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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #40437 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:59 AM

that trough worries me it appeared earlier to be digging south and east a little faster. I wonder if it is beginning to influence it with the more northerly jog in the past hour and the slowing down of the system.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #40438 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:01 AM

Quote:

I was reading back on posts earlier this evening and I was wondering if youse guys think that the trough in the western Gulf of Mexico will play into Dennis's track? And also, what about the High Pressure system over Fla.




Best I can say is read Ed Dunhams blog and Clarks blog today. The short answer is yes, the trough may, and I say may, cause a more northerly motion (rather than NW) or even a N-NE motion toward the big bend area of FL.

--------------------
RJB


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
00z gfs [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40439 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:01 AM

dennis will probably be very bad news for folks at the coast, but the erratic behavior the models are showing after landfall once it runs out of ridge to ride and the low level flow kicks in... latest GFS runs have it running up to near southern illinois and then drifting back south to central mississippi by july 15th. i don't know if it can maintain a coherent circulation overland for that long, and it will probably shear off at some point.. but seeing that erratic behavior makes me wary of a serious inland flood threat in the midsouth.
dennis kept a tight inner core during it's passage of cuba... in spite of staying over land for a good while. it should spin back up to cat 3 or 4 in 12-24 hrs. i'm less optimistic about getting the PCB-destin strike window right.. as unwavering NHC track near pensacola and mobile continues to stand strong.
the globals are showing two apparent tropical cyclone threats coming out of the eastern atlantic in the following week. one is the wave consolidating the broad disturbed weather near 30-35w. in spite of a great environment aloft on the models and SSTs that are well within support range GFS and the rest of the globals aren't showing much for it. when it gets near 40-45 west those SSTs really start to go up... i wouldn't be surprised if a tropical cyclone named emily is threatening the ne caribbean around tue next week. the other thing showing on the globals is the follow-on wave which should emerge late tomorrow or early sunday. globals keep it on a low latitude approach, showing a persistent strong wave/surface low but not taking it off. that won't be a development threat for days, so not holding my breath.
dennis is going onto the home stretch. it's already secured a name retirement by its early season thrashing of the caribbean... let's hope it doesn't become infamous up here in the states.
HF 0601z09july


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: Nate]
      #40440 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:01 AM

Quote:

Wonder how much it will re-intensify in the gulf??

Anyone see any water Temp models?

Forecasters are all saying 3, but if it syas on more of a NW Path, it could go higher.




My husband was in PCB this morning boarding up the beach house, he stoped for a quick swim, and said it felt like bath water.

If someone could post the water temp models, that would be fabulous!!!

--------------------
Kelly


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40441 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:04 AM

Quote:

that trough worries me it appeared earlier to be digging south and east a little faster. I wonder if it is beginning to influence it with the more northerly jog in the past hour and the slowing down of the system.




Clark sez look for a slow down in motion for a sign of a change in direction (i.e. northerly). He sez this is a sign of the storm rounding the base of the ridge.

--------------------
RJB


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #40442 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:04 AM

check the latest water vapor imagery for GOM. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr... 27.81N 82.74W
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: kelcot]
      #40443 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:06 AM

Gulf of Mexico water temps

that's from the weather channel. you can see how warm it is there!! I know here in Clearwater Beach, the water temp is an amazing 91!


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40444 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:08 AM

also strange how the sat. pic is elongating south to north. Is this another indication of steering winds becoming more northerly? Plus I think that indicates some shearing going on in northern GOM, right?

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #40445 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:09 AM

for some reason i think a ULL may form over the BOC....been looking at data for last hour and sats.... the feature coming down through east texas looks stronger than say 4-6hrs ago.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:10 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40446 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:10 AM

I will more interested to see an updated version of that WV loop. If you look, you can see that Dennis is still inland over Cuba, so it's an older loop.
BTW...check your PM's ....I sent you one..you'll see a flashing envelope at the top of the screen.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40447 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:11 AM

well we are starting to hear some thunder here in Riverview....hopefully it doens wake the little one....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40448 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:13 AM

the elongation may be just a feature of the storm seriously weakened and disrupted over its long trip over Cuba. The shear u mention is real and Ed Dunham mentions it in his blog. He sez the SW shear may actually turn Dennis N-NE once it moves further north into the NE GOM.

--------------------
RJB


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40449 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:16 AM

Wow..that loop was fast! Does that indicate a more NW/NNW track to you? What kind of impact do you think it will have on Dennis?
Thanks!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40450 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:19 AM

Actually if you look the elongation is NW to SE hince the WNW and NW movement stand back and look at it.Clark is most definitely right slow down in movement usually means a change in direction.Then look at the clouds.

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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: dolfinatic]
      #40451 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:19 AM

Good morning all! I have been following this site since all the canes came through FL last year. I'm in NE Tampa. Scottsvb..pm me I think you're right up the road from me. Love the site - have learned so much more - thanks to all the mets/experts.

Now, Isn't the pulse digging off SE Texas pushing fast? This seems to me that this will take the storm a lot closer to the west coast of FL. And also isn't the hign in the Atlantic eroded significantly over the last couple of hours. I don't think ths will hit the west coast, but I think it could come with 40-70 miles. I think the latest models picked up on this.

What does everyone think??? Look at the latest WV's.

Edited by Mike N (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:24 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: Mike N]
      #40452 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:23 AM

center of Dennis has left cuba per key west radar!!!!
next stop northern Gulf

as of 1:10am edt 90% of center in north of havana


well 1:00am just came out

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:26 AM)


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr... 27.81N 82.74W
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: Mike N]
      #40453 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:26 AM

yeh, if it comes within 70-40 miles from the west coast of fla, we can expect some major changes in Tampa's forecast. Atleast if that happens, Pensacola most likely wouldnt get hit, which is good.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40454 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:28 AM

If it's NE of Havana, it's going to have more of an impact on the Keys...and potentially us if it keeps going that way. The last thing I want to do is wake up and find out that he's 50 miles off the coast of Tampa.
And that's not wishcasting at this point.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40455 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:29 AM

i am hearing you loud and clear colleen.....lets just hope it doesnt do that....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr... 27.81N 82.74W
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what??? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40456 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:29 AM

yeh, that would not be good. hopefully its not like Jeanne last year where we woke up in the morning and find out that its still a cat 2 in polk instead of the forecasted trop. storm strength. heh.

Edited by EaglezFan42 (Sat Jul 09 2005 01:30 AM)


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