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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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KN4LF
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #38091 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:14 PM

Cindy continues to suffer from dry air entrainment on her west side with most of the heavy weather on her east side. A landfall at Louisiana's Mississippi River Delta sometime tomorrow morning as a strong tropical storm is probable but most of the bad weather will be felt in Alabama and the NW panhandle of Florida much like with Arlene.

As of 11:00 AM EDT we have T.S. Dennis and this is the earliest we have ever seen a "D" named tropical cyclone and right now we are on pace to see the busiest Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone season ever. He is on a WNW course at approximately 19 mph and should continue on the general course and speed for the next several days, as he moves around the southern and western periphery of the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge. Upstream wind shear is low and ocean water temperature warm so Dennis should become a hurricane within 48 hours and "possibly" a major hurricane within 72-96 hours.

Where will Dennis go? Only God knows right now for sure but looking at all forecast models only one hints at a weakness in the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge that would allow Dennis to strike South Florida from the SE and then recurve up the Eastern Seaboard. Right now the NHC TPC forecast track across western Cuba into the SE Gulf Of Mexico looks good. This track would only impact the southern Florida Keys depending on it's strength but would then endanger the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Pensacola.

Bottom line for the Florida peninsula is that we look safe at the moment but a small shift to the right would endanger all of the South Florida region. Stay tuned.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38092 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:16 PM

Latest Model runs have it going more west, as of now, H did shift east but also drop some south.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Tropical Storm Dennis Forms in Caribbean, Cindy in Gulf [Re: ]
      #38093 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:18 PM

All I know about models showing ridges moving/breaking down is this: last year, the models didn't pick up on the high closing off the open door for Frances/Jeanne to skirt the coast of the East Coast until about 48 hours before it happened.
I saw the door slamming shut way before they did.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Dennis [Re: Old Sailor]
      #38094 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:20 PM

If most of the models stay the same in the next 3-4 days,I would be very surprised.I think we have to wait until Thursday to see about South Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered




Re: sats [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #38095 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:32 PM

Speaking of getting kits and things ready, this morning I bought a power inverter at Lowe's for $29.99. You hook it up to your car battery, and it puts out 400 (peak 800) watts of AC power. It has two outlets, but I plan to use an extension cord connected to a power strip, etc. They had a larger model, 750 watts for $59.00. My power was off for a week with Frances, and it would have been nice to be able to power a box fan, some decent lights, normal size tv, possibly computer, etc. It is necessary to restart the car every few hours or so while using it near full capacity, to keep the battery charged. The way I look at it, that's better than keeping a generator running all the time. I'm sure I'll want to go out and sit in the a/c in the car every once in a while, anyway (did that a lot after Frances.) The unit has a built-in auto shutoff if the battery voltage drops too low, and it also alterts you when it is getting close to that level. The brand is Vector. Home Depot has the same thing sold under their Husky brand, though it is more expensive ($45) and they were out of stock here in Gvl when I called. Obviously it won't power your refrigerator and central a/c, but having lived a week without power, I think it will be more than a few steps up from relying on batteries. I do have a battery powered tv, battery powered 'lanterns', boom box/radio, candles, etc. - all of which are a lot better than no tv, no radio, no lights, etc. Power inverters can be mail ordered, of course, if you want one and can't find one locally. Lowes.com ships. To be on the safe side, your car should have a good/strong battery (not on the verge of wearing out) and a reliable alternator (shouldn't be a problem for most people.)

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy ship observation [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38096 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:33 PM

I'm thinking that boat needs to recalibrate.... there's no way it's 60 kts.... I mean, maybe, but, it seems very unrealistic to me.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Gainesville, FL]
      #38097 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:35 PM

Ship report at 1700 hours of 60 knot winds 40 miles NE of center. She could make cane status after all.

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: jth]
      #38098 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:37 PM

I guess we'll see at 1... but looking at the other nearby estimates, I can't believe it completely.... Granted, it's the closest, but still...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38099 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:41 PM

Just peeking down to earlier wind speed estimates, there was another ship that was reporting 40Kt's when that ship was reporting 49.9Kt's 10 miles away. so... it's possible the ship is off some, but I'm willing to believe that there are wind speeds of 50Kt's in the storm, though, in a nasty rain band, it's possible that the sustained winds are around 60kt's...

But I agree, it's a dubiously high reading considering the other reports.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: jth]
      #38100 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:48 PM

I think CIndy has an outside shot at getting to Cat 1, or at least affected areas on the east side could get hurricane force gusts... I am in the middle of my storm shutter project with about 6 of 15 windows complete... boy this sucks... I really hate the thought of this thing getting Cat 1 status as that is my criteria for putting up plywood.... on the other 9.... decisions decisions.... as for Dennis, like all the other storms the models with change with each passing run... I think its a little premature right now to predict where it will go 5 days out... two days ago most felt CIndy was a TX/west LA event... how things do change with these systems... and we all know it... so batten down the hatches and enjoy the ride, cause it gonna kick butt this year... two of the three storms hit on the n gulf coast... gee, is this a trend or what, now we certainly don't want 3 for 4, unless you are playing baseball... I'll provide some updates from the beach in Biloxi if Cindy has anything to offer tomorrow... now I'm going to have to go open up that new bottle of crown my friend gave me for my birthday.. cheers to my good pal Steve in NO.... I know he's just lovin it today too

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38101 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:49 PM

2 PM out on Dennis. Now moving WNW at 20!

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Dennis [Re: Fletch]
      #38102 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:53 PM

Does faster motion equal slower development? Seems like it's spending more energy translating, rather than strengthening? I would also think passing over land faster would reduce the amount of weakening...

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Frank P]
      #38103 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:56 PM

2pm out on Cindy (Getting stronger)

"A ship just northeast of the center reported winds near 70 mph...but quality control analysis indicates that these winds are likely a little too high. Nevertheless...Cindy appears to have strengthened a little more and maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph...with higher gusts. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is nearing Cindy and should give more definitive intensity information. Some additional increase in strength is possible before landfall."

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Fletch]
      #38104 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM

I was looking at the Visibles on Cindy...maybe it's me but it looks as though some of those bands are trying to wrap around what (I think) is the LLC. I'm gonna stick my neck out here and say it will be a Cat 1 at landfall.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Fletch]
      #38105 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM

Ok, how did you get that so quickly? It's still not on the NHC page...

Now it is, but it wasn't when that last post was made!

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill

Edited by Terra (Tue Jul 05 2005 02:00 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Fletch]
      #38106 - Tue Jul 05 2005 01:59 PM

Cyndy seems to be slowing and sliding a little west per the storm floater visual loop. Radar doesn't show much movement either.

--------------------
doug


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38107 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:01 PM

Quote:

Ok, how did you get that so quickly? It's still not on the NHC page...

Now it is, but it wasn't when that last post was made!




http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/at200503.public.html

Over the last few years, they have been the quickest to post. Sometimes by as much as 10-15 minutes.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: sats [Re: Gainesville, FL]
      #38108 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:07 PM

Just wanted to make sure you had this knowledge and info before hookin stuff up to generators and inverters:::::: (Generator) http://www.lowes.com/lowes/lkn?action=howTo&p=BuyGuide/SelectGenerator.html&rn=RightNavFiles/rightNavHowTo#term

(Inverter) http://www.q3wholesale.com/Selection-guide-Power-inverters.htm

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Carl
Unregistered




Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Fletch]
      #38109 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:10 PM

A ship located at 27.1 and 90.2 just reported a pressure of 29.47 inches...looks lke Cindy continues to intensify. Those of us in SE LA may be in for a little more weather than we thought a few hours ago.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Cindy Winds should go way up at intermediate adv. [Re: Terra]
      #38110 - Tue Jul 05 2005 02:12 PM

I think that Colleen would be pretty close to perfect with her guess on Cindy being a Cat I at landfall. Gulf is warm and looks like perfect conditions for her to get better organized. A lot can happen in the heating of the day...only time will tell.

Dennis, in my opinion, a little too close for comfort. Guess it is time to just make sure everything is ready just in case. I am afraid he will take his time to make sure he is good and strong before he makes landfall. Hate to say it but I would much rather him stay on a more northernly path rather than having Central Florida back in the "cone" again.

Lysis, wanna have a storm party this year? I will bring my video camera too!?!?!


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