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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Otto Ends the Unforgettable 2004 Hurricane Season
      #34603 - Wed Dec 01 2004 11:01 AM

Otto has formed, on the last day of the 2004 Hurricane Season, and is out to sea, ending what the most amazing, nerve wracking, destructive modern hurricane season in a good while.

Four storms impacted Florida, all hurricanes. Crossing areas in Florida that have been untouched by hurricanes in many years... multiple times in one year. Blue roofs became commonplace, bridges washed out, long beaches became drop offs, and power being out almost became routine. For many, Florida and its people have changed after this season, which hopefully will never be repeated again like this. However the potential is still there and starting June 1st, 2005 we'll watch again.

Thanks to all the help I received this year, including from those willing to help moderate, and those who contributed bandwidth, money, tshirts, cds, notes, prayers, and maps!
Next season will bring a few changes to the site, but I'm aiming for the better.

Otto is a farewell track for this season, the fact October and most of November had nothing to track was a welcome relief.


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical Storm Otto Ends the Unforgettable 2004 Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #34605 - Wed Dec 01 2004 11:36 AM

Yes indeed! Good day my peeps

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Skeetobite Map Project [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34606 - Wed Dec 01 2004 12:19 PM

The following post came from Skeeter in the previous thread. I wanted to repost it here to give him an extra special holiday shout.

Awesome dude, just awesome! Good luck with the NHC! CFHC ROCKS. THANK YOU MIKE & JOHN FOR THIS SITE!!!

Here's Skeeter's post:

Man, I was wondering why my ears were burning!

Here’s my vote (users should be able to zoom in on their area for street level graphics):

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best of all scenarios: Use Skeetobite's graphics, superimpose the NRL wind fields and put the dotted 'cone of uncertainty' lightly around it all
-Richard


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Some quick notes on the Skeeobite map project. First, let me say this has been an enjoyable and productive hobby. I am grateful for the opportunity to deploy any talents that may be helpful to others. Thanks to everyone for your feedback and kind comments.

NOAA, (specifically) NHC, NASA, Disney, Busch Gardens - et al, the Governors’ office in Tallahassee, every military base along the coast from Texas to Virginia and all military bases inland in Florida used Skeetobite.com daily during the hurricane season.

None of this would have been possible without CFHC. Prior to moving to Florida in July, I bookmarked this website and followed the discussion daily since early February.

I have contacted the NHC and offered to meet with them to discuss the lessons learned from ordinary folks and professionals who used our maps. If you view all of the archived maps, you will see how they evolved during the season based on feedback from the users of CFHC, end users and meteorologists all over the country.

Thanks everyone.
Jonathon Grant
Lakeland, FL

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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susheedoll
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Otto Ends the Unforgettable 2004 Hurricane Season [Re: MikeC]
      #34610 - Wed Dec 01 2004 06:05 PM

Thanks a bunch for the timely info and updates...awesome job this year!

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: LI Phil]
      #34611 - Wed Dec 01 2004 06:42 PM

Quote:

The following post came from Skeeter in the previous thread. I wanted to repost it here to give him an extra special holiday shout.



Phil, thanks for reposting this. I saw it at the end of the other thread and hoped it would end up in the 'current pile'.

Skeeter, one question surfaces: What, if any, response did the NHC give you regarding your offer to talk to them about their graphics and your involvement, if any? I hope it was positive, and we'll all be interested in the outcome from such talks.

You certainly have the majority of the members of *this* board on your support wagon and I think that all who know you, or of you, offer their thanks for your efforts during this past season. I pray that you can continue to provide the service next year, OR/AND that you can induce the NHC to adopt some of your services (hopefully for compensation) in their official forecast graphics.

Phil, given that many of the 'regulars' are not online now the end of the season has past, what do you think of an E-Mail to those that posted their stats in the profiles, that suggest they visit the NHC and offer their suggestions and comments on their graphics proposals? I'd help if you guys think it would be appropriate and useful.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: Ricreig]
      #34612 - Wed Dec 01 2004 07:15 PM

Richard,

(and yes I did get your e-mail). I think that's a splendid idea, but I think we should wait another week...see who else checks in and then spread the word.

On a related note, I think everyone involved with this site should nominate Mike & John for a "National Hurricane Conference" Award for providing us all with a forum such as this. Their countless time, energy and MONEY, especially this season (TSFH [tm ME]), certainly saved lives and alerted many who might otherwise have chosen to stay when the prudent course of action was clearly to leave. Here's the link:

http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/awardinfo.htm

and the actual nomination form:

http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/form.pdf

I would think the most logical award would be in the area of "Public Awareness" or "News Media" (afterall, this may be a weather enthusiast site, but it does convey "news" and the Internet is certainly the fastest growing medium there is) but many of the categories apply.

Additionally, Skeeter could be nominated as well for his mapping genius; probably would have to compete in the "Public Awareness" category as well.

We could pass along both facets to the regulars and urge them to contact NHC & nominate Mike/John (or CFHC) and Skeet.

Let me know your thoughts everybody!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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mapmajor
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: Ricreig]
      #34613 - Wed Dec 01 2004 07:21 PM

Not happy with ANY of the NHC alternatives.

That's all I posted at first, then figured just complaining is not a good thing---one should offer an alternative if one is unhappy with what has been presented.

Graphics need to be more like JTWC, should also show swaths and probable path ellipses as now, except instead of just one ellipse, should show with percentages superimposed in the CEP circles--ie, one line/ellipse means there is an 80% probability the storm will move within that ellipse, next is 50%, and last ellipse shows the total probable error over the forecast period, just as is done now.

FWIW.



MM


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: LI Phil]
      #34616 - Wed Dec 01 2004 07:56 PM

That's a great idea, Phil! I second that notion wholeheartedly.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: mapmajor]
      #34617 - Wed Dec 01 2004 08:12 PM

Richard, I haven't heard back from NHC yet, but will post in detaill when I do.

Quote:

Not happy with ANY of the NHC alternatives.

That's all I posted at first, then figured just complaining is not a good thing---one should offer an alternative if one is unhappy with what has been presented.

Graphics need to be more like JTWC, should also show swaths and probable path ellipses as now, except instead of just one ellipse, should show with percentages superimposed in the CEP circles--ie, one line/ellipse means there is an 80% probability the storm will move within that ellipse, next is 50%, and last ellipse shows the total probable error over the forecast period, just as is done now.

FWIW.

MM




A serious challenge to anyone seeking to disseminate information is how to best present the data in a fashion that holds the greatest value for the greatest share of your audience. No one (1) map, by NHC, Skeetobite or anyone else will give all of the relevant details for all parties. A number of new maps are required. Casual users want something pretty, enthusiasts want tons of data and those folks stopping by because they heard a hurricane is coming to their area need a graphical depiction of the specific threat that they can understand at a glance and take action.

We started adding comments to the maps because we found that the storms were so large in area that anyone living within the entire map was affected to one degree or another. This was especially true of Frances. These comments included; “Tropical Storm force winds extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. All areas on this map are affected”, “Hurricane force winds extend x miles from center”.

I believe that the accuracy of the NRL wind field maps combined with the forecast path, overlaid on a real street map is the best way to go. One major problem is that the NRL wind field maps are for winds occurring over the ocean, which is useless when trying to forecast wind fields over land.

Here is an inland wind field map by the NHC that should have much more prominence on their website.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/GC13508.GIF
Users should have easy access to this map and should be able to zoom to the county level, at a minimum. These maps could be combined with the Skeetobite maps very easily. People don’t understand what is coming until you show them a street map with “123 anystreet” covered in red and you tell them that tonight is the night that pigs will actually take flight.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #34619 - Wed Dec 01 2004 08:43 PM



Here's the image skeet is talking about...I agree this should be added to the "arsenal" of available maps, because it shows a specific threat to a specific area, but I think, even for the most novice of us, that map still needs a "hurricane" symbol indicating current position and a directional indicator of some kind, whether it be a cone, a dotted line or whatever. Nevertheless, I cannot wait (well, after 2004, yes I can) to see how skeets & NHC "collaboration" produces new and better maps for 2005.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: LI Phil]
      #34620 - Thu Dec 02 2004 12:17 AM

better stay innovative with the stuff you're doing, skeeto. it's amazing that the NHC crowd hadn't caught onto the power of GIS yet (maybe somebody was afraid the detailed, unambiguous maps would scare the poor, stupid pubwick), and a bit surprising that nobody else had gone and done it either... i've got a feeling that lots of people will have Skeetobite-type GIS-based graphics coming online in 2005. hope you've got a macro based on the inland wind model and landfall radii that can make a peak wind swath.. and have it ready before other people come up with it.
of course, it'd all just be a model.. as tropical systems break up over land you get a localities with more rain, locally higher winds in a rainband, and path wobbles as the inner core deteriorates... but it'd be much better than nothing.
HF 0401z02december


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34622 - Thu Dec 02 2004 09:17 PM

Thanks HF.

I've already started on a few beta maps for next year. I don't think we should wait for others to mobilize.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Skeetobite Map Project [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #34626 - Fri Dec 03 2004 05:01 PM

Great stuff skeeter! Time to start makin' some bank! Just don't forget us here at CFHC when you hit it big with the NHC next season...

BTW Gray's 2005 Forecast is out, and I posted a link to it in the Storm Forum...and here as well:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/dec2004/

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Dec 03 2004 05:02 PM)


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Map Master
Unregistered




Re: DG Forecast---- [Re: LI Phil]
      #34628 - Sat Dec 04 2004 01:03 PM

Of course, they didn't expect the 2004 season to do what it did, so, Doc G's comment along those lines is some sort of weird PR fluff, nothing to it. He should have left the line about not expecting the season to be like 2004 ,off---maybe it will be, maybe it won't---NO ONE can forecast that , one way or the other.

MM

I strongly support Dr G and his supports, but, empty reassurances that mean nothing...mean NOTHING. Statistically he probably is right...but, if you read his analysis of this year's season....he said there is NO ONE who could have forecast that the 'deficit' from past years would be 'made up ' in one year...so, Doc, heed your own words.

Next year could be very quiet landfall wise----or just like this year. We don't have enough history to know....odds are, it WON't be, but, maybe we will 'make up ' for slow future years, in advance, next year...just as likely, you know.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: DG Forecast---- [Re: Map Master]
      #34629 - Sun Dec 05 2004 07:02 PM

Not going to start an argument here but...the odds are always against a landfalling hurricane, so many things have to be exact, hence the reason "An act of god." He saw what could happen, and he's stating the worse, the best thing to do in times like these.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
argument [Re: Keith234]
      #34632 - Sun Dec 05 2004 07:36 PM

odds against a landfalling hurricane? in what context? in a typical year you get one or more.
HF 2334z05december


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: argument [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34633 - Sun Dec 05 2004 08:01 PM

Well, you have many variables that have to be suffice in order for one to consider it a land falling hurricane. Strength (in all stages), water temp., source region, how much shear, and what direction, upper level features: placement, strength, origin, are all variables that the hurricane has to consider, to say in a metaphoric way. In a typical year you get a hurricane land fall out of many that couldn't have touched land...that's why this season was so different, the amount of land falling hurricanes, and why is that so rare?Because of probability.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: argument [Re: Keith234]
      #34634 - Sun Dec 05 2004 11:47 PM

What?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: BOC? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34645 - Thu Dec 16 2004 02:19 PM

Well, whaddaya know...wave forming in SW BOC, moving NE....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

MM


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: BOC? [Re: Mapmaster]
      #34646 - Thu Dec 16 2004 05:14 PM

yeah.. reckon that's some of the subtropical energy set to feed into the coastal storm that should develop sunday off the southeast. the subtropical jet is active.. with these canadian airmasses diving down the continent, it's just a matter of timing for a winter storm in the southeastern u.s... got an inkling about something happening around christmas. i could use a good snowball fight.
HF 2110z16december


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