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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Pensacola101
Unregistered




Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #38995 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:35 PM

Then again, you have people like me in Pensacola, hoping that he is right.

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: trinibaje]
      #38996 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:36 PM

I would be amazed if you are correct, and if you are, well then we are going to be having some issues. However, I think like many others this may skirt the west coast of Florida. Frankly the CMC 12Z Model is not that far off, it even correctly initializes the little sliver of ridge that is still left. It may be a little too far east, but hey I am not a weather man.

As far as wishcasting, I do not know anyone who has gone through Hurricanes who want to wish one in their area. True the event is an adreneline rush, but the clean up is a drag and it goes on and on and on.. Still trying to get my life back together from last years mess.. It sucks.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: Pensacola101]
      #38997 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:36 PM

I roger that.....Weatherchef

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 185
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Colleen A.]
      #38998 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:37 PM

Quote:

BayNews9 ALSO has the Gulf temps at 89-90 degrees. I would assume that if I checked the other news stations, they would be in line with those numbers. When I was in Clearwater in June, it was 86.
Maybe they are taking them closer to the coast; I don't know. I seriously do not think they are making it up for visitors, but I don't feel like squabbling over it, either.




I think what they are reporting are the "surf" temps which are usually warmer than water off the coast. NWS has water temps at Clearwater Beach at 89.6deg., but I don't think that's indicative of what the GOM is as a whole.

Remember too, that more than the surface temp, how deep the warm water is plays a bigger role.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Thu Jul 07 2005 01:40 PM)


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Orlando, FL
Unregistered




Re: Gulf Temps [Re: AgentB]
      #38999 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:41 PM

Hey guys, what's another storm? We can take it... of course I am being totally sarcastic, and I really hope that this trend doesn't continue. Even if it just skirts the west coast, Central Florida will on the bad side of the storm, unless it made landfall on the east coast. That's not looking so likely, and the CMC model protrays a big problem for the peninsula of Florida.

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
2 pm advisory? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39000 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 PM

is it out yet?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
ULL? [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39003 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:45 PM

Is anyone watching the water vapor loops? I am trying to get a handle on the strength of the high, and I noticed a spin developing at about 26N 66W. What's going on out there? A ULL?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

--------------------
South Florida


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39004 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:47 PM

Bob for that to happen Dennis cannot deviate anymore just a straight line and add another 15' to N track.In the last six hrs Dennis has been moving 41'N of W for your Idea to come to fruitation you need the other 15'N.I have not seen Dennis move in a straight line yet.I think the Terrain is having an effect on Dennis right now.If you give it another 12-16hrs I think a more WNW will come about again.The models shifting E good for me thats for sure.Once Dennis crosses Cuba then I will take models more seriously.
I have seen a few of storms thus far from Camille to Georges.Give it another 24hrs.Your thoghts could happen seen stranger things happen before but find it unlikily at the time being.
The NHC for the most part has been on track.If you watched Cindy the other night at 2:00AM she was heading for Lake Pontchatrain(dueN) then went due E for about 2-3hrs then NW the rest of the way.Guess what still landed within the 60NM of the NHC forcast.They consider that a good forcast.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39005 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:48 PM

This is just the first round and this is a 15 round fight. We might be looking like Jake Lamatta did in the "Raging Bull" when its all over , but I can asure you we`ll still be standing........Weatherchef

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ROB H
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Clearwater, FL. 28.00N 82.70W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: stormchazer]
      #39006 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:49 PM

I think Clarks latest track analysis is dead on, and most of the models are backing him up. This storm does not have to make a direct hit on the peninsula to cause severe damage. A run up parallel to the west coast just offshore is not a pretty scenario

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
there is not a good scenario [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39007 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:49 PM

for anyone who gets hit by Dennis....

to skirt up the west side of Florida would definitely be a bozo nono for the insurance companies...

seems to be closely following the current path, however....I think it's a little premature to think Tampa is gonna get hit..but certainly it's a possiblity.....looking like Appalachicola or so to me, at least right now....

Wonder why Joe Bastardi is thinking Mississippi...and also wonder what his thoughts tomorrow will be...


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: RECON [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39008 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:51 PM

FYI - RECON is currently reporting that the pressure is down to 962 mb.

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KN4LF
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: MikeC]
      #39009 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

#51 Published Thursday July 07, 2005 at 10:45 am EDT

At 11:00 am EDT Hurricane Dennis has a sustained wind of 105 mph, a CAT 2 cyclone. It's at position 18.0 N 75.6 W with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.59". Most importantly and ominously for the South Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, the current heading is now NW or 315 degrees. This NW jog is in response to my forecast of a weaker Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida. It was easily seen too as the maximum barometric pressure here in Plant City on west central peninsula fell from a maximum of 30.14" on Tuesday to a maximum of 30.03" on Wednesday. With more forecast models jumping on the band wagon of an eastward track shift the NHC TPC has adjusted the official track to the east, with a landfall back to near Pensacola Sunday evening 07/10/05.

As I said above the new NW heading is ominous for the South Florida and the Florida Keys and the NHC TPC has now issued a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and a tropical storm watch for the southern peninsula. On the current forecast track Key West would experience hurricane conditions on Saturday with gale force conditions, storm surge, heavy rainfall and tornadoes moving up the west coast to the Tampa Bay area.

Looking at the strength of Dennis, as already mentioned above he is a CAT 2 now and after skirting Jamaica to the north he should reach CAT 3 status before crossing western Cuba, though circulation interaction with Cuba could hold Dennis to a strong CAT 2 cyclone. After he emerges into the SE Gulf Of Mexico west of Key West he should reach CAT 3-4 strength enroute the NW Panhandle. However some weakening is possible as he approaches the coast.

Looking at the synoptic situation more closely, the Bermuda high pressure ridge over the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and Florida peninsula weakened and retreated eastward due to the passing of T.S. Cindy. The slower the mid level vestiges of Cindy move northeastward the slower the high pressure ridge rebuilds and shifts westward. We also have several mid level shortwave troughs over the SW and southern U.S. heading eastward, that "COULD" weaken and shift the high pressure ridge eastward allowing Dennis to track over or along the west coast of Florida or it could re-strengthen and shift back to the west pushing Dennis back westward for a landfall in AL or MS. It's all a matter of timing.

An experienced Meteorologist does not change his hurricane landfall prediction on every whim of the forecast models, My mantra once again is live by the model die by the model. So right now I see no reason to change my landfall forecast from yesterday, a window between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on early Monday morning as a CAT 3-4.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: ULL? [Re: Brett]
      #39010 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

Looks like one tring to develop got some divergent winds in the area.Not exactly sure what impact that would have if it should develop being behind Dennis.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: javlin]
      #39011 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:52 PM

If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out.Right now they are thinking western Cuba.So we will not have to wait long to see if I am on the right track.Cuba plays a major role in my thinking.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: OK,I am going to lay it on the line. [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39012 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:54 PM

Quote:

Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef




It isn't out of the cone, therefore it remains a possibility, though it may be unlikely at this time.


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #39013 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:54 PM

Wasn't Joe Bastardi the one who maintained that Frances and Jeanne were going to curve up to hit the Carolinas?

I don't like this at all. Tallahassee hasn't seen a storm like this in...what, 20 years?


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: RECON [Re: Kal]
      #39015 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:56 PM

From the 2pm advisory: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Dennis IS JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ... 27.03N 82.06W
Major flooding.... even if it just skirts. [Re: Orlando, FL]
      #39016 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:58 PM

Whether your educated or not-so-educated guess goes east or more west, it looks like we may have the potential for severe flooding with or without a direct hit.

Don't know if anyone has been paying attention, but record rains have had many areas above flood stage for months now. Extremely unusually high tables for June & early July. In Arcadia, they have had what they generally call "100 year flood" conditions. I know it is similar in other areas.

Even without storm surge, inland flooding from feeder bands could be severe. Sandbags might be appropriate in some areas.

See:
USGS Water Level Data - Florida

-Bev


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39017 - Thu Jul 07 2005 01:59 PM

Just 5 mph short of a cat 3. Seems to be moving more NW than WNW - that would make it more of a FL panhandle event.

Hope we are all wrong!!


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