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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: Lisa NC]
      #39854 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:32 AM

I think there are some mountains in the region, but certainly not enough to really hinder the storm. Maybe if the storm was traveling at a really slow pace, like under 10mph, it's possible that you may see some drastic drop in intensity, but i doubt that will happen. Years ago i saw a cat 4 go through Dominican Rep/Haiti: mostly mountains and rugged terrain. When the storm emerged on the other side, it took less than one advisory for it to gain it's strength again. I think it was Georges and maybe it wasn't cat 4 at that time, but i know it hit those mountains and it did lose some kick, but it regained it all when it hit the water again.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
Re: Key West [Re: Lysis]
      #39855 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:33 AM

I've noticed that as well on the local weather. I'm in Daytona Beach and believe it or not, I've seen a few people starting to grab supplies at places like WalMart.

By the way, I've been watching this site for 2 years now. Although this is my first post, I have found the information on here to be outstanding! Keep the info coming!


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: Key West [Re: Lysis]
      #39856 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:34 AM

They'll get the effects from the weather 1st? Sure as time goes the watches/warnings will change as needed.

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Key West [Re: Katie]
      #39857 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:37 AM

Quote:

FOX news just said that the Keys will be getting a direct hit with winds at 150 mph...I sure hope they evacuated. Any idea on high tide and when he is suppose to cross over. I am just curious what kind of damage he can cause on our islands down there.

Yeah, people in the Panhandle aren't joking with him. My former boss in Pensacola is packing up the family and heading elsewhere. They lost their house in Ivan and don't want to be around if Dennis makes his way up there.




I wished my Family would do the same. They are in Grand Bay, AL and are "waiting to see where it goes." I know they will not have time to avacuate if necessary.

Anyone in the Mobile area - have you heard where the shelters are? I know during Ivan, there where hardly any shelters open and most of the Mobilians had to go to Baldwin CO for shelters.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Key West [Re: Katie]
      #39858 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:38 AM

Quote:

FOX news just said that the Keys will be getting a direct hit with winds at 150 mph...




Just remember to temper that statement with knowledge of the source.

That network does hurricane coverage in a highly melodramatic way. My friend in Connecticut remarked after watching Fox coverage of Frances, that he was surprised that I
A) stayed in my block-contrstucted house
B) wasn't blown away by the high winds
C) wasn't having to tread water due to the storm surge
D) was alive at all

Bear in mind, of course, that I was in Brevard County and about 1 mile inland from the river in an area with solid drainage.

Don't get me wrong, I get a kick out of watching that station, but I'm not so sure about the Keys getting a direct, 150mph hit...


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
Cuba kick [Re: twizted sizter]
      #39859 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:39 AM

I think it will kick slightly left to miss the mountains.....as it gets nearer and near to Cuba.....just look at the water vapor loop...the storm is gonna get knocked a little off course....and we won't know the real cone of disaster fully till it leaves Cuba...

as it gets into Cuba...what direction will the kick take..if any at all?....

to many variables...who really knows?....


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Key West [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39860 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:39 AM

Most shelters are not strong enough for a catagory 3. In Pensacola, the civic center lost iys roof during Ivan. They are better than a mobile home but if you are out of storm surge a good built house is safer.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Key West [Re: pcola]
      #39861 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:41 AM

Quote:

Most shelters are not strong enough for a catagory 3. In Pensacola, the civic center lost iys roof during Ivan. They are better than a mobile home but if you are out of storm surge a good built house is safer.




Thats the problem..they are not...


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
Re: Key West [Re: pcola]
      #39863 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:44 AM

Excellent point. The nearest shelter to my old house was a 5 year-old elementary school about a quarter mile away.

They lost part of their roof during Jeanne. Of course, the school was also right off of the main road with very few trees/buildings blocking the wind, so it took everything head-on, whereas my neighborhood had lots of winding roads to help reduce the amount of "wind tunnel" effect.

If you're going to stay, stay in the safest location possible.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Map of Cuba [Re: Lisa NC]
      #39864 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:44 AM

Can't yet find a good topo map of cuba, but here is a shaded relief map of Cuba.

Shaded Relief Map of Cuba


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Key West [Re: Katie]
      #39865 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:45 AM

Quote:

FOX news just said that the Keys will be getting a direct hit with winds at 150 mph....




See updated maps at the top of this thread.


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Key West [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39866 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:45 AM

Last I heard, a lot of the Mobile County schools were going to open as shelters whereas a lot of Baldwin County will not. I'm sure Baker H.S. in west Mobile will, as it has no windows and is rated as a shelter. I'll probably be riding it out in West Mobile as well, because hubby is too stubborn to leave. *gulp*

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Key West [Re: mbfly]
      #39868 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:47 AM

Hey Skeet, can you provide a map that includes the diameter of the storm through its whole track north?

EDIT: Yes, Katie... that was 150 nmi *out from the center*, not 150 mph winds.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 08 2005 11:49 AM)


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: doug]
      #39869 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:48 AM

Quote:

The most interesting thing in the discussion was the comment about the deepening trough to the west and a couple of the models getting a handle on that: creating a slight deviation to the right in the solution...about 40 miles worth it looks like.

watching the water vapor suggests the jet is clearly now setting up cutting across the northern expense of the peninsula at the Big Bend area...this is the kind of thing which falls into my OOPS factor and if this is in fact deepening...well how many ways can we spell Charley, only this time further up the coast...??/ I am CONCERNED on this point and wish one of our Mets could address it....
Also the satellite presentation is showing an elongation to the NNW which is often an indicator of future direction...
The radar presentation shows steady progress directly toward the site.




i was also notice'n a more nnw trend could be a woble .. who knows .. but i was curious about the jet .. stering the storm .. more towards the west coast of central FL .. any of our Mets have any imput on what doug stated ?


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: MikeC]
      #39870 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:48 AM

I love the box you added to the forecast track map with the storm making landfall right on top of Jim Cantore. A little gallows humor?

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: lawgator]
      #39872 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:51 AM

Quote:

I love the box you added to the forecast track map with the storm making landfall right on top of Jim Cantore. A little gallows humor?




I saw that too.....lol


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #39874 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:53 AM

Quote:

I just heard that 60% of the locals in Key West are staying.I just don't understand that.




It's a very different mindset there. Some have boats that they don't want to leave, others don't want to be stuck on one of the bridges and not make it totally out of the Keys. They figure if they have a chance of getting stuck in the Keys it might as well be at their house, boat, houseboat, even if it is a bit closer to the eye.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: doug]
      #39875 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:54 AM

Doug -- I think you hit the nail on the head with most of your analysis, though I wouldn't go for the Charley scenario at all right now. Dennis is probably a strong enough storm -- and will be one -- to be able to resist much of a sudden turn to the northeast. It is already strong enough to appear to be eating into the southern extent of the ridge, likely a result of weakening steering currents in the region as the pattern tries to change and the hurricane enters the area. What it all means...well, we'll just have to wait and see.

For what it's worth, the 12Z GFS takes the storm almost north from here, bringing it very near Ft. Myers, then turning it back to the NW. Landfall ultimately occurs in ~54hr near Destin after riding up the coast from Apalachicola. It does slow it down west of Tampa, which would be interesting to see if it occurs, just for the final impact it'd have on the track.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Dennis Deepens [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39877 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM

It would be funnier if I wasn't so close to it !!!

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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: shelters [Re: Southern4sure]
      #39878 - Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM

I work at a school in Sarasota and we already have our hurricane supplies from the county. We are a "special needs" shelter so we always open first. Staff was told to lock everything up just in case. Right now we aren't open, but will know around 4:00/5:00 if we will open. I was told it would be due to tropical storm winds and voluntary evacuations.

Stacey


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