Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Er isnt this cane 200 miles across?
Oh, you mean being 100 miles from where the eye of the storm hits land... in a lateral direction.... for some reason your post implied to me that you were going to watch the storm when it was still 100 miles off the coast...
Good point... rjp... I'll stop antagonizing.... Man, I'm bad about that today!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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tracking it on Cuban radar sure looks like a solid NW to me too...
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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What is the extrapolated line represent?
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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seems the models are all coming into agreement now.. things must be getting a bit more stable to predict from.
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WeatherNLUAway
Unregistered
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XTRAP is an extrapolated line using the current overall motion of the storm. In other words, it's where it would go if it does not change direction at all from now until landfall.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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thats if it continued on its present motion without changing
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
You missed my point entirely. My point was that you just might have to "ride it out" no matter where you evacuate to, so you should be prepared to do exactly that, whether you stay where you are or flee to a county that isn't even under an evacuation order.
I had hoped for intelligent discussion on how to protect yourself where you are, and not always relying on "head somewhere else". Because sometimes you can't head somewhere else, you find it on your heels despite trying to get away from it. I am not a brave advocate of "riding it out",. I'm simply a concerned mother trying to keep my family safe.
-Bev
Sorry, I misunderstood as well. The first thing I would recommend is to always evacuate inland. Evacuating up or down the coast is a dangerous proposition. Evacuating from one coast to the other will work, too.
If you are in the path of the hurricane, evaucation zone or not, always move to the center of the building farthest away from windows. I have recently heard that a mattress over your head is a bad idea, more people get crushed beneath them then are saved from falling debris. Instead, use a thick blanket. If things are real bad, a tub is an excellent hiding place.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Marco island =[
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Er isnt this cane 200 miles across?
Seeing posts from people like this makes me think things should be restricted to registered members until things calm down. lol
well was about the same size as and that was 200 miles across with hurricane force winds 65 miles from centre!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Why the sudden shift to the west on the models.??? I was excited about the eastward trend for us, but now most come right towards the western panhandle.
Obviously they'll keying in on some change to the ridge on day 3. But, maybe they'll cluster together tomorrow and we can all get a better idea of where this thing is headed. I think the Gulfstream jet will be making a data gathering run tonite, which should greatly improve (hopefully) tomorrows models. It's too soon yet to write off anywhere from NO to the FL peninsula.
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RJB
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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So with the cluster of models moving back towards the west the earlier talk of possibly skirting the west coast of FL it this still a possibility?
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j.c.
Unregistered
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I also see a more northerly trend. As for the models, it is my observation that we need to be watching the actual movements over a few hours to determine if these wobbles are an actual new track or just a brief drift one way or another. Once we see if it establishes a new track we then may be able to see what is influencing the track and see if it will hold. My thought is if the high pressure ridge begins to break down then it would have to turn more poleward and perhaps bring it up the east side of Florida kind of like a Floyd track of 1999 something Clark discussed in an earlier blog today. Any thoughts on my idea?
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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yes it is
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cheers
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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NNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOO...lol
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Well, that would be good for me here just north of Orlando.... it would be too good to be true.
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Was just over at Hurricane City's website and they have a tool which you can use to see which storms have passed near the area of current concern/nearest major city to the current Hurricane.
With Port Antonio, Jamaica being the city nearest to , the last time this area was brushed or hit by a storm was last year by .....Now by no means is this to say that will take the same course as but very interesting to say the least.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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that you get hit?
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cheers
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Mike S
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Crestview, FL
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Did someone say "free plywood" I know there is none up here in Crestview..or gas, or generators, or pretty much anything else. Most stations closed up early this evening. Hopefully they will have more time to fill them up before 85 becomes a parking lot like it did for Opal. 
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PolkBB
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
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Watching for a trend is the key in movement but I agree that the exit point on the north coast of Cuba is critical for the impact of the Florida peninsula.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I was told that the 18Z did not have the data in it from the Gulfstream, so it basically isnt really useful. 00Z should have new data...
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I dont mean this to question anyone's knowledge but my own. Yesterday, when all of the models were saying similar thngs everyone seemed very suspicious. Now it seems that more people are seeing that as evidence that they models are somewhat verifying each other. What changed?
Thanks again for helping all of us who don't know muc understand and stay on guard.
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