MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Saw Ed Rappaport on television they are considering moving the track a bit left for the 11AM now. Which increases the threat to Palm Beach County.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Good question. I brought this up to my wife when hit and there was still debris from in the greater Orlando area. I'm worried because in Gainesville, we've got debris EVERYWHERE. I'd assume that it doesn't take much to lift debris off the ground. BUT, I noticed that during , the debris thrown off the trees early in the storm was never picked back up even after several hours. Maybe it was because that debris was wet, or tropical storm force winds weren't enough. Anyone else have anything to offer on this?
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Brad Shumbera
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I'm with ya...Now we need info. It's time to let the forum be the magic that it is, an incredible source for info and analysis. Let's keep off-topic chat to a minimum and I, being one of the biggest offenders, will keep my fingers shut.
I'm not a mod so you don't have to listen to me, but it just seems like a good idea...
You guys are amazing and please stay safe! You can't overprepare..I'll be praying for you all
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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ChicagoMatt
Unregistered
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Is it possible to get access to the 's FTP server? I thought it was anonymous but when I try to go ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data1/gfdl or ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data1/nogaps I get "Access Denied".
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Uuuugghh!! I have never seen such a case of denial with my husband and especially my father. We lived in Boynton Beach during Andrew. He prepared for that one, but then the effects were minor. Has lived in Sebring for the past 10 years, ignoring all storms til . In fact 30 minutes before we started feeling the effects of my family was walking out the door to go to dinner. No concept whatsoever. Of course they were caught a little bit off guard when they were without electricity for days. For , my household was prepared-parents were going on vacation come hell or highwater-which they did. They did have the sense to bring back a generator as they are hard to find here. My father prepared for , and was then annoyed when it didn't visit us. I haven't heard the end of it yet. So now we face Jeanne, he is still saying "It ain't coming here" and "There is so much real estate b/t Sebring and the coast". I showed him 's graphic-no good. This is so frustrating as he is a teacher and does have some common sense, usually prepared for things to the max-but blowing this off. I've also noticed that all of neighbors are currently having yard sales today!! The denial is frightening. Most frightening is what is going to happen tonight that is going to shock this "inland" town into reality.
Thanks for letting me vent...I'll go back to lurking now.
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When it rains, it pours...
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sthorne
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
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Well, looks likeTWC's Stephanie Abrams is at Club Med, about, oh...3 miles from my home... 
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat_pages/nexsat_home.html
Really cool satellite website
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
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Sorry to hear that...not good news for you.... I am starting to get alittle worried myself over here on the west coast...I can not see the high breaking down fast enough for a northward turn before it gets to the GOM and I think we are in for another "Andrew" type move with the playing catch up with their forcast. I think alot of people are going to be in real trouble this time....
Edited by firestar_1 (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:37 PM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Computer crashed last night...and all I could think was, "Now I can't check the 's track!"
Are people still thinking Jeanne might move west across the state? Yesterday my gut feeling was that she would, but today I am feeling less certain of that.
Trying to get caught up on reading...there's a lot of posts to go through...you guys are the best!
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DC in Polk
Unregistered
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Jeanne's not going into the GOM (at least not until after she turns) because due west in the GOM is an ULL that has been moving towards FL from the mexico coast over the past couple days. The ULL (too dry for sat pics, but easily seen in WV) is going to block Jeanne's Western path, and give it "traction" to force the NW turn, and as the storm approaches GA, the westerlies will run it NE. The only question is how close does Jeanne have to get before the "traction" begins.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Been watching the loops for a little while now. It appeared that Jeanne had gained just a bit of latitude, but then at the last frame she appears to move just a hair south of due west. Like someone else mentioned some of the models(GFS/GFDL) did not have Jeanne moving at 14+mph at this point in time(if at ever). Even the UKMET, etc were calling for about 12mph. Any more increase in forward motion would probably shift the track that much further west. Either way this storm is close and only getting closer. Any faster movement to the west and it pushes up that timeline that much more.
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Check the Surf
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Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
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I have been a long time observer of this site, but only posted a few times. Like others I have questions about some of the terminology and acronyms that are used. The one that has me STUMPED are T-numbers. What are T-numbers and what do they represent.
Thanks for the info.
I posted this on an earlier thread, apparently at about the same time this thread was opened. Sorry if the double post is a problem.
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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That's what I thought yesterday. Today it looks like that ULL's eastward movement has been stopped in the central Gulf. It even looks to me like it is retreating.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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I think by now those that want to be prepared are.
THose that live dangerously aren't and never will be.
It's human nature.
Inland areas, just need to batten down and ride it out.
Unless you're in a mobile home or a flood prone area.
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BVaught
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Central Florida
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Quote:
Barry..... saw your post and as you said, you live near Wekiva Spring... my in-laws aslo live there and we have asked them to come stay with us in a single story new home just east of Clermont. They have a custom two story and you guys over there lose power everytime! Do you think it will be worse by you rather than here?? Thanks
Scott
It all depends on Jeanne 's final path.
Look at s map http://www.skeetobite.com/
and stay away from the NE side of the eyewall and quadrant, if possible,however time is quickly dissappearing on making re-locations.
The power grid here is very fragile, and goes out even without a storm.
Please send any other questions to vaughtenterprise@aol.com to keep forum clear for emergency information.
Thank you
Barry
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I have two wind turbines (relatively new) on my south facing roof and are rated for ~120 mph winds (or so the box said)... I have multiple roof lines and the other parts of my roof has ridge vents.... I did not want any ridge vents running entire crown of my roof that faces south so I put up a couple of turbines... hurricane force winds drive water into ridge vents
if winds are expected to be greater than 120, should you.....
- cover and duct tape them with mutiple thick contractor garbage bags
- remove them ( then you have to deal with holes in roof)
- or just let them spin and hope for the best....
For I just let them spin but we didn't get any hurricane force winds in MS....
is there a special type of coverage available on the market to cover them?
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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I'll take a short stab at T-numbers.
Don't really know why they are called that, but they are satellite estimates on strength. The higher the t-numbers, the worse the storm.
I think they rely heavily on them when the storm is over the central Atlantic and out of recon range.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
Also, just to see if we are talking about the same ULL, it's just south of LA now, right?
Edited by alan (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:54 PM)
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centralfleagle
Unregistered
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I live in north Lakeland (Polk County), and live about a block from a Home Depot store. Just passed by about a half hour ago, and visited a 7-11 on US 98 near I-4. Based on that visit I can say that people here are watching but we are not seeing the amount of concern/prepardness I had seen in earlier hurricanes. Either people had purchased their plywood or simply are not going through it again. The 7-11 cashier did tell me, though, that they are quickly running out of gas.
BTW: For anyone considering Polk County for an evacuation spot, they may want to consider visiting the Polk County Visitors and Convention Bureau Web site, www.sunsational.org, for information on room availabilities. On the site click on the "Hurricane Update" spot on the page.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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T-numbers are a measurement on the Scale. Like Alan said they are intensity estimates based on satellite imagery. Here's a link to some info and the scale:
Dvorak Scale
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Check the Surf
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I the ULL actually has converging winds so the hurricane would near it but wouldn't block it though Jeanne coil some dry air into it's circulation. The ridge digging down from the mid-west followed by a cold front is going to do the blocking, how much is uncertain. The ridge will then spilt at it's weakness and leave a channel for Jeanne to ride out to become extra-tropical; again the strength of the ridge is uncertain.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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