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93L improving but not upgraded tonight. 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 110 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3285 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
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Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
Ese at 7 mph
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: scottsvb]
      #30366 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:23 PM

Scott, you have been so accurate lately, that I hope your time to miss one is this one. Guess what is right in the middle of your Pompano Beach to Jupiter track? That would be me here in Boynton Beach. I am dead center between those 2 cities. Here's hoping your wrong. If your wrong I'll buy you a cold beverage, if your right you'll have to buy me one because I won't have anything cold without power.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Vortex Data Recon [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30367 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:30 PM

Does anyone know if there is a recon scheduled any time soon for Jeanne?

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30368 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM

For some reason the attachment did not go through. I'll try again later.

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30369 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM Ivan CENTER HEADED FOR LA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE SABINE THIS EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER
THE HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL FORECAST IN ALREADY IN PLACE. AS IvanS
REMAINS GET INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE UPPER JET EXTENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP VENTILATE
THE SYSTEM AND A SPEED MAX CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ETA
SOLUTION) WILL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A COUPLED JET SCENARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING...THIS WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE YUCATAN WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CORE RAIN EVENT. UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.



I guess the local mets are saying that if Ivan goes slowly to the SW and back maybe back into the gulf than he will bring so much moisture from out of the gulf that it could make a 10-15 inch or maybe even 20 inch rain total.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30371 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:37 PM

New track is in Shifted further west...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Vladimirr
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30372 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM

Quote:

Does anyone know if there is a recon scheduled any time soon for Jeanne?




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

NOAA9 1611A already departed, and should get there around 8pm EDT.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: rhendryx]
      #30373 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM

someone said that the northerly COMPONENT of Jeanne would change, and it did--it is no longer a component, and appears the last few hours to be moving due north Jeanne

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davet
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30374 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM

2. HURRICANE JEANNE
FLIGHT ONE -NO CHANGE FLIGHT TWO - ADDED
A. 24/0600Z A. 24/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1511A JEANNE B. NOAA9 1611A JEANNE
C. 24/0130Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 26.3N 71.8W D. N/A
E. 24/0430Z TO 24/0700Z E. N/A
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA REMAINS A THREAT.
B. PROBABLE G-IV SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT FOR JEANNE
DEPARTING 24/1730Z.
C. FIX OF JEANNE AT 24/1800Z AND PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 25/0600Z.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
SSD still hasLisa and 93L [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30375 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM

Just noting that the Dvorak measurements are still tracking
both Lisa and 93L. So, they're recognizing 2 seperate systems there... still?

Mark


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30376 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:40 PM

Most people here in S. FL are pretty complacent about Jeanne. I think there sick of Hurricanes plus most likely it will not effect S.Fl like further north. First Jeanne was suppose to head to FL., then out to sea, then to the Carolinas, now back to FL.. Ivan was suppose to hit South FL. but of course it didn't and the thinking probably is the same for Jeanne.Plus if you look at the latest loops she looks like she wants to go north and bother nobody.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30377 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM

5pm track is out, still waiting on the DIscussion. Landfall looks to be between Jupiter and PSL as a Cat 3. 72-hour 65nm strike probabilities are 15-20% all up the east coast. Speed now officially WNW at 8.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Rabbit]
      #30378 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM

The eye also appears to be clearing the cloudcover a little. I know its just two frames worth, but could be a trend.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
New fly in the ointment??? [Re: Kdubs]
      #30379 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:46 PM

Now, the NHC says moving WNW but it is expected to go back to due west. Seems like the opposite of what they were saying earlier.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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lois
Unregistered




where is discussion [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30380 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:53 PM

???

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: where is discussion [Re: lois]
      #30381 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:55 PM

Not sure, it was late (later than usual, very close to 11) this morning. Keep in mind that they've got four named storms to issue advisories on, two of which are a direct threat to land...

I'd like to know what happened to the 12Z GFDL run on Jeanne, I can't find it in the usual place...

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: where is discussion [Re: lois]
      #30384 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:57 PM

I got that info. from the public advisory.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: where is discussion [Re: leetdan]
      #30385 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:58 PM

Lisa down to a depression

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
5 Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #30386 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html

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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: where is discussion [Re: Rabbit]
      #30387 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM

Let's hope she does not change like Jeanne did........until it is completely dead, I still watch out.

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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: where is discussion [Re: leetdan]
      #30388 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM

Quote:

I'd like to know what happened to the 12Z GFDL run on Jeanne, I can't find it in the usual place...




NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE JEANNE 11L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.6 69.5 270./ 1.9
6 25.9 70.0 299./ 5.4
12 25.9 70.6 271./ 5.0
18 26.0 71.3 275./ 6.8
24 26.0 72.2 269./ 7.7
30 26.1 73.1 278./ 8.3
36 26.1 74.2 271./ 9.8
42 26.0 75.4 267./10.9
48 26.1 76.5 275./10.5
54 26.3 77.6 281./ 9.5
60 26.7 78.6 289./ 9.6
66 27.0 79.6 287./ 9.8
72 27.6 80.3 310./ 8.6
78 28.2 81.0 313./ 8.6
84 29.0 81.4 334./ 8.5
90 29.9 81.6 345./ 8.6
96 30.9 81.5 6./10.3
102 32.0 81.0 25./12.2
108 33.3 80.1 33./14.6
114 34.3 79.2 44./13.0
120 35.8 77.7 46./18.8
126 37.3 76.1 45./19.7


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