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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Londovir]
      #41630 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Well looks like I might have my first blown forecast of the season with my landfall within 50 miles of Panama City. Only way it wouldnt happen is a direct N turn now and head maybe even slightly NNE. Anyways I expected a north turn more earlier, and it actually did look like it last night but was only a wobble. Looks like Ill miss my spot by 25-50 miles. Not bad but ill take the miss on landfall.
Hopefully everyone from Mobile-Panama City is indoors now and ready for this severe hurricane.
On a side note....Dennis's child should become our next depression late today or more likely tomorrow and threaten the Leeward islands Weds, Puerto Rico by thurs and Bahamas by the weekend.,.,,,US? too far out to tell.

scottsvb


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BobVee
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 15
Loc: Florida 28.60N 81.70W
Re: vortex msg [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41631 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Good luck to you and everyone up there. I cannot be there with you in person but will be there in spirit.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
webcam [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41632 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

Looks like http://hurricanetrack.com/ is up...but there isn't any discernable image, and he is saying that the pressure may not register.

But at least it looks like it will give wind speed and direction.

Looks like he took the barrier island road east as far as he could go past Gulf Shores, the tower is on Perdido Key which is a barrier island just south of the entrance to the bay.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41633 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?

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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41634 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

the guy on channel 9 news in Orlando said the pressure is at 930 lower than Ivans was when he come ashore.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41635 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

The next storm will be a small compacted system. Like Charlie last year. There is no reason right now where we cant see this becoming a hurricane in the next 4-5 days. Right now, we dont know.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Pasco Beach [Re: kissy]
      #41636 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Hey Kissy looks like MS coast is in the clear. You will get tropical force winds and rain but will be spared the intense center of the storm, which looks to make an AL/FL landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 PM)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Fl County Maps [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41637 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Anybody have a good link to share with detailed or interactive (zoom) county maps of Escambia/Santa Rosa area?

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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: webcam [Re: Margie]
      #41638 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Image is extremely hard to see.. Are they still working on the tower, or have they left the area?

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41639 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 PM

Quote:

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?



adv 25a just came out - winds droped to 135pmg and pressure went up from 937 to 939. Somewhere like strong CAT 3 weak CAT 4.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41641 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:15 PM

What is happening to the eye in this most recent frame? Satellite IR and water vapor imagery it still looks intact, but in the radar it looks like it is breaking up to the south?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41642 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:16 PM

Looks like a jog to the N maybe?

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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41643 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

After looking at the water vapor loops, surface pressures, and current radar views it is looking like the eye is rounding out again and it is moving into a position to come onshore to the west of Pensacola...the only questions now is will it move west or east as it makes contact with land...cat3/4 at land fall, but at least a smaller eye...prayers for all in the path...stay safe....

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Direction [Re: LadyStorm]
      #41644 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

Quote:

From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended)

MaryAnn
Quote:

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesn’t matter in the bathroom closet.







Know what you mean, they ARE scarier at night. But then again after watching whole oak trees fly by during Charley, maybe being in the dark isn't so bad after all.

My prayers are continuous for those of you in harms way. Favorite aftermath trick -- use your washing machine as an ice bucket. God bless and protect you.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


Edited by Sadie (Sun Jul 10 2005 01:21 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41645 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

You may make your forecast yet. The last hour of radar loop shows the storm moving..can u believe it...maybe an ever so slight N-NE direction. If this trend continues, P'cola may be spared the worst.

--------------------
RJB


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: AndyG]
      #41646 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

Defintely a jog to the north and if it contiunes for more than a half hour it's going to make landfall east of Pensacola. I feel so bad for those of you over there who went through Ivan and are now going through Dennis.

It's hard to believe your bad luck and our good luck here in New Orleans.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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msmith43
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 18
Loc: South Tampa
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41647 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:23 PM

It's a real shame about your forecasting prowess. I'm more concerned about those who will lose their homes and businesses. Your record isn't a great loss.

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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: msmith43]
      #41649 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:27 PM

that jog north actually looks northeast jog

no, that just isn't right. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 PM)


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #41650 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:29 PM

The latest radar is wild...it looks like it is starting to hook to the east...this would make things alot better for pcola....looks like it is starting to feel the land now...

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: eyewall behavior [Re: jr928]
      #41651 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:30 PM

I was watching TWC and the satellite run definately did show a right leaning turn to me.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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