Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Is it less like.ly to hit Florida or more?
I have company that I need to let know if they should fly or not for the weekend.
1) It is 50/50 according to the model and forecaster you ask.
2) Any Florida landfall would likely be on MONDAY, if at all unless the storm does an immediate about face. The longer it moves with a W componant, the more distance it has to make up to come back to Florida, and that translates into time. So, as far as this *Weekend* is concerned, fly if you want but don't make firm plans to stay overnight on Sunday 
IHMO
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rickin Mobile
Unregistered
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yesterday's morning post...interesting..haven't caught the update this morning from him yet...probably putting it together. anyway....he leans to a cat 3 or 4 stalling in the Gulf....waiting for a huge Canadian front coming in to whip it north or north east...
speed of the system and timing all a crap shoot. suffice to say, we will all be watching this....best time of the year, really...we all get to watch our imminent destruction days before it happens...
as he stated...
"weeping and gnashing of teeth"
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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168
URNT12 KNHC 191139
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1139Z
B. 19 DEG 54 MIN N
80 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1337 M
D. 65 KT
E. 025 DEG 08 NM
F. 134 DEG 56 KT
G. 032 DEG 011 NM
H. EXTRAP 990 MB
I. 17 C/ 1562 M
J. 19 C/ 1561 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF980 1010A ISIDORE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 0956Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.
MAX FL TEMP 23C 296/11 NM FROM CNTR.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Thanks for the thoughts.
It is so confusing when they say we are out of the picture
then we are the picture
we are out
we are in
almost like a tennis ball going back and forth
your input really helps.
With all the "expert" in put it is hard to tell what everyone means until they speak layman's English.
Thanks again.
Once this is over I will read about the troughs and the winds and the grf and so on. Next time I will know more about it so I to can know what's being said.
Sue
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Recon indicates eye wall developing... moving due west at the moment, could be just a big wobble, moving at 10mph. Should be a cane by 11:00 if not sooner...
this is a big storm in size... so where ever it goes, it's going to affect a large area... the west jog will affect all the models once again so it going to get a lot more confusing with time...
I still favor the FL panhandle but its only based on climatological history.... I don't really have a clue right now...
but ...... I'M WATCHING IT VERY CLOSELY NOW
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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To quote Yogi, "It ain't over till it's over." Until the storm actually hits somewhere. no one is in the clear. As far as this weekend, I'd say have them come on in. It does not seem likely that it will be a problem for Florida during the weekend. I say have them go for it, especially if they have restricted fare tickets. If Izzy gets strong enough and in the right position, it could be an incredibly great weekend weatherwise. Breezy, sunny and beautiful.
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Jim
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Could you provide a link where I could get the recon information. The only problem is that I don't really know how to read it. Is there instuctions also listed on how to read the info from the recon? Thanks!
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
almost like a tennis ball going back and forth
your input really helps.
With all the "expert" in put it is hard to tell what everyone means until they speak layman's English.
...well, you're welcome but I'm no expert...though I've been in or near many hurricanes in my 59 years including Camille but thankfully missing Andrew. I've come to be facinated by the weather and storms, but very respectfull about their ability to kill and cause great damage. I tend to be very cautious and advise people to educate themselves regarding the possibilities, gather all the information possible, prepare a survival kit before the stores are sold out, and occasionally look out the window like I wish more of the professionals would do and see for yourself what is happening outside. Computers are fine and fun, but they don't yet have common sense programmed in, so you have to supply that.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://atwc.org/p2.php#recon
See 's "How to decode" essay in the middle of the list. ATWC.org rules but they have too many dead links.
Steve
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Everything you need, right here...
http://www.atwc.org/p2.php#recon
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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JK - Where are you leaning right now. Everything is starting to point to a FL Panhandle system. And this could be a historic storm. We may not ever have to deal with an Izzy again.
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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My first post here. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination. I'm in Tallahassee and have a bad feeling about this one. I hope I'm wrong. Watching closely and relying on the experts here to keep me enlightened. Thanks.
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Jason,
I know you are one of the professionals that tend to look out the window and while considering the models as input, also tend to observe the facts .... so, here is the 64 dollar question:..
After considering everything you now know, what is your opinion as to who is the most at risk from this storm? Do you feel the trough will be strong enough and South enough to deflect the storm to the right, or will it simply cause a stall and encourage a CGOM landfall later as a much stronger storm?
Thanks for your considered input.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Maybe I'm reading too much but the Miami NWS office did a test huricane local statement. Something may be happening at 11:00.
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Jim
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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yep, with the sun heating things up some strengthing should occurr. Most have expected it to become a hurricane today. with all the uncertainity of the models once it crosses cuba you will see tracts from mexico to the keys i bet.
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John C
Unregistered
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New news headline coming out at 11am EDT
Just thought I would let you all know so you can save your 11am posts for that thread.
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Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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I'm still holding to my forecast for a Gulf storm east of 85 W. It appears that the Plains trough will cause a gradual north to northeast curvature in 72 hours. Isidore should move far enough north to be impacted by the S to SW steering flow that will develop over the Gulf. The question is how sharp the turn will be, or if it will continue a northward motion till landfall as per the . The intensity forecast is simple: steady strengthening to at least Cat 2 strength, with a minor disruption as the center passes over western Cuba. Major hurricane status is certainly possible. We will have to wait and see how much shearing and dry air impinge upon Isidore from the west as it makes its turn.
That's just my opinion. I think there is still too much uncertainty and everyone in the Gulf should be on the lookout. A westward track predicted by some of the models is not impossible, but I find it hard to believe. The central Gulf scenario is more believable, but my best prediction at present is the east Gulf with the Plains trough pulling the storm north or northeast.
God Bless,
Ronn
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Saw that too Rasvar. THe model camps are split. The trough looks formidable. Lots of uncertaintlt. Anxiety levels rise. Watch POOF! it turns SW and causes terror in Belize. I pray not, we are better equipped to handle it than they. Actually it's too far north for tht I believe, but expect the unexpected! Cheers!! Steve H.
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Brett
Unregistered
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Good morning everyone. I was nice to wake up and hear on the radio that South Florida is in the clear. Seriously, it was.
So why on earth does the , (which is very frighteneing in intensity) and UKmet take this system towards Tampa, or even Naples? Call me crazy, but I don't like the looks of those models at all. And I certainly don't like how strong they are predicting it to be. This could get very, very scary for all of us.
Why is So. Fla. in the clear if the models are diverging more and more?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You shouldn't say all clear until it's well past your latitude!! BTW, looks like Izzy's heading north again. Cheers!!
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