Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
A little OT; but I have a bad feeling there are going to be about 70K folks in Gainesville who are in for a surprise in about four hours when the get back in their vehicles and hear the latest update. Especially the ones who live on the Florida west coast.
--------------------
Jim
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Perhaps I should have phrased the note differently...it could be good news, depending on what phase she's in...as a few of you have pointed out, it could also be VERY BAD news.
This is going to be much worse than , no matter what phase it's in...we can only hope she's weakening at landfall.
Just saw what Jeanne did to Abaco (they got the eye)...
wishing and hoping and praying for a miracle
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Yeah, JB thinks this has a shot to be the worst of the 4 canes that hit FL this year. He thinks hurricane conditions up through coastal GA and probably through the Carolinas. This one looks bad folks. You guys have taken a decade's worth of hits in 2 months. Unbelievable.
Good luck
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
|
|
The 12Z Models are now out..
--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
|
Interstate4Jamming
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 6
Loc: Lakeland, Florida
|
|
Considering your previous post and with your experience, what would be your guess as to the affect this hurricane would have on Polk County when it passes, more spefically around Lakeland? It seems our Emergency Management people are gonna get bit in the backside on this one as they are seeming caught off guard not wanting to seem alarmist or unsure of the track.
--------------------
Visit my blog, Interstate4Jamming, a personal commentary on Polk County/Tampa Bay/Central Florida politics, life, and other issues of interest. Polk County is truly The Center Of It All, and there's never really a dull moment!
|
Kent
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
|
|
Sorry if I missed it but where does JB say landfall is going to be?
|
tpratch
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
He's no Stacy Stewart, but Mr. Avila still gets the point across...
"look mummy, there’s an aeroplane up in the sky"
Did you see the frightened ones?
Did you hear the falling bombs?
Did you ever wonder why we had to run for shelter when the
Promise of a brave new world unfurled beneath a clear ??
Thought my hour or so afk trip cost me this one... 
... blue sky.
Going to see about lunch.
|
Kent
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
|
|
...and where are those darn Hurricane boys with the car on EBAY? They love the eye....
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
Sorry if I missed it but where does JB say landfall is going to be?
"Its going lower and disaster may be looming I think for Florida, with a 940 or lower storm possible at landfall tonight near Melbourne around 3 am, Jeane being the biggest and strongest of the 4. I pray I am wrong, given the implications."
I should add that landfall would occur earlier if there is a more southerly landfall...JB's calling for it to go over EDs house! Maybe ed can send a tornado up to St. College, PA? Not funny I know.
Folks getting the first feeder bands need to be aware of the tornado dangers...have your safe room prepped NOW!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 04:29 PM)
|
MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
|
|
Phil,
new is out, and my guess on my PM yesterday might be verifying for us. It has a major shift west, as it keeps it inland almost up the entire coast. It puts it just offshore my area, and just south of you at 84 hours, with L.I. getting strong winds, and heavy rains. For a while, I am in the right front quad. if this new shifted track is to be believed.
The reason I am inclined to believe this farther west track is, that I have been expecting the model to shift left for a few days now, and it has been doing just that.
We won't get anything near what our friends to the south do, but there is no part of the east coast that can handle these well right now. At least it will be moving at a pretty decent rate.
The H2O pic shows that ridge quite well. There is a ULL at 30N 50W that is diving down, which looks like it is helping bulge the ridge steering Jeanne more to the left.
The trof in the upper Great lakes does not look like it is breaking down the ridge as much as the models broke it down the other day. Jeanne should act to push back the front that is expected to move through our area, and for this reason, I think the may be a little underdone.
Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 25 2004 04:30 PM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
...and where are those darn Hurricane boys with the car on EBAY? They love the eye....
Looks like I95 south right now.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/tahoe.html
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Still too early to know, I'm not even sure how bad I am going to get it yet. I keep waiting for the turn and it's not happening. However, you should be prepared for possible cat. 1-2 effects. I'm not surprised it has continued due west. If you check my post from 8 am yesterday I predicted that. It wasn't a wishcast, it's what I call a worrycast. I just saw a beeline west track like Andrew and I still hold out a little hope it changes.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
Thanks for the update Mr.Spock. We are expected 50 mph winds at least that's what I heard, going to knock out power I bet, too many trees but nothing like what Florida will be about to experince.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
...and where are those darn Hurricane boys with the car on EBAY? They love the eye....
Looks like I95 south right now.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/tahoe.html
That one better not end up on Ebay, if you catch my drift!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Afternoon everyone, just a novice here who benefits from all the knowledge. Been away a b-day party what are current coordinates? How many think it makes it into the GOM?
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
|
|
If you're anywhere near Phil, take a look at this loop, as it shows it quite well....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
I know you guys got excessive rains from , which one of our forecasters down here said wouldn't affect us 5 days prior.
To me, a long range forecast right now is 48 hours!
|
tpratch
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
...and where are those darn Hurricane boys with the car on EBAY? They love the eye....
Looks like I95 south right now.
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/tahoe.html
ROFL - speed limit there is 70. They're going 67 with "gusts" up to 85
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Hi Phil
A lot of us are praying as well.
It just keeps on keepin on in florida.
THis is insane.
Like I've said, I'm so sad for all the damge that is ocurring in Florida.
From personal damage to beach erosion to flooding, it's all bad and very very costly.
Keep Praying everyone.
|
Katrianna
Unregistered
|
|
Just curious but what predictions do you guys think regarding northeast Fl? I'm just off the Amelia Island area in Nassau County, north of Jacksonville. Yesterday they had it going over us and today it is to the west. Curious about possible wind strength. We generaly get missed, yet we do get hyped its gonna hit us sooner or later.
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Another weather update (I'm northeast of Orlando btw, but not by much):
Barometric pressure has fallen a couple of millibars (998 now vs. 1000 earlier). The cloudiness is more pronounced than it was earlier this morning. The winds are also gusting up to around 15 mph, and these gusts are becoming more numerous. I can already tell that Jeanne is obviously going to have strong winds that will penetrate well inland. More updates to come.
I agree that an is occuring right now...almost looks as if the eyewall is jogging northwest. I believe that is a part of the replacement cycle. A category 4, although still not likely imo, is still possible at this point. That intensity would depend on what Jeanne makes of her last 9-12 hours over water.
If this is to be the finale for Florida hurricanes this season, it sure looks to be grand.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
