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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38201 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:38 PM

well i just watched a video from our local news channel 10 tampa bay...and he is saying that it is going to where cindy is right now.....here is the link to the video


http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15664

any thoughts on this???

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38202 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:38 PM

or Charley

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38203 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:43 PM

Still way too early to tell where Dennis is going, unfortunately. As we learned last year, the cone of error is there for a reason. If you believe (outright) some of the progs on some of these storms, Jeanne would've gone out to sea and Ivan would've turned right well before it did.

We'll know more once Cindy has made landfall. Until then, any intensity or track forecast beyond the error cone is pure speculation.

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #38204 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:45 PM

well thank you very for that information Clark...unfortunately due to this forecast i believe that there are going to be alot of people who are gonna be like its not gonna hit us , its not gonna hit us...and well they are gonna be scrambling to get to safety....im not that way...i wanna know whats goin on...and keep a look out...:) well ty again...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38207 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:50 PM

Wow, that is some real wishcasting. I agree with you that IF Dennis approachs our area, people are going to be caught off guard. I haven't seen any other TV station say that..they all say we need to pay close attention because YOU DON'T FOCUS ON THE BLACK LINE!
Not mad at you...just people saying things like that really aggravate me. Could you guess?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38208 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:53 PM

oh yea colleen i can completely agree with you...there were so many people i know personally that were like im gonna wait it out and after that last hurricane we had Jeanne i believe...he siad hell never ride one out again...but i think its better to be in the mind frame that it is going to hit us instead of saying oh its gonna pass us by... no worries i know ur not mad

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ts/hur cindy, dennis [Re: Ricreig]
      #38209 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:54 PM

i got most of the cindy details fairly close. my hit point a couple days ago was around vermillion bay.. looks like it'll be grand isle instead. what is that, like.. 75 miles? beat the hurricane center at least. the pressure keeps dropping in spurts, so i might get the hurricane call right in the end. it'd be a double victory, cause my first hurricane guess date this summer was july 6th. whether it gets operationally upgraded or not, cindy will probably be set as a hurricane in post analysis, 'cause it's about as close as they come. lotsa rain on the way along the track and for points east. there's been a lot of rain on the coastal plain and piedmont areas from the carolinas south over recent weeks, but i don't think there will be more than widespread minor to moderate flooding, with the isolated variety severe weather as cindy moves inland and weakens.
i'm already very frightened by Dennis. not because it's going to be a major hurricane and likely to hit the central gulf coast, but because i've already heard it called Dennis the menace, and know we have a whole week to look forward to of every news outlet in existance calling it that to forced laughter. i think the hurricane center has done well with it since classification (late late typical late), as the intensity is well below what i'd have guessed from satelite. remind self that large envelope cyclones spin up slowly, have broad inner cores.. and our boy Dennis moving quickly at that. it should spin up at a Charley-esque rate, notwithstanding hitting jamaica or something it ought to be getting to major hurricane status closer to cuba. once it knocks poor fidel on his can, it's nw up to the central gulf coast. the 'cone' everybody talks about will end up being cedar key to houston.. i reckon. won't get to the coast until the 10th to 13th, but most likely area is the ms/al area where the official has it pointed, because all manner of forecast models like the idea. Dennis hasn't done anything aside from exactly what was expected in it's short life.. until it starts defying those models we won't have much idea what else is at work. Dennis will probably hit the u.s. as a hurricane. calling a major hurricane hit from this far out i'm squeamish about, because strong hurricanes find lots of unique ways to weaken as they approach land.. not always but often enough to merit attention. there's also the nagging thought in mind of allen and gilbert.. biguns that were also running under large ridges, that couldn't seem to find cause to recurve. climatology smacks a lot of july caribbean hurricanes into belize, the yucatan.. etc. if Dennis starts sidestepping left that'll become a forecast contingency.
right now my strongest ideas are mainstream, though. hurricane, likely major at some point, possibly such at u.s. landfall. most likely area to get hit.. northern/central gulf coast. timeframe of u.s. impact centered around july 11th/12th. interesting of note is the GFS tendency to move the storm wnw after landfall and stall it over the plains, cut off from a poleward escape. that would be a horrific flood scenario... way out beyond reasonable prediction, but not something i'm very excited to notice.
better shut up before i write a book. busy times in july are at hand.
HF 0153z06july


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38210 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:55 PM

I understand completely. It's just that we really don't know where it is going right now, and while the projected path is the NHC's best guess as of right now, any deviation now or down the road is going to result in a deviation in the landfall point. We'll have a better idea of where it is headed 3 days before landfall -- before hurricane advisories go up -- and that is when actions should be taken to start to get out, think about evacuating, and so on. Now is the time, though, to review those plans -- as it is for any hurricane season and with any storm -- and to be thinking about getting some supplies you may have forgotten earlier in the year to top off the hurricane supply collection...before the rush comes.

With weather forecasts and, for many years, just a projected path, we've grown used to the weather as a deterministic projection. We much prefer hearing that the high will be in the low 90s instead of hearing that it has a 50% chance of being in the low 90s, a 30% chance of being in the mid-upper 90s, and a 20% chance of being in the upper 80s. Slowly the change is being made to more of the latter, and that's inherently what hurricane track forecasting is (and should be): probabilities of where the storm is going to go (and the related probabilities of the storm reaching a particular intensity). It tells you more than an actual point or number, though doesn't give the comfort of having an actual number. The media and many others, though, need actual numbers, so they'll never go away...it's just a matter of effectively blending the two and knowing what to do with them, whether you are in the field or, like many here, just interested in hurricanes.

These things are amazing to watch, even awe-striking sometimes. Unfortunately, it is in that itself where the reasoning why we can't pin everything down lies; we just can't predict nature as well as we might want to be able to do.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Dennis [Re: Clark]
      #38211 - Tue Jul 05 2005 08:55 PM

Is it me or does Dennis appear to be trying reform his LLC? Also looks like it's slowed down a bit. I don't like that. BTW...I got this from the IR Floater loop.
Probably wrong...but that's what my eyes are seeing.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38212 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:00 PM

Might've slowed a touch, but not anything drastically. The convection firing near the center gives the impression of the LLC maybe reforming, but I think it's just an artifact of the new convection and how it is moving around the center instead of any substantial reforming of the center. Any slowing of the circulation's forward speed would be bad news...this puppy has all of the potential in the world if that were to happen. As-is, I don't see any reason why to disagree with HF's intensity prognostication right now.

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38213 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:02 PM

Quote:

well i just watched a video from our local news channel 10 tampa bay...and he is saying that it is going to where cindy is right now.....here is the link to the video


http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=15664

any thoughts on this???




I can't tell you how unfortunate I feel to see a TV meteorologist do this. This is the exact kind of presentation that misleads people. Show the cone of error, then basically discredit it. This is where the choice is made to decide if you will be the realistic forecaster that emphasizes the uncertainty, or roll the Vegas Dice and luck out to be the most accurate forecaster in town. This is a grat way to mislead the public and boost complacancy.
Okay, I'm preeching, sorry. You guys understand the forecast uncertainties this far out and the changes that occur in the models. Just thinking of the others that trust the statements of guys like this, but don't know enough about the posibilities. Frankly, a shot is being called way too early and subject to change and I think it is more harmful than helpful.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Dennis [Re: dem05]
      #38214 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:16 PM

With pressure at 992 and reported wind gusts at 150ft of 99 mph from an oil rig, I've decide to board up the house.... not going to take any chances with broken windows... I'm pretty sure someone is going to feel Cat 1 conditions, so if its happens to be me, then I'm prepared, Cindy is a small compact storm so unless you are near the center I don't think the wind should be any big deal, I expect the tide to be at least 5 foot above normal tomorrow, so that shouldn't cause to many problems.... you drive along the MS coast tonight and its business as usual.... you'd never think a strong TS or even weak Cat 1 is about to impact the area.... amazing how complacent everyone is for these weak systems along the MS coast... very few people have prepared for this storm....
but I'm prepared as I can be, sipping on a little crown awaiting an early morning visit from Ms Cindy....


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Dennis [Re: Frank P]
      #38215 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:22 PM

Have one for me as I possibly await "dennis" Better safe than sorry as you can just take the boards down. Best wishes & Good night.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Where Dennis is Going? [Re: dem05]
      #38216 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:23 PM

There is no forecaster who can accurately predict where Dennis is going beyond 72 hours. Remember Cindy's original forecast at 1st becoming a depression. She had a date with TX-LA coast. There are variables in the global models that cannot be predicted in the here and now; the main variable during this forecast period is the upper ridge over the SE USA and it's strength as Dennis approaches Cuba. If you were to believe the GFS yesterday, out one week, Dennis looks to have a date with TX-LA; but if there is any weakening of the upper ridge, then Dennis will turn more north and east sooner, and right now, we don't know. Tropical systems being warm core wreak havoc on the upper air and induce dynamics that can't be foreseen too far in advance. I don't see anything to impede Dennis becoming a hurricane with the exception of how Dennis interacts with the land masses in it's circulation envelope, and it remains to be seen whether it will cross Cuba or not. With every model run, things change. The Tampa meteorologist or weather caster or whatever he is, is premature at best at this time.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Dennis [Re: dem05]
      #38217 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:24 PM

thats what i was saying. i dont think these local media should show there paths early like that. channel 9 news in orlando shows Dennis as a 1 and is really misleading people.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Dennis [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #38218 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:26 PM

Thanks Coop.... this next one's for you.... drink that is... oh, and maybe Dennis too.... I certainly don't want it... I've had my fill of storms for the year....

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Frank P]
      #38219 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:28 PM

Frank,
I recall you saying about 2 years ago that you would ride out a Cat 1 without boarding up! LOL I think it is a good thing that you are adding a couple extra boards tonight. You never know. Good luck and hopefully all of you will get a day off work tomorrow!

Edited by Justin in Miami (Tue Jul 05 2005 09:29 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Dennis [Re: Frank P]
      #38220 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:30 PM

Hey Frank, good luck there. I too am concerned that this one may take some of the area by Surprise. You still need to prepare for a tropical storm, especially a strong one, just perhaps not as elaborate as a hurricane. There is no harm in erring on the side of caution on this one.

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Keeneye
Unregistered




Report on Cindy from N.O. [Re: berrywr]
      #38221 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:30 PM

Hello,

I am posting from Uptown New Orleans and thought I would give a report on our conditions. In the last hour winds have picked up, reported at 26 sustained ENE with gusts to 40....things have dropped off this last hour or so...gradually increasing rain and wind after a steady drizzle and light breeze for most of the day. I just read Bastardi's latest comment and he thinks this is already a hurricane....rigs are reporting hurricane conditions in the gulf. This will pass us just to the east and then hit MIss-Ala Coast quite possibly as a Cat 1.

Will report later if I can.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Dennis [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #38223 - Tue Jul 05 2005 09:36 PM

Yeah, I remember that Justin... but boy, we have not had any strong southerly winds in a long time, and my all the little oak limbs will just pound the stew out of my front windows if I get any winds above 50 mph out of the south.. much easier to put up plywood than replace 3X6 windows, and I have 6 of em.... but thanks for reminding me of my foolishness..... hehe..

Thanks Mike, you never know with these things and after what happened to Punta Gorta last year I'll never take any more chances.... I'm as ready as I can be... but know this, nothing (plywood) is coming down until we know where Dennis ends up... that also factored in the decision


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