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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2956
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ivan Is Reborn
      #29834 - Wed Sep 22 2004 06:46 PM

11PM Update
The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models.

9PM
Ivan to be a tropical storm at 11PM EDT advisory...

Karl is still spinning in the atlantic and Lisa is about dead due to what will probably be our next tropical depression behind kt.

Original Update
Amazingly, Ivan has reformed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico nearly a week after it landfalled in the Florida Panhandle / Alabama coast. Which iis up there on my amazing scale. This year is turning out to be the most interesting track years I have ever seen.

Do not focus on exact track of path

Thanks to Skeetobite

The regenerated Ivan is forecast to head toward the Texas coast as a minimal tropical storm. It's center is exposed now, so I think it will remain weak.

Jeanne is starting to make its move, and may be close to the US coastline later this weekend. It's prudent to watch now, especially in the Carolinasl, but as it nears the Bahamas it will be prudent that everyone along the east coast watches it. It seems to be getting stronger tonight.

Event Related Links
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: MikeC]
      #29835 - Wed Sep 22 2004 06:50 PM

could this season get any weirder??

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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Rabbit]
      #29836 - Wed Sep 22 2004 06:56 PM

Now you know that is tempting the fates to show us just how weird it can get. LOL

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teal61
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Redbird]
      #29837 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:00 PM

Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Redbird]
      #29838 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:02 PM

I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name Ivan...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
teal61 [Re: teal61]
      #29841 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:06 PM

The problem is that the way Ivan is right now all the convection is to the north of the actual center. This means if it goes right over you there won't be much rain.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29842 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:07 PM

I was hoping they would change his name. Ivan-a/ Ivana would be semi-appropriate.
I wouldn't wish for rain from this guy. He puts out an awful lot of rain in a hurry.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29843 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:07 PM

I agree Phil. it will only remind and confuse people.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29845 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:08 PM

However, there is reasoning....read Avilia's disco (which is forthcoming)...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: teal61]
      #29846 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:08 PM

Quote:

Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.




If it stays on the current track, I'll be on the dry side...

I'm not trying to wishcast or anything, but I do hope I get some rain out of this....

--------------------
Allison


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Fruit LOOPS! [Re: danielw]
      #29847 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:09 PM

I may go LOOPY pretty soon. Jeanne performing her loop and now Ivan has just completed the mother of all loops. What's next?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Fruit LOOPS! [Re: LI Phil]
      #29848 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:10 PM

Don't ask! They resumed the numbering on the Ivan statements !!!

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:12 PM)


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Fruit LOOPS! [Re: LI Phil]
      #29849 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:11 PM

Fruit Loops not just for breakfast anymore.............LOL

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29850 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:12 PM

Quote:

I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name Ivan...


What does this do to your season numbers foreczst? It *is* a named storm, possibly TS, but it isn't a *new* named storm, or is ti?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Ricreig]
      #29851 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:13 PM

I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. Ivan is still Ivan.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: wxman007]
      #29852 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:16 PM

From Ivan Special Discussion No. 67 referenced by Jason...


after considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of the
demise of Ivan...in the midst of a low-pressure and surface frontal
system over the eastern United States...the National Hurricane
Center has decided to call the tropical cyclone now over the Gulf
of Mexico Tropical Depression Ivan. While debate will surely
continue here and elsewhere...this decision was based primarily on
the reasonable continuity observed in the analysis of the surface
and low-level circulation....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

--------------------
Allison


Edited by Allison (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:17 PM)


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29853 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:17 PM

Quote:

I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. Ivan is still Ivan.


I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: Ricreig]
      #29854 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:21 PM

Quote:

I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way




Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29855 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:23 PM

Quote:


Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.




http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/09/22/plane.diverted.stevens/index.html



--------------------
Allison


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richg
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
Re: Ivan Is Reborn [Re: LI Phil]
      #29856 - Wed Sep 22 2004 07:24 PM

I mostly just read the posts here but I can't resist a trivia question...the answer would be Cat Stevens!

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