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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Latest WV [Re: LI Phil]
      #31879 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:57 PM

Hi all--I'll be posting from east Orlando again today with conditions--asuming we keep power and the site stays up (seems its much more stable with the recent changes).

We never lost power for Charley or Frances, so I should be able to post what occurs out here.

A couple of thoughts for the board:
1) The local news stations are giving the impression that there is a great deal of complacency among coastal residents about Jeane. They keep showing the roads--which are empty--and saying few people are evacuating. Can any of our coastal posters update if that is the case or not?

2) I wanted to give kudos to Scottsvb. He nailed his call on Ivan, which was pretty impressive. But, if you recall, he posted over a week ago on his impressions on Jeanne (this was while Jeane was a LLC chasing her own convection north of the DR). At that time, he called for a loop, followed by a turn toward Florida while strengthening to a cat 3-4. Talk about nailing it. LI Phil, I don't recall what thread it was in, but it definitely deservs the kudos.

Stay safe everyone. This one is going to be bad, very bad. Especially if residents are as complacent as the news is stating.


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CatInOrlando
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Orlando, FL 28:24N 81:26W
Update from Orlando [Re: LI Phil]
      #31880 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:58 PM

I am still at work today, was supposed to work until 7:30pm, not sure if I am going to or leave early to get back to the house before things start picking up too much. Just got back from lunch break, watching the news and the weather channel and news13 (local central fl). Official evacuation orders for mobile homes in Orange county have been posted. I was a little surprised at how emphatic they are being about evacuation orders (I approve, by the way), and noticing that people beach side arent going, not nearly in the numbers as before. Not sure if it is "hurricane fatigue" or people are just getting bold.

Was also supposed to work tomorrow, but I dont think that is happening. I am going to "hunker down" at the house, with all our mobile home friend "refugees" and try to stay out of trouble.

I finally registered today, so I can login from work or home, no more "anonymous user".


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Ready to go.. [Re: Liz L.]
      #31881 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:00 PM

Well, I must say that putting all the shutters up this time was much faster than the last time I think we are seeing her wobble a little in both directions. Folks down here (Broward County) are definitely not expecting much from this storm...and I can't blame them. Nevertheless, I am prepared.

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Amory Bl
Unregistered




Re: model diagnostics [Re: MrSpock]
      #31882 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:00 PM

It seems to me that the latest models are suggesting that Jeanne will traverse the peninsula and get to the GOM. Is this correct?

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Gonna shut down and 'Hunker' down PDQ [Re: Daytonaman]
      #31883 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:02 PM

How much time do ya'll expect this storm to spend in the GOM ?

--------------------
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Update from Orlando [Re: CatInOrlando]
      #31884 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:03 PM

1:57 pm here in st cloud florida, gray skies very very windy, dead branches flying off trees already. some people are boarded up others are not. I dont understand why people are not taking this seriously. they are being very complacement about it all. Me i have two boys and my husband i worry about and want to make sure we are safe and are home is safe enough to ride with witch out. I wish they would understand this is getting to be a bad outlook for orkando and the surrounding areas. please please if your not prepared get there we only have a short time left and if your not prepared i see alot of hardship happening to my fellow central floridians. I know were all tired but come on think be prepared please.

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carol_melbourne
Unregistered




Re: Latest WV [Re: clyde w.]
      #31885 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:03 PM

I can't speak for beachside residents, the ones under mandatory evac, but almost none of my neighbors that left for Frances have left this time. So the lack of congested roads may be because people who live somewhat inland aren't going anywhere this time. I certainly hope the people in evac areas aren't planning to ride this one out.

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Looks like a wobble to the west right now [Re: Amory Bl]
      #31886 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:04 PM

Anybody agree?

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Gonna shut down and 'Hunker' down PDQ [Re: HCW]
      #31887 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:05 PM

I really don't think it ever will make it into the GOM..... but it is possible.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: model diagnostics [Re: Amory Bl]
      #31888 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:05 PM

only the ETA takes it into the GOM, but it has been a SW outlier in most instances, and probably is again. It looks to me like it will be east of Tampa, heading towards Ga.
If the anticipated turn is put off for only a few hours, that will change the track.


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jimm56
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Strengthening Now a Category 3 Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #31889 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 PM

Accuweather just said that the winds could be up to 135 mph at landfall. This would be very bad news for Florida

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Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: model diagnostics [Re: MrSpock]
      #31890 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:08 PM

Quote:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

This is an excellent discusion on the models, more in depth than some Musher is a good writer.
He discusses the situation with Jeanne in pretty good detail.



I agree, MrSpock. Musher is a good writer. He did not commit the unpardonable sin in writing, the sin against clarity. I was able to understand (and I'm a novice) exactly what he was trying to say.


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otter
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Re: Thomas email update just in [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #31891 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:08 PM

I'm in Darien on the Ga. coast also surrounded by lots of live oaks. Not many here have boarded up. Do any on ya'll think we should? They said Hugo was gonna get us, then Floyd...been lucky so far.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Radar [Re: Amory Bl]
      #31892 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:10 PM

Yeah, KAMX showed about 10 frames just north of west, then the last four frames back to the previous lattitude. We evacuated the family marina (which is still out of business from Frances), and we finally convinced my father to evacuate with the rest of us ten miles west (we are in a rather low-lying CAT3 evac zone).

Stay safe, everybody.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Update from Orlando [Re: CatInOrlando]
      #31893 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:12 PM

One of the problems is where are the coastal people supposed to go? Certainly not to Orlando where it's possible to get really nasty conditions.
THe best they can do is if they are in a solid home away from the beach, stay put and hunker down.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: model diagnostics [Re: Terri]
      #31894 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:12 PM

You should have read the one from last night. It said almost nothing. I don't remember who wrote it, but I think they are (or should be) conscious of the fact that these discussions, while normally not read, are probably seeing a much larger audience than normal.
FYI, that discussion comes out twice per day, around 6z and 18Z

Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 25 2004 02:15 PM)


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Pam was in Vero
Unregistered




Re: Latest WV [Re: clyde w.]
      #31895 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:15 PM

I know some of the people were staying closer this time but getting off of the island. There are always a few who will stay. We had to scare the bejesus out of my father-in-law to get him into a shelter. The one thing no one is saying... a lot of people don't have the money to leave again. Some have had no income for up to 2-3 weeks.

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Latest WV [Re: clyde w.]
      #31896 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:15 PM

Well, I can tell you that here in CB, almost nobody is leaving - people here don't have any money anymore. I can't tell you one single neighbor around that has left. The power flickered off about a half hour and winds shift from nearly t.s. gusts to nearly calm. People generally are in their houses or making last minute preparations.
I'll continue to inform until I can't anymore.


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Interstate4Jamming
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Loc: Lakeland, Florida
Re: Radar [Re: Amory Bl]
      #31897 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:16 PM

The meteorologists on Tampa's WFLA did a freeze frame over three hours to look closer at that supposed northerly bump. It actually looked more like a "stair-step" where it moved ever so slightly north of due west, then over the past hour moved due west once again. Just more like an ever so slight wobble, IMHO

--------------------
Visit my blog, Interstate4Jamming, a personal commentary on Polk County/Tampa Bay/Central Florida politics, life, and other issues of interest. Polk County is truly The Center Of It All, and there's never really a dull moment!


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Guest
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: Amory Bl]
      #31898 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:17 PM

The Melbourne radar loops are not showing any tendencies other than a direct westerly direction. Since these get updated every 10 minutes or so, they tend seem to be a better tracking method then the satellite images now that Jeanne is close enough for radar coverage.

Just my opinion & everybody's got one - Bob


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