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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 475
Loc: Tampa
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #42668 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:32 PM

Oh I can see your point and it was certainly nothing more than some profound thinking at that very moment. Certainly solving many of mankindís ills, wars etc is not within the scope of those thoughts. They were common sense and simple thoughts for complex happenings. If nothing else the roundtable's, seminar's, symposium's; chatter and conversations that have taken place and will continue to, including on this site is already astonishing. Thanks for bringing me back and really simplifying

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Behind Emily [Re: MikeC]
      #42669 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:35 PM

I found the google map feature to be very interesting.

What is that you can see for Andrew? Were there mobile homes there before the storm, or houses? Because there are houses to the N & S...I wasn't sure. Kind of creepy - entire subdivisions that were never rebuilt, just sitting there like a reminder.

What I noticed that was so werid when zooming in on the map for Camille was I-10. It didn't exist when Camille hit.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Behind Emily [Re: Margie]
      #42670 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:39 PM

Margie, there were a lot of homes there before Andrew. For those who haven't seen it, if you zoom in to the finest setting on the satellite view and follow the track about 5 miles inland, you will see a bunch of roads with nothing along them; these are the subdivisions that Andrew completely leveled. Areas a bit further away likely have some of the same patterns, but many of them have rebuilt -- especially as you move north and further inland. It's still a spooky sight to behold.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Behind Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42671 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:41 PM

whats that link for those?

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #42672 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:41 PM

Though Emily may be more organized tonight, the low latitude may not fare well for her once she nears and passes close to Trinidad & Tobago as she'll be sucking in dry air from the S American continent. We'll just have to wait and see if she can gain any latitude to have a good chance at strengthening into a hurricane.
99L (future TD # 6, Franklin) looking like it is beginning to develop rather rapidly and should be TD # 6 sometime tomorrow. I don't necessarily agree that this has" fish" written on it yet, though it is at a rather high latitude for a developing system that far east, I just don't see the high weakening enough to allow a recurvature at this point, but only time will tell.

TG

Edited by Tropics Guy (Tue Jul 12 2005 11:44 PM)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #42673 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:44 PM

is that four waves im seeing out there?

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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: nl]
      #42674 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:49 PM

got a question does african dust storms cause this or what? and does anyone have a link about dust storms?

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: nl]
      #42676 - Tue Jul 12 2005 11:55 PM

Quote:

is that four waves im seeing out there?




You have Emily, a wave at 8N 42W, a wave at 15N 31W and a blob the size of Louisiana coming off of Africa. Going to be an interesting week. Of course the wave coming off Africa isn't likely to hold up, but you never know in a couple of days.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: nl]
      #42677 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:02 AM

this is why im tempted to just stay in long island all my life..i mean what atre the chances that his year we get even one hurricane?
----veerrryy slimm


im kind of upset with florida b/c..

1.Hurricane Andrew destroyed my top floor condo in Miami area
2.Hurricane Jeanne destroyed my house built in 2004(March i think)
3.I wanted to move there..but Carolina's are looking better

.....well i'd love to just say forget hurricanes they dont affect me..but they affect the best beaches in the US..props to florida..

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Clark]
      #42680 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:06 AM

Clark or ANYONE: How good are the models at predicting 4-5 days out troughs and their strength. Obvoiusly, this would pull Emily North. The cone of error 5 days out looks for the most part relatively west. Just judging by the cone it seems to an amateur that they (NHC) don't see anything strong enough to pick Emily up such as a Florida hit west to NO. Things change day by day, I know, today southward. Main question though is regarding the reliability of whatever predicts what might pick up Emily north. And is it only troughs? What else can have an influence besides the weakening of the Bermuda H.

What are/is everyone's thoughts on this?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Mike N]
      #42683 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:16 AM

Well I'm no one. But I did stay at Holiday Inn last night.
Just kidding...stress breaker there!

I looked back at NHC's 5 day track for Dennis.
I was very surprised to find that on Wednesday, July 6th, at 4:30 AM EDT, (that's almost 107 hours of track), NHC posted a track map with Dennis' track to nearly the precise point of landfall.
The only variations in the 'skinny black line' were where Dennis went over Northern Cuba. He was a bit East of the forecast track.
Florida landfall point was well within 50 miles, it appeared.
I seem to recall Londovir posting something to this effect right after Dennis' Landfall.
If they have this much 'luck' with the models for the rest of the season. This year will write many records. Not just with the storms but with NHC's forecast error verification.

Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 13 2005 12:26 AM)


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
New Thread [Re: danielw]
      #42687 - Wed Jul 13 2005 12:29 AM

*points everyone to a new thread*

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 99L and Emily [Re: Ryan]
      #43083 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:51 PM

Guess you dont remember Gloria

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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jrhurricane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Re: don't be so awestruck [Re: SirCane]
      #43455 - Sat Jul 16 2005 04:26 PM

I can't believe Dennis still has people without power. Dennis was pretty strong though.

--------------------
Jordan Ross Schroeder


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