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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: BOC? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34647 - Fri Dec 17 2004 07:26 AM

Quote:

for a winter storm in the southeastern u.s... got an inkling about something happening around christmas. i could use a good snowball fight.


Betcha Orlando won't get any snowballs this time though

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: BOC? [Re: Ricreig]
      #34648 - Fri Dec 17 2004 09:33 AM

And take a look east of the islands...a little vorticity out there too.

MM


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Map update [Re: MikeC]
      #34649 - Fri Dec 17 2004 06:52 PM

Just a short note to advise that I have not heard backfrom NHC or NOAA. After looking closely at the three proposals for improved maps, I feel the new maps convey no more useful information to the layperson than the current version. the NHC maps appear to be directed at weather professionals who understand the "cone of uncertainty", etc.

I can report that the NOAA server has been generating a large number of sessions at Skeetobite.com over the past 3 to 4 weeks.

After the holidays I will post a few beta Skeetobite maps for your review and feedback. Also, watch for a wicked cool new interface for the site.

JG


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Re: Map update [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #34650 - Fri Dec 17 2004 10:22 PM

Agree re: no improvement in the suggestions...maybe they did that on purpose??

I still say...go the JTWC way.

MM


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Map update [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #34651 - Sat Dec 18 2004 03:32 AM

Skeet.... you are on your way to something big....not that you are not already there If we could just get the model data put in! I know in good time it will happen!

Happy Holidays to All!

Coop

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Map update [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #34652 - Sat Dec 18 2004 09:28 AM

Quote:

Just a short note to advise that I have not heard backfrom NHC or NOAA. After looking closely at the three proposals for improved maps, I feel the new maps convey no more useful information to the layperson than the current version. the NHC maps appear to be directed at weather professionals who understand the "cone of uncertainty", etc.



My faith in govenrmental inertia and ineptitude is apparantly being justified once again by their combination of providing no real improvements and apparant lack of interest in your talants. I, for one, remain estatic that you have joined us here at CFHC and especially happy that you will be with us again next season. I hope the newspapers and TV stations you referred to in an earlier post will pick up your maps and USE them. It would be nice if the NHC would realize that lives are saved by providing MORE information to the public, not less and incorporate your maps into their offerings to the public, especially in the critical 24-48 hours prior to landfall when the detail your maps offer can illustrate to and convince people that a *line* 30-40 miles away from them does NOT mean they won't be affected by the storm. Keep up the good work and We'll anxiously await our belated Christmas present from Skeeterbite Hmmmm, I wonder, is Skeeterbite going to track Santa on his annual visit to the roofs of good little boys and girls?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Map update [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34653 - Sat Dec 18 2004 09:02 PM

Sorry to hear that things are slow Skeet. I would imagine that the Holidays have something to do with it. Someone, somewhere, said "Good things come to those who wait". I believe that You and the rest of us her a familiar with that phrase. It keeps the nerves calm and the tempers down. By my count there are 28 days left in the NHC review. Give'em heck folks.

On a lighter note. I see Hank and Richard are making plans for a Christmas snowball fight in the South..Why NOT, we've had every other extreme this year. GFSX has me waking up to a 14deg F on Christmas morning. 60 miles north of the GOM...!

Happy Holidays to all, enjoy the time off and the Snow (if you see any).
Richard, we'll freeze a few snowballs and ship them to you!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Map update [Re: danielw]
      #34654 - Sun Dec 19 2004 08:45 AM

Quote:

Happy Holidays to all, enjoy the time off and the Snow (if you see any).
Richard, we'll freeze a few snowballs and ship them to you!


Ummmm, same to ya Daniel....but could you moke those snow *cones*....I can get some syrup and...

The official forecast for Christmas here in O'town:

Christmas Day: Partly cloudy, with a high around 57. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Not too white is it? Oh well, when the snowballs and syrup melt, we can all have Slurpees

Merry Christmas to all!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Map update [Re: Ricreig]
      #34656 - Mon Dec 20 2004 01:32 PM

as far as the map options go, i'm satisfied with the existing stuff.. for what it is, it serves it's purpose. it's a decent source for track and movement probability along with all of the usual global model output. option 2 removes the forecast path line (what good does that do).. the third option looks neat with a regular track, but with a meandering forecast track becomes confusing. they ought to just use a cone of probability with time advancement lines for possible movement, and a model of the predicted path with the wind swath overlaid... Skeetobite fashion stuff.
fun stuff for weather aficionados, useful information for the informed, but of course a new tool to generate hype in the hands of the ratings-hungry press.
anywho.. globals have a complex deep layer low spinning up in the central atlantic late in the week. it gets a lazy eye for now.
as far as snow potential.. there may be some up here. globals in the last couple of days had been trending the weather offshore, but the pattern is starting to look less progressive again, with the first storm a warm rainy one for mid week, with the arctic cold advection behind it and a second system developing in the western gulf early on the 24th. still low confidence what goes down.. euro and GFS haven't agreed on it's evolution yet. official NWS forecast still has it dry here as well... and cold. they aren't taking the bait just yet. nor am i. Accuweather has a 1-3 inch snow band over me at least.
HF 1720z20december


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MapMaster
Unregistered




Santa, can I have a STS for Christmas??? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34657 - Tue Dec 21 2004 03:10 PM

From Atlantic Discussion, re: trof to east of islands translating to surface....looks like, indeed, it is , and...

"SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET INITIATE A SFC LOW ALONG THE TROF OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE
TROF BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM
OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
THE MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL-TYPE LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N AND REACH A CLIMAX BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. "

MM


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Mapmaster
Unregistered




Re: Santa, can I have a STS for Christmas??? [Re: MapMaster]
      #34659 - Wed Dec 22 2004 11:31 AM

Latest from this morning:

"HOWEVER BROAD DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-23N
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W. A WEAK LOW SHOULD FORM
BY THU AROUND 22N35W AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS SEVERAL
MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE OF A "HYBRID" TYPE WITH SOME POSSIBLE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THIS SITUATION IS
UNCERTAIN AS THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER VERY COOL WATER TEMPS
NEAR 23C.. MAKING ANY SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM LESS LIKELY. "


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Santa, can I have a STS for Christmas??? [Re: Mapmaster]
      #34660 - Wed Dec 22 2004 01:31 PM

otto formed under much the same set of environmental conditions, originating from a similar system about four weeks ago. the old 26-27c rule doesn't work well with hybrids in the subtropics, especially in the cold months. i'd give this feature more account if it were to get a substantial and persistent upper feature at first, as a transitional core warming and deep surface low would require a solid break in the strong westerlies this time of year. recalling how long the NHC sat on otto before classification, i'd say the chances of a classified system are near zero, but should be worth tracking nonetheless.
MM you're as bad as me, rooting for hybrid fishspinners in the off months...
might as well get one, the forecast for snow here at the end of the week turned into a wash. dull dry cold is what i'm getting.
HF 1729z22december


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Santa, can I have a STS for Christmas??? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34661 - Wed Dec 22 2004 01:32 PM

Quote:


MM you're as bad as me, rooting for hybrid fishspinners in the off months...
might as well get one, the forecast for snow here at the end of the week turned into a wash. dull dry cold is what i'm getting.
HF 1729z22december


Yeah HF, it looks like our snowball fight is off, at least for a while. I didn't even get any 'snowcones' in the mail from Danny Oh well, the season is young....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Merry Christmas To All! [Re: Ricreig]
      #34662 - Thu Dec 23 2004 11:00 AM

MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL CFHC POSTERS!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34663 - Thu Dec 23 2004 02:15 PM

Same Here! Happy Holidays

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34664 - Fri Dec 24 2004 01:11 PM

Merry Christmas, all. tomorrow at least.
the gale center in the east central atlantic has been spinning up and coalescing in the last 12 hours or so. the twd has made mention of another deep layer system developing in the region.. these are low probability features that will have to persist and remain shielded in a cut-off environment for a couple days if they are to transition.. the westerlies will rip them apart if they can't.
spotty sleet mixing in with rain downstate across georgia to the fl panhandle. snow potential here is completely gone now.
HF 1805z24december


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34665 - Fri Dec 24 2004 04:36 PM



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34666 - Fri Dec 24 2004 04:52 PM

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL!!! Only a couple of hours to go here.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: James88]
      #34667 - Fri Dec 24 2004 05:36 PM

Don't you know Santa doesn't come if someone is awake...go to sleep! Just kidding, have a merry christmas and a happy new year.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Merry Christmas To All! [Re: Keith234]
      #34668 - Fri Dec 24 2004 11:34 PM

i still don't feel like taking the bait.. yet.. but the official has a chance of winter weather back in the forecast here for tomorrow night. naturally, the system forecast to shunt out off the eastern seaboard is now riding north along it.. but with less cold advection to work with. it will have to really spin up to create anything significant, other than a lot of rain on the coast.
central atlantic feature is complex, with multiple vortices and more upper shortwave energy being entrained.. the slim likelihood we'd have a storm candidate has shrunken a bit more.
HF 0421z25december


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