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The wave east of the Caribbean, 96L, is very much worth watching over the next week or two.
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Laurel1143
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: poetdi]
      #42520 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:00 PM

Anyone willing to take on this question.... Is there any connection between an active early hurricane season and a slower late season? For example- if the is more tropical activity earlier in the season it's sucks all the heat out of the ocean resulting in less hurricanes in the typically busy late season (aug and sept)?

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jkbtrb
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Pensacola
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Laurel1143]
      #42521 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:02 PM

When will we know if this thing is gonna come towards pensacola or any of the gulf states near it? Thursday Friday?

Edited by jkbtrb (Tue Jul 12 2005 03:06 PM)


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Thunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Laurel1143]
      #42522 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:02 PM

Well, I'll put it to you like this...

I don't know.

Good question.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Thunder]
      #42523 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:05 PM

someone here asked that question today or yesturday, the answer they were given is:
there is no evidence that early active means not active late season
i forget who answered so i am not sure of the validity of this

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: NewWatcher]
      #42524 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:09 PM

Actually, reading an article last night, Dr. William Gray commented that early season activity does not mean less activity or more activity throughout the season.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: NewWatcher]
      #42525 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:10 PM

They've run the stats on that and there is no real correlation between activity early in the season and activity late in the season. By sheer numbers, more storms early on likely means that we will end up with more storms for the season than normal, just because a normal amount of storms later in the season still keeps you above normal for the whole year.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: Franklin in the offing? [Re: jkbtrb]
      #42526 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:12 PM

I was going to ask the same question! I'm south of Mobile (Bayou La Batre) and have surgery scheduled in Birmingham next Monday (18th). I should only be in the hospital overnight and then I'll have a family member drive me back home. I'll be non weight bearing for 2-3 weeks afterwards and trying to get out of here afterwards would be difficult to say the least.

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but I'm really hoping she'll stay low and stay away from the north central gulf!

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
New Runs [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42527 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:16 PM

12's are out, looks like Belize needs watch-out

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: New Runs [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42528 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:18 PM

What's the action several hundred miles NE of PR...looks like it's in a stron shear environment, anyway?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42529 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:22 PM

Emily has a very impressive mid-level structure right now, but the surface circulation is probably just a bit weaker than it may appear for the given cloud structure. If it can slow down and consolidate under that mass, it should be able to intensify rather steadily. If not, it could be pretty slow going for a while into the eastern Caribbean for the storm. We've seen many storms with this type of satellite appearance fizzle as they reach the islands or eastern Caribbean, including Earl last year, and while I'm not suggesting that this will happen with Emily...it still has a ways to go before starting towards the NHC's forecast.

The projected track keeps going a little further south and is now very similar to Dennis' through 5 days. It remains to be seen if there will be any large changes to this track or whether or not it will continue to follow in Dennis' footsteps after day 5.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: poetdi]
      #42530 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:32 PM

Any thanks should go to the Pro Posters and Mets here, they are the pillars of knowledge in my book

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Clark]
      #42531 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:34 PM

I don't know about anyone else, but Emily looks like she is going to play bumper cars w/ Venezuela

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42532 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:37 PM

She really looks like she's not doing too well to me.... and all that southernly motion has got to have a weakening effect, right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Recon is at 18Z... curious to what comes back...

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Terra]
      #42533 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:41 PM

ohhhh she looks awful....

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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GroovyCoach
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42534 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:44 PM

Hi,
I'm a softball coach. My team is traveling to Panama City, Fl, July 16th and staying until July 23rd for a fastpitch tournament. When would I have a idea, if or when Emily might effect the tournament.
Thanks for Any Help,
Coach Mike

www.leaguelineup.com/groove


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: trinibaje]
      #42535 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:45 PM

Not to start playing the "watch the computer models flip flop game," but for the sake of discussion, the latest FSU model shows a more northerly track than the previous run.

Newest: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EMILY.track.png
Previous: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005071200/EMILY.track.png

I was intrigued to see this, as it stands in stark contrast to the other models.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Tue Jul 12 2005 03:49 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: GroovyCoach]
      #42536 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:49 PM

Coach Mike - probably later this week into the weekend. If she doesn't make a swing into Florida before that. I would guess as we get closer to the weekend you will have a better idea of what she is going to do.

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GroovyCoach
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: Katie]
      #42537 - Tue Jul 12 2005 03:53 PM

Thanks

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nccathy
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: GroovyCoach]
      #42538 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:00 PM

We were there in july of 2003 for a fastpitch tournament. At that time there was a hurricane out somewhere in the distant Gulf. We had the usual afternoon thunderstorms daily and they were quite spectacular as thunderstorms go, but the bigger issue was rip tide. One softball player, in town for the tournament, was reportedly swept out, and our team watched as the coast guard tried to make a rescue. Our team, needless to say, was banned from all ocean front activities for the remainder of the World Series.

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: sat pics of emily [Re: GroovyCoach]
      #42539 - Tue Jul 12 2005 04:05 PM

Of course, it's way too early to say anything with any degree of certainty, but I do not believe that this is going to be a Florida problem. Emily looks to be a west of New Orleans problem. That ridge is going to be awfully strong come the weekend, and I just don't see anything making it to Florida in that time frame.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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