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93L improving but not upgraded tonight. 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Keith234]
      #38154 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:41 PM

You are right! And I say we will know better by thursday- If the storm passes south of Jamaica- I'd dare say I see a Charlie II ascending upon us- but I do see it impacting the Gulf coast north of where Charlie made landfall. I only wish it would remain a TS and give Texas badly needed rainfall.

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________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Fletch]
      #38155 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:41 PM

5:00 Discussion on Cindy


the stepped-frequency radiometer instrument on board a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft reported a few spot surface wind estimates around 64 kt. However...the crew of the aircraft indicated that these wind speeds were a little too high. The satellite and radar-observed structure...central pressure...and flight level winds...are most consistent with a strong tropical storm. Current intensity is set at 60 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next 12 hours as the center crosses into the marshy Delta Region of southeastern Louisiana.

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Irwin M. Fletcher


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Fletch]
      #38156 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:47 PM

5:00 on Dennis


At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Dennis was located near latitude 14.2 north... longitude 68.3 west or about 325 miles... 525 km... south-southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.

Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph ...32 km/hr ...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38157 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:57 PM

We have the Supercomputer, but it is for research work. Running any computer model takes a lot of computing time and effort, and I have work that has to get done as well (the MM5 runs partially on my machine) beyond the two model runs. We run it on 8 processors with plenty of memory, but it still takes quite a bit of time to get everything done. It could be shorter if we had more computing power, which we might get, but for now -- that's why. It comes out so late -- like the 12Z run is finishing up now -- because we wait for the GFS initial conditions to come out, which usually is at or after 12Z, to start up the model.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Heads-up [Re: Clark]
      #38158 - Tue Jul 05 2005 04:59 PM

Heads-up for everyone -- latest recon has the pressure in Cindy down 3mb from the advisory pressure, now currently at 997mb. The advisory package came out pretty early -- 4:30p -- and the recon report came 10 minutes later.

Recon should be getting us all a spot report on Dennis before too long.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Keith234]
      #38159 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:02 PM

Keith234 -- the pressure drop and convective organization are somewhat interrelated. The mechanism for the organization of bands within a cyclone remains somewhat unknown & up for debate -- new theories come around every so often, each of which improves on the previous one -- but they can help provide at least part of the heating in the atmosphere necessary to result in a pressure drop at the surface; with symmetric convection, you can see a more symmetric pressure field/pressure drop/wind field. That's usually only with very weak storms near formation, however; inner core processes drive it beyond there.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Heads-up [Re: Clark]
      #38160 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:07 PM

There is a (IMHO) very good chance that we could see the 1st Hurricane of the season by 8pmEDT tonight. Still can't get the 5pm discussion on Dennis, but I am still working on it.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Heads-up [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38161 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:11 PM

Colleen

Here's a link to the Dennis discussion

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/at200504.disc.html

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Cpt.Napalm
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Clark]
      #38162 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:11 PM

Would it be possible to spread the work out for the modeling like SETI and folding@home where people run screensavers that crunch numbers in their processors downtime? I would imagine that quite a few whether nerds such as myself would be interested in that. I have 7 GHz worth of processor sitting unused while the wife and I are at work.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Cpt.Napalm]
      #38163 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:16 PM

Not in this instance, but it's something to think about for a community run of a model. Only problem is that doing something like that requires dividing specific tasks that are independent of each other for distribution between the machines (for completion at irregular times/intervals), where modeling requires everything to occur concurrently and everything is tied together. It could be done, but all machines would have to be accessible all the time over the Internet...not always possible.

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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Cpt.Napalm]
      #38164 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:17 PM

By the models right now, It appears that Florida is in the clear. Is there any chance that the ridge can break down enough for it to hit florida? it would take a lot.

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CDN-Orlando
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Clark]
      #38166 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:19 PM

The point is that in general a lot of knowageable people believe that the FSU model performs very well... and it may be time to make a phone call or two to the right people to get FSU the money if a super comp would do the job better and faster. Time is money in business and 6 hours as opposed to 1 on the right hardware could give everyone better information.... if political situation is right with this storm, I will make a couple of calls and see what can be done... thank you for the information.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Heads-up [Re: Fletch]
      #38167 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:19 PM

Thanks, Fletch...they are talking about a ridge breaking down causing it to take a more NW track and slowing it down in the next few days. They haven't really shifted the track all that much either way.
Dennis is looking much more impressive than he was earlier.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38168 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:20 PM

How fast we forget in Florida, What does NHC say, follow the CONE, as of now all of Florida is still in the cone no you not safe until it passes you by.

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38169 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:22 PM

Haven't posted in a while on here, but it seems the main two mets on the ABC and Fox affiliate are really taking both Cindy and Dennis very seriously here in Atlanta, especially Cindy. Over the past few days there have been some areas around Atlanta that would get 3-4" of rain from one thunderstorm and there is a real fear of some signicficant flooding in carious parts of the area. I know that Atlanta is pretty far inland, but we here are watching and waiting with baited breath for Cindy and Dennis.

Also, FYI, Delta has started to cancel flights to NoLa, Panama City Beach and other areas in the forecast path of Cindy. Not sure of the other airlines yet.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38170 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:23 PM

A word of caution: the forecast track is really only good for the 1-3 day period. Florida's not in the clear until it clears where we are located. Just like it's too premature to say it WILL hit Florida, it's also too premature to say it WILL NOT hit Florida.
Rule of thumb: until it passes your lat/long, you're never in the clear.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38171 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:25 PM

True, just like Charley last year.. they were sure it was going to hit Tampa, but 2 hours before landfall, it hit 100+ miles south. I'll get my hurricane stuff all sorted, and start getting ready for it.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #38172 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:44 PM

im going to go out on a limb here and say landfall of Cindy at 75 mph. It is reminding me alot of Arlene last month, with one key difference--less shear overall and less dry air

Also, the convection is still firing pretty well and it has been intensifying all day

Dennis i expect will slowly intensify, and reach hurricane status sometime on Thursday, then begin to rapidly intensify prior to landfall in Cuba
the rotation is currently very well defined and it appears to be consolidating the convection

another reason that i think Cindy will reach hurricane intensity before landfall-- possible northern eyewall forming


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38173 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:47 PM

And Colleen, sometimes even that is not true.. case in point... Elena in 85, approached the MS coast, Hurricane warnings posted, turn the hard turn right, warnings discontinued, warning up in FL... stopped, stayed off the Fl coast a while, MS forgot about her.... then she turned around and came back for a second attempt, hurricane warnings reposted...... so you never know with these things.... sometimes science does a good job in forecasting and other times not so great...

wondering why we at least don't have a hurricane watch with a 70 mph storm barreling down our necks this evening...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Question concerning the time it takes to process FSU model [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38174 - Tue Jul 05 2005 05:48 PM

Quote:

A word of caution: the forecast track is really only good for the 1-3 day period. Florida's not in the clear until it clears where we are located. Just like it's too premature to say it WILL hit Florida, it's also too premature to say it WILL NOT hit Florida.
Rule of thumb: until it passes your lat/long, you're never in the clear.




Great advice Colleen. Just don't forget Ivan from '04...he came back and got Texas.


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