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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: MoparMitch]
      #39018 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:01 PM

Quote:

Just 5 mph short of a cat 3. Seems to be moving more NW than WNW - that would make it more of a FL panhandle event.

Hope we are all wrong!!




not seems to be.. he is moving NW

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Get Ready FL *just in case* [Re: Kal]
      #39019 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:01 PM

I think Ed Dunham comments on getting ready just in case are warranted. I had a supsicion last night about all this "model consensus" and now I look at the computer this late morning and see how much has changed. I am sure it will change again too! I feel like we (south FL, except Keys) will just make it out of harms way by a narrow margin. Too close for comfort in my book.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Major flooding.... even if it just skirts. [Re: Bev]
      #39020 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:05 PM

Bev, I agree. Regardless, we will be getting rain, we don't need. This has been a rainy season more so than I can recall in the past and adding tropical rains on top of it- aren't going to help matters.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: MoparMitch]
      #39021 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:05 PM

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NORTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND
MOVE NEAR CABO CRUZ IN* SOUTHEASTERN* CUBA TONIGHT.

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Still a GOM Event [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39022 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:09 PM

No doubt we are going to get wind and rain from this- but I do not see a direct Southeast coast impact from Dennis. However- it's the west coast that better start taking inventory of their resources...NOW.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Dennis and Cuba [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #39023 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 PM

If Dennis goes over central or eastern Cuba,and slows down,everyone in South Florida will be holding there breath.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Get Ready FL *just in case* [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #39024 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 PM

I agree with you Justin, that S.FL. will just barely make it except the Keys. However, this is closer than expected just a day or two ago. Like Thomas said, my maximum pressure for the week was actually reached on Monday and it has slipped all week long since. The high started retreating 2 days ago.
Mon. max. 30.18, Tues. max. 30.17, Wed. max. 30.09, Thur. max. 30.05.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Still a GOM Event [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #39025 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM

Agreem Joe, the west coast (Keys and SW Florida first) need to get ready for this. The NHC will be scrambling to get warnings and stuff out.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: ]
      #39026 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM

Thomas - how close to the coast do you see him running? 100 miles? 50 miles?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Watches/Warnings [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #39027 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:18 PM

I remember how we would always sit here and wait during previous storms to see when/where the NHC would issue watches/warnings. I don't think they issue them unless they pretty darned confident they are warranted. Here's some of the reasons why: it brings up the level of the local EOC's, who then go into planning for evacuations, who then go in to the process of ACTUALLY evacuating. We then see (perhaps before the local EOC's) the state EOC go into action, usually followed by the Governer requesting help from the federal government. All of this takes a lot of time and money, and I seriously don't believe they (NHC) would put up watches/warnings just on a whim that the models *might* shift more to the right. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see more watches/warnings extended up and down the ENTIRE peninsula (hurricane on the west, tropical on the east) in the next day or so.
The information they are getting is now more conclusive because it's coming from Recon, so that is probably why we are seeing more of a consensus in the model outputs.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #39028 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:20 PM

And this is what makes me so angry. The local tv news stations... the newspapers... they all told the public that there is no chance that this hurricane is affecting south or central florida. Well, supprise... it very well may. I hope people learned their lesson last year with Charley, and really prepare for this one. We can't be dogmatic about these things.

--------------------
cheers


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle 30.47N 86.64W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39029 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:20 PM

Even if Dennis tracks according to the NHC forecast and slams into the Pensacola area, the projected growth of the storm itself looks to bring some seriously nasty conditions to much of the southwest/west coast of Florida. Check out this graphic produced by the Navy.

Navy Forecast Graphic

Everyone needs to stay on their toes...


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39031 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:30 PM

Quote:

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.




I'm sorry, but since you're posting frequently I thought I'd have to point this out.

"If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out"

You're more confident in your prediction because the storm is passing by a landmark (they're using a SE Cuba landmark, because this evening on its NW journey, it's passing (to the south) of SE Cuba)? It's still destined to make its crossing of Cuba well to the west of anything remotely considered "more to the east on Cuba".

So how did what you quoted support your off-on-a-limb prediction of a South Florida hit again?

Just curious, because it seems to me that rather than point to anything substantial (like weather patterns and/or historical data), you're just pulling a fearcast out of your nether regions. Since you haven't explained your theory ("I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing."), you just seem to be enjoying the "sound" of your own voice, and grasping at straws.

There are professionals here and this is a great resource. Rather than repeating yourself every 15 minutes about how much more right you are about your South Florida hit, please consider normal conversation and let the storm prove you right or wrong.

If I'm off base, I apologize, but reading a new post from you every 15 minutes about how it's definitely looking more like a South Florida hit is getting old.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis [Re: Lysis]
      #39032 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:32 PM

Lysis...I've been watching and reading the newspaper the last couple of days and I haven't seen ANY of the mets say it wouldn't affect us at all...we were still in the "cone" and most of them that I saw kept repeating that "we have to keep a very close eye on this because the margin of error is large this far out". Now, I grant you that I haven't been able to watch ALL of them at the same time, so I might have missed one or two, but I think in general they have been very responsible in their reporting.
People need to pay attention to the "cone" not the black line..unfortunately, even though the people down in Punta Gorda were under a hurricane warning, a lot of people chose NOT to leave.
Let's hope that EVERYONE learned something from last year's season and prepare to leave if they are asked to this time.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Models [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #39033 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 PM

Where is the model showing Tampa? I read earlier about a possible Tampa hit. I need to find the cooridinates for Tampa. How do I find these?

Thanks


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Kal]
      #39034 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 PM

WIth a powerful Cat 3 off skirting the West coast of Florida the wind and rain and tides will take their toll. Even inland, possible tornado's and torrential rains.
Just depends on how close Dennis comes. Don't you wish we could tell how fast the High Pressure will move East......

Still hot/sunny and humid in most of Florida right now.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39035 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:35 PM

here in riverview it is 95 degrees heat indexof 104, the hudity is at 46%....so yea its still hot...but reminds me of last year ....the waiting game has begun...

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39036 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.




I'm sorry, but since you're posting frequently I thought I'd have to point this out.

"If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out"

You're more confident in your prediction because the storm is passing by a landmark (they're using a SE Cuba landmark, because this evening on its NW journey, it's passing (to the south) of SE Cuba)? It's still destined to make its crossing of Cuba well to the west of anything remotely considered "more to the east on Cuba".

So how did what you quoted support your off-on-a-limb prediction of a South Florida hit again?

Just curious, because it seems to me that rather than point to anything substantial (like weather patterns and/or historical data), you're just pulling a fearcast out of your nether regions. Since you haven't explained your theory ("I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing."), you just seem to be enjoying the "sound" of your own voice, and grasping at straws.

There are professionals here and this is a great resource. Rather than repeating yourself every 15 minutes about how much more right you are about your South Florida hit, please consider normal conversation and let the storm prove you right or wrong.

If I'm off base, I apologize, but reading a new post from you every 15 minutes about how it's definitely looking more like a South Florida hit is getting old.






well i pm Bob and asked him to explain to me and he did... just because you don't agree with him doesn't mean you have to berate him, everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, no matter how odd it seems. I think even the most unseasoned weather hobbiest has enough intelligence to know that you take certain things with a grain of salt.

My two cents.....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39037 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

Accuweather has moved its path back towards Ft Walton Beach. This is their third change of the day. Most models still pointing to the area between Mobile and Appalachicola. The current position actually has not deviated much from the NHC forecast positions. Lets face it, everyone pay attention. I remember watching Ivan turn right and make landfall 80 miles east of where it was suppose to, all in the last few hours. Sometimes I think the best model is the satelite picture.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3884
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39038 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:36 PM

I'm still thinking Western Panhandle, pretty much along the NHC's track. South florida mayg et some of the storm's outer regions, that's why it's under a tropical storm watch. However, there isn't much room for it to make a direct hit there.

Concentrate in the Eastern Gulf. I'm not doubting the NHC at all on this, and don't see any reason to do so. If you are under a watch or warning area you need to prepare regardless. In fact I would get gas, etc now even if it does not come your way because of the rush that would occur if anything trended in your direction.


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