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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Steering Currents
      #30195 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:14 AM

4:40pm Update
5PM Advisories are coming in and the forecast track has shifted a little westward. More to come soon.

3:30pm Update
The Northwestern Bahamas are now under a hurricane watch.

Original Update:

Hurricane Jeanne and Tropical Storm Ivan are the areas of most concern right now.



With Jeanne there is both good and bad news. The bad news is that the steering currents are still weak, and the forecast still makes Florida a target... and we should definitely watch it here in Florida. The slow movement, however, puts a lot of question marks on where exactly it may go.

I know many will be watching its wobbles wondering if it is a trend or not, persistance is the key doing that. Don't read too much into it until a definite movement overal a few hours has occured.


(Thanks Skeetobite)

The National Hurricane Center has moved the forecast track a bit left again and I don't see any reason to doubt it other than the general slow movement of the storm. Since it is moving so slowly things can change, so we all must watch it.

The current timeline is on Sunday if the track verifies.

The good news is that Jeanne probably won't be more than a category 2 storm at landfall, which is enough to cause problems similar to Frances. However, with all the uncertainty with the slow movement it would be prudent to heed warning and advisories that may come up. Prepare a bit and plan actions if Hurricane Watches or Warnings are set up on advice of local agencies.


Ivan has strengthened this morning to a 60MPH Tropical storm, but winds won't be Ivan Part ]['s claim to fame this time. More on Ivan later. Steering currents are weak for Ivan as well, so we may still not be done with Ivan even after it landfalls on the TX/LA coastline.

Lisa and Karl still are Fish Spinners, but the system behind Lisa will need to be watched later on.

More to come.

Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

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DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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lois
Unregistered




when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t [Re: MikeC]
      #30201 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:25 AM

waiting to see

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t [Re: lois]
      #30202 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:31 AM

This could be worse than Frances if it stays just off the coast and batters the beaches all the way up through Fl,Ga,SC and NC.

I think the attitude with most Floridians is simply one of
resigned readiness.

I have a feeling Jeanne may turn before the coast but it's just my gut feeling.
So far this season, the halo of protection that seemed to be over the peninsula of Florida for so many years has seemed to evaporate.

Hope for the Best.
I'll be away from the computer for awhile...my best to everyone on the board. See you on the other side of Jeanne


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: MikeC]
      #30203 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM

I just emailed a friend of mine who does work at Mayport Naval Station. They'll know more than we do (and faster) and if he emails me back saying that they're moving ships out to sea, I think that might give you an idea. If they DON'T move the ships out to sea......it might make you sick to your stomach.
Might not hear back from him immediately, but when I do, I'll let you know.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t [Re: lois]
      #30204 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 AM

lt sure looks to me after watching both the IR and WV loops over the last couple of hours that the eye is heading NW, not west... is it eye wobble from this ERC..? Perhaps but I don't think so.

Will the approaching wave push it back south onto the latest NHC track?... who knows. But it does seem to already be a little more north of the predicted path...

AdmittedHacker


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #30205 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:35 AM

True. The surf has been huge the last few days, with the storm mostly north and east of us the Bahamas weren't there to block the swells. It's only going to get worse the closer this thing gets, and frankly we aren't going to have much beach left no matter when it curves north.

There's still debris all over the place in Palm Beach, as numb as I've become to hurricanes this season I still have a pretty sick feeling about Jeanne.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Tally
Unregistered




Re: when does next nogaps come out, does anyone know n/t [Re: lois]
      #30206 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:36 AM

Has anyone seen the FSU Super Ensemble track for Jeanne today?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Ugh [Re: lois]
      #30207 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM

The insanity continues...get this...JB has thrown the idea out that Ivan, after he landfalls a second time, will be forced back out into the GOM, possibly near the AL/FL border, where he originally went in...THEN could redevelop again in the GOM... Since he nailed the return of Ivan before, I would give credence to this possibility...good lord.

There is no good news for FL east coast residents, unfortunately. My crow munching forecast will be given this afternoon...but I will throw out the possibility that Jeanne will become a MAJOR cane and landfall as such...in Florida.

I urge, make that STRONGLY urge, all you guys (and you know who you are) to bring your preps to fruition now! Get the shutters BACK up, supplies handy, cash on hand, and the car gassed up. By now you know the drill so I don't have to remind you.

Anxiously awaiting Skeeter's next map...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30208 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:37 AM

Isn't it the other way around? Sea ports are generally emptied out ahead of the storm, the damage a freighter (or destroyer) could cause being washed onshore would be absurd. I'm failry sure Mayport isn't sheltered enough, and protocol is to put out to sea if they expect a hit.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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cmdebbie
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30209 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:38 AM

Quote:

As for firsts, here's another one. I have a better chance of determining the outcome of Scott Peterson's trial than I do of determining where Jeanne will make landfall.




So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Steering Currents [Re: cmdebbie]
      #30210 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:44 AM

Quote:

Quote:

As for firsts, here's another one. I have a better chance of determining the outcome of Scott Peterson's trial than I do of determining where Jeanne will make landfall.




So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?




I'll take a stab at this...he's to die for!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Climatology Says.... [Re: cmdebbie]
      #30211 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:45 AM

At the end of the last thread, Ed in VA posted that climatology shows that in September, cat 1 and 2 storms never hit FL from this position. True, but what if she is a cat 3 ?

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30213 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:46 AM

its 11:40 am here in st cloud (45 some miles from melbourne) waiting for the 12 o'clock news to find some info out. very very calm weather here today. I just finished putting my boards back up and checking the rest of my supplies. I am set the kids are set and my house is set. All i can say is head the warnings that you are given cause you never know what can happen. Yes i am scared but what can i do? Prepare prepare prepare. No notices of Emergency management places opening as of yet but i predict they will this evening into the morning. Thank god the City of St cloud came and removed all the dead branches garbage and etc fromt he past storms. drainage ditches are finally clear and well hopefully we wont get 2 ft of rain on my street this time. It was a terrible thing to walk downthe street in so much water. Thanks again for all your wonderful insights here. all of your ino has helped out n the past and i know will continue in the future. Keep it up guys!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
hard time with Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30214 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:47 AM

Been struggling over Jeanne like most and I'm having a hard time determining where she might go... However, the season's trend for Florida have been on the left solution, and because of that, and the underselling of the Bermuda ridge all season by most of the models, I really think (at the moment) this WILL BE another FLORIDA event... space coast looks as good a spot as any right now... this has been a really tough one to call... but that's where I'm leaning at the moment, however, unlike Frances, I think if anything it could be more north of the Space Coast as opposed to south like Frances was... still to early.. need to see some data on the ridge and what's expected of it during the next 3-5 days..

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: Climatology Out the window this year [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30215 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM

havent you noticed??

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

high built in strong from nne of jeanne
new part of high building in on nnw side if u ask me
u judge

where does bastardi think it will hit i wonder
didnt know he was big in intensity forecasting

notice as colleen said.. no one is talking where as much as intensity suddenly

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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leo
Unregistered




Re: Ugh [Re: LI Phil]
      #30216 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:49 AM

Hey,
We are on the Georgia coast between Savannah and Jax. Do any of you think Jeanne will have an impact on our area? We're in a sort of sort of tucked in area of the coastline and usually get missed by the hurricanes.


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30217 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM

Hey Phil,

I forgot to tell you a while back, CFHC was also mentioned in an article in Newsweek, I believe the second one after Charley. I will look it up and let you know the issue.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: leetdan]
      #30218 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:50 AM

Maybe I didn't phrase it right, here's what I meant to say:

If Mayport sends it ships out to sea, then yes, they would be expecting a hit. I believe (and with all the storms we've had, I could be wrong) that he said the ships were about to go out to sea when Frances was approaching and at the last minute they cancelled it. That was because Frances turned and hit the central East coast of Florida and was forecast to go across the state, not UP the state as previously believed. I don't think they ever did anything with Ivan because Ivan was never expected to be a east coast storm, so I'm pretty sure it was Frances.

If they believe the same scenario that happened with Frances will occur with Jeanne, then they more than likely would NOT move them out to sea, as she would pose no catastrophic threat to the ships. They made it through Frances and I'm sure they've seen worse out at sea on a regular trip. Of course, they will have information sooner than we will, so I would *guess* that they are preparing the ships to go out and they have 4 days until it even hits Central/South Florida, so I don't know exactly how soon they would make the decision to go out to sea. It's a lot of manpower and a 24 hour job, so they don't just do it to do it.
So, what I mean when I said if they "don't" move the ships out to sea it will make you sick to your stomach was that they don't expect it to have a large effect on Mayport Naval Station.
Hope I cleared that up.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Sunday & Monday [Re: MikeC]
      #30219 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM

Jeanne's long weekend get away (up close & personal):

Includes true scale wind fields (maritime)



Full size available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Ugh [Re: LI Phil]
      #30220 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM

Are you saying he thinks it could make another landfall in the North central Gulf????

I posed this scenario on the previous thread, but did not see a response. Will Ivan go down on record with the most landfalls???

Edited by jth (Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM)


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ugh [Re: leo]
      #30221 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM

The current track brings her right along the coast where you are. I would stay vigilant with this storm especially.

Kyle

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Liz L.]
      #30222 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM

Lois,

Catch the 12Z NOGAPS HERE!

Phil,

You got that part wrong. Ivan would possibly loop SW down through Texas and emerge into the southern Gulf. He's worried about the Southern Gulf anyway, but notes that that if it's Ivan, it's a "pre-existing spin" and parallels thereafter with Opal are real (though almost unimanginable).

WX2,

What, we've had 5 (essentially) Florida landfalls already this year? Bonnie, Charlie, Frances x 2, Ivan (though technically a Baldwin Co., Alabama landfall, damage was at least as bad and in some cases worse in Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties, FL.

Should Jeanne make it to the Peninsula, then possibly Ivan Part III, it would really be an unprecidented year for your people.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JB [Re: Steve]
      #30224 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:55 AM

Sorry Steve, I goofed...a little...here's what he said:

"But then the potential argument is, would it be Ivan? The question would be answered easily if I knew it would do what I fear, which is simply march along the Texas coast, then turn southeastward early next week into the Gulf near 25 and 92.5 by Tuesday. Then it would start northeastward. In the ultimate irony, it would head back toward where it hit in the first place. "

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: cmdebbie]
      #30225 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:57 AM

I normally would PM you, but you're not registered, so I can't.

Quote:

So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?




GUILTY. The jury is now laughing at Geragross (sp mistake intentional) when he does his cross; 7 weeks ago they were laughing with him.
Not a good sign for Mr. Liar Liar Pants On Fire.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: JB [Re: LI Phil]
      #30226 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 AM

No problem Phil.

Bobbi,

Unfortunately the loop at NOGAPS isn't working yet, so you have to step them yourself from the FNMOC site right here.

What is very interesting is the NOGAPS is now going with a double Florida landfall scenario (making it #6 and #7 on the year). I think it may be a bit far west, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30227 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM

Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Climatology Out the window this year [Re: LoisCane]
      #30228 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM

Is the high on the nnw side good or bad? Help me out.

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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lois
Unregistered




well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30229 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:09 PM

she wont go very far north in her westward progress which would make it harder to miss the state

opens ups doors for other possibilities too

also could keep her out there longer which could in time enhance her strength and bring her in stronger..

storms cant go where the high builds in
that is my question on this current scenario

that is what worries me
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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lois
Unregistered




ps [Re: lois]
      #30230 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:11 PM

since beginning of the loop dry air/high pressure has eaten up all of north carolina and moving down to gobble up south carolina

if storm was moving fast now.. could see where forecast works well

but she isnt moving too fast and if the high creeps further down the coast line.. worried about NOGAPS scenario not being so far fetched and dont see how GFDL verifies


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30231 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:14 PM

>>> Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.

Actually, Skeeter is using NHC coords to make his awesome maps, and unless I'm mistaken, it's showing 2 landfalls...however, hurricanes don't move in the straight line shown, so it's more likely at the moment that it's just one landfall, then riding up the coast inland. This forecast path will change with each new model run, so use the map for guidance and preparation only...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: lois]
      #30232 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM

All 3 models,,,,,Nogaps, GFS, and CMC have landfall in florida now. GFS does still take it NW but this time just alittle more w then last run making landfall near Jupiter,fl then NW near Orlando then N. NOGAPS takes her into Ft Lauderdale across to Ft Myers and the CMC is alittle north with landfall near Vero Beach across the state to Tampa. Havent seen the Ukmet yet and also the GFDL. All so far make landfall in 66-72hrs. I expect hurricane watches will go up for Bahamas this evening at 5pm and 5am on Friday morning from Dade (should be Broward county) north to around Flager beach. Not sure though how far north but they might have a long strech due to possilbe turn NW near the coast or over the state.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: LI Phil]
      #30233 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM

I have been lurking for a few months and I finally registered today. I am 26.2N and I am getting worried. I have supplies and I filled my tank this am. My prayers to all of us!
26.2N 80.1W


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: JB [Re: Steve]
      #30234 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM

The CMC is calling for a double FL hit too. Oh boy!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30235 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM

Quote:

Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.




We have the precision down to about 100 meters on these maps, based on NHC coordinates.

Personally, I think it will track left, just like all of the prior storms this year. Seems to be a huge "right bias" to the models and NHC guidance. Novice observation - spotting trends is easier than predicting them ;-)


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30236 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:20 PM

Thanks for the tip..............................it helps

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30237 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM

12Z GFS shows her coming in near FT. Lauderdale, over Lake Okeechobee, towards Tampa and it ends there at 84 hours. Waiting for more frames.

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COgal
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30238 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM

I would rather not have Jeanne coming anywhere near Florida but if she INSISTS on riding the coast like this I can only be thankful that most of the time the NE quad doesn't cover land.
Thank you Skeetobite for such informative maps!


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: COgal]
      #30239 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM

Yeah those of us right on the coast would feel it way before you if she came in closer though...........northeast quad going right over titusville............not comforting.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30240 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM

Scott,
That would out me in the NE quadrant I am north of Lauderdale and South of Boca. Looks like I'll be evacuating tomorrow. I live on the beach.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Climatology Says.... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30241 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 PM

Quote:

At the end of the last thread, Ed in VA posted that climatology shows that in September, cat 1 and 2 storms never hit FL from this position. True, but what if she is a cat 3 ?




Climatalogically speaking, the section of the Gulf Coast that was hit by Ivan does not get hit by storms that strong. Among other items, this is not a climatalogically normal season.

--------------------
Jim


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scottsvb
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Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30242 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM

Ft Lauderdale? My eyesight must be bad, I see it near Jupiter to Orlando to Jacksonville. OLD AGE AT 34 I guess.

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SoonerShawn
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Ivan [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30243 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM

I think I'm going to turn my attention to Jeanne and hope that somehow she stays clear of Florida. Ivan is pretty much a dud now. I don't think there will be much with him even where he does make landfall. I know that is good news, but we did need a little bit of rain here. I would much rather have this than another Allison,though. All you in Florida stay safe!!!

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Kent
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Who to blame? [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30244 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:36 PM

Homestead Florida:
Four children and their father were killed in a house fire last night. They were all trapped in a bedroom. Their mother was in the hospital after giving birth to a baby girl. Hurricane shutters were to blame for the deaths.

Which one of these f-ing storms gets to claim them? I seriously feel like we are gonna lose it soon. Too much heartache.

I can't even process Haiti right now.

This has all just been to much.


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: scottsvb]
      #30245 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:40 PM

Scottsvb, are you looking at the 6z GFS run. 12Z is definitely further west, but its hard to tell if its near Miami or WPB or Stuart since its hard to figure where exactly the center is.....north side of the "L" or the middle. Check the run you're looking at.

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AgentB
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Re: Who to blame? [Re: Kent]
      #30246 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:41 PM

Been watching the sat loops lately, and the WV loop is of particular interest to me. It appears that Jeanne is getting stretched out a little. You can clearly see the high building down almost right on top of her, and part of the convection surrounding her heads back east, and another part gets pulled up to the NW towards the SC/GA border. The high even seems to building down just in front of her a bit, and it will be interesting to see exactly how far south it can get.

--------------------
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scottsvb
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Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30247 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:42 PM

yeah i was looking at the 12Z run. Looks to me like Jupiter but yeah your right it dont matter cause its 72 hrs out and models will change alittle each run.

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LI Phil
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What AgentB said... [Re: AgentB]
      #30248 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:45 PM

Jeanne WV

Not exactly sure what she's doing...if she's undergoing an ERC, that can't be good...because ERC's usually only take place in MAJOR canes...

scott...what do you make of the loop?

--------------------
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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Who to blame? [Re: Kent]
      #30249 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM

Here's a link to the story about the family in Homestead,FL.
http://www.nbc6.net/news/3754058/detail.html


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Colleen A.
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Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: lois]
      #30250 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM

Oh, Lois...I do NOT like the look of that loop.

--------------------
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SoonerShawn
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Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30251 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:50 PM

THURSDAY POST

HERE'S Ivan....THERE'S JEANNE...STORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST..

As we told you yesterday, the system in the Gulf did indeed become a tropical storm and the question this morning is..will Ivan become a hurricane prior to landfall. The answer is maybe. Ok, it will be close. If the storm continues to move west towards Galveston, then it has the chance to develop. In any case, winds will start to pick along the upper Texas coast and the Louisiana coast with gusts 50-60 mph. The other concern today will be the heavy rain and flooding. Through this afternoon, the band of convection moving up the back side of Ivan will eventually move into New Orleans. I can see several inches of rain, perhaps more, across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The next area for heavy rain will over Houston tonight. At this time, the convection around the center is sparse, but give it time and we should se thunderstorms developing in and around the center.




This guy will not give up! He is suppose to do a report on Jeanne later. I can only imagine what he'll say about her.


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AgentB
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30252 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:52 PM

Here's the NW Atlantic WV loop that shows the "big picture" regarding the high pressure building in and Jeanne getting "stretched out".

NW Atlantic WV Loop

--------------------
Check the Surf


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MO Stormspotter
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30253 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:57 PM

Please define ERC

(Yep I am still learning...)


Thanks


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Colleen A.
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30254 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM

Wow...if that high comes down any further, I think we're looking at Steve H's scenario. Over Lake Okeechobee? Yikes...wonder how warm the water is there. Since it's not that far inland, *if* it does go across it, we're also looking at the possibility about her still being a 'cane as she crosses the peninsula.
There should be a law.......
Where are they showing the second landfall in Florida...wait, let me guess: the Panhandle?

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Thunder
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #30255 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM

"Please define ERC

(Yep I am still learning...)"




Eye replacement cycle...Right? I'm still learning too.

Edited by Thunder (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:01 PM)


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from Gainesville
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: Thunder]
      #30256 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:02 PM

I think it's actually EYEWALL replacement cycle. Essentially the same thing, I guess...

Actually the eye and the eyewall are quite different...a lot of us WISH they'd undergo an Eye replacement!

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM)


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Thunder
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30257 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:03 PM

Quote:

I think it's actually EYEWALL replacement cycle. Essentially the same thing, I guess...




Right you are!
I didn't think you Gators were that bright... I stand corrected!

Thanks,
T

Edited by Thunder (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:05 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30258 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:04 PM

It's Eyewall Replacement Cycle

Here's a great link explaining it in much better terms than I ever could.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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danielwAdministrator
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Re:Noon visible shots [Re: Thunder]
      #30259 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM

Here's some shots of Ivan,jr and Jeanne.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES16402004267JwNxGQ.jpg

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES165520042673IadrR.jpg


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Colleen A.
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30260 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:08 PM

Yes, it would be "eyewall replacement cycle" which basically happens when a storm is trying to get herself back together. If you look at the visibles, she isn't looking all that ragged to me. She may be going through a "strengthening stage", much like Ivan did on several 100 occasions.
Recon will better be able to tell us where the "eyewall" is and if there is a pressure drop, etc.
I sure hope people are paying attention to their local media, or they might be in for a big surprise.

--------------------
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AgentB
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30261 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:13 PM

The one thing on that WV loop that has caught my eye over and over again is where the storms leaving Jeanne heading west have gone. For quite a while they have followed a channel of sorts to the NW and up towards SC. Obviously the high is still building in so that "channel" will move. However, I'm still wondering if she will even get moved along by the edge of that ridge because it looks like it's trying to setup right in front of her. One thing I have taken some note of is that this high pressure was pretty strong, and all the models this year seem to have had trouble factoring the strength of the ridges into their forecast paths.

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Colleen A.
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Is Jeanne Growing? [Re: LI Phil]
      #30262 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:15 PM

Looks like Jeanne is becoming larger on the last loops...I also noticed that if you mark the "forecast points" on the GOES Floater, it appears to be moving a little north of due west. Will have to wait and see if that's a trend or not. Hopefully, it's a trend and she'll start turning to the NW soon.

Well, I can dream, can't I?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Kent
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Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: LI Phil]
      #30263 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:22 PM

Sorry but I had to vent...I feel better now:

A few days before Jeanne and all through my town'
1000's of psycho's are rushing around
Publix was restocked but now shelves are bare
but managers promise more ice will be there

Hardware stores crammed with a line out the door
prepare yet again to restock their store
They frantically call and beg their suppliers
send us more tarps, more tapcons more pliers!

We need flashlights and lanterns and lots of propane
Our customers seem to have just gone insane!
they are buying things we thought no one would buy
its good for the business, but you gotta ask why?

Where is the stuff that they bought just last week
when Hurricane Ivan had caused them to freak?
He went down below us and off to the west
so why are you they back here on this new quest?

Donations were sent. Oh yes, now we see!
The victims of Ivan have that rope for your tree.
So back in they come and swarm all the aisles
sorting through tapcons and battery piles.

The frenzy gets worse as the day turns to night
and all are familiar with one certain sight
The people are huddled around their tv's
waiting to hear about Jeannes next big breeze

Will she come closer? When will she turn?
As my sister up north asks "when will you learn?"
Hammers are banging once more on plywood
covering windows cause Jeanne in the 'hood.

She's spinning due west and won't go away
silently stalking her Florida prey
We thought she had gone out to sea long ago
but now she is back with a FRANCIS echo

The wench is now aiming at poor Vero Beach
the center of Florida is well within reach
The place is in turmoil there's no gas again
I haven't seen gas cans since I don't know when!

Hurricane season is not over yet
We're only at "L" in the darn alphabet!
So pardon our whining and constant obsession
but we feel like we all have got manic depression!

Thank you...thank you very much


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AgentB
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Re: Is Jeanne Growing? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30264 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:24 PM

Colleen, can definitely see what you mentioned as far as the more north than west movement is concerned. As far as Jeanne growing I'm not sure if it's because she's becoming stronger, or because the convection around her is getting pulled further out from the center a bit. The one thing I noticed was that they eye appeared to become cloud covered again like has been happening off and on for the past few days.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Is Jeanne Growing? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30265 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM

Colleen, you have a good eye for detail. I agree that Jeanne is getting larger. I think it may be because the eastern semicircle has developed excellent outflow now. The nautilus shell look.
Here's a closeup WaterVapor shot.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES17102004267YT832T.jpg


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30266 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:26 PM

That was GREAT Kent

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sthorne
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30267 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:27 PM

For my first post after becoming registered, after lurking since Floyd, I shall send Kent a rousing round of applause.

Sandy
Another tired Treasure Coast resident


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Kent
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30268 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:28 PM

Thank you
and you are my witness to this madness right?
You must be just a few miles away.

I'll PM you later...we'll talk


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Colleen A.
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Re: What AgentB said... [Re: AgentB]
      #30269 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:32 PM

BINGO. The models have not performed well with the H this season; however, intensity wise I think they have done (unfortunately) quite well. If she threads the needle between the two Bahama Island chains, she won't hit land (ala Ivan), therefore there is a chance that instead of losing intensity, she may gain it.
How much more can Florida take at this point? My kids think hurricanes are now a weekend thing.
My mother is having a cow and a bird because we are/were supposed to leave for Port St. Joe's tomorrow (well, I am anyway) and she had NO IDEA that Jeanne had turned around until I told her. She cancelled it on Sunday to October, then decided on Monday to change it back to this weekend.
When I mentioned to her this morning about Jeanne, she said, "I DON'T EVEN WANT TO HEAR IT."
Now she just called me and said, "NOW WHAT DO WE DO? HUH? DAMNED JEANNE! YOU SAID IT WAS GOING OUT TO SEA!"

Uh, no, I did NOT. I told her that they thought the Carolinas, but it was too early to tell. So, now it's my fault that the hurricane is headed towards Florida to ruin our week at the beach.

Please, just add a little more stress to my life than I've had in the past month and 1/2. As if I am WISHING for it to head towards my general direction. Now she wants to know what she should do...reschedule it or keep it for this weekend. I told her to do whatever she wants, but if I have a major hurricane coming my way, I'm not leaving the kids. I can't, because 1)they'd freak out if I was there and they were here and 2) my husband has already called me to tell me that he's gonna be busy with the phosephate plants, so who would watch them? ACK!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30270 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:33 PM

I am your witness and I am just a few miles away....

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Colleen A.
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30271 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:35 PM

EXCELLENT KENT!!!!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Florida Nurse
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30272 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:36 PM

Bravo................I completely understand, unfortunately.

---Kelly W.


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Sadie
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Re: Is Jeanne Growing? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30273 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM

Quote:


............do the best you can to redirect your reaction to the situation into constructive activities and thoughts. Hard to do, easy to say, but it is the only thing a human can do to make it better. I am stressed as much as anyone, and I admit it, but I try to counter that stress by participating in this forum, learning as much as I can about the forces at work, and maybe most importantly, preparing and executing a plan of action that will give me the best opportunity not only to survive, but to minimize my own property loss. Beyond that, I try and see the humor in the situation, you know, comic relief. It really does help me and I would suspect others such as yourself. I worry about the things I can do something about and do my darndness to avoid worrying about the things I cannot affect.

Try to convert your stress and frustration into something positive. *Finding* that positive substitute is both challanging and believe it or not, reduces the stress by diverting your attention to positive actions and thoughts.





As anxiety levels rise with the approach of Jeanne, these are words to remember. Thanx Richard. Excellent advice.

A heads up to any horse owners out there. There was a tragic barn fire in Pinellas County caused by bringing shavings into the barn to keep them dry. Spontaneous combustion. Lost 11 horses. Horrible story.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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sthorne
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30274 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:37 PM

The greatest insanity so far was the relatives who went to rent a Ditch Witch this morning, until the helpful folks at Lowe's pointed out it would SINK into the wet ground. So, they are out in this heat with shovels digging a ditch around their house.

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Colleen A.
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Ditch Witch [Re: sthorne]
      #30275 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:47 PM

That story can only be topped by the maniacs in the Tampa Bay area who stood in line for HOURS for plywood -- some beating the crap out of each other -- only to bring it BACK when Ivan was no longer a threat.
Um, did the NHC release a statement that Ivan would be the last hurricane of the year and I just missed it? What were these people thinking? Never mind, I don't want to know.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Redbird
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Re: Ditch Witch [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30276 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:49 PM

Colleen nice to see you back in here.......................your mom is probably just real frightened right now.

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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Is Jeanne Growing? [Re: AgentB]
      #30277 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:50 PM

You're right... I said that earlier too. For the 3+ hours Jeanne has been north of the predicted due west course. I get a course of 280/290 for the last several hours. This is good for south FL, but perhaps not so good for points north...

AdmittedHacker


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Kimberley Clark
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30278 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM

VERY GOOD!!!! Just something that I'm sure that some of you have already thought about. My family and co-workers think sometimes that I am a weather freak, but I rinse out milk jugs and 2 liter bottles and fill them with water and put them in the deep freeze. Also, as soon as my ice maker gets full, I empty it into doubled up Wal-Mart bags and put them in the freezer. My family didn't seem to mind so much when we didn't have to stand in water and ice lines. Just something I thought might help with the ones who have power. It works for me.

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

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Justin in Miami
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Jeanne [Re: Redbird]
      #30279 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 PM

Well, for those who have the information on model plots, Ft. Lauderdale is near the N26.07 degree lattitude. Please compare and let us know. I will say this...many people down here are "hurricaned out." There is a kind of disbelief that this storm is on the way to this area. What is funny is that on Tuesday I took down all the shutters and plywood on the house. ugh.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Ditch Witch [Re: Redbird]
      #30280 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:55 PM

No, she's not frightened, believe me. She's MAD.

I just have to believe that things will work out the way they are supposed to and whatever happens, happens. Nothing I can do about Mother Nature.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Liz C
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30281 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:57 PM

This is my 1st post...I have not been able to stay away from this site or the NRC site. I have learned alot.

I love the Ode to Hurricane....it gave me a smile on my worried face.....thank you.

And thank you all for such an informatative site.....I have been tracking hurricanes as a hobby since moving to Daytona in 1974 from Long Island (Suffolk County)

I hope that Jeanne turns north asap. I went without power 1 week each after Charlie and then Frances.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Not Anxious Anymore about Storms [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30282 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:58 PM

I am no longer anxious about storms anymore. At the age of 35 I have beat a deadly form of Bladder Cancer, and 3 hurricanes (andrew, Charley, Frances) so whats one more. My house has seen better days after this storm, my yard is now an extension of Lake Toho, but I am no longer stressing. Annoyed yes.. Its always such an inconvenience and the cleanup and aftermath are hell, but we are all alive.. Hopefully this will me our last scare of the year, and then our lives can quiet down some. Lifes just one big adventure.. right ?


Hopefully I do not have a cats life, as I would only have 5 more to go..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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LI Phil
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Re: Jeanne [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #30283 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM

Why do people return plywood? Even if you don't have to put it up, there's always the next storm to worry about...never understood that.

2:00 advisory is out...she's still 105 mph and further strengthening is possible...pressure 966mb. 25.8N 70.0W.

Bad news is she's moving W at 6 mph...when is the northward turn supposed to start?

--------------------
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Kal
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Steve]
      #30284 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 PM

Wow. Some models suggesting the possibility of a second Jeanne landfall in FL?! Bastardi seeing potential for an Ivan 3.0 heading for the AL/FL border? As if life in the war zone known as Santa Rosa County, FL wasn't fun enough already.

Thank God my belated honeymoon starts this weekend...in Northern Minnesota.


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clyde w.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Kal]
      #30285 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:01 PM

Hmmm, check out this link:

NHC Floater

Add in the forecast plot points. Do you get a due west storm into Lake Okechobee as a Cat 3!?!?!?! Did I just get a preview of the 5:00 forecast??


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jlauderdal
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Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30286 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:02 PM

Quote:

Why do people return plywood? Even if you don't have to put it up, there's always the next storm to worry about...never understood that.

2:00 advisory is out...she's still 105 mph and further strengthening is possible...pressure 966mb. 25.8N 70.0W.

Bad news is she's moving W at 6 mph...when is the northward turn supposed to start?




well this is florida and people do very strange things like take shutters down earlier this week when jeanne was sitting out there and there is 6 weeks to go..i took 50% of my down after Frances and am glad i only have 50% to put up the nexxt 2 days


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Colleen A.
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2 Landfalls in Florida? [Re: Kal]
      #30287 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM

What are the models predicting as far as a 2nd landfall...I mean where? Thanks.

--------------------
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Justin in Miami
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Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30288 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 PM

I don't think you can return plywood. thankfully I only have a couple of sheets. I DO NOT like the NOGAPS model anymore.

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leetdan
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Re: Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30289 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:05 PM

As I've mentioned elsewhere, storms bring out both the best and the worst in people. There are people out there that are so petty (yes, some desperately need every penny they have, but this IS Florida) that they'll take back anything they can. If you ask me, the issue is that Lowes/Home Depot etc. accept plywood (and even generators) being returned after a storm.

I'm still a few years away from owning my first home, but I can guarantee the first thing I'll do is make sure it has shutters installed.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
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LI Phil
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30290 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:06 PM

The floater with the forecast points is down right scary, but that's NOT the official NHC 5-day track. A tad more west than the 11:00 (big shock there).

I urge everyone to click on the WV Loop and add the forecast points (the little box at the top of the right hand side of the frame)...puts a CAT III in the middle of Lake Okeechobee...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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AgentB
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Kal]
      #30291 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM

Well the NHC says west, but from 11am-2pm she did move west and north, in almost equal increments. Something I made note to keep track of was where she crossed 70W. Right now she is sitting on top of 70W at 25.8N. With the 5AM discussion this morning it was looking like she would pass 70W(actually 70.5W) at about 25.4N(11AM it was revised to 70W around 25.6N), so she's already almost a half a degree further north than that(about .2 degrees further north than the 11am disc.). And she could possibly be even further north by the time she reaches 70.5W Most forecasts had her heading due west along the same latitude for a while then turning NW/N. Definitely have to keep an eye on whether she travels along 25.8N or continues to gain latitude.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Jeanne [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #30292 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:07 PM

Quote:

I don't think you can return plywood. thankfully I only have a couple of sheets. I DO NOT like the NOGAPS model anymore.




I used to work at Scotty's in New Smyrna Beach about 10 years ago or so while I was in college at UCF -- at the return desk of all things. We took Plywood back if it was in good condition (Ie no holes drilled in it, not warped, etc) and that was the only case. We did have people try to return things that were used like that, and basically politely turned them away on it and suggested to save it for the next storm.

Also, don't bother with 1/4" plywood, 1/2" or greater is the only thing that'll really do much. And during some cases people were buying hardwood plywood (which is massively expensive) to use for boarding up. It works, but it's a big waste in my opinion.


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Redbird
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Re: Ditch Witch [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30293 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:08 PM

Just keep an eye on her................yeah I am resigned to it as well since I am more the bullseye right on the coast.. One day at a time...................

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clyde w.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30294 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:09 PM

LI Phil--I looked at both a little more closely, and I think the forecast track overlay is off somehow. I think those are the forecast plot points for lattitude, but somehow they've been skewed for longitude.

Or.. a major track shift is about to occur since these are NHC links. But I think what I wrote above is probably the case. Sorry for the confusion.


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Kal
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Re: 2 Landfalls in Florida? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30295 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:11 PM

Colleen - I was referring to the posted link earlier in this thread that showed Jeanne passing through FL and seemingly toward the Panhandle/Big Bend.

CMC
Hopefully it won't play out that way.

For the first time in my life I'm suffering from hurricane fatigue. I guess a hit will do that to you. Maybe as a weather hobbiest I should focus on something a little less potent for awhile....like...fog.

Edited by Kal (Thu Sep 23 2004 02:13 PM)


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cocoa Beach
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: AgentB]
      #30296 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM

I agree:
from 11-2pm she moved almost equally.
.2 N and .3 W


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Ed in Va
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Link [Re: Kal]
      #30297 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:12 PM

Link didn't work.??

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30298 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:16 PM

WHAT THE HECK IS THAT???? NOT THE SAME SHOW FROM EARLIER TODAY!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances

Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Thu Sep 23 2004 02:19 PM)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30299 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:17 PM

I think its fairly close to the forecasted track.. Maybe a little off, but you know how these things can wobble.. So I guess I am not sure if this is that far off from what was expected. I am not sure how much of an effect this will have on the track. Seems like most models are now pretty clustered on a westward movement, at least for the next day or so..

--------------------
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AdmittedHacker
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: AgentB]
      #30301 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM

True, from the 11:00 am. to the 2:00 pm update Jeanne traveled 24 miles on a course of 306 degrees. That's a WNW course in my book... but I'll defer to the experts. I'm sure they see things that I cannot and if they say it's going west, it must be going west, right?

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Ormond Suzie
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30302 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:20 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, check out this link:

NHC Floater

Add in the forecast plot points. Do you get a due west storm into Lake Okechobee as a Cat 3!?!?!?! Did I just get a preview of the 5:00 forecast??






The forecast points go with the last two frames of the floater - for some reason, it has jumped from a longer shot to a closer-up one. The points show throughout the loop, put only go with the last two frames - I think.


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LI Phil
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30303 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:22 PM

Check out this full basin wv loop. Marone (sp?).

How is this thing gonna turn north? Look at that Ridge!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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Frank P
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30304 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM

one other distrubing thing about that WV loop Phil, and I'm sure you noticed, that ridge looks relatively solid to the NE of the system and perhaps looks to be building to the wsw... which if comes to fruition, would make it even worse for Florida.... the ridge will be the key, as it was for Frances and Ivan... forecast really quite simple with Jeanne now, it will follow the southern rim of the ridge along its outer edge.... now where will be ridge set up as it approaches landfall is the big question???

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palmetto
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Re: Link [Re: Ed in Va]
      #30305 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:23 PM

In the latest WV picture, Jeanne's looking a little embryonic.

Does anyone else see that?


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clyde w.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #30306 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:24 PM

I'm buying what you're selling...I thought I was losing my mind...

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Rasvar
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30307 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:25 PM

The ridge definately appears to be building in. I suspect the northerly component of the motion will end soon. I would not be surprised to see some southerly movement later on with the way that ridge is setting up.

--------------------
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flbeachbumz
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Rasvar]
      #30308 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:27 PM

I have never seen so many hurricanes let alone ones that go in circles!!

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Ormond Suzie
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30309 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM

Quote:

I'm buying what you're selling...I thought I was losing my mind...




Yeah, made me gasp when I first clicked on your link and looked at it too. Then I started clicking off the last two frames because the jump in the graphic "bugged" me - at least NHC hasn't changed the track that radically yet! Actually, what they've got on the board right now is worse for me in Daytona area. Ah well.


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Kal
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: flbeachbumz]
      #30310 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:30 PM

It's like watching John Madden diagram a play on the telestrator....

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Bloodstar
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Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: flbeachbumz]
      #30311 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:31 PM

So, if Ivan somehow hits Texas, then loops to the soutwest and the back out into the gulf... then hits Alabama again...

would it be allowed to go on forever, because it did just make a slightly skewed infinity symbol....

(you can beat me for thinking of this later...

Mark
Falcons 2-0 Woot Woot!


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schmoo
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30312 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:32 PM

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.


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flbeachbumz
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Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: Bloodstar]
      #30314 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:37 PM

This is the sunshine state. I live on a barrier Island and evacuations will be issued tomorrow. There goes the shortage on powdered milk!!

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Kdubs
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30315 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:40 PM

Quote:

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.




You are correct. That brownish area north of Jeanne is the high pressure system everyone keeps talking about.

My question is that also a high currently over FL, and if so, where will it go. Will the high from the north continue to push the high over FL out into the Gulf? If so, it would make a path to FL for Jeanne and provide a steering current for the possible yet to come Ivan v3.0.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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scottsvb
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Jeanne Forecast [Re: Ed in Va]
      #30316 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:41 PM

First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler SSTs this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by Frances plus Frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised.


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Vladimirr
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30317 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM

Quote:

trying to understand all of this from the WV loop...

the big brown thingie I assume is the ridge?
In its current position it looks to me like it would steer to GA.
Is it supposed to move further south?

Thanks for any assist in better understanding all this craziness.




Here's another water vapor loop of the same area.

You can see the dry air (blue area) pushing south as the day progresses. This is representative of the high-pressure ridge. If the ridge stopped dead in its tracks, then the hurricane would steer more north than the forecast path. However, as it is currently forecast, it should push south enough for a Florida landfall.

How far south the ridge pushes, and how well it sticks together, will determine how far north or south this thing goes. Which was the same case with Frances.


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Kimberley Clark
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Re: Weak attempt at Ivan Humor [Re: Bloodstar]
      #30318 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:42 PM

No, not Alabama again!!! No, not Ivan again!!!

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

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LI Phil
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30319 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:44 PM

Here's another WV Loop.

Short answer: the brown thingy does not show the ridge per se, as you can't really "see" a ridge; it shows dry air which is indicative of a building (or receding) ridge.

The water vapor images display the earth in a manner that correlates to quantity of water vapor in the upper portions of the atmosphere (25,000 feet and higher in general). The actual numbers displayed on the water vapor images correspond to temperature but there is no direct relationship between these values and the temperatures of clouds (as is the case for infrared images) since this channel doesn't really "see" clouds but "sees" high-level water vapor instead. The most useful tidbit to be gained from the water vapor images is the locations of storm systems and the jet stream. Another useful tidbit is aided by the color scale used on the images. In general, regions displayed in shades of red are VERY dry in the upper atmosphere and MAY correlate to crisp blue skies from a ground perspective. On the contrary, regions displayed in shades of blue or green are indicative of lots of high-level moisture and may also indicate cloudiness. This cloudiness could simply be high-level cirrus types or serious storms. That determination cannot be gained from this image by itself but could easily be determined when used in conjunction with the other channels.

Here is an in-depth explanation of a "weather briefing", but there are multiple links which should prove useful in understanding the weather. Hope this helps.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Fletch
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Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: scottsvb]
      #30320 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:49 PM

Nice job Scott. You'll excuse me if I hope you are wrong. However, I agree with everything you stated.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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schmoo
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Vladimirr]
      #30321 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM

nevermind
thanks LI Phil
I'll study up on those links

Thanks!
I also see some dark blue directly under Jeanne.
Is the what would turn her north as opposed to going west?
I don't see anything in FL that would keep her from going across the state if that upper area keeps pushing south.

Edited by schmoo (Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Frank P]
      #30322 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:50 PM

Ok, here's the convincing argument I have to come up with regarding our trip to Port St. Joe's (I'm supposed to leave tomorrow). Our local met just said that the track would more than likely be pushed more to the west at 5pm which would more than likely put it near the general area of Pt. St. Joe's Monday. If they issue a hurricane watch for that area, wouldn't visitors have to leave???? Or could it be a weak tropical storm by that point? Even if it DOES come onshore further north, won't the Panhandle have some nasty weather from this thing?
My head hurts.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30323 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM

LI Phil... you guys do a great job of teaching us newbies.

I keep reading this site and maybe one day I won't just be hacking at all this...

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LanceW
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30324 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:52 PM

Has Jim Cantore from TWC shown up yet? When he does, we will all know where she is heading..

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CarolinaGurl
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: clyde w.]
      #30325 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:53 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, check out this link:

NHC Floater

Add in the forecast plot points. Do you get a due west storm into Lake Okechobee as a Cat 3!?!?!?! Did I just get a preview of the 5:00 forecast??




The image shifts to the left but the tracks stay where they were. Its a mistake.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30326 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:54 PM

does that mean the she should maybe go south again?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Fletch
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30327 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM

Quote:

Has Jim Cantore from TWC shown up yet? When he does, we will all know where she is heading..




I think he just made reservations for Palm Beach International.

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Irwin M. Fletcher


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Colleen A.
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30328 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:55 PM

My brother's girlfriend works at TWC...just got the job a couple of weeks ago. I'll email her and ask her if JC has left the building.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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LI Phil
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: schmoo]
      #30329 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:58 PM

>>> Is the what would turn her north as opposed to going west? I don't see anything in FL that would keep her from going across the state if that upper area keeps pushing south.

Well, all things being equal, it wouldn't. The ridge is what is going to keep Jeanne moving mostly west for the next 24 hours. However, the ridge is forecasted to lift, which will allow Jeanne to begin the northward turn...timing is everything.

I'll be putting out my forecast (more of a guesscast) within the next hour...unfortunately it will be a CAT III strike in the middle of the state . More to follow.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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jlauderdal
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #30330 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:19 PM

Quote:

>>> Is the what would turn her north as opposed to going west? I don't see anything in FL that would keep her from going across the state if that upper area keeps pushing south.

key is that the ridge is forecast to lift...i think that forecast is going to be revised a bit...i think scotts landfall looks good.

Well, all things being equal, it wouldn't. The ridge is what is going to keep Jeanne moving mostly west for the next 24 hours. However, the ridge is forecasted to lift, which will allow Jeanne to begin the northward turn...timing is everything.

I'll be putting out my forecast (more of a guesscast) within the next hour...unfortunately it will be a CAT III strike in the middle of the state . More to follow.




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andy1tom
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30331 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:28 PM

alot of the resorts/hotels have gone to shuting power off before the storm hits.

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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30332 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:29 PM

Colleen what do you think of Accuweather's latest track?

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LanceW
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30333 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:35 PM

Well, I for one don't like it. This would once again put the eye of the storm over my house. Charley went over, and Frances just missed to the south, by about 20 miles or so. (The eye that is.) Three is definately a crowd here...

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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30334 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:37 PM

Eeek gads Lance you must live in one of those inland counties. I don't like any track that touches land. I had Frances go right over my place and smash a window.......not cool as we were up north.

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tartan
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: Fletch]
      #30337 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM

Irwin:

If you check you wil see that Hurricane Bob was September 19, 1991 not 1985. I know because I lost a boat in that one. Name has been retired.


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scottsvb
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30338 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:42 PM

1 thing I really dont like alot about the Accuweather from the midatlantic site is that they usually talk about that region. I mean they should but if they want to go national on it then they should included most areas. They do you say? well like in many hurricanes this year they mention,,,It will hit a certain spot,,but then they concentrate up there in the midatlantic on how much rainfall they will get,,winds, etc. Even look at JBs post and video they talk mainly whats going to happen when it gets to the midatlantic states. Look at the current graphic from the link above on Accuweather. Its showing the monday thru weds chart path of Jeanne. I mean Il take the excuses that someone wants to give and yeah I do still like Accuweather, but they concentrate more on what they get then what the landfall areas will expect. Thats not good for national review in my opinion. If they want to stay regional they should keep it more of a regional aspect. Then again maybe thats what they do already? If so they shouldnt charge the public cause that reaches everyone, not just the midatlantic.....ok sorry had to rage on that.

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ABWATCHER
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: tartan]
      #30339 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:43 PM

There was also a Hurricane Bob in June of 1985.

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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: scottsvb]
      #30340 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:45 PM

Scott you told me what I was needing to know. I don't use the pay features but just the freebie hurricane center on their site. I notice a lot of what you are saying and I need to know how this is going to affect us down here since that is where I live. Thanks for the cliff notes on Accu.

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scottsvb
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30341 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:46 PM

If you want to pay for them its fine. I do for more insight and sat locations, etc. I mean they do theyre best but I feel they just need to concentrate more on the landfall affected areas. Other then that they do a good job.

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SoonerShawn
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Ivan [Re: Redbird]
      #30342 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM

You'll have to excuse me for taking the attention away from Jeanne for a minute as I know she is of major concern to those in Florida, but we may end up having a pretty serious problem with Ivan here in Texas before it is all said and done. Not with wind but rain. I was unaware of what the official track was until now. This could be setting up as a major flood event...ala Allison. With the potential stall or even SW movement of Ivan after making landfall we could be seeing some excessive amounts of rain. The local mets are talking maybe 20+ inches in some areas. I will most certainly be praying for all of you that WILL get effected by Jeanne(Florida especially) and I just ask that you all pray for us here in Texas as well as those in LA. I doubt that here in Pearland we will see that much rain but somebody around these parts could.

Thanks and be safe!


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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: scottsvb]
      #30343 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:48 PM

For now their freebie service works although that might change and I may upgrade. Do you think there is much chance of their current track playing out?

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lawgator
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Floater Images [Re: LanceW]
      #30344 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:51 PM

I have been watching the floater IR loop of Jeanne and it sure seems to me that in the last 3 hours there is a pronounced northerly component to her movement right as she hits 70W. More NW than W. Seems too prolonged and substantial for a "jog." Also, when I watch the water vapor loop on the Atlantic basin, it sure seems that there is a break in that ridge, albeit it more to the NE of Jeanne than to the W. Wonder if she might be taking advantage of that small weakness to move a little more northerly than expected.

I have been a member forever, but usually just watch what all you gurus have to say as I am surely a novice at this. And, maybe I am engaging in some wishful thinking to steer this back out to sea and away from my first house (buy a house in June and wham -- two hurricanes come already). But, wonder if anyone else thinks there may be some light at the end of the tunnel for us in C. Fla. (and not the headlight of an oncoming train).


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: jlauderdal]
      #30345 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM

Check out the closeup WV Floater loops... forward progress seems to have stalled with the eye straddling Long 70... maybe even a jog to the north on the last few frames, unless my aging eyeballs are fooling me... now that would fly in the face of the models for sure.

AdmittedHacker


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Katie
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: LanceW]
      #30346 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:52 PM

I am with Lance on this - Charley was 15 miles South and Frances was about 10 miles East and North of us here in Polk County and quite frankly, I really hope that Accuweather is incorrect. Especially since I will be out of town and getting back on Sunday at 2. One hurricane, okay, we were overdue and I can take it, two hurricanes, okay, this is starting to get old - fast - three times - GIVE ME A BREAK!!!!!!

Seriously though, my daughter will have an awesome video diary of the hurricanes and awesome scrapbook!! Who knows, maybe she will pursue a career ....


_________________
Katie


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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Katie]
      #30347 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:55 PM

It is just bad news all the way around...............see those folks up in Volusia county floating in raw sewage and gators cruising by their homes..................you probably have the same thing.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30348 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:56 PM

I have a gators swimming around where my grass use to be, and cat fish too.. Egrets are having a feast..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Dawn
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Re: Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent [Re: Kent]
      #30349 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:57 PM

Great - printing out to take to work tomorrow - have a feeling work will be crazy this weekend if Jeanne continues west and brings it track crossing over to the Tampa Bay area.

I work at the Orange-Colored Home Improvement Center - we take plywood back if it is not wet, drilled or cut. Sure will we see the same people back that returned theirs. Generators will be taken back if gas and oil has not been put in. Maybe one generator returned since Charlie - have not had any shipments of generators since Charlie. Not a plylox in site but on order.

Finally just got hardware and paint back in stock. Gald I have the weekend off.

Really enjoy this site and group of people.

Thank You for all your thoughts, info, concern for others and humor.


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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30350 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:58 PM

How close to your house are these gators? Scary

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lawgator
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #30351 - Thu Sep 23 2004 03:59 PM

Hacker, I think you are right about Jeanne's northerly movement in last three hours. See my post right above yours.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30352 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:00 PM

Maybe 100 feet.. Have a metal fence around my pool and garage though.. 2 Acres of my three acre property is under water at this time.. Though it has receded some.. Lake level has been brought down some too.. but not enough ...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30353 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM

That is way too close for comfort. How do you get in and out of your property without endangering yourself?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Ivan [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30354 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:02 PM

I've been keeping an eye on Ivan. My girlfriend lives in Spring and her neighborhood floods in a spit of rain. 20"? I'm not seeing this myself. Maybe a few spots over the next five days around 10-12 locally. I have not seen a single piece of guidence or, for that matter, the look of the system on radar that tells me it is capable of dumping 20" in a single spot. Unless it absolutely parks for a few days and trains over one particular area, I really think 10" will be max with a general coverage of 2-7". Granted, with the conditions, that is still enough for widespread flooding; but for a local met to be saying 20" is a little sensational. Flooding will be a serious problem even with 2-4", though.

--------------------
Jim


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LI Phil
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Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: Redbird]
      #30355 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM

Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).

Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.

Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...

Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.

Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.

-----------------------------------------

Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.

Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the NHC forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the NHC's.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30356 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:03 PM

LOL thats my back yard.. I live on the lake, but the yard and the lake are one right now.. I go out my front yard and everything is dry and best part.. no gators..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Redbird
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30357 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:05 PM

Good that you have some margin of safety..............we don't need Jeanne to come in and make this whole state a giant lake.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30358 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 PM

Thanks for the forecast LI Phi. I will take that home with me and put it together with the locals and NHC. I sure am glad that I found this site. I grew up here on the coast, but it doesn't seem to get any easier as I get older.
I wish the best for all
Kathy


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gailmm
Unregistered




Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #30359 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM

Well this all just sucks and I hope you are wrong. I was feeling so good that our house in Satellite Beach near Melbourne survived with just a few missing shingles, and here we go again. Many of our neighbors are still trying to get their houses fixed.

I'm a complete novice at this-is Jeanne a much smaller storm than Frances? Can we expect hurricane-force winds for a shorter period of time, and not as far out from the eyewall?

Thanks to all for providing a great place to get some insight and a bit of humor when needed.


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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Redbird]
      #30360 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:10 PM

Just got this in my email box. See attachment

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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: gailmm]
      #30361 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:12 PM

With resident moderators here who have lots of experience, you are in a good place to get answers.............these guys burn the midnite oil for us.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: rhendryx]
      #30362 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:13 PM

what attatchment?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30363 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM

I think this chart, http://www.sfwmd.gov/newsr/district_rain_board.gif
shows the issue with Lake Toho. I am afraid the whole Upper Kissimmee basin is stressed to the max. Reedy Creek near my home in Poinciana is still way over flood stage. I have to admit that if Jeanne gives us a heavy does of rain, I am not entirely sure the bridge over Reedy Creek at Pleasent Hill Road will remain passable. That would effectively cut off my neighborhood from the rest of the county. I am hoping that she stays east of my location. However, I am concerned about a very close center pass or a pass to the west right now.

--------------------
Jim


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FireAng
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30364 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:14 PM

I was going to ask the same thing

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StormKrone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.30N 81.60W
Re: Crow Munching Forecast...for Jeanne [Re: gailmm]
      #30365 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:22 PM

I guess I should change my nick to "GypsyKrone" to reflect my many travels... I lived in Satellite Beach through my high school years, and began my hurricane experience there...

Also spent 5 years in Houston. Rain there can cause severe flooding... especially on one part of I-10 downtown... can disable 18-wheelers in a flash. Fortunately, the flood waters seem to recede fairly quickly. The next day all you can see is a wetspot on the underpass wall. That is, unless things have changed a lot in the infrastructure since 1993.

Ya know, I don't post but minimally.. but it is for sure I am here being my usual wallflower self. My roommate thinks I have a 'feller' on here... I tell her, ya'll are ALL my 'fellers'..thanks for hosting a grand neighborhood.

SK


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: scottsvb]
      #30366 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:23 PM

Scott, you have been so accurate lately, that I hope your time to miss one is this one. Guess what is right in the middle of your Pompano Beach to Jupiter track? That would be me here in Boynton Beach. I am dead center between those 2 cities. Here's hoping your wrong. If your wrong I'll buy you a cold beverage, if your right you'll have to buy me one because I won't have anything cold without power.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 44
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Vortex Data Recon [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30367 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:30 PM

Does anyone know if there is a recon scheduled any time soon for Jeanne?

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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rhendryx
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Steering Currents [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30368 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM

For some reason the attachment did not go through. I'll try again later.

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30369 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:34 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM Ivan CENTER HEADED FOR LA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE SABINE THIS EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER
THE HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL FORECAST IN ALREADY IN PLACE. AS IvanS
REMAINS GET INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE UPPER JET EXTENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP VENTILATE
THE SYSTEM AND A SPEED MAX CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ETA
SOLUTION) WILL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A COUPLED JET SCENARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING...THIS WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE YUCATAN WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CORE RAIN EVENT. UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.



I guess the local mets are saying that if Ivan goes slowly to the SW and back maybe back into the gulf than he will bring so much moisture from out of the gulf that it could make a 10-15 inch or maybe even 20 inch rain total.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30371 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:37 PM

New track is in Shifted further west...

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Vladimirr
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30372 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM

Quote:

Does anyone know if there is a recon scheduled any time soon for Jeanne?




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

NOAA9 1611A already departed, and should get there around 8pm EDT.


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Rabbit
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Re: Steering Currents [Re: rhendryx]
      #30373 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:38 PM

someone said that the northerly COMPONENT of Jeanne would change, and it did--it is no longer a component, and appears the last few hours to be moving due north Jeanne

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davet
Unregistered




Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30374 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM

2. HURRICANE JEANNE
FLIGHT ONE -NO CHANGE FLIGHT TWO - ADDED
A. 24/0600Z A. 24/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1511A JEANNE B. NOAA9 1611A JEANNE
C. 24/0130Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 26.3N 71.8W D. N/A
E. 24/0430Z TO 24/0700Z E. N/A
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SUSPECT AREA REMAINS A THREAT.
B. PROBABLE G-IV SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT FOR JEANNE
DEPARTING 24/1730Z.
C. FIX OF JEANNE AT 24/1800Z AND PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 25/0600Z.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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SSD still hasLisa and 93L [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30375 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:39 PM

Just noting that the Dvorak measurements are still tracking
both Lisa and 93L. So, they're recognizing 2 seperate systems there... still?

Mark


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Forecast [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30376 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:40 PM

Most people here in S. FL are pretty complacent about Jeanne. I think there sick of Hurricanes plus most likely it will not effect S.Fl like further north. First Jeanne was suppose to head to FL., then out to sea, then to the Carolinas, now back to FL.. Ivan was suppose to hit South FL. but of course it didn't and the thinking probably is the same for Jeanne.Plus if you look at the latest loops she looks like she wants to go north and bother nobody.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Vortex Data Recon [Re: Kdubs]
      #30377 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM

5pm track is out, still waiting on the DIscussion. Landfall looks to be between Jupiter and PSL as a Cat 3. 72-hour 65nm strike probabilities are 15-20% all up the east coast. Speed now officially WNW at 8.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Rabbit]
      #30378 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:41 PM

The eye also appears to be clearing the cloudcover a little. I know its just two frames worth, but could be a trend.

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South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
New fly in the ointment??? [Re: Kdubs]
      #30379 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:46 PM

Now, the NHC says moving WNW but it is expected to go back to due west. Seems like the opposite of what they were saying earlier.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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lois
Unregistered




where is discussion [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30380 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:53 PM

???

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: where is discussion [Re: lois]
      #30381 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:55 PM

Not sure, it was late (later than usual, very close to 11) this morning. Keep in mind that they've got four named storms to issue advisories on, two of which are a direct threat to land...

I'd like to know what happened to the 12Z GFDL run on Jeanne, I can't find it in the usual place...

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: where is discussion [Re: lois]
      #30384 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:57 PM

I got that info. from the public advisory.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: where is discussion [Re: leetdan]
      #30385 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:58 PM

Lisa down to a depression

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
5 Jeanne [Re: Rabbit]
      #30386 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html

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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: where is discussion [Re: Rabbit]
      #30387 - Thu Sep 23 2004 04:59 PM

Let's hope she does not change like Jeanne did........until it is completely dead, I still watch out.

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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: where is discussion [Re: leetdan]
      #30388 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM

Quote:

I'd like to know what happened to the 12Z GFDL run on Jeanne, I can't find it in the usual place...




NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE JEANNE 11L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 23

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.6 69.5 270./ 1.9
6 25.9 70.0 299./ 5.4
12 25.9 70.6 271./ 5.0
18 26.0 71.3 275./ 6.8
24 26.0 72.2 269./ 7.7
30 26.1 73.1 278./ 8.3
36 26.1 74.2 271./ 9.8
42 26.0 75.4 267./10.9
48 26.1 76.5 275./10.5
54 26.3 77.6 281./ 9.5
60 26.7 78.6 289./ 9.6
66 27.0 79.6 287./ 9.8
72 27.6 80.3 310./ 8.6
78 28.2 81.0 313./ 8.6
84 29.0 81.4 334./ 8.5
90 29.9 81.6 345./ 8.6
96 30.9 81.5 6./10.3
102 32.0 81.0 25./12.2
108 33.3 80.1 33./14.6
114 34.3 79.2 44./13.0
120 35.8 77.7 46./18.8
126 37.3 76.1 45./19.7


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: where is discussion [Re: lois]
      #30389 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:03 PM

Discussion's out, and they're pretty emphatic on not focusing on a point as 1) it's still over two days out and 2) it'll potentially be curving, leaving a possibly wider swath under the strongest winds. They also make a point to emphasize the strengthening potential, pretty much anything they can say to get Floridians to take this seriously.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: where is discussion [Re: leetdan]
      #30391 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:07 PM

Another watch and wait situation. Surely, hurricane season will end this year, right? All the other rules have been broken, though...

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When it rains, it pours...


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Nothing but wonderful news [Re: Redbird]
      #30392 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM

The NHC now has the storm at 26.7and 79.8 in 60 hours. That is like being at my next door neighbors house. On top of that, they now say the shear may not kick in until right near landfall, so it may be a cat 3 storm at landfall. YIKES!!!! I told my wife we needed to keep those shutters up. She complained about the lack of sunlight.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: where is discussion [Re: Heather]
      #30393 - Thu Sep 23 2004 05:10 PM

I am not getting from the NHC that this is a watch and learn for East Coast of Florida .. More of a watchout and listen..

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Ivan [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30411 - Thu Sep 23 2004 06:10 PM

I know we're mainly focusing on Jeanne today, but I just had to comment on how nice Ivan looks... the high cloud tops sheared off and the circulation center has been clearly visible most of the afternoon. The center has started to look a little ragged over the last few frames, but still worthwhile...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML


Here's the Lake Charles radar showing the center moving into Vermillion Parish...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml

...didn't see the new thread....

--------------------
Allison


Edited by Allison (Thu Sep 23 2004 06:13 PM)


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leo
Unregistered




Re: Steering Currents [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30560 - Thu Sep 23 2004 09:18 PM

Actually, I did registar and received the email to confirm, but could not get the link to confirm to open. This was back during Ivan's first run. I will try again to registar. Thanks.

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