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Archives >> 2004 Storm Forum

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
2004 Season Predictions
      #15074 - Tue Jun 08 2004 10:18 AM

Here's a listing of the CHFC 2004 Predictions. If I missed anyone, or you haven't yet committed, post away:

DR. GRAY: 14/8/3
LI Phil: 14/8/3
Cycloneye: 13/8/3
Rabbit: 12/8/3
Just Me: 11/5/3
HanKFrank: 11/6/3
Ed Dunham: 15/8/3
scottsvb: 13/5/2
Steve: 13/8/3
joepub: 13/8/4
Mike C: 12/4/2
James88: 14/8/4
Rob Mann: 14/8/4
Kevin: 14/8/4
Clyde W: 15/9/4
Rad: 14/7/3
Allison: 11/5/2
John C: 13/9/3
troy2: 14/8/4

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Jun 08 2004 09:39 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3621
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15076 - Tue Jun 08 2004 11:05 AM

I'll add 12/4/2

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15077 - Tue Jun 08 2004 11:07 AM

I'll guess 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

(14/8/4)


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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15079 - Tue Jun 08 2004 11:43 AM

14/8/4 (also TWW's and Kevin's numbers)

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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15082 - Tue Jun 08 2004 12:30 PM

HMMM ... I'm Thinking.... .... 14/7/3

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15085 - Tue Jun 08 2004 12:44 PM

I'm in.... 11/5/2

Allison

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Allison


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John C
Unregistered




Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #15101 - Tue Jun 08 2004 08:32 PM

13/9/3

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: ]
      #15102 - Tue Jun 08 2004 08:42 PM

14/8/4
(two of the four majors will make landfall)

Edited by troy2 (Tue Jun 08 2004 08:44 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: troy2]
      #15105 - Tue Jun 08 2004 09:48 PM

Just a quick shout out to all posters. Our tallies almost doubled today alone...thanks for "putting up or shutting up". This is absolutely positively (or is that absitively posolutely) the best weather site on the net, and John, Mike & Ed are to be commended, plus new features too.

I will continue to keep updating the "2004 predictions" so long as you guys (and gals) continue to make them. Perhaps ED will offer a "prize" of some sort to the "winner" (aka best guesser). Maybe their own personal forum for 2005 (ED, only kidding). Looking at the numbers, unless we're all way off (doubt it), we're also very similar...and very similar to Dr. Gray. Guess there's a reason we all pay so much attention to him.

Anyhoo...thanks for the responses. Didn't know whether this post was a good idea, but obviously it was.

Cheers & Peace

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #34120 - Mon Oct 25 2004 08:55 PM

Of course, the season's not over yet, but I thought I'd take a quick peek at our early season predictions...these are the predictions made BEFORE the season officially started, NOT those changed to fit the current climatology in the MIDDLE of the season...

The first post in this thread shows how we guessed...eeech.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #34121 - Mon Oct 25 2004 09:44 PM

Actually, I've compiled the results so far but I'll hold off on posting until the season is over just in case a late November or early December storm sneaks in. Many of the forecasts were actually quite good. I've also found one or two forecasts that were made on the Main News page. The cutoff date was June 8, 2004. Any updates made after that date were not considered since the skill of a seasonal forecast only has meaning if it is made at the start of the season. A significant number of responses were made on June 8th. Everyone missed the number of major hurricanes this year, but that factor alone is not what determines a good seasonal forecast. I'll post the results around December 1st.
Cheers,
ED


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34573 - Tue Nov 30 2004 04:50 PM

Hokey Dokey...looks like we'll end the season at 15/9/6.

Ed, time to declare a "winner." I would hazard a guess to say it wasn't the poor people in Haiti or the great State of Florida.

2004: The Season From Hell [tm LI Phil]

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2004 Season Predictions [Re: LI Phil]
      #34683 - Sun Dec 26 2004 11:40 PM

Its time to tally up the results of your early season prediction and compare it against the actual season totals of 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

Here are the predictions and the total error:
DR. GRAY: 14/8/3 -5 excellent
LI Phil: 14/8/3 -5 excellent
Cycloneye: 13/8/3 -6 good
Rabbit: 12/8/3 -7 good
Just Me: 11/5/3 -12
HanKFrank: 11/6/3 -10
Ed Dunham: 15/8/3 -4 excellent
scottsvb: 13/5/2 -10
Steve: 13/8/3 -6 good
joepub1: 13/8/4 -5 excellent
Mike C: 12/4/2 -12
James88: 14/8/4 -4 excellent
Rob Mann: 14/8/4 -4 excellent
Kevin: 14/8/4 -4 excellent
Clyde W: 15/9/4 -2 THE WINNER!!!
Rad: 14/7/3 -6 good
Allison: 11/5/2 -12
John C: 13/9/3 -5 excellent
troy2: 14/8/4 -4 excellent
Dust Dutchess 12/7/2 -9
TSR 12/6/2 -10
NHC 14/7/3 -6 good

Clyde W. was the big winner - only off by two major hurricanes. He and I hit the total number of storms and he and John C. hit the total number of hurricanes. Everybody missed the number of major hurricanes this year, but everyone did accurately predict an active season.

Its time to start thinking about what next season might look like (and a few of us have already made that leap of faith (or folly) All-in-all, you did quite well!
Cheers,
ED


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