MikeC
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wasn't organized enough last night to get to Hurricane Strength, but it remains a strong Stropical Storm this morning. It's appearance on satellite still has most of the energy to the north and east, but the ragged eye has been visible on radar.
It has jjogged a little westward this morning making Alabama the most likely point of landfall, giving points east the worst iof it. It has one more chance to burst and make it to hurricane strength, but it isn't likely. And I hope it does not.
This possibility is why the Hurricane Warnings remain up. After landfall it will move inland quickly up through Alabama aroundand turn right around Kentucky, making a rain event for those areas with some rain. Since it's a fast mover the flooding chance is reduced, but it is still there because of possible downpours.
See jason Kelley's Lastest Blog for more discussion.
Outside of there is another area in the Northeastern Caribbean, but I don't expect much out of it currently. It is still June, after all. However, as it drifts westward it might reach an area where conditionks could be favorable for it. So it's something to watch.
Event Related Links
Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop
Color Sat of
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Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Edited by CFHC (Sat Jun 11 2005 03:01 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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I don't see it making Cat I even though it is coming around on the west side. It may just be me but it sure seems to have a north mvt. the past few hours, and very slow.
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HCW
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Quote:
I don't see it making Cat I even though it is coming around on the west side. It may just be me but it sure seems to have a north mvt. the past few hours, and very slow.
Dr Lyons on just said the exact same thing . Shes a fighter But the evil shear monster is going to win this fight.
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Frank P
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watching wwl TV weather they showed a water vapor loop that showed why had very little convection on its east side... she's pulling in a plethora of dry air.... looked almost due north to me during the past couple of hours but now might be going NNW again, maybe... the dry air scenario, it if plays out would be great for the panhandle.... no way this thing can get cane status now... funny, we finally have a nice center to track after a system with that had all kinds of mutliple centers, and poorly defined centers and the dry air is now one of the main the inhibiting factors... hey, its June... good dry run for all
Edited by Frank P (Sat Jun 11 2005 02:27 PM)
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KN4LF
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#32 Published Saturday June 11, 2005 at 10:30 am EDT
Last evenings WNW cyclone center wobble/reformation/relocation became a sustained new heading of NW for T.S. . At 8:00 am EDT she is moving NW-NNW at 16 mph with sustained winds of 70 mph. Wind shear and dry air entrainment halted further strengthening during the overnight hours.
However looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we are now seeing an eye feature with one last burst of convection on the NW side. This means that minimal category 1 hurricane status may still be reached right before landfall somewhere just east of Mobile Bay near Gulf Shores, AL. this afternoon. Might as well flip a coin!
Tornadoes and waterspouts have continued to occur across the Florida Peninsula region with 's spiral feeder bands but I think the overall threat of tornadoes has lessened across the Gulf Coast for now.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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CFHC
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Moved offtopic Q&A to Weather Q&A forum. Arelene remains a tropical storm at 11, and I'm thinking it will stay one now.
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Keith234
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Looks like I'll loose the contest, with recent satellite imagery, infrared, and water vapor. Almost seems to be forming some type of depression in the , but infrared indicates convection is still presistent. Water vapor imagery indicates a large area of dry air wrapping around the system, which might increase the threat of tornado's, but surely limit the tropical characteristics. Radar, at least base reflectivity indicates at large swath of 1-2 " of rain have fell. This should become quite a prolific rain producer once on land in the deep south. This is mainly because convection can start much easier on land then water this time of year.
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Storm Cooper
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Again maybe just me but by radar 's center seems to be wobbling a little now. This may be her last shot....
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mbfly
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wobbling east or wobbling west ??
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Southern4sure
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I have family in Mobile/Grand Bay, AL. The conditions are worsening, Rain and gusts are making low lying evacuations hard. My family had to evacuate. I pray passes quickly with little or no tornadoes.
Teresa
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Storm Cooper
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To my eyes a slight wobble to the east. I think the landfall may end up closer to Pensacola than Mobile.
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Keith234
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Well as of now, they just might get lucky. The few feeder bands that are present do not have significant rotation for damaging tornado's.
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Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sat Jun 11 2005 03:45 PM)
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mbfly
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Not too bad here yet........... steady light to moderate rain with a few gusts, but not as bad as I expected it to be by now. I just talked to a friend down in Grand Bay, they're fine so far. 
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LadyStorm
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Quote:
To my eyes a slight wobble to the east. I think the landfall may end up closer to Pensacola than Mobile.
You know Florida is a hurricane magnet....:(
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Southern4sure
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I hevent talked in great detail with my folks but they said it was not weather to be out and about in. They were on the road getting to higher ground and the rain was coming down hard and light signals swinging.
Teresa
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HCW
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It's not realy that bad in Grandbay AL I just got back from driving around and this looks like a normal heavy summer time shower . 1.95 inches has fallen in Grand bay since last night. Tides are a little above normal and winds are gusting around 20 mph
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Southern4sure
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Like I said, I dont know exactly where they were I only know what Im told.
My biggest fear is not in general but the possible tornadoes.
Teresa
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B.C.Francis
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I talked with a G.M. at a large hotel in Pensacola, she said they had some heavy rains and some good winds just awhile ago......Weatherchef
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mbfly
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Actually, I'm quite amazed at how mild the weather is here. I've seen much worse coming in ahead of weaker tropical storms........... I suppose the worst is yet to come though. At the moment in West Mobile near the airport, it's not raining a drop. We haven't even had not the first rumble of thunder ! It appears to me on the sat that she is still going due north, with maybe even a tiny jog east so I think still we're ok over here on the west side of Mobile Bay. I hope 
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Southern4sure
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Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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I just got off the phone with my inlaws in the Semmes area and they said the same thing. I wonder where all the rain was my parents were in?
Teresa
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