MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Merry Christmas all. When I get back from my trip I'll be setting up the site for the new year!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Some of ya'll in the SOUTH are enjoying an historic White Christmas!!! Enjoy...2004 THE SEASON FROM HELL [tm Me] won't quit, will it? Mike, thanks for all you did this season, can't wait for 2005 with the new and improved ! ED, Happy B-day on the 26th!!! Everyone be safe.
My best to you and yours for a happy, healthy & SAFE holiday season!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hope everyone enjoyed the first part of the Holidays. As it's 01:22Z now and Christmas Day is passing across the globe.
Phil, your trademark "Season from Hell", has now been changed to "The season from the North Pole".
A little off topic.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
THIS CHRISTMAS SAW SLEET AND SNOW FALLING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...PROVIDING A RARE WHITE
CHRISTMAS EXPERIENCE. THIS IS THE FIRST WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE REGION SINCE 1954.
By DOUG SIMPSON / Associated Press
NEW ORLEANS — Parts of Louisiana saw a slightly white Christmas on Saturday, and freezing rain, sleet and low temperatures forced state police to shut down interstates and state highways.
Brief flurries were reported in New Orleans, New Iberia and and elsewhere. Much of south Louisiana saw more rain than snow, however, and temperatures in the low 30s caused ice to form on bridges, forcing the closure of large stretches of interstates 55, 10 and 310, state police said.
The Huey P. Long Bridge near New Orleans was closed, as were the Sunshine Bridge in St. James Parish, the Veterans Memorial Bridge in St. John the Baptist Parish and bridges throughout Acadiana. U.S. Highway 90 was closed between Morgan City and Broussard because of ice.
The mass transit system in New Orleans halted all its buses and streetcars because of the sleet and icy streets and rail tracks, spokeswoman Rosalind Cook said. "They're having problems ... with the buses operating and some of our operators are having trouble getting into work," Cook said.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05c-temp.jpg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CHRISTMAS 2004 WILL BE LEGENDARY AS BROWNSVILLE HAS ACCUMULATED SNOW FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE FEBRUARY 1895 . 1/2 INCH HAS ACCUMULATED AT
THE OFFICE, WITH UNINSULATED FEATURES HAVING OVER 1 INCH. SPOTTERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO FAR. KMFE HAS REPORTED 3.5 INCHES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HISTORIC CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM FOR SOUTH TEXAS SLOWLY IN THE PROCESS OF WANING. THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE AT 09Z AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA
HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
THE BIG CHRISTMAS EVE STORM IS WINDING DOWN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE WAKING UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IN BAY CITY
AND 4 INCHES IN WHARTON...TAPERING OFF TO 2 INCHES IN LEAGUE CITY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES AT JAMAICA BEACH. WOW! THE AREA HASN'T SEEN THIS KIND OF SNOWFALL SINCE AT LEAST 1989.
Storm totals from HGX.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/HGX/PNSHGX.0412251848
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
249 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
...WEATHER EVENT...SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET FROM OFFSHORE RIGS.
10 MILES SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...32 DEGREES
WITH SLEET. 10 MILES OFF VERMILION...1 INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. 104
MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON...SNOW.
As of this post there has been at least 1 weather related fatality, Due to icing on bridges in Terrebone Parish ( S of New Orleans).
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hank and Richard. This is why they call it Whether Forecasting!
Richard, your snow melted on the way down to the ground. Sorry!
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORLANDO...SANFORD
400 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
Maybe Hank can ship you some Snow! His forecast follows:
ZONE FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...AUGUSTA...BISHOPVILLE...COLUMBIA...
LEXINGTON...SUMTER
...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
.TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT MIXING WITH
SLEET. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET IN THE MORNING. PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
Got Snow Shovels?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I thought STS was the abbreviation for Space Transport Shuttle. Never thought about it being Sub Tropical System.
I wonder if the STS's affect the STSs?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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sho' nuff. sleet started falling here around a quarter past nine.. a few snowflakes starting to mix in. looks like the thicknesses are just low enough so that this isn't a borrrrring cold rain event. the low level air is very dry, but all the evaporation is depressing the temperature (there is cold air damming helping out as well). came back to the house around eleven, with plenty of sleet still spic-spacking off the windshield.. the roads aren't icing yet at least. that should change over the next couple of hours.. temp drops about 2 degrees every three hours or so. don't think i'm going to church tomorrow.. if any of the kids show up they'll be getting an improvised sunday school lesson from another source.
FYI all, decent low level vortex in the central atlantic with intermittent convection, but it won't ever make the cut. there may be a secondary, but it's still all wishful thinking. at least i'm getting my much-desired winter weather (be it sleet or snow.. had my freezing rain quota for the next decade back in january).
HF 0442z26december (happy something-th birthday to ed, moderator-in-chief)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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and things ended up as just sleet. there's a coating on the ground, 1/4" of ice on the trees.. not as bad as the destructive ice storm of january '04 by any means. the precip is gone now.
look out near 21/48.. where the 'secondary' upper system is entrenching and quite possibly generating a surface system. based on its rapid evolution and the initial convective nature.. i'd say it bears watching as it moves north and east in the central atlantic.
non-weather event, but the 8.9 earthquake in the indian ocean has made itself the #1 killer event of 2004.. the tsunamis it generated have killed untold people.. easily inside a five figure death toll. all the hurricanes this year probably won't compare to it.
HF 1534z26december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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That quake & tsunamis pretty much put a cap on the SEASON FROM HELL [tm LI Phil]. Maybe ED (Happy Birthday!) can do a 2004 Weather (all kinds) wrapup in one of the forums sometime in the next couple of weeks. Or maybe not.
Hope everyone enjoyed their holidays...and all those who had a white (or almost white) Christmas, what a surprise! I'll be sure to ship some of the white stuff down to Richard & anyone else who wants it. My forecast for today:
...snow heading toward the tri-state region...
.a low pressure center developing off the southeast portion of our nation will move rather quickly northeastward to a point well east of nantucket by monday morning. light snow will develop from south to north across the region this afternoon...and become steady this evening and overnight.
1003 am est sun dec 26 2004
the low pressure center will be too far off the coast to produce a significant snowfall for new jersey...the metropolitan area and points north...but 1 to 3 inches of accumulation appear possible by the time it ends monday morning.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that a weather wrap-up of 2004 would probably take at least two weeks to complete - what a year it has been. But I will post the season storm forecast results in the Storm Forum later today/tonight.
Thanks to all for the Birthday wishes and PMs - nice of you to remember. BTW, its the big 65 today.
Cheers,
ED
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Happy b-day Ed!! On another note, it almost looks like the storm has more of a northward track then eastward...I wonder how this will affect snow totals!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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we had high winds in coastal Brevard county, just thought i'd mention it here. Winds were sustained at about 40 mph, gusted 50-60 mph, with a 75 mph wind gust at the pier in Jetty Park pier (if anyone knows where that is at)
Also, there was damage, some branches down, a light pole almost blew over, and there was some minor roof damage with tiles and tar paper lying on the road. Also, a large department store lost a section of roof.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Definitely a El Nino sparked storm. The southern jet was a little energized. The NWS had no clue to the wind or temp. Was in the 40's here in South Fl last night and was predicted just recently to be 55F. I think Jan 05 will be a roller coaster ride with more southern storms and cold. 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Thanks to all for the Birthday wishes and PMs - nice of you to remember. BTW, its the big 65 today.
Cheers,
ED
ED, 65 what? You have got to be kidding! Happy Belated Birthday. Whatever number it is!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This had nothing to do with the el nino per se, I saw this coming just by the way the was forecasting. It was jumping on the cold, snow, ice, etc. just as it is with the upcoming period of warm weather. Actually, after this "warm-up" the southern branch storms will not stop but slow, and the northern branch will once again become pre-dominante-just as it was before. But yes you can and will experince more cold, and southern branch storms, that seems to be a given this year.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the confirmed toll from the south asian tsunami is around 80000 right now and climbing. i was fairly sure it would be five figures at first, but wasn't expecting it to get near six. seem to recall someone posting a study of the la palma volcano study earlier this year on the forum.. pray nothing like this happens in the atlantic.
the last three tropical cyclone reports came out right before christmas.. on , , and nicole.
no notable changes or new information were post analyzed on or nicole's tracks (a little surprising with nicole, as it's phase before 10 october does merit best track data). however had it's terminal track to the alabama coast revised, with the maximum winds at landfall adjusted to 105kt. there is also official data on it's and redevelopment phase.
2004 is closing out. after years of lucky misses the charmed life florida had been living since the mid 60s (minus 1992) came crashing down. at least the chances that 2005 will be similarly awful are statistically low.
we'll be ready here at , whatever comes of it.
HF 0445z30december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> seem to recall someone posting a study of the la palma volcano study earlier this year on the forum.. pray nothing like this happens in the atlantic.
Yep, HF, good memory...that was me. As of Thursday at noon, death tolls are eclipsing 6 figures, making this easily the deadliest tsunami ever recorded. And if I hear ONE more news agency or any other media use the term "Tidal Wave" (which a tsunami is NOT!), someone's going to lose an eye.
Here's a link to the La Palma abstract:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start....pdf&e=7207
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith(234)
Unregistered
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by far it is not the deadiest wave ever recorded...a wave in China killed millions of people in 1919 i believe. Gotta check my sources...but it's no where near it.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1227_041226_tsunami.html#main
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/12/29/tech/main663740.shtml
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Well someone has the wrong sources, but Newsday says, "India tsunami stacks up second to South China Sea tsunami- which killed a million."
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Well someone has the wrong sources, but Newsday says, "India tsunami stacks up second to South China Sea tsunami- which killed a million."
Keith, you cannot believe ANYTHING you read in Newsday...they do not check their "sources". Trust me when I say this is the deadliest...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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