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Archives >> 2004 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
initial bids, 2005
      #34575 - Tue Nov 30 2004 06:25 PM

hey folks, ready to take a blind stab at the 2005 season numbers? after another extremely active year (4 of the last five years have had 15 or greater tropical/subtropical systems), i'd feel safe putting my '05 numbers up in the stratosphere. the generalizations about the coming year i'd render a guess at are as follows:
1) ENSO progged to go neutral to negative (net guess-timate weak la nina conditions). favorable, though season numbers haven't necessarily been higher during stronger la nina conditions (this year for example).
2) inhibting QBO.. not a strong factor.
3) backing from SOI negative spells probably not going to be as prominent by late season.. but perhaps early season activity may be generated by it's appearance.
4) expect a more strung out season in '05 than the tight, thick activity we had in august-september 2004.
unlike previous years i'm going to slant my numbers later on if they start looking unrealistic (recall mentioning by late spring '04 that i was low, but went down with the ship anyway). it was not a higher standard i was holding to, just reckless hardheadedness.. even though it had served me in the past.
so, for 2005 i reckon:
17 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
that's all the way through Rita. i figure why the hell not.
i of course reserve the right to adjust this guesscast... especially downward.
a'ite then, feel free to drop your post '04 numbers on this thread.. i'll consider any contributions through december as valid 6-7 month lead forecasts. gray will issue his lead forecast on friday.. add yours before then if you really want to impress.
around the end of march another thread of this ilk will appear, just ahead of gray's early april issuance. another will appear around the last week of may.
HF 2224z30november


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34578 - Tue Nov 30 2004 06:51 PM

Ah, why not. I'm thinking we'll have another neutral season next year, potentially slightly warm phase ENSO. Not a significant factor on activity, as we've seen.

The climatology has been skewed upwards the past 5 years as a result of the inclusion of subtropical storms into the tropical climatology, but the prediction of these storms is akin to wildly guessing and the naming of these storms is a factor of whatever the NHC feels like at that particular instant.

With that in mind, while I would anticipate a year just above climo of about 12 storms, I'm going to go with 13 because of the subtropical storm factor.

I do not anticipate we will see as many storms affect Florida, if only because of the climatological unlikeliness of it all. We will likely see a more active Gulf season, I feel, along with more activity along the Outer Banks. Of the 13 above storms, I feel 7 will become hurricanes. This is above climo.

In terms of major hurricanes, likely 3 of those 7 hurricanes will reach cat 3 status, with only one threatening land, likely as a Caribbean storm. Another may affect the Outer Banks as it recurves in a weakened state. We seem to get one of those each year, and as noted above I don't expect nearly as much of a threat to Florida this year as in previous years.

All in all, nothing too far out of the ordinary...
13 storms (12 tropical, 1 subtropical), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes
(subject to revision, of course!)

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: Clark]
      #34582 - Tue Nov 30 2004 08:41 PM



ENSO-warm-phase subject to change as time progresses, I feel that if it is active in the summer time, that southern "jet" really will retreat the mean sub-tropical ridge, father west and north then normal.

QBO( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)-peaked in August this year at -24 eastery phase, that tells you something...forecasted to go westerly for the next 12 months and once again peaking in late August and September only this time the opposite.

ATC (Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation)- in the strong phase for the decade at least, but subject to large fluctuation a la 2002. Probably produce some warmer then normal waters (noticeable) in the Caribbean and the GOM, usually suspects.

NAO-This year was positive at least as a mean. Really pumped the subby, thereafter steered just about every storm into the GOM Florida region...next year as a average I feel it will be positive, or just higher up - not necessarily in the mid-Atlantic coast region. Suggesting that the flow will favor recurviving storms.

Mean Development Region

Gulf of Mexico area/Caribbean sea- probably see an early storm pop up off the coast of South America ride it's way over the Yutcan and get into the Bay of Campeche (TD). See 1 major hurricane impacting the mouth of Mississippi area late July early August and then a tropical storm late in the end of September.

Florida/Southeast - not nearly as many storms as this year, 2 hurricanes storms one CAT 2 and one CAT 3 brushing the coast area on they're recurvature, but no direct hits. Maybe a tropical storm *late*, obviously too early to tell! Phew!!

OB area- I'm going to be "banging the drum" for CV systems to hit this area, only because the set up of the flow. It does along with the past record s following strong hurricanes hitting Florida. So a total of 5 storms will impact the area - three being hurricanes- two majors, Bermuda (homegrown) development (especially when negative MJO), and one tropical storm forming near the Bahamas, ala Jeanne.

New England Coast - 1 tropical storm, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion from every storm, especially CV systems that partially touch land, in the middle of the season.

Eastern Atlantic- Two TD’s form become “Fish spinners” recurve in late July.


Month by Month

June- early storm,* relatively* quiet. Many people will anticipate the first hurricane too early and try and develop things that have no physical chance! Late June, waves start picking up one may develop by the end of June, track into July.

July- active with 2 of the major hurricanes impacting the Florida/GOM area, MJO starting to drop negative by the end of the month. Homegrown development in GOM very early, affecting Texas.

August- Very active (once again) with no respite as the “Wave train” reaches a maximum, and MJO hits the bottom. NAO positive with some minor changes. OB get's all their majors!

September - Slowing down, but GOM and Florida get some action, with a sudden deja vu of last year. Though only 2 storms, they will be the strongest of the season when on approach to Florida, devastation occurs in Bahamas yet again.

October/November- Wave gets blocked by ridge dropping down, briefly but enough to significantly recurve the system. Rides up coast near miss on OB but just brushes the Delmarva peninsula at moving at a speed over 30 mph. Polar Votex sets up in Eastern Canada...winter pattern predominate and hurricane season ends in a brusque manner.

In conclusion...I’m calling for 12 Storms... 4 majors, 2 non-majors, 3 Tropical Storms, and three TD. As Clark said, nothing out of the ordinary...this is just preliminary!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34585 - Tue Nov 30 2004 09:16 PM

No in-depth analysis - that will come later. Just meeting HFs challenge and getting my numbers in ahead of Dr Gray. Right now I think that the major threat areas will be the southeast Texas coast, extreme south Florida, and the outer banks of North Carolina. I also think that a weak to moderate el nino will be in place by June and will hold down the numbers in 2005. Right now I'm thinking 8/4/1 and will take another close look at it before June 1st - along with potential analog years.
Cheers,
ED


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34593 - Tue Nov 30 2004 11:25 PM

12/7/2...

Bucking the recent trends...the 2 majors landfall however...texas and hattaras...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: LI Phil]
      #34625 - Fri Dec 03 2004 03:15 PM

Gray's forecast: 11/6/3

Here

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: LI Phil]
      #34627 - Fri Dec 03 2004 06:16 PM

I'll go with 13/7/3

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: James88]
      #34630 - Sun Dec 05 2004 07:05 PM

12/6/4

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: Keith234]
      #34635 - Mon Dec 06 2004 05:48 PM

14/7/4

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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~Floydbuster
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: Keith234]
      #34636 - Fri Dec 10 2004 06:35 AM

Quote:



ENSO-warm-phase subject to change as time progresses, I feel that if it is active in the summer time, that southern "jet" really will retreat the mean sub-tropical ridge, father west and north then normal.

QBO( Quasi-Biennial Oscillation)-peaked in August this year at -24 eastery phase, that tells you something...forecasted to go westerly for the next 12 months and once again peaking in late August and September only this time the opposite.

ATC (Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation)- in the strong phase for the decade at least, but subject to large fluctuation a la 2002. Probably produce some warmer then normal waters (noticeable) in the Caribbean and the GOM, usually suspects.

NAO-This year was positive at least as a mean. Really pumped the subby, thereafter steered just about every storm into the GOM Florida region...next year as a average I feel it will be positive, or just higher up - not necessarily in the mid-Atlantic coast region. Suggesting that the flow will favor recurviving storms.

Mean Development Region

Gulf of Mexico area/Caribbean sea- probably see an early storm pop up off the coast of South America ride it's way over the Yutcan and get into the Bay of Campeche (TD). See 1 major hurricane impacting the mouth of Mississippi area late July early August and then a tropical storm late in the end of September.

Florida/Southeast - not nearly as many storms as this year, 2 hurricanes storms one CAT 2 and one CAT 3 brushing the coast area on they're recurvature, but no direct hits. Maybe a tropical storm *late*, obviously too early to tell! Phew!!

OB area- I'm going to be "banging the drum" for CV systems to hit this area, only because the set up of the flow. It does along with the past record s following strong hurricanes hitting Florida. So a total of 5 storms will impact the area - three being hurricanes- two majors, Bermuda (homegrown) development (especially when negative MJO), and one tropical storm forming near the Bahamas, ala Jeanne.

New England Coast - 1 tropical storm, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion from every storm, especially CV systems that partially touch land, in the middle of the season.

Eastern Atlantic- Two TD’s form become “Fish spinners” recurve in late July.


Month by Month

June- early storm,* relatively* quiet. Many people will anticipate the first hurricane too early and try and develop things that have no physical chance! Late June, waves start picking up one may develop by the end of June, track into July.

July- active with 2 of the major hurricanes impacting the Florida/GOM area, MJO starting to drop negative by the end of the month. Homegrown development in GOM very early, affecting Texas.

August- Very active (once again) with no respite as the “Wave train” reaches a maximum, and MJO hits the bottom. NAO positive with some minor changes. OB get's all their majors!

September - Slowing down, but GOM and Florida get some action, with a sudden deja vu of last year. Though only 2 storms, they will be the strongest of the season when on approach to Florida, devastation occurs in Bahamas yet again.

October/November- Wave gets blocked by ridge dropping down, briefly but enough to significantly recurve the system. Rides up coast near miss on OB but just brushes the Delmarva peninsula at moving at a speed over 30 mph. Polar Votex sets up in Eastern Canada...winter pattern predominate and hurricane season ends in a brusque manner.

In conclusion...I’m calling for 12 Storms... 4 majors, 2 non-majors, 3 Tropical Storms, and three TD. As Clark said, nothing out of the ordinary...this is just preliminary!




Are you saying you expect two major hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast in July?


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Keithatschool
Unregistered




Re: initial bids, 2005 [Re: ~Floydbuster]
      #34639 - Fri Dec 10 2004 02:35 PM

think of it as a trend, not two physical hurricanes.

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