinct pieces of energy, one of which came through the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm (again named Mitch) and the other of which skirted the coast of Mexico on the Pacific side and never developed. They are not breaking their own climatology; they are, in fact, going with precedent.
The 11pm discussion clearly states what happened with Lisa and 93L and an analysis of the satellite imagery serves to back this up. The convection associated with Lisa died off, while the low-level center stalled, moved slightly east, and began to redevelop convection along the periphery of the old 93L. A QuikSCAT scatterometer pass earlier today showed two distinct centers, both of about the same size and magnitude, connected by a trough extending ESE out of Lisa. It has become apparent during the evening that Lisa's circulation won out, but that the convective energy associated with the other wave (93L) was drawn into the Lisa circulation after it's own convective energy was dissipated due to shearing effects. Plus, Lisa gradually grew in scope throughout the day and was not the 3 times smaller that you claim than 93L. The two systems merely interacted and the circulation from Lisa won out -- that's why it's still Lisa and not Matthew or Nicole or anything else.
NHC is doing a fine job, IMO, and especially considering they only had one lead forecaster to handle operations this evening.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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We've actually done a pretty good job of keeping our chin up and finding humor in all this. Especially while not not having power for 10 days! Me, my mom, my dad, two cats and a dog. Lots of QT with the family! Plus, I know all of my neighbors and how they like their campstove coffee. And Jeanne has been a huge joke around here the last week. Heck, I've been preparing for my first day back at school for 2 weeks! That oughtta be some class! But tonight when I saw the 11pm update and logged on to read the board here, I laughed at a lot of the comments while my eyes teared up. Just a little PTSD rearing its ugly head.
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
TUTT-Tropical upper tropospheric trough-i think that's right
SSTs- Sea Surface temperatures
I think you are right, but how does it affect our stormy weather? I think that is the unasked question. I'm not all that sure myself, but I'll try and see how close I can get:
SSTs This is the temperature of the ocean water. As troppical storms are heat driven, it seems that the more heat in the ocean (Water Temps) the more 'fuel' available for the storm. Somewhere about 80 degrees F seems to be the 'magic' number for the right fuel/air ration to start the engine. Higher temps mean more fuel and potentially stronger storms.
TUTT: Lets see, T)ropical - having to do with the tropics as opposed to the mid latitudes where we in the US mostly live.
U)pper - having to do with the top or highest levels more than down an the bottom of the ocean of air we tend to live in.
T)ropospheric - having to do with the troposphere, the air where we live, where the weather is and residing just below the Stratosphere...the first few miles of the atmosphere above sea level and last but not least:
T)rough - a lower than normal pressure for the upper regions of our troposphere.
What does the have to do with storms? Frankly I'm not totally sure, but I do know that storms require high pressures at high altitudes or it can't breathe and if it can't breathe, the engine won't start or stay running. Like stuffing a bananna into the tailpipe of a car....tends to limit perfommenc or even kill the engine. So, I would suspect a strong might inhibit storm genesis or limit activity somewhat while in the tropics.
Now, will a real met or someone who *really* knows tell us the real reason why these are important.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Based on satellite loop ending at 0315, and buoy reports.
At 0315Z-(1115pm EDT), the center"swirl" of was located at the SW corner of convection, and was exposed. The "swirl" is best seen using IR channel 2.
Buoy 42041 has reported a wind shift, between 0350-0450Z, Wind was 260deg at 6kts and is now 170deg at 21 gusting to 25kts. Wave height was reported as 16.4ft at 0450Z.
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 AM)
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
We've actually done a pretty good job of keeping our chin up and finding humor in all this. Especially while not not having power for 10 days! Me, my mom, my dad, two cats and a dog. Lots of QT with the family! Plus, I know all of my neighbors and how they like their campstove coffee. And Jeanne has been a huge joke around here the last week. Heck, I've been preparing for my first day back at school for 2 weeks! That oughtta be some class! But tonight when I saw the 11pm update and logged on to read the board here, I laughed at a lot of the comments while my eyes teared up. Just a little PTSD rearing its ugly head.
Sounds to me like you are already doing the right things. You are doing right by keeping a bad situation in perspective. I only went 8 days and 5 days respectively without power, but I know how much I miss the essential Air Conditioning. But, I couldn't do anything about it, so I soaked in a cool tub of water....Didn't help much but I convince myself that it did <grin>. In the FWIW department, I really don't think you will be affected too much by Jeanne, but to be sure, keep closely posted in case I'm wrong.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Richard, you did a much better job explaining that. Ever thought about teaching?
I found this on HRD's website.
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A low is a that has completely cut-off. lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". s are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. s are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that s can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on s see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 AM)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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OK, that makes sense. But if a means lower than normal pressures aloft, then does it differ significantly from an upper level low (ULL)? Sorry, I took meteorology once a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Thanks Richard, you did a much better job explaining that. Ever thought about teaching?
You nut! You know that I *am* a teacher. From RADAR repair in the USAF (where I might have met you after Camille) to instructor pilot, to teaching at High-Tech Institute here in Orlando.....
Actually, I was guessing at the reasons why they are important to tropical weather, but I hope to be at least somewhere close. I really am interested in confirmation or re-education. One thinng I can be sure of, this board and it's' members are collectively more than able to clear things up. From Scottvb to Clark and the rest, we have a wealth of knowledge ready to be tapped.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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questionation
Unregistered
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One question, What happens is both pieces of energy redevelop into Ts's? Would we have #1, #2.
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
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I feel your pain cjzydeco. I live in Fort Pierce and I don't look forward to another bad storm hitting here again. This is just nerve wracking to watch this scenario take shape. My heart just sank when I saw the models for Jeanne shift to Florida once again.
St. Lucie County has not issued any kind of evacuation as of yet, though I did hear the local news say it would be sometime Saturday night rather than Friday for landfall if there is such a thing. Kinda concerned because if all the schools got so seriously damaged, there isn't going to be a lot of shelters available since they are all SLC schools for the most part. Not sure why they don't use the fortress that is Fort Pierce Magnet School for the Arts. That building has probably been there for a long, long time and would seem to me to make a great shelter.
The biggest thing this time, since we know the house is stronger than we thought, is whether to stay or go to a shelter this time. Guess we'll have to see where she heads for. Oddly enough the damage we suffered to our car came from the shelter's roof that blew little pebbles into the back window and shattered it.
I know it sucks, but all we can do is hang tough and hope that whoever gets it is spared too much damage and lives.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
... s are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that s can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.
Well, I tried. Seems like I might have gotten it half right....not too bad for a guess, I guess
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
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Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
OK, that makes sense. But if a means lower than normal pressures aloft, then does it differ significantly from an upper level low (ULL)? Sorry, I took meteorology once a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...
If I read the exerpt that Daniel found, it may have to do more with termperature than pressure. Read his reply to my post above and see if that makes any more sense.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
One question, What happens is both pieces of energy redevelop into Ts's? Would we have #1, #2.
That may be the best question of the night. I have never heard of it happening (like a lot that has happened this year)
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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You know that is a good question,,,,what happends say like down in Hispaniola where a storm splits 1 piece reforms a center in the carribean and another up towards bermuda,,,,,#1 and 2#???? Hmmm maybe they should of just continued with the new names. They cant just say they are keeping the name cause if they do,, they dont know if the other will develop and that would cause a real good question. Anyways Im tired and off for the night, I dont even make sense to myself but ill post this up for the hell of it. GN
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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No, you hit it right on the head. I didn't know what it was, so I went to the glossary.
Kind of like the last song you hear before you get out of the car. You sing it all day. Now will be stuck in my head all night.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
No, you hit it right on the head. I didn't know what it was, so I went to the glossary.
Kind of like the last song you hear before you get out of the car. You sing it all day. Now will be stuck in my head all night.
Fortunately, give the hour such as it is, it will be a short night Sleep welll my friend.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 02:17 AM)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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Quote:
Now will be stuck in my head all night.
Sorry bout that! But thanks for helping me get past the acronym barrier so at least I can have a clue what the heck they're talking about when I read the disscussions!
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models.
Even though this discussion from Pg 1 is as of 11pm, it is even more true at 5am. The latest Official forecast now has Jeaneed inland about Cocooa going up the coast inland and out again near Jax. Intensity is somewhat unclear but should be somewhere around 95 which is definitely Cat-II and conditions do not exclude the possibility of Cat-III at landfallk. Because a large portion of the storm is forecast to remain over water, intensity should not reduce much on its' trip over land. If there is a consolation, this forecast does at least imply much of the affecter area will be on the 'weaker', West side of the track, except for the coast of course which will experience the eye wall or part of it. This is one forecast I hope changes back to the East quickly....we're running out of time to avoid another Hurricane in already hard hit coastal East Central Florida.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 05:32 AM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
Regards
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
I learned a long time to not kill the messager. It isn't your fault wherever it goes.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
While I agree with your last sentence, so far there is nothing to support your first one. The current 5am forecast from the shows Cocoa Beach as the landfall and an exit just S of JAX or St Augustine....that isn't a transvers across the state. Don't make this worse than it is shaping up to be. If you are referring to models, the *official* forecast specifically mention that the models are performing poorly with this storm. I will admit though that its' present path will bring hurricane force winds to your area and that is definitelly not needed in your already hard hit area. Sometimes I forget my own caveat that landfall is not a point, but an area. Also, I can't deny the possibility that transversal could occur if the turn to the NW doesnt occur as predicted. Let's hope that possibility doesn't happen either because that would put Tampa and points in between at risk also.
That said, I can't think of much worse of a forecast for East and North Central Florida residents for this Saturday evening and Sunday other than we *could* be on the NE side of a Cat-III instead of the NW side. From the North and Central coast, I can't think of a worse forecast especially on top of the already badly damaged communities on the coast, and new communities will join the list of devastated or badly damaged areas if this forecast verifies. While there is time for conditions to change that affect the forecast area, time is running out.. At the moment, the 5am forecast says the storm is moving slightly south of due west about 3mph. This allows time for it to gain strength and conditions are somewhat favorable for that to happen. However, if it goes slow enough, it also gives time for the trough expected to move in from the Western US to move East and possibly affect the storm and move it North sooner.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 06:23 AM)
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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Not again!!!! I have been trying to get my house ready for sale all summer to move out to NZ. I don't think Florida wants me to leave, she is trying to keep me here. Or maybe chase me away.
Anyhow, I am near the Daytona area, so once again we need to prepare to be hit pretty hard. My son has missed 13 days thus far from school from and . Will they ever get to finish the school year here?
There is always tomorrow, these tracks seem to keep changing with Jeanne and are not very reliable. We will hang tight and keep our fingers crossed that she stays more to the right.
MaryAnn
Quote:
Looks to me like you guys in east Florida should be preparing once more for some tropical weather! What a season it has been so far for Florida. If Jeanne goes inland then it looks like she will recurve just after landfall and remain just inland while going up towards South Carolina, remaining a powerful system throughout. Intensity forecast could be a bit low i feel. Reckon Jeanne will be a Cat 3 by Friday. Sorry guys.
Regards
Rich B
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Not again!!!! I have been trying to get my house ready for sale all summer to move out to NZ. I don't think Florida wants me to leave, she is trying to keep me here. Or maybe chase me away.
Anyhow, I am near the Daytona area, so once again we need to prepare to be hit pretty hard. My son has missed 13 days thus far from school from and . Will they ever get to finish the school year here?
There is always tomorrow, these tracks seem to keep changing with Jeanne and are not very reliable. We will hang tight and keep our fingers crossed that she stays more to the right.
MaryAnn
For you guys in Ormand Beach, it really does look bleak this morning given the forecast. I can only say that IF this track verifies and if the intensity does increase, I would seriously consider the option to leave Ormond Beach, assuming that the 'Beach' part of your address implies on the island. I hope and pray for all of us that this track does NOT verify and that it does move back out to the East, but time doesn't permit holding ones breath. Action needs to commence now before it becomes too late. I think you'd agree, rather too early than not early enough when a strong storm is involved, especially one basically aimed right at you. Good luck neighbor!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
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I was looking forward to the schools reopening in St. Lucie County next Monday. With the heavy rains and subsequent flooding here this week it wasn't a sure thing in my mind that would happen. The storm that was and is really dumped on us for two days this week. 7.25 inches at my house and yes I did empty the gauge before and during the rain.
The question I have now is for advice on what to do with the many thousands of homes existing with "Blu Roofs". My Plan is to reinforce some of them with wood 1X2 firring strips. This weeks rains not only saturated ground agian but showed the weekness of the plastic and tarps covering so many places. It is going to be a busy next few days and the local Home Depot has been a mad house since before ----sure it will be crazy today.
And BTW I agree with keeping name and while I haven't Thought much about Lisa being overtaken on the surface it would seem logical to keep the already named storm name.
The rant was probably from someone who had some "numbers" for the season that needed boosting.
Come on Florida no time for whining we all know if it happens ,it happens and we just gotta go with it best we can.
Hurric
"Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season"
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
The way it looks to me is trying to make a run for LA. If this happens we will barely see any rain from him.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
I was looking forward to the schools reopening in St. Lucie County next Monday. With the heavy rains and subsequent flooding here this week it wasn't a sure thing in my mind that would happen. The storm that was and is really dumped on us for two days this week. 7.25 inches at my house and yes I did empty the gauge before and during the rain.
The question I have now is for advice on what to do with the many thousands of homes existing with "Blu Roofs". My Plan is to reinforce some of them with wood 1X2 firring strips. This weeks rains not only saturated ground agian but showed the weekness of the plastic and tarps covering so many places. It is going to be a busy next few days and the local Home Depot has been a mad house since before ----sure it will be crazy today.
And BTW I agree with keeping name and while I haven't Thought much about Lisa being overtaken on the surface it would seem logical to keep the already named storm name.
The rant was probably from someone who had some "numbers" for the season that needed boosting.
Come on Florida no time for whining we all know if it happens ,it happens and we just gotta go with it best we can.
Hurric
I absoluely agree with your observations regarding the naming, there *are* more important things to concern ourselves with at the moment. In your case, your neck of the increasingly sparse woods it is indeed likely you will again experience hurricane force winds this weekend if the forecast verifies. I simply don't know how you can protect your home from additional damage because you are right, those tarps won't stand up to wind. You could possibly better use the tarps INDOORS, covering your valuables and sacrificing the roof which isn't protected by the tarps anyway. At least, the furnature and appliances might be kept dry. Also, if the track verifies, it is likely the wind will come from the opposite direction to that which you've already experienced. Keep that in mind if you do try to secure the tarps. Good luck neighbor, we are all going to need it even if the track moves back East somewhat.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
The way it looks to me is trying to make a run for LA. If this happens we will barely see any rain from him.
Tell you what, I'll trade you a brand new Jeanne for a re-tread version of
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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Maybe the house will blow down this time, I will just collect the insurance money, pay off the mortage, sell the land as is, and off I go to NZ. Don't mind me, just sick of this weather.
On a lighter note, no I am not on the penninsula, and will most likely remain here. This house is built like a fortress. I am about 1-2 miles as the bird flys away from the shore, we have the Halifax river on one side and the Tomoka on the other side of us. The biggest worry is flooding. I doubt she will make it to a 3, the water is too cold from .
I am hanging tight.
For you guys in Ormand Beach, it really does look bleak this morning given the forecast. I can only say that IF this track verifies and if the intensity does increase, I would seriously consider the option to leave Ormond Beach, assuming that the 'Beach' part of your address implies on the island. I hope and pray for all of us that this track does NOT verify and that it does move back out to the East, but time doesn't permit holding ones breath. Action needs to commence now before it becomes too late. I think you'd agree, rather too early than not early enough when a strong storm is involved, especially one basically aimed right at you. Good luck neighbor!
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Maybe the house will blow down this time, I will just collect the insurance money, pay off the mortage, sell the land as is, and off I go to NZ. Don't mind me, just sick of this weather.
On a lighter note, no I am not on the penninsula, and will most likely remain here. This house is built like a fortress. I am about 1-2 miles as the bird flys away from the shore, we have the Halifax river on one side and the Tomoka on the other side of us. The biggest worry is flooding. I doubt she will make it to a 3, the water is too cold from .
I am hanging tight.
I hope you are right and that it does not achieve Cat-III but even a Cat-II or strong Cat-I taken as a direct hit is very different than what you received during . Flooding is MUCH more of a likely event if you are even partially in the eye as is quite possible with the forecast. If flooding does occur on the island, which is likely, I hope your fortress can swim. Once you decide and the winds come up, it is too late to change your mind as the bridges will be closed and you'll be trapped on the island. At least, you aren't on the ocean side, but rivers can flood also. In any event, make your decision early and God be with you. We could all be spared if the track forecast changes but I wouldn't count on it improving will be elated if it does improve....soon!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.
I may owe you an apology, The newest graphic on the is differnt from the one in the
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1104W5+GIF/220853W5.gifI truly wish you well.
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 07:06 AM)
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Florida Nurse
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: St. Augustine, Fl
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Want to say that I have been learning more about hurricanes than I ever wanted to know from reading this board, but I'm thankful so many of you understand what is going on far better than I. I''ll attempt to keep stupid comments and questions to a minimum...............now with that said. I'm in St. Augustine and like many of you from Florida, I don't think I can stand another weekend storm watching. I quit watching the weather channel and now just check the forecasts and read the posts here. I was without power for 6 days. I've been on vacation for 3 weeks, but I'm going back to work Tuesday. Just in time to take a cold shower in the mornings again it appears. I think I could use some mood stabilizers right now . I'm not freaking out, just watching. The track has changed so much that I'll reserve getting nervous until tomorrow if the track remains the same.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
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*sigh*
In spite of my potentially crow-eating statement that Jeanne would be hitting FL, I took down the last of my shutters two days ago. I guess I know what I'll be doing tonight
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Want to say that I have been learning more about hurricanes than I ever wanted to know from reading this board, but I'm thankful so many of you understand what is going on far better than I. I''ll attempt to keep stupid comments and questions to a minimum...............now with that said. I'm in St. Augustine and like many of you from Florida, I don't think I can stand another weekend storm watching. I quit watching the weather channel and now just check the forecasts and read the posts here. I was without power for 6 days. I've been on vacation for 3 weeks, but I'm going back to work Tuesday. Just in time to take a cold shower in the mornings again it appears. I think I could use some mood stabilizers right now . I'm not freaking out, just watching. The track has changed so much that I'll reserve getting nervous until tomorrow if the track remains the same.
That sounds like a plan. I would suggest taking the time between now and when you start getting nervous to ensure you've done your preparations as St Augustine, even with a course change, is likely to experience much worse conditions than you've seen so far this year. By tomorrow, your neighbors may start panic buying and the stores may already be 'out' when you get there. Don't panic, but do prepare and restock needed supplies this morning. You can always use unused supplies, if not this year with Lisa, then certainly something...
I pray conditions aren't as bad or worse than before, but we would be foolish to delude ourselves and say it can't happen or won't happen, not in a case like this. I'd rather be over prepared rather than under prepared.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
*sigh*
In spite of my potentially crow-eating statement that Jeanne would be hitting FL, I took down the last of my shutters two days ago. I guess I know what I'll be doing tonight
I *know* I told someone they should just wash the car, then it would only rain...but taking down your shutters....you KNOW what that brings!!!! Shame
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
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Good advice about not waiting. Getting a full tank of gas now and cash out of the bank, as well as any food and water supplies should probably be done today.
I'm in a quandry about whether to stay in our house or to go to a shelter this time around. The shelter was a nightmare. 500 people with no bathrooms, no emergency backup generator, solid waste over flowing onto the main floor, not to mention I'm a bit peoplephobic and being in that crowd in a small place drove me up the wall. Our house was battle tested to 110 MPH winds (maybe more with the gusts) in . We are in Fort Pierce, and got the eye wall several times as the storm rotated (since it was oblong) and our house stood strong. The only concern is tornados. Course a tornado can just as easily rip the roof off a shelter as the house. Shelters have not yet been opened or announced for St. Lucie County, so I guess it's a moot decision until they do and there is still the chance it may go NW early enough to avoid us. I realize that doesn't look good at this point, but you never know. I guess today's forecasts will be the deciding factor. Intensity especially.
I noticed the new 5am advisory didn't have a range of size in relation to hurricane force winds versus tropical storm winds. Is there a place to find out if it's still 45/120 miles respectively?
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Until wakes up and can update his really fine maps for us all,, (he was up late last night, I know), Here is a graphics from Boat.com that will give you some idea about what winds you may experience with the forecast track. I suspect these will change, but if it doesn't, most of the Florida East coast north of about Vero/Palm Beach north to Sourthern North Carolina area will experience hurricane force winds and much of the North Central areas over to almost Tampa will feel TS winds..... Take a look:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands.asp
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 07:45 AM)
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Bubba
Unregistered
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My first post, I have been lurking since Charlie. I can't believe we have another storm heading this way!!  Hopefully it will shift a little right. I still have family at my house who are refugees from , no roof on their house. To make matters worse, I have tickets to the Miami vs. Pittsburgh game in Miami on Sunday!!! I've been waiting 4 months for that game!! Can't leave the house with a Cat II coming in..... Drats.....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If you can't find that information, I would bet they are waiting until recon gets there to measure it so they are accurate about it. The economics of this can not withstand large forecasting errors now. The politics are going to have to get out of the way. People are too tired to react to general information and others simply have no place left to go and no money to get there.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 43 |
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