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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Guest
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Re: Models [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39039 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 PM

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

And by the way, we just a downpour here in Largo, just west of Tampa. So much for that Bermuda High..


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39040 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 PM

Palmetto -- the last "major" storm to affect Tallahassee was Kate in 1985, and that only brought 45mph winds to the airport...yet many lost power for a week.

A category 3 hurricane would be unprecedented, as nothing beyond a week hurricane has directly affected this area since before 1900. Storm surge maps for the area are rather sobering as well -- Apalachee Bay is the most susceptible area to storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico & perhaps the entire basin.

Re: water temperatures -- according to buoy observations, water temperatures are about 87 degrees offshore of Tampa Bay. The shallower waters in Tampa Bay itself and directly along the west coast might well be warmer -- closer to the 90 degrees reported -- but are not that high over the open waters.

FYI: recon pressure within the past 10 minutes down a full 6mb to 956mb. Cuba and Jamaica are going to take one strong beating from this storm.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #39041 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 PM



... I know this is wrong, but it made me jump:
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=985&stc=1

My local paper today really downplayed the significance of the storm, and a tv personality said some equally ignorant remarks. My apologies to the majority of the weather community and their efforts in accurate forecasting.

--------------------
cheers


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Dennis and Cuba [Re: Kal]
      #39042 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:40 PM

I will make this very brief as I still not 100% sure where this will end up. Clark and ED gave a near perfect explanation and I cant agree more.
To make a prediction right now I say Dennis will move with the GFDL,GFS, and Canadian Models thru central Cuba to just west of the Keys. The move NNW anywhere from along the west coast of Florida to 100 miles offshore. The ridge now has moved over the Bahamas and is squeezed in a NNW-SSE direction moving Dennis NNW on Saturday. Landfall could be in Western Florida but most likely just south of Tallahassee. The Ukmet isnt out of the question also if it wants to keep Dennis along the south shore of Cuba due to land interaction. If so a Panama City-Mobile landfall will take place.
Right now I want to see the 00Z model runs and see if and where he does want to enter Cuba. The next 12-24 hours is the future path of him.


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC 34.11N 77.91W
Re: Models [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39043 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:41 PM

Tampa is roughly at 28 and 82

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Models [Re: Guest]
      #39044 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:42 PM

Quote:

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

And by the way, we just a downpour here in Largo, just west of Tampa. So much for that Bermuda High..




Thank you for those!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Please Stop This! [Re: tpratch]
      #39045 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:44 PM

Here's the reason the ftlaudbob gave for his thinking:

Quote:

That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow Dennis to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.




You may have missed this, so I decided to post it for you so you could see he is not fearcasting or anything else. He's been saying this for the last two days.

Instead of all of this quarreling over who said what when and why people think they are wrong or right, could we please, for the sake of ALL of us following a serious situation here that's going to affect SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, try to focus on what the storm is ACTUALLY doing?
I understand tempers are short and nerves are frayed all over the GOM, but let's remember that we are all here for a common cause: to help each other learn and understand; not to demean and embarrass.
Thank you!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: trinibaje]
      #39046 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:47 PM

What index was that again folks, the "Pucker Index"?

Whatever it was called, it *sounds* like it was a good prediction of some of the members in this forum. Guys, chill out, let the mets guide us, both those here in the forum and the ones at the NHC. Just hit the next button if you don't like a particular post, and remember in your personal settings (top of each page can get you there), you can set an ignore list.

Now, back to the F.U.D. (fear, uncertainity and destruction)...gosh, that sounds like Microsoft, not the NHC or mets

Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39047 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:49 PM

My intent was not to demean and embarrass, as much as it was to point out that the frequency of updates to his own theory might have been better served as an edited post rather than the one or two sentence replies they have been.

Yes, he's been saying it for two days and he is consistent. My apology in advance was quite sincere as I might have simply misunderstood where he was coming from.

I did catch the comment about the weakening high, but it seemed more of an afterthought than anything entered into with forethought (not to mention more recent than his original theory).

My apology still stands if I offended. My request for updates less frequently is still on the table as well.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39049 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:50 PM

I agree 100 %......Weatherchef

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Please Stop This! [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #39050 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:52 PM

Can anyone access the 12Z GFDL??????????? Its not opening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: Ricreig]
      #39051 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:52 PM

Quote:

What index was that again folks, the "Pucker Index"?




A more-appropriate inappropriate phrase you'll never find

Quote:

Just hit the next button if you don't like a particular post, and remember in your personal settings (top of each page can get you there), you can set an ignore list.

Now, back to the F.U.D. (fear, uncertainity and destruction)...gosh, that sounds like Microsoft, not the NHC or mets

Richard




I had forgotten there was an ignore feature. I'll consider its use in the future if I sense a trend.

Thanks,
--Tom


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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
Re: Gulf Temps [Re: Guest]
      #39052 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:55 PM

Yeah.... I'm getting nervous here in Lake/Orange County. The storms were great for my paycheck last year, but I can't handle the stress again. Well, guess I won't have much of a choice, will I?
Hopefully, the things holds the current forecasted track. Not that I am wishing this thing on anyone.

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: Colleen A.]
      #39053 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 PM

Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: palmetto]
      #39054 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:58 PM

Quote:

Wasn't Joe Bastardi the one who maintained that Frances and Jeanne were going to curve up to hit the Carolinas?

I don't like this at all. Tallahassee hasn't seen a storm like this in...what, 20 years?




That definitely has me worried as well. Too many 100 ft plus pine trees surrounding my house to ride this one out.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #39055 - Thu Jul 07 2005 02:59 PM

Quote:

Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.




seems like he is on a suicide mission with the mountains of Cuba

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Re: there is not a good scenario [Re: tpratch]
      #39056 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:01 PM

I hate to say this...but I am starting to see a bit of a more northerly component...just watching the visible 1/2 hr loops....

perhaps the resumption of a more wnw track after the interraction with Jamaica finishes will occur...or perhaps it won't...

The thing that makes the most sense to me is the post by Thomas Giella...that its a timing issue...with the rebuilding of a bermuda high..the hurricane could kick left...and if the high doesn't rebuild..and on and on...

...much more is going on in the atmosphere that a computer doesn't have, even much less understand...so the fact is...is that even now....Dennis could swing left or right of the "projected" path 250 miles...and that's an average mistake the models make this far out... Heck...what kind of assurance is that?....some........

my point is this....NO ONE is out of the woods with this hurricane. Let's just watch and see....

excellent posts...but I concur...we should leave this forum open...for any comments....it makes it more real....


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 136
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Coorindates for selected cities. [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39057 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.



Thank you for those!




PM me if you'd like a set for your city.

Key West: 24.57 N, 81.68 W

Miami: 25.8 N 80.23W

Ft. Lauderdale 26 11 N 80.18W

WPB 26.75 N 80.05W

Naples 26.15 N 81.80W

Punta Gorda 26.94 N 82.05 W

Sarasota 27.30 N 82.52 W

Lakeland 28 09 N 81 95 W

Tampa 27.95 N 82.49 W

Westernmost Pinellas County 27.88 N 82.87 W

Cedar Key 29.15 N 83.03 W

Central Coast of Appalachee Bay 30.1 N 84.00 W

Tallahassee 30.47 N 84.28 W

Panama City 30.17 N 35.67 W

Pensacola 30.45 N 87.21 W

Mobile 30.68 N 88.05 W

Biloxi 30.4 N 88.88 W


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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Pressures along E coast of FL [Re: Clark]
      #39058 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM

Although modest, the pressures along the East Coast of FL (Ormond Beach) have been dropping slightly this afternoon. Link below will provide information from our site. The rain guage is not functioning properly and the entire system is scheduled to be upgraded on Tuesday...

Michael


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
Re: Please Stop This! [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #39059 - Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM

I don't understand how to use the FSU Experiment Model page. What "views" and other settings are selected to provide images that relate to those "spaghetti-style" graphics shown on WeatherUnderground, etc.? Or are these tools above my understanding as a novice user?

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