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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4344 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:58 AM

I meant EAST -

Cathy


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4345 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:04 AM

Cathy,

The trof is actually behind that front. Go back to the link I posted and animate for 30 frames. Behind the weather along the western gulf coast (in Texas), you'll see what appears to be a pickle shaped thing turning a bit and lifting out. Hope that helps.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4346 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:07 AM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html

There's the link again. If you set it to 30 like I suggested, you can see the southerly end of the trof now above the latitude of the TX/OK border.

Again, hope that helps.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 175
Loc: Orlando, FL
So where are we now
      #4347 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:14 AM

A couple of random thoughts to pass along. Rick, I hate to burst the bubble. SSTs in the Gulf seem unable to sustain a Cat5, probably not even a Cat4. While Cat3's don't seem as exciting, one this large could pose major problems.
As far as track goes, I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of a Panhandle hit. For lack of a better bullseye, I'll put it on Jason Kelley's forehead. Jason can now breath a sigh of relief, as Izzy should be many miles away. The models are converging on the idea of a loop-di-loop in the Gulf, before a move NNE into Big Bend-Panhandle. I don't really buy the idea that a storm of Izzy's size will be dancing the polka. Nevertheless, I think the general idea is looking good. Couple that with climatology and common sense, and Izzy will eventually start moving more N, then NE over time. I really don't see a lot of compelling reasons to move him to the west, except maybe to prove to Shawn that he really doesn't want to see a major storm up close and personal.
I'm out!

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4348 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:14 AM

If Izzy does go and spin around for a week, that could be good news. My guess is that the churn and upwelling of cooler water would eventually weaken him a bit if he stays over the same area for more then three days.

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4349 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:17 AM

Thanks Steve - after several runs I saw what you are talking about. What are the white clouds extending to Central America that's moving eastward? (That is the feature I was incorrectly calling a "trof".)

Sorry to ask such basic questions!

Cathy


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Stormhound
      #4350 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:23 AM

Once and for all, I DO NOT want a huge storm to hit here. If you would go and read my posts from the past several days I have said that over and over. A cat 1 is as much as I want. I have already lived through a STRONG CAT 2 back in 1983 when Alicia hit here. I don't want that again. From now on, be sure and read the person's other posts before making a comment like that. NO MAJOR HURRICANES HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4351 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:23 AM

That's a 'cold' front. In the transitional seasons (May, June and September) they'll sometimes line up north/south say more than NE/SW as they're trailing down the Gulf because they don't have a big push behind them. They kind of just get hung up.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4352 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:24 AM

Some interesting historical information I found this am. Thought I would share it with you all.

The Most Intense Hurricanes In The United States 1900-1996

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Intensity is for time of landfall. The cyclones may have been stronger at other times.

RANKING HURRICANE YEAR
CATEGORY PRESSURE
(MILLIBARS) PRESSURE
(INCHES OF MERCURY)

1. FL (Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35
2. CAMILLE (MS/SE LA/VA) 1969 5 909 26.84
3. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 4 922 27.23
4. FL (Keys)/S TX 1919 4 927 27.37
5. FL (Lake Okeechobee) 1928 4 929 27.43
6. DONNA (FL/Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46
7. TX (Galveston) 1900 4 931 27.49
8. LA (Grand Isle) 1909 4 931 27.49
9. LA (New Orleans) 1915 4 931 27.49
10. CARLA (N & Cent. TX) 1961 4 931 27.49
11. HUGO (SC) 1989 4 934 27.58
12. FL (Miami)/MS/AL/Pensacola 1926 4 935 27.61
13. HAZEL (SC/NC) 1954 4 * 938 27.70
14. SE FL/SE LA/MS 1947 4 940 27.76
15. N TX 1932 4 941 27.79
16. GLORIA (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3 *& 942 27.82
16. Opal (NW FL/AL) 1995 3 & 942 27.82
18. AUDREY (SW LA/N TX) 1957 4 # 945 27.91
18. TX (Galveston) 1915 4 # 945 27.91
18. CELIA (S TX) 1970 3 945 27.91
18. ALLEN (S TX) 1980 3 945 27.91
22. NEW ENGLAND 1938 3 * 946 27.94
22. FREDERIC (AL/MS) 1979 3 946 27.94
24. NE U.S. 1944 3 * 947 27.97
24. SC/NC 1906 3 947 27.97
26. BETSY (SE FL/SE LA) 1965 3 948 27.99
26. SE FL/NW FL 1929 3 948 27.99
26. SE FL 1933 3 948 27.99
26. S TX 1916 3 948 27.99
26. MS/AL 1916 3 948 27.99
31. DIANE (NC) 1955 3 + 949 28.02
31. S TX 1933 3 949 28.02
33. BEULAH (S TX) 1967 3 950 28.05
33. HILDA (Central LA) 1964 3 950 28.05
33. GRACIE (SC) 1959 3 950 28.05
33. TX (Central) 1942 3 950 28.05
37. SE FL 1945 3 951 28.08
38. FL (Tampa Bay) 1921 3 952 28.11
38. CARMEN (Central LA) 1974 3 952 28.11
40. EDNA (New England) 1954 3 * 954 28.17
40. SE FL 1949 3 954 28.17
40. FRAN (NC) 1996 3 954 28.17
43. ELOISE (NW FL) 1975 3 955 28.20
43. KING (SE FL) 1950 3 955 28.20
43. CENTRAL LA 1926 3 955 28.20
43. SW LA 1918 3 955 28.20
43. SW FL 1910 3 955 28.20
48. NC 1933 3 957 28.26
48. FL (Keys) 1909 3 957 28.26
50. EASY (NW FL) 1950 3 958 28.29
50. N TX 1941 3 958 28.29
50. NW FL 1917 3 958 28.29
50. N TX 1909 3 958 28.29
50. MS/AL 1906 3 958 28.29
55. ELENA (MS/AL/NW FL) 1985 3 959 28.32
56. CAROL (NE U.S.) 1954 3 * 960 28.35
56. IONE (NC) 1955 3 960 28.35
56. EMILY (NC) 1993 3 960 28.35
59. ALICIA (N TX) 1983 3 962 28.41
59. CONNIE (NC/VA) 1955 3 962 28.41
59. SW FL/NE FL 1944 3 962 28.41
59. CENTRAL LA 1934 3 962 28.41
63. SW FL/NE FL 1948 3 963 28.44
64. NW FL 1936 3 964 28.47

* - Moving more than 30 miles an hour.
& - Highest category justified by winds.
# - Classified Cat. 4 because of estimated winds.
+ - Cape Fear, North Carolina, area only; was a Cat. 2 at final landfall.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DIRECT HITS BY HURRICANES U.S. MAINLAND 1900-1996

CATEGORY 5: 2
CATEGORY 4: 15
CATEGORY 3: 47
CATEGORY 2: 37
CATEGORY 1: 57

TOTAL 158

Major hurricanes
(Categories 3,4,5): 64



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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4353 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:28 AM

Eye showing up on GOES vis... center at 21.66N and 83.63W... still going NW... Hound I agree with you .. I don't buy no Cat 5, never have, especially if this thing stalls in GOM... and I don't buy the system doing the loop de loop... based on size and inertia... but I can eat crow with the best of em... I'm still saying no farther west than the AL/FL line, with the panhandle getting the brunt... models are wrong a lot moretimes than they are right...

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Great post Kimster...
      #4354 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:28 AM

Historically speaking, lots of memorable ones on that list. Interesting, Isidore would not yet make that list as he is at 966mb. He's creeping up on it though.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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RickinMobile
Unregistered




sst's
      #4355 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:30 AM

The potential for hurricanes becoming a cat 5 are not bound only by SST's.......but I sure appreciate the insight. a cat 3 is exciting enough...Gilbert developed it's own weather, it became so large and intense...remember?...this one may not do that...looking at the satellite's...i have to watch it this morning for a while...but a category 3 meandering in the Gulf of Mexico doin' the twist, oughta make everyone sing and dance....

It will wobble to a 2, but I notice the feeding bands and general convection is growing. likely gonna pull moisture and strength as it makes banana splits out of the banana fields in Cuba...it has all the makings of a 4-5 to me..and I'm sticking to it...(POSITIVELY WISHCASTING?...a little)
Looks to me like it has a nice wnw-nw movement..will wobble a little over Cuba...and begin is ascent into hurricane infamy in a day or so...wouldn't be suprise to see regeneration to a 3 on sunday...and a cat 4 Monday....

depending on the movement...if Izzy keeps moving...she will begin her turn shortly after leaving the cigar factories....



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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Great post Kimster...
      #4356 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:30 AM

Is Isidore a He or SHE?

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Great post Kimster...
      #4357 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:33 AM

In reply to:

Is Isidore a He or SHE?




Isidore is a HURRICANE....however, the name is masculine


--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Upwelling will be a non factor
      #4358 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:34 AM

Because the waters in the GOM are very warm both at the surface and at the deep layers and if Isidore stalls in the gulf no upwelling will happen due to those very warm waters in the surface and deep.But if it stalls for a week then that could happen but this wont stall for many days.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4359 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:36 AM

Cathy,

That was Water Vapor Steve is showing you, Wait till the vis satellites come out in the day time you will be able to see much better on the movement of the clouds at low level and high level winds. Water Vapor is not a very good tool for predicting movement of hurricanes.


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Great post Kimster...
      #4360 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:39 AM

That immediately caught my attention...I believe someone should strongly consider ordering alot of Dyno gel....

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Agreed, but...
      #4361 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:48 AM

Water Vapor does show (especially that loop) why the trof won't pick up Isidore.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Some morning thoughts, and off the beaten path data....
      #4362 - Fri Sep 20 2002 08:52 AM

Growth and evolution continues, no surprises overnight...Izzy shoud be a major hurricane in the Gulf later on.

As far as the model runs, we are gonna have to give at least some weight to the meander solution...although you have to remember that the BAM's and the A98 models agree so well with the AVN because they are BASED on the AVN...naturally they shouldn't be too much of an outlyer...

I went digging this morning....this is an ensemble forecast, which is a composite forecast of several models blended together....it's interesting...check it out...

Ensemble..

Here is another, for the AVN/MRF ensenble, which is basically running the same model several different times with SLIGHTLY different inital data to account for posssible errors...look at the MSLP plots over the mid and long range...

MRF Ensemble

Then the NOGAPS ensemble....

Nogaps ensemble...

Similar data from the Canadian...

CMC ensembles...

Now, if you are thoroughly lost, here is the skinny of it...the blended output of several various model whcih disagree in the shorter term, ALL bring Izzy to the NW Florida Gulf Coast eventually...with STAGGERING agreement on location, if not time.

Food for thought...


--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Latest model run from nhc
      #4363 - Fri Sep 20 2002 09:00 AM

a subtle little change from previous run in the A98E and LBAR. Here's a summary of the latest run after 72 hours....
BAMD - going wsw after 24 hours - no real change
BAMM - going wsw after 24 hours - no real change
A98E - changed - has system continuing on NW track
LBAR - changed - has system moving more on a NE track as opposed to earlier NNE track

Pick your poison....

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092012


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