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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season
      #35019 - Wed Mar 23 2005 07:02 PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/tcgraphics3.gif

I would preferred the one with the circules that is more atractive for the people that are threatened than the single black line.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA-PR-TCgraphics.shtml

Read all the information at link above.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35020 - Wed Mar 23 2005 07:33 PM

I am glad to hear this. This graphic is looked at more often than anything. As such, they need to include as much information as possible on it --not take info away.

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cheers

Edited by Lysis (Wed Mar 23 2005 07:34 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35021 - Wed Mar 23 2005 07:36 PM

I agree with ya' Ceye..... the old chart is not great at all. Maybe they got the vote #'s mixed up

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #35030 - Wed Mar 23 2005 08:30 PM

well, this site should not have to worry about it anyway.

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cheers


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tommy
Unregistered




Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35035 - Thu Mar 24 2005 03:13 PM

im new at this but ithink we will have 12 / 7/ 5. this year with a cat 5 hurricane in the gulf

tommy


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HURAKAN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35084 - Wed Mar 30 2005 08:37 PM

I have no problem with leaving the old system, but I know that usually people just focus on the line and not the oval area around it, like what happened last year with Charley. The circles are great because shows where the cyclone could be at the given hour, it's not exactly a direct area, like the line, but cover a broad area, showing the people more directly that everyone inside the circle in in risk.

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2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FINAL FORECAST:

12 TS, 7 H, 3 M.H.

"HAVE A SAFE HURRICANE SEASON"


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: HURAKAN]
      #35092 - Thu Mar 31 2005 04:00 PM

The situation here is difficult. In the voting that NHC held for the track maps, the one being used now won convincingly. However, it seems like much of the public doesn't seem to understand the limitations with the "black line" and/or is not willing to look at the cone of probability. But yet you have some people who blame the forecasters when a storm "unexpectedly" comes up their way?

Hey, you can't keep everyone out of hot water...


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Kevin]
      #35093 - Thu Mar 31 2005 05:50 PM

It doesn't matter what information the public is given... there will always be someone who thinks they can ride out the worst of hurricanes (take my family 10 years ago for example). The NHC needs to focus more on hurricane education, more on the epic tragedy that these things cause if they want to get the message into the public’s thick skull. The day before Charley hit my neighbor Bryan recited a line now infamous amongst my family: (in regards to Charley)... "Ah, it will only be a little wind and rain." We cannot expect people to take proper precautions if they only consider these storms to be "just a little bit of wind and rain". The general public does not understand hurricanes, and they refuse to accept the fact that, to some degree, NHC forecasters don't either. I have talked to countless people absolutely bewildered as to why Charley didn’t hit Tampa. One even told me, “When the realtor sold us our house here they said this area doesn’t get hurricanes.” (!!) You can blame ignorance, you can blame over hyped media, but all of this would be solved if people merely realized the fact that if you live in coastal Florida, you will most likely see a hurricane before you die. People put so much emphasis on El Nino and active season probability but they always forget, all it takes is one. Look at 1992, a relatively calm year in the Atlantic; however a late first storm of the season changed my life, as well as thousands of lives in Homestead and Louisiana, forever. Look at the ancient inhabitants of Central America. They respected hurricanes to the point where they made deities out of them, and refused to build along the coast. They didn’t have tracking maps or GOES. I think that we are on a threshold of understanding –we are to the point where we can fairly accurately predict these things, however not without a large margin of error. Perhaps a day will come when we can pinpoint the exact location of landfall years in advance; however for now hurricanes are not a force to stand in the face and laugh at, and they are not given the respect they and the Forces behind them so rightfully deserve. Unfortunately, until this changes, we will continue to see people perish in these epic storms.

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cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Mar 31 2005 05:53 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Lysis]
      #35128 - Sun Apr 03 2005 12:19 AM

As Lysis put it, the problem isn't so much the charts that are out there as it is educating the general public.

Everyone's natural tendency is to focus on the exact projected track -- the center line -- and say *that* is where the storm is going. However, as we know, the effects of a hurricane are far-reaching. The right side of a storm is generally the most intense; even a storm moving into Tampa would've affected all of South Florida to a large degree -- as projected by them being under a hurricane warning! How to overcome this with the general public is a matter up for debate.

The media does not help in educating the public, nor do those out there who think "well, we haven't seen a hurricane in 20 years, we're pretty much immune." The media has the tendency to narrow in on the projected path, not the watch & warning area, and use whatever is necessary to pump up ratings, even if that means using a particular computer model's track that isn't near the best. Obviously, this does not hold for the entire media; it is a case of a few bad apples spoiling the bunch. However, there's no excuse for the media and public to be thinking that South & inland Central Florida are immune from a hit by a storm because the center of the storm is projected to make landfall in Tampa (yet the potential swath extends from Tallahassee to Key West)! It's even worse to blame the NHC for their shortcomings. Yes, education on the part of the NHC does need to get better; however, if private companies try to meddle with something that isn't terribly broken, it just makes things worse. I can think of one such prominent company (which I won't mention, but many of you can probably figure) which fits this bill.

This post has sort of rambled on, but the explanation for why the voting came out like it did is pretty simple: the majority of those who voted are likely in the field itself or are weather enthusiasts. They are the ones who know the most about the effects of the storms, on the whole, and feel that changing things isn't the solution. Instead, education is the answer...now it's a matter of figuring out how to go about educating the public.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: Clark]
      #35132 - Sun Apr 03 2005 03:15 AM

honestly don't think that new track maps will make a big impression on the public. i doubt it would alter emergency management response to things either. might look cool, but that's about it. on a good note, i've got a feeling that 2004 got the attention of most everybody in florida, and that the collective 'hurricane memory' is back to near common sense levels.
there's no good way to deal with the media side of things. they hype everything to death, and tend to have a narrow, locational focus (e.g., when Andrew hit, the talk was miami this, miami that.. initially. who'd ever heard of homestead?). last year with Charley, the NHC drew a line near tampa bay consistently, and the media ran with it. a less forgivable example was with Ivan. the networks, fox in particular, decided that mobile sounded boring, so they reported endlessly on the threat to new orleans. the worst hit area ended up being gulf shores to pensacola.
a hurricane doesn't have to hit a major city to do major damage, but with the formula hype+exaggeration of probabilities=ratings, the media will spend a disproportionate amount of time on such stories.
HF 0703z03april


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: NHC leaves same track maps for 2005 season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #35138 - Mon Apr 04 2005 10:20 AM

I was rereading some of my post and I just wanted to say I'm sorry for ranting up there. It is just this issue really bugs me.

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cheers


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: Lysis]
      #35269 - Thu May 05 2005 07:48 AM

I`ve been watching the action off the south west coast of Florida for the last couple of days. Seems pretty persistant and at least something to look at. Clark or anybody who nows what they`re talking about when it comes weather patterns, can you or they give us some infro on whats happening down there...Weatherchef

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35270 - Thu May 05 2005 08:08 AM

chef, that's not a tropical feature. see how the clouds are all streaked hard northeast? there's a strong jet stream overhead. there's also a stationary frontal boundary in the area... the old convection was part of that.. today a non-tropical low is deepening in the area. it's bent or bulged, streaked look is called a 'leaf' signature, which is the first phase of a mid-latitude storm. if you get a chance to look at visible shots today, watch the non-streaked, discrete low level clouds (should be cumulus and such). the presence of frontal boundaries and the fact that upper energy out of the west (if you look on wv you should see a turning in the atmosphere quite clearly.. upper low) is spawning identify this as clearly nontropical. for systems started in this manner to transition to tropical they need to occlude or be cut off over warm waters.. out of strong upper level winds.. usually for a few days. this one should move northeast and slow down near the canadian maritimes.. precludes it from ever making the grade. call it a late noreaster.
HF 1357z05may


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: HanKFranK]
      #35274 - Thu May 05 2005 12:53 PM

Thanks HF. I might like weather but you know weather, thats why I joined CFHC. Your previoust post has taught me what to look for when it comes to tropical features this early in the season and I appreciate that and I have to admit that my excitement about this hurricane season is alittle premature.....Weatherchef

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35277 - Thu May 05 2005 03:09 PM

Not tropical in nature, but that little feature of which you speak has given me the most rain I have seen since a certain little weather event last summer. 3 - 4 inches in just over an hour yesterday, and my area does not drain well. Let us be literary and call It a “temptest” if you will.

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cheers


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: Lysis]
      #35281 - Thu May 05 2005 04:17 PM

Tempest Lysis not Temptest. Temptest sounds like an enity that trys to lure us from our interest in weather.( to tell you the truth, it might be fun). The tempest just moved off my coast and with it the rain. Keep your rain gear ready I`m sure we have plenty to come in the near future......Keep dry...Weatherchef

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: South East Gulf of Mexico [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35284 - Thu May 05 2005 05:14 PM

Tempest* oops...

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cheers


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