Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I know everyone is talking about Jeanne for the time being but could come back to a cane in my opinion. If that surface trough matains it's self and it tracks into that very warm water we could be seeing a strong storm. I'm tracking the cloud mass for sure because all we need is another arguement on weather it should be called or not. Back to Jeanne! P.S could someone post a link to the shear models, I seem to have lost it?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I don't think I was clear in that last post...Max Mayfield is feeling a little concerned about this:
"ONLY THE ...GFDN...AND ETA
MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF
TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE
NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER
MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD
AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT
THE -GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE
BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK."
THey are getting more data that suggests these models are on to something. The 11pm advisory will probably have this information in the modeling and I am anxious to see the 00Z model runs.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Don't forget to vote in the poll:
http://jacksonville.com/
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Justin in Miami,
They always send weather baloons up at weather stations, where do you think they get the isobars, isotherms and all that other good stuff? The and UKMET are yes trending to the stronger side with the ridge but then you have the /AVN with the weaker side to it. My forecast is a hybird of the UKMET and the because the likes to break down ridges out of no where and cause a whole bunch of problems. The UKMET is has a general rightward bias and sometimes makes ridges stronger then they normally are but it is an overall good model with thermodynamics and everything.
The big differance is that this time, they are taking measurements from special flights, not the 'normal' hurricane hunter flights, but flights dispatched well north of the hurricane in the area where the hight currently affecting the storm and south west into the 'nose' of the high. They are trying to measure the strength and shape of the high way out over the water in addition to the usual baloon soundings from lan. This is being reported on several TV stations so I give his report credibility.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I voted already, I want you guys to win!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:07 AM)
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robynsmom
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Ridge Manor Florida
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go to www.wunderground.com
Click on Tropical/Hurricane and they have the graphic models there for you to see.
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Robynsmom
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I voted already, I want you guys to win!
You have my proxy to vote for me as well.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:08 AM)
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I tried to vote again, but it locked me out with an already voted error. They're on to me!!
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When it rains, it pours...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I voted already, I want you guys to win!
Keith...thanks!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:08 AM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That will most likely improve the results of the models, more layers of the atmosphere to judge how the high will change over time. But sometimes quanity is not always rewarded with better forecasts, take the Richardson experiment for example.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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No Way! IMO, as long as that upper low is in the gulf there won't be anything developing. Not only that I don't think his circulation will ever get back into the gulf. Accuweather has even backed off on him back in the gulf, I think?
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RONJON
Unregistered
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GFS 18Z trended west (now thru the center of the state ) - & the , Canadian, ETA, and to some extent UKMET have latched on to more west movement into FL. my thoughts are WPB to Tampa area and then up the Gulf Coast - not a good scenario for where I live in hernando bch
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I tried to vote again, but it locked me out with an already voted error. They're on to me!!
fhooy!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
That will most likely improve the results of the models, more layers of the atmosphere to judge how the high will change over time. But sometimes quanity is not always rewarded with better forecasts, take the Richardson experiment for example.
Not familiar with that...care to share?
EDIT: now in third place, with 9%, trailing only (50%) and wunderground (12%)...of course it's a statistical tie with Intellicast & but WE'RE BEATING ACCUWX (6%), HURRICANE CITY (0%) AND ATWC (0%)!!!
C'mon troops...lets overtake Intellicast...got a feeling will take Florida's electoral votes...lets play Nader!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:07 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm not really sure but I did try to vote more then once. My computer is hidden from everything, sometimes I can't get onto this website. My brother knows more then me about this; it's his computer but then again he's not home!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:09 AM)
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I love Firefox! Opera is my favorite tho.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:10 AM)
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
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lol thats right over my house south of DeLand in Volusia county....thanks ...im not showing my mom that graphic! She would freak
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nandav
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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We're now under a Tropical Storm Watch:
HURRICANE JEANNE SLOWLY APPROACHING FLORIDA'S EAST COAST... ... TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEYS INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA... ... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR SUMTER... POLK... HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES...
... AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS... CHARLOTTE... DESOTO... HERNANDO... HILLSBOROUGH... LEE... LEVY... MANATEE... PASCO... PINELLAS... SARASOTA... HARDEE... HIGHLANDS... POLK... SUMTER...
... WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEYS. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER... POLK... HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES.
And it's another normal weekend in Florida...
Edited by nandav (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Post deleted by LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
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i could only vote once also 
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