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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #38955 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:42 PM

which is???

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Skeetobite's Maps [Re: mom2als]
      #38956 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:43 PM

Quote:

Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that!




Thanks. Sorry about the errors, had a small problem with the days of the week. This has been fixed.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38957 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

Quote:


WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.




Nah, they have a cup of water sitting outside of their studio. The put a thermometer in it once a day


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38958 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.
I'm not yet ready to say that the track won't shift back towards the left, however, when the models begin to trend to a certain place over a number of days, it's a pretty good indication. Even if it just HUGS the western peninsula of Florida, those temperatures are going to be a problem. And if it does go over the more moutainous areas of Cuba, it may have time to regroup and explode IF it hits those temperatures.
Notice there's a lot of IFS in there.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Clarks blog [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #38959 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:47 PM

Thanx for your insight on your blog...very informative.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38960 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:48 PM

Quote:

which is???


That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow Dennis to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Clark [Re: Clark]
      #38961 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:49 PM

So what you are saying is the track may shift a little east but the general NNW motion should continue through landfall. So the exact location of landfall really depends on A) when the NNW turn occurs and B) the exact angle. Ft Walton/Destin still my spot.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38962 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:50 PM

Hey Colleen, better get ready there. 12Z CMC has center going right over Tampa.

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: tpratch]
      #38963 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:50 PM

Looks like our county will be spared......for the time being.......Weatherchef

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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Unregistered User]
      #38964 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:52 PM

I've been watching the MM5 12Z run being worked on at FSU, and I got to say it's interesting comparing it to the 0Z run from earlier in the day. Being a mathematician, I'm a little disturbed at how so far the plot is concave up versus concave down through 12hrs. In other words, the 0Z run had it 12hrs into southern Cuba by means of an "upside down" bowl curve, whereas the newest run is going upwards into Cuba.

Granted, storms don't have to follow patterns of nice smooth continuous curves...but the concave down pattern from earlier made me think of the bermuda high acting to "shunt" the storm downward and keep it depressed as it moved west. If models start seeing upward concavity, I begin to imagine the high weakening and not preventing the poleward movement as much as it has in the past.

Of course, since my degree is in math, I'm just throwing darts in the wind....a hurricane strength wind, mind you. If we all don't get wiped out by the storm, I'm going to have some great test questions for my Calculus students this fall, though....

Edited by Londovir (Thu Jul 07 2005 12:56 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38965 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:55 PM

Steve don't say such a thing!!!!!!!!

I have things I want to do this weekend not things I would "have" to do!!!!

Colleen - hurricane party? j/k


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bob895
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38966 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:55 PM

With people saying that the gulf temperatures are the highest in 20 years this worries me because we could see one hell of a storm....maybe even cat 5??

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Big Daddy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38967 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:56 PM

Quote:

WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.




Gulf temps reported by all Tampa TV stations are intended for the recreational audience, not for mariners. At least one reports the temp as measured at Clearwater Beach.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38968 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:58 PM

Thanks, Steve.... I needed to hear that like I needed another hole in my head. This has been an insane day. I have the stomach flu, I have relatives visiting London who we are waiting to hear from, my sister-in-law has just been put into the hospital, 34 weeks pregnant with a possibility of delivery in 24 hours because of severely high blood pressure, and now I might be dealing with a large hurricane coming over my head.
At least it's only ONE model doing it...I take a little comfort in that.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38969 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:58 PM

what are you talking about? Link please..

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38970 - Thu Jul 07 2005 12:59 PM

sorry to hear about that colleen i hope all is well.....and i know what u mean like we need to be getting prepared...lol....well hope u get to feeling better...and lastnight watching the news one meteorologist said that the ETAH...i think.not for sure...had it going straight up florida....as a cat 4.....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
CMC model [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #38971 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:03 PM

They've actually been sticking with that for a couple of days now...wasn't it Donna that did a similiar path?

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: FlaMommy]
      #38972 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:04 PM

Colleen - check your pm in a minute.

I pulled up that FSU link someone had posted and every one of the maps show landfall between Panama City and Tampa. There was only one that showed a landfall West of NO.

darn, darn, darn.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38973 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:04 PM

You watch the numbers:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/071431.shtml

They have been going up everyday. Cocoa Beach was a 6% yesterday,
although 11% isn't high, 5% a day can make a difference.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #38974 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:06 PM

again, that is because the storm is getting closer to you. Not that the track has hcanged to bring it closer. I bet you will find that NO has increased it's % as well.

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