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Archives 2000s >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Late March Update
      #34998 - Sun Mar 20 2005 01:49 PM

For those of you who watch SSTs in the tropical Pacific as a lead indicator for the coming season, the last three months have been a confusing time. The weak but well-distributed warm anomalies that blanketed the Pacific during the fall, centered near the dateline, were whittled down as a cool spike cleaved into them by February. During the last month that spike has shriveled as warm patches have blossomed again in the equatorial waters. What SST profile we have as the season approaches is still tough to determine... SOI was strongly negative all February and early in March, then a solid run of positive since then. Warm conditions are fighting to hang on, with cool conditions trying to assert themselves at times. ENSO Neutral with a variable patchwork of SST anomalies in the basin, like much of last year, may be the rule. What we've generally had so far isn't all that different from 2004... not the signal most Floridians get too excited about.
Other factors at play include a generally cool Western Atlantic away from the Gulf Stream corridor and a warm Southeastern North Atlantic. This general profile would favor development in the MDR and near the East Coast.. with less than ideal conditions elsewhere in the subtropics. The overall circulation pattern in North America has been the winter version of what we had last summer.. shifted slightly eastward. There has been a general tendency to medium-amplitude, quasi-stationary circulation features for most of the winter.. that sort of thing in the summer can be bad if it's anything but a Western Atlantic trough.
The bottom line is, a change from the quasi-stationary feature and neutral Pacific SST pattern would likely be a good thing, since its presence during the core of last season put five of six through the same longitudinal recurvature belt.. right through 80-90w. Seeing La Nina try to come back, with the Western Atlantic trough most recent episodes have featured, would probably have a lot of Floridians breathing easier (though folks in North Carolina might not like it). MJO has been on the downlow since 2003, so still waiting on that factor. Without that signal showing much signature, it's probably going to be a normal distribution sort of spread on the season, without the clumps of storms.
I'll keep the numbers at 17/11/5. Will probably tone them down very slightly when I lock my season numbers in May. I'm not going to place a bullseye anywhere until then either.
HF 1838z20march

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
Posts: 315
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Late March Update [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34999 - Sun Mar 20 2005 06:55 PM

I`ve lived in central Florida for 12 years and South Florida for another 17years. In all those years nothing has compared to 2004 for me and my family. After all we went through in Brevard County and are still going through, I `ve been looking for a site with the best information for my area. Now I`ve found it with CFHC. Your detail is very professional. Its just what I`ve been looking for...Right now I`m on a culinary task force up in Charleston(theres still talk about Hugo up here) because the hotel I worked for off of A1A in Indiatlantic had severe damaged and was closed for renovation until August . I have a house 1 mile south of the hotel, two blocks in off of A1A and we all in that neighbor hood had substantial damage last year and we are still putting the pieces together. As you can see, all the information on Hurricane season 2005 that I can get is crucial. I know now that all the infro I need about my area is right here on this site. Thanks...Its a great job your doing. Anything I can do to help , please let me know.....B.C.F.

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Late March Update [Re: HanKFranK]
      #35003 - Mon Mar 21 2005 05:39 PM

Great to see you HF.Good discussion there that I agree with although your numbers may be a tad high.

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Verified CFHC User

Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
Re: Late March Update [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35004 - Mon Mar 21 2005 06:07 PM

Just keep em away from N'Awlins!!

Displaced Cajun

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