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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41517 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:12 AM

No reason why this thing wont go CAT 5.....bad news

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: HumanCookie]
      #41518 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Go west as far as you can




Well the only way west of Wilmar is to take 98 up past Lucedale to Hattiesburg. Going that way you could get hit with very high winds because there is an inland hurricane warning for that area.

Many gas stations are out of gas around that area.

You don't want to get stuck on that tiny highway without gas.

Plan carefully if you decide to get out to Hattiesburg (or maybe Montgomery). There also won't be any hotel rooms available.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41519 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Quote:

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon




I think most of the motel rooms north of the area are full. Possibly to Memphis.
Louisiana and Texas may be a better solution for Mobile area evacuees right now. Some left the New Orleans area so there could be motels rooms available.


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41520 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

With the latest update at 9am, the northerly track at 16mph, that really has me worried that this fast moving thing is really gonna hammer it's landfalling area.

CNN was saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: ten hours [Re: pcola]
      #41521 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:14 AM

Quote:

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.




I dunno about the west turn. Seems counter to what you might expect. If u look at the water vapor, Dennis appears to be getting influenced by some w-sw shear from the ULL south of LA. Notice the more asymmetrical cloud shield.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Severe Weather [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41522 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:19 AM

I'm seeing frequent Tornado Warnings from Florida.
Please keep your radios and TVs on a local EBS station or turn on your WeatherRadio.
3 warnings in the last hour from the Tampa NWS County warning areas.
Latest Warning from Tampa NWS An hour old, but still severe weather in the area.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 807 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER LARGO...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT... LARGO BY 805 AM EDT. CLEARWATER BY 810 AM EDT. DUNEDIN BY 815 AM EDT. PALM HARBOR BY 820 AM EDT. TARPON SPRINGS BY 825 AM EDT. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:21 AM)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41523 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Quote:

CNN as saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.





CNN should listen to the NHC better.

"Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane."


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: Severe Weather [Re: danielw]
      #41524 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Yeah, we (Manatee county) had one around 7:30 this morning. Nothing since though.

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: AndyG]
      #41526 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:25 AM

anyone have the link of the site that has flood tide prediction charts for like 10-20 sites in the gulf, all listed on one screen? thanks!

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Happy Birthday HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
inland [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41527 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:26 AM

fortunately southwest alabama is rural once you get inland.. in terms of people and property there is less to be threatened. no comfort for folks in places like atmore, brewton, and grove hill.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41528 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:27 AM

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: inland [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41529 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:29 AM

NHC will shift the track slightly to the east next adv.

Per JK speaking w/ the NHC.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:38 AM)


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Family is hunkering down... [Re: danielw]
      #41530 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:31 AM

Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas?

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41531 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:33 AM

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL 26.30N 81.35W
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: tpratch]
      #41533 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:40 AM

Quote:

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)




Do they have text messaging capabilities? If so, that might be a good option. Still won't work if service is out - but - text messages will be sent when the system is available again (as opposed to calls that have to be re-dialed until you can get through). My prayers are with all in the path.

Karen

Great Idea!

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:48 AM)


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: tpratch]
      #41534 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

if the westward turn is going to happen it would be soon as the build up of storms on the western wall is what they keep saying may influence the westward shift again. how far east did the NHC say they may adjust and does that keep it heading north upon landfall?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kevx.shtml
shows clear nw float but water vapor makes it look n?


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birdwomn
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41535 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

So you don't panic after the storm: I was able to reach my Mom in Pensacola immediately after the storm then she lost phone service for several days, cell and land. It scared me to death. Bottom line phone service will be spotty at best. Often they could call out and not get incoming calls or vice versa. Or the phone would not ring, but if they picked up, it would connect. Fun stuff. DO tell them to try text messages to let you know they are ok or plans they have.

Just keep trying periodically if you can't get them. Eventually you will get through.

I am praying for them and everyone else in the path of this monster.

Edited by birdwomn (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:45 AM)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: birdwomn]
      #41536 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:56 AM

After Charley we diddn't have phone service for over a month with Nextel. However, some other companys got up to speed faster. Your ability to reach them may depend on what service they have.

--------------------
cheers


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41537 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:58 AM

Cell phone service will be around during and to some extent after the storm. The problem lies not with the towers, although some will fail b/c they are probably not designed for 145mph winds plus gusts especially the old ones, but the antennas they really take a beating in the winds. They move or fall off which will disrupt the network becuase they are not transmitting their signal in the right direction. However, if a tower/antenna site survives (which most do) they will have about 4-12 hours of emergency backup power (generators, batteries) then they fail. That is why most can use a cell phone during and usually one day after the event and then service dies until the main power is restored or the wireless company adds more gas to the generator. They only caveat is capacity...if there are 1 millions calls into a network designed for 500K calls...there will be problems. Good luck to your family...I really feel for all those folks up there!

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: inland [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41538 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:00 AM

Probably but Dennis looks to be going more NW again in last few frames. I guess he is stair stepping.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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