SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
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Quote:
My gut feeling (and from watching some of the sat and models) is that she's going to strengthen up, make a run to near the lake, stall and then make her turn, scraping lots of land along the way. It does not feel pretty.
I think wherever it goes, it will make a mess. I do find it interesting the latest models at
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_11.gif
show a WNW turn at 75W. Taking it much further north than the Treasure Coast at landfall. At this point, would take that scenario or the aforementioned WPB entry to the gulf, over a direct hit to Ft. Pierce. With all due respect and concern for my fellow coastliners. Good luck to all. I won't be able to communicate from the shelter (which opens at 8am and plan to be there at 7:30am), so I hope all goes well for you if I don't get to talk to after tonight. Have to pack the computer in storage once again, so probably won't be on much longer.
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Bubba
Unregistered
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Quote:
Yes sunspot activity has occured, could someone give me a chart on when it was the greatest or something. Because say it was in July then it would take about 3 months to radiate back out of the Earth and therefore effect our climate and amount of hurricanes late season. Did a sunspot occur in late May? I know they run in 11 year cycles but sun spots aren't the only thing that effect growth of hurricanes Mr. Spock.
Actually we are heading towards a sunspot low. As was said, current solar activity is periodic - 11 year cycles. The last peak was in 2000, sunspot minimum is expected to occur in 2007-2008. There are lots of sites out there that will give you plenty of information on solar activity and its effects - the greatest inpact sunspot activity has here on earth is the ionization of the atmosphere, that directly relates to the atmosphere's ability to reflect radio waves (predominantly in the HF spectrum...) Here is a good site for realtime solar data:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation/propagation.html
During peaks of solar activity there can be dozens of spots on the solar surface. Right now there are very few...
Good luck to all this weekend
(Riding it out in East Orlando....)
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Works great! Those uniforms look great.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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I have a question for you. If the scenario plays out will we get similar effects of Francis? Im just south of Tampa in manatee county. Thanks
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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What, is it picture posting time on the forum?
Doesn't skeet look all cute in that pretty uniform 
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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I too will post updates until the power goes as I did during . I just finished putting up the hurricane shutters (only took a few down from the last storm). We are staying - we are on Merritt Island but our elevation is 18 feet rated at at Cat 5 for surge. We are mid way between 520 and Pineda causeways. We have shutters rated for Cat 5. I would leave if I thought it would be Cat 4, so I will watch tomorrow. Also, for Brevard locals leaving and you want an update...there is a good web site from Florida Today where locals post by city and even sub-division...here is the link http://community.flatoday.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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that is all true, my question is, what kind of lag time is there between maxes and mins of activity, with respect to our weather patterns? I don't know the answer to that. I do remember this last cycle was supposed to be abnormally strong.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
...show a WNW turn at 75W. Taking it much further north than the Treasure Coast at landfall. At this point, would take that scenario or the aforementioned WPB entry to the gulf, over a direct hit to Ft. Pierce. With all due respect and concern for my fellow coastliners.
As a resident on the Space Coast, I have to assure you that we don't want it either.
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dwlobo
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Palmetto, FL
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It's the same down here in Palmetto. It could be because there is no perceived certainty about the path and the proximity to this (Tampa Bay) area. Maybe they're too focused on the track and not the whole forecast path.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Looks like the 18Z shifted west. The 18Z Sun position [2:00 PM] appears to be smack dab over Orlando in that run. Would not be surprised to see another leftward nudge when the new advisory comes out in the next 30-45 min.
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Jim
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I would be surprised if they didn't shift the track west a bit. Of course, they won't have 0z guidance at that point. That is also 2 runs in a row the has shifted west. This seems similar to the biases it had with .
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clueless
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
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That would answer my question fairly specifically - I know that I have done all that I can to make my family safe - we have a well stocked interior bathroom that can sleep 2.5 people (who sleeps during a storm anyway) and all of the supplies that I need for the storm and the aftermath. Just dont want to go crazy and over prepare and then sit around wishing that I hadn't made so much work for myself. I guess I would rather have that than lose any possibility of protecting equipment if possible
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Bubba
Unregistered
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Actially this last cycle was just average. The most active solar cycle was cycle 11, that peaked during 1957-58.
Generally, the effects of solar disturbances are felt on earth at roughly 93 hours after they occur on the surface of the sun. Here is a good NASA site on the solar wind...
http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sun_wind.htm
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Stephanie-TWC, in Palm Beach, just said there is a mandatory evacuation, starting at 7AM-Saturday for Palm Beach County.
This is for Low lying areas and mobile homes. I'll try to find a link.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REQUESTED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN ZONE A AND B THIS EVENING. SHELTERS ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN SATURDAY MORNING.
BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF ZONE A AND MOBILE HOMES THIS EVENING.
THREE SHELTERS ARE DUE TO OPEN THIS EVENING. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THESE AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND OTHER SHELTERS WILL OPEN.
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ANTICIPATE ORDERING AN EVACUATION FOR ZONE A AT 7 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING AT WHICH TIME SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE JEANNE AND AT THIS TIME NO PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE BEING RECOMMENDED. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD REVIEW AND UPDATE THEIR HURRICANE FAMILY PLANS
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 25 2004 02:23 AM)
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Crud. Every model I run has it basically going over me.
Somebody owes me big for this..
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Terri
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
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Quote:
I have witnessed in person today what several have posted about regarding storm apathy here in Central Florida. The tension reached an unbearable peak during the days leading up to ' landfall. The shock of being far worse than we imagined could happen this far inland jolted nearly everyone into some sort of storm preparation for .
This time around, the attitude is more a resigned acceptance. I have actually noticed yesterday and earlier today, that several homes in my neighborhood were taking their plywood DOWN!
I work in a local department store and, in the days immediately prior to and , business was non-existent. People were too pre-occupied to shop. Sure, the grocery and home improvement stores were packed, but clothing stores did no business. Today, we were very busy with people casually browsing....a totally different attitude from before.
Even tonight at the grocery store saw very little lines.....huge stocks of water, canned goods & batteries....no rush to grab these typical hurricane supplies. I certainly hope that Jeanne turns out to be a fizzle, because I fear the lack of preparation could come back and haunt many people.
I can relate to the apathy, Lou. Even though we folks on the GA coast won't come close (God willing) to experiencing the initial landfall of Jeanne and what she will bring, we're in for some nasty weather. I'm pretty much prepared all year round for whatever comes my way because I live on a small island that is east of a small town. Savannah is a little north of me. I went shopping last night to pick up a few more things, and the grocery store was empty. I went to Lowes today (in Savannah) for a little extra plywood (just in case) and that store was empty, too. I just couldn't believe it!!! Heck, parts of Savannah were without power for 2 weeks when Hurricane David dropped by for a little visit in 1979. As you know, it was a category 1, and if I remember correctly, it passed over Tybee Island and missed the city of Savannah. I talked to some neighbors today that weren't even aware that Jeanne was headed our way. Like I said, I can relate to the apathy. Folks around here could be in for a big surprise.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I will say, there really should not be much of a rush to stock up. There have been so many storms that everyone should have a ready to go hurricane kit.
Addition: I had no preps that I needed to do for Jeanne because they were already done for and .
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 25 2004 02:28 AM)
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notloggedin
Unregistered
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clueless,
whole lot better to over prepare than under prepare. you are inland so tornado's could be a problem too. they are what wiped our butts when came in. good to hear you have a game plan
andy1tom
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
526 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHILE THE DURATION OF THE WORST WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORTER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE ...THE SEVERITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA OF LANDFALL MAY ACTUALLY BE WORSE...AS JEANNE MAY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN AN EXHAUSTING HURRICANE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS HAVING ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE PROPERTY DAMAGE...
RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO AVOID COMPLACENCY! NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY! PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE...AS HURRICANE JEANNE POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO OUR COMMUNITIES.
REMAIN CALM...STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER THREATS...AND START IMPLEMENTING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN OF ACTION.
CONSIDER YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...TO DEADLY STORM SURGE...TO FLOODING RAIN. TAKE ALL REASONABLE AND NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
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