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Invest93L Now Moving WSW and Weakening - Not Very Impressive Tonight.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Dennis Back over the Gulf
      #40730 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:49 AM

6:00PM
Dennis Category 3 again. Recon Report and special update confirm that pressure has falled to 947mb...

more to come.


4:45PM
Strength is up a bit to 105MPH winds at 5, track remains steady. Hurricane Warnings for the keys are dropped, replaced with tropical storm warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings around southeast florida have been dropped. West coast still has Tropical Storm Warnings Up. Hurricane Warnings remain up for the Panhandle West to the Pearl River.

Dennis survived Cuba. In the past 6 hours, Dennis has managed to stay together and Its core is intact and rebuilding. Conditions ahead may allow to make it to become a Category 4 system before landfall late tomorrow, stronger than Ivan. Folks in the warning area need to be prepared yesterday,

4PM
Recon Reports Pressure back down to 958mb, Dennis is regaining some strength. more to come at 5PM.

Original Update
Dennis has weakened over cuba and now is a category 2 storm in the Gulf


High Res Visible Still of Dennis at 2:45PM


The forecast track hasn't changed much, still aiming toward the western Panhandle.

Intensity is going to be the biggest question now. If it can regain itself or not. It's got a small eye, so it has a shot, but right now it's moving over slightly cooler waters. More to come soon.


Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm


StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Dennis
Google Map Plot of Dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL will be streaming video over hte internet from 5:30-6:30 PM tonight and then from 10PM until the storm is over. This is flhurricane met blogger Jason Kelley's TV Station.

Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam
Suncam.tv's collection of Dennis cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
Key West Webcams
New Orleans webcams

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #40735 - Sat Jul 09 2005 11:53 AM

Thanks for the map! I had heard here in Bradenton we would be on the edge of the tropical storm winds....

Stacey


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 67
Loc: Rockledge 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #40738 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:01 PM

Good Morning everyone.

Well the season is not taking its time in warming up again this year, so we have many months of storm watching ahead and I am looking forward to learning even more than I did last year.
For those that are new here, you have found a solid source of information from a well informed group of moderators and mets. Trust them, they are cool headed in the face of the storm, and will simply not led you wrong.
Rule of thumb....listen to your local authority on what alerts and such are going on in your neck of the woods.
Stock up on supplies early. Even though I am on the east coast close to Melbourne and not going to see much of Dennis, but for a bit of rain hopefully, I stocked the shelves from last year.
Check any supplies from last year for out dated stuff.
Then let the cooler heads that know far more than we who just watch tell us when to get worried.

Dawn


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: DMFischer]
      #40748 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:39 PM

well just read recon obs 10.... not much to read, but plane should be on the way back towards the center in a little bit

Dennis!!!

nasty squall just came through, alot of lightning and thunder....winds may have reached 15-25 gusts....heavy shower too

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: yecatsjg]
      #40749 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:42 PM

Stacey - I am in Bradenton too! So far not to bad here...we live in west-central bradenton, near bayshore gardens. A little windy, but not too bad.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #40750 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:43 PM

Down to CAT 1 90 MPH winds..

Could Cuba of killed this storm, it isnt intensifying, its losing strength every hourt if anything.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Nate]
      #40753 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:53 PM

the 1pm says 100mph and pressure down to 965.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Nate]
      #40754 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:53 PM

Quote:

Down to CAT 1 90 MPH winds..

Could Cuba of killed this storm, it isnt intensifying, its losing strength every hourt if anything.




Latest advisory as of 1 PM...100 mph still....
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200504.public.html


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gavsie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Kevin]
      #40756 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:56 PM

I'm here in Tampa and I just heard a report that the trough to the west is pushing over and high to the east is falling back. Is there any truth to that? I was just told there would be more of a chance for stronger winds. Just wondering.

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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: gavsie]
      #40757 - Sat Jul 09 2005 12:59 PM

Im listening to Hurricanecity.com broadcast of Channel 10 ABC and they said its a CAT 1 with 90MPH Winds. So I dont know, Sorry that what they said...

They just said its getting better organized, so its back to CAT 2...

They said 1PM advisory ups its winds to 100MPH from 90MPH.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40758 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:04 PM

the eye is looking much better on radar. eye wall is become more stuctured.

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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40760 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:07 PM

What Radar/Satellite you folks looking at?

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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40761 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:08 PM

Well 1ish here in St cloud, strong wind took my canopy over my house ripped it and bent metal poles.. so much for that very windy here. gloomy and rainy looking too. WOndering what were in for next.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: gavsie]
      #40762 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:11 PM

Quote:

I'm here in Tampa and I just heard a report that the trough to the west is pushing over and high to the east is falling back. Is there any truth to that? I was just told there would be more of a chance for stronger winds. Just wondering.




The 1PM update from NHC now states they expect a gradual turn toward the N-NW tonite & sunday. The 11 AM disc hinted at perhaps a shift to the east in the FL panhandle for ultimate landfall. I found this line interesting from the 1 PM update.

A STORM SURGE OF
8 TO 10 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF Dennis CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

Is the NHC tipping its hat? Do they expect a landfall in the big bend region of FL now? If so, that will probably mean a little worse weather for us folks on the west coast.

--------------------
RJB


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: gavsie]
      #40763 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:14 PM

Yes, that was mentioned in the 11AM advisory; the track has shifted ever so slightly to the east a bit; also models are shifting back to the east (per NHC discussion). What this will do is cause him to track more to the NNW/N over time, which in turn would keep him closer to our shoreline - maybe push him a little closer. But don't expect landfall in Tampa; it'll probably happen closer to Pensacola/Panama City Beach.
BTW...where did you hear that report? A news outlet? Radio? Just curious...not skeptical, just curious!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Colleen A.]
      #40765 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:16 PM

well we just got hit hard with a band and now under a tornado warning....winds got up to 26 ese....and its rianing hardcore....just thought id let everyone know....im in riverview and be ready....its a nasty one.....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: Nate]
      #40766 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:16 PM

Quote:

What Radar/Satellite you folks looking at?




key west long range loop
radar link


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Recon [Re: hurricane_run]
      #40768 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:20 PM

the pressure is stil dropping (964mb) Fl winds are up

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Dennis' future movement [Re: Ron Basso]
      #40769 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:21 PM

If you read the 11:00am discussion, they talk about not being surprised to see the models shift to the east on the next runs because some of them did not pick up on the strength of the trough coming down. I posted that over on the last thread; unfortunately, it was right after they started a new thread. Of course, the closer he gets to us, the worse our weather will be. We may just see higher gusts than previously forecast along the coast and inland.
Remember...there's still a cone of uncertainty -- and the storm could end up taking the extreme right hand track, which would still LEAVE US out of the "Cone", but affect our weather.
No one can pinfall the exact landfall until it actually MAKES landfall.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
Re: Dennis Back over the Gulf [Re: FlaMommy]
      #40770 - Sat Jul 09 2005 01:21 PM

Just started here in S.Tpa -- got very dark suddenly

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