Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


#Bertha Tropical Storm Bertha Declared. Watches & Warnings up For Islands. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 28 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3203 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
14.9N 61.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 24 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Concerns [Re: danielw]
      #33775 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:36 PM

According to NRL, Matthew is now up to 45 mph, with a central pressure down 1mb to 1000mb.

--Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Concerns [Re: recmod]
      #33776 - Fri Oct 08 2004 09:45 PM

Well Polk County has a lot of trees down, a lot of debris waiting to be moved and some trees that are just waiting for a breeze to knock them over. So, it is possible that any prolonged rain or light continuous wind would inflict additional damage.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Concerns [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33779 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:02 PM

This panel from today's MRF with a low pressure center and high rainfall bullseye moving east toward central Florida has received a lot of attention today, I'm sure.
Jeff


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33781 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:11 PM

NHC/TPC have a new Invest (96L)

25kts-1009mb-278N-600W


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concerns [Re: HumanCookie]
      #33782 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:25 PM

That would be the Low they were watching off the Bermuda Coast. Have to check into that more.
The above mentioned Low is not reflected in Aviation WX Ctr's current analysis.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/?PHPSESSID=d3789dde7433be3840d32fe86ff58f78
The low can be seen here over the OK panhandle.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/WV/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

For the Floridians- these forecast maps show Matthew tracking into the mid LA coast.
Please use the TPC/NHC Advisories for formal info. This is just another Govt. source, and angle.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 10:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
1030PM Tropical WX Outlook [Re: danielw]
      #33783 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:35 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE National Hurricane Center HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 10:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Guest
Unregistered




Re: Concerns [Re: RevUp]
      #33784 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:41 PM

Inappropriate post removed.

Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 09 2004 12:36 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
More Thomas [Re: Guest]
      #33785 - Fri Oct 08 2004 10:53 PM

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Prospero
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 46
Loc: Gulfport, FL 27.74N 82.70W
Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33788 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:19 PM



Well, guess it has been over a week since we had our last one. At least now I know next time we can photograph our spoiled food and FEMA will take of it. (Or so I heard.)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
11PM Advisory [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33789 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:23 PM

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2004

...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

MATTHEW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Additional Information is available under "Current Storms" header.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 08 2004 11:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: More Thomas [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33790 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:30 PM

Quote:

Here is what Thomas had to say when he was accused of calling Mathew a T.S. 5 hours before the NHC did:

I called T.S. Matthew T.S. Matthew because it met all of the agreed upon parameters to be called such a beast. I pay no mind to what the NHC/TPC says or thinks. It's called real weather forecasting, not parroting the official government line.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL




Yes Thomas really put me in my place . I didn't think asking a question would get that much attention .

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: LI Phil]
      #33791 - Fri Oct 08 2004 11:56 PM

Quote:

\
I know Ed doesn't like NHC bashing, but THEY TOTALLY DROPPED THE BALL ON THIS ONE!

This thing was a TD yesterday...




I was supposed to do some outdoorsy things this weekend and since it was supposed to rain, I looked at the LA doppler radar. Not looking promising, I looked at the GOM IR to see what was coming our way after the immediate rain. When I saw that area in the western Gulf this morning, it sure looked like something to me.... Glad I am not just seeing things....

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
:( [Re: HCW]
      #33792 - Sat Oct 09 2004 12:27 AM

grrrr. After having gone through Ivan and seeing how things are TRYING to get back to a little normalcy around here ---as the junk piles up. I just can't believe there's a TS with the track right back over the area! Good grief!!!! There are so many damaged roofs. NOT GOOD

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: :( [Re: SirCane]
      #33794 - Sat Oct 09 2004 12:59 AM

Models are coming out.
Canadian model takes Matthew to a Houma, LA to Little Rock, AR path.

UKMET takes Matthew to Pensacola, across the FL peninsula, east of Daytona Beach, and then to offshore Cape Hatteras at 132hrs or Thursday morning at 12Z.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2268
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Terra]
      #33795 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:02 AM

Sorry, but I disagree. In my opinion, the tropical cyclone was a TD this morning, but not a TS - and certainly not yesterday when it was still poorly organized. One person's opinion (including mine) does not make it necessarily so. Measurement and analysis are the real tools that settle the question, not opinion.

As to TS Matthew, I'm still having trouble visualizing the northward leg of the forecast track - I just can't find any significant support for it. The storm may well continue on a general east northeast course for the next few days. If that happens, I'd look for landfall (as a 50 knot Tropical Storm) somewhere between the mouth of the Suwannee River and Cedar Key around 22Z Monday evening with exit near Palm Valley at 09Z on the 12th (at 40 knots). Since Matthew has hybrid characteristics, it would probably hold TS status across the northern Peninsula. Its a rather small system, so both the wind field and the rainfall should not be widespread. Earlier today the GFDL did bring it up to hurricane status, but I think that the westerly shear is too great for that much intensification to take place. At any rate is sure looks like yet another storm for Florida in 2004.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33796 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:32 AM

Having a fun tropical night myself. Beers are being chugged and cigs are being smoked. The bulk of the worst weather tonight has been in Terrebonne Parish where, in some parts, they're on a 2-day total of 10"+. There was a several hour training band from the Gulf just west of Houma, and that's now pulled slightly east.

Ed,

As Joe B said at 11, if it tracks far enough south, it will remain in the entrance region into the jet (Quad 1). That's different from shear. Should that be the case, Matthew has a chance to go higher than 50 IMHO.

Landfall will be east of me, but I'm just hoping for another tropical day or so if possible.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
recon on the way! [Re: Steve]
      #33797 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:41 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090516
97779 05164 70291 9000/ 30200 15036 0707/ /3144
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 01


my recon guess, i think pressure may go down to around 997mb, winds 45kts....
movem.....ene 8kts
thinking a strong TS at landfall close to PCB area....late sunday night

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 09 2004 01:52 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Matthew Forms in Western Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve]
      #33798 - Sat Oct 09 2004 01:56 AM

I have noticed the high thin cirrus is more prevalent on the western quads of Matthew. Sat imagery through 0400Z continues to show a central storm core with very high cloud tops and a near-complete ring of -75 to -80deg cloud top temperatures surrounding the core.

Recon is airborne should have some new data within the hour.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mikeG
Unregistered




RECON? [Re: danielw]
      #33800 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:26 AM

URNT11 KNHC 090618
97779 06184 70292 8980/ 24400 15044 0909/ /8010
RMK AF866 0314A MATTHEW OB 04
LAST REPORT.

MUST OF HAD PROBLEM


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3457
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: RECON? [Re: mikeG]
      #33801 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:37 AM

Yep, I was just telling Coop the same thing.
NDBC-buoy center down, sats down-for another hour.

The cirrus outflow has me concerned. Buoys aren't reflecting an increase in windspeeds, but the cirrus "fingers" on the W semicircle are very obvious. Where's the shear?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 21 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 23743

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center