Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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meteosat is only updated every eight hours or something, so it allways looks a little screwy.
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cheers
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kapSt.Cloud
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Loc: Long Beach, MS
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I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I would take all of our 2004 hurricanes again if they kept another Galveston, Camille or Andrew from landing!!
Talk about horror! I would never wish one of these monsters on someone else just because we had a rough year last year. Granted, the west coast and panhandle had it worse than we did in Central Fla, but still nothing like those buzz saws!
And I'm from Texas, too!
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes? 
Wow.. a friend of mine has that theory, that seismic activity makes water warmer than usual... I told him he was nuts and he better not say that aloud to anyone...LOL
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
meteosat is only updated every eight hours or something, so it allways looks a little screwy.
Yep, every six hours, so it tends to take bigger jumps, because on a loop, you are looking at almost three days worth of movement.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Quote:
question could those quakes in puerto rico and everywhere else be shaking up these oceans? and does that have a effect on hurricanes?
Wow.. a friend of mine has that theory, that seismic activity makes water warmer than usual... I told him he was nuts and he better not say that aloud to anyone...LOL
He is nuts. Earthquakes occur, for the most part, where the water is coldest in the ocean...on the sea floor. Now I say the for the most part because some do occur in warmer waters. But if anything, it would cause the cold water to move. I wouldn't see any positive effect on hurricanes, maybe if a volcano heated the water enough constantly, close enough to the surface.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I would take all of our 2004 hurricanes again if they kept another Galveston, Camille or Andrew from landing!!
Talk about horror! I would never wish one of these monsters on someone else just because we had a rough year last year. Granted, the west coast and panhandle had it worse than we did in Central Fla, but still nothing like those buzz saws!
And I'm from Texas, too!
On a very local scale... is up there. What seperates him, aside from damage of a somewhat lesser degree, is that we got help the next day... instead of the next month like we did with Andrew.
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cheers
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Clark
Meteorologist
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ralphfl, I ask you to provide some proof of your statement that the mets here love to go against NOAA. That, in fact, is not the case. Most of the time, our tracks are very much in line with what the hurricane center forecasts. For the entire life of , the mets. here were calling for a Florida landfall, something you didn't see from a lot of other forecasts -- except the . And, when the gets one right, we are the first ones to give credit where credit is due (perhaps you forgot already?)...and when they get it wrong, we are there tempering the lashing that they undoubtedly take. For an example of that, see from last year.
Perhaps you have us confused with other organizations, such as the aforementioned (by you!) Joe Bastardi, who quite often is miles away from NOAA/NHC. Please do not make statements that cannot be justified, as it detracts from the job that people on here are trying to do -- and the conversation at large.
Thanks.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Lysis
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There is some dissention where appropriate; however everything is in good taste. People remember the bad forecasts forever (like what’s his name on channel six back in 92’ saying, “you heard it here folks, we are NOT having a hurricane.”...heh), and don’t even think about the good ones.
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cheers
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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My orginal thoughts don't seem too far out about a storm shooting westward around the poleward axis of the subtropical ridge. The caribbean seems to be clearing of any pre-existing shear, and with a building gulf ridge I doubt this storm will make any form of recurvature. Though I am entitled to my doubts by . SST'S are nice and warm especially in by the Yucatan channel though there is some slightly cooler water by the ABC islands, but I don't think Emily will stay that close to south america. Once past the leeward islands intensification looks good.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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kapSt.Cloud
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Loc: Long Beach, MS
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Big, big difference in 's winds vs Camille's and Andrew's. The latter two...Camill'e's...200+, Andrew's...195+. As I stated before, they were buzz saws! 's was 145.
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Lysis
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Cammile was 190
Andrew was (revised and estimated) 165
Charley was 150 at captiva (for the bugs and mangroves) and weakening to 145mph over downtown Punta Gorda.
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cheers
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Central Florida
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One other thing ralphfl, some of the discussions on here by the Mets are done in a sort of "Devils Advocate" type role. Tropical Systems are highly erratic and a nice discussion about possible pattern changes that could effect a landfall is educational and welcomed. Forecasters often look at the synoptic pattern and make a judgement based on the patterns, but some, Stewart at comes to mind, throw in the possible "fly in the ointment" scenario to keep us all honest. I enjoy the discussions of our Mets and hope they continue but the always give credence to the forecast. Isn't that what Joe B does and why he so wildly heralded? He looks at patterns and makes his own judgements even though you have to pay to see him prognosticate and he usual has a personal jab at the everytime he does it. I could not help but laugh when he made a comment on Yahoo yesterday that had hit here, he would have made his forecast. I can't see the throwing a party because they were right, and Pensacola got pounded again.
To our Texas friends, I hear what you are saying. I enjoy tracking storms, even when they do not threaten us but I won't be burning the midnight oil when a storm is heading for Texas, unless it is a monster. No offense and I would not expect you to burn that oil for a Florida hit. Our concern is for our State and not so much Texas and it is not personal. I do feel for any area that is under the gun.
Anyways, just my humbe opinion.
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Jara
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Edited by stormchazer (Wed Jul 13 2005 10:36 PM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Here's hoping Emily is no !
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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Long Beach, MS
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I refer all to this site in reference to Camille:http://www.maritimemuseum.org/camille
At this time I'm unable to find the documentation re:Andrew. Dinnertime!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Cammile was 190
Andrew was (revised and estimated) 165
Charley was 150 at captiva (for the bugs and mangroves) and weakening to 145mph over downtown Punta Gorda.
Some statistics on Camille.
In the area of the coast about 10 miles long between Waveland and Long Beach, estimates gusts from Hurricane Camille were between 210-220mph, with 190mph sustained winds. For 10 miles to the east of that, about to Biloxi, winds reached 180mph. The wind and coastal surge were so powerful that even plumbing systems were ripped out of concrete foundations. Highest areas of storm surge were 22-25ft, and in places water went over several miles inland - the highest ever in the US - and this is not counting the wave heights over the surge. The web has a story of a house two miles inland that was completely submerged. Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
About 20 miles to the east, the Biloxi-Ocean Springs bridge had its pilings moved around. Different pieces of the bridge were moved around - a couple feet higher, or to the side. In order to get people across the police had put what looked to me like sheets of plywood or something between these places. I'll never forget that sight.
My mom and dad had decided to pile us all in the car (six kids) and we drove as far west as we could to see the damage (kind of obnoxious, in retrospect; sight-seeing). The bridge was as far as they would let us go, since we weren't residents of Ocean Springs or points west.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I remember Camielle as well. She plowed down my father's little corn patch and we were in the panhandle of Florida! I have a question about the Satellite loops from the NWS. I keep getting flashes of color in the margins on the infrared loops and if I click on a still the picture is distorted like a double exposure. Is this a problem from the satellites or is it the web sites that the pictures are downloaded to, or do I have a java problem that needs fixing? It is very aggravating to try to see anything important and keeps me from enjoying the tracking game. Guessing where the storm will go before checking on the site to see what every one else is saying. ( My personal game).
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
To our Texas friends, I hear what you are saying. I enjoy tracking storms, even when they do not threaten us but I won't be burning the midnight oil when a storm is heading for Texas, unless it is a monster. No offense and I would not expect you to burn that oil for a Florida hit. Our concern is for our State and not so much Texas and it is not personal. I do feel for any area that is under the gun.
Heh... so true! The boards weren't exactly lit up when Claudette came a-knockin' 2 years ago... (not that a little Cat 1 even compares to what FL has experienced recently....) Granted, though, there was considerably more interest when the remnants of came back around into LA/TX last year....
Regardless, I always enjoy coming here to absorb the tons of information, analysis, opinions and speculations of all those who know more than me about these things... Even when it's not a Florida storm, the mets here can almost always explain it better than my local mets on TV (except Neil Frank, of course...) 
I suppose, in a way, the people from Texas may benefit from these boards more during a storm than people from Florida -- we still get the good info, without having to wade through all the overwrought, one-time posters.... 
And just to keep this on-topic before I get smacked around by the mods,  ... Emily has had a big blow-up of convection in the last few frames, but there's dry air ahead of her.
Smack
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Am I correct that, if she remains weak, she's more likely to stay to the south and out of the upper-level steering?
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Allison
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jul 13 2005 11:28 PM)
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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got a nice spin too her, is she going too the prom. we should get her for fui. hopefully she doesnt get any puerto rican rum in her.lol
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Pressure was the 2nd lowest recorded ever (1935 hurricane the other): several miles to the right of the eye, 909mb, in Bay St. Louis.
I could've sworn that Gilbert was the lowest-ever recorded pressure (888mb)...
Or are we talking about lowest at landfall?
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Allison
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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I will probably get slammed for this... but reading statistics like that from Camille should put things in perspective. All you inlanders... God bless you... only have but a trite taste. The "I went through three hurricanes" defense (I am not saying anyone used it just now) is getting a little old. If you went through three, then the truth is, you are probably too inland to complain. Now… of course everyone’s personal experience ultimately defines their reality. No one died in my family, so the family that had someone die in Orlando or Polk county had it considerably worse than I, despite incremental windspeed. Never the less, Cat 1's and 2's, while stressful and certainly destructive, should be virtually cherished.
*emotionally prepares for perhapes the biggest verbal lashing of life*
EDIT: Yeah, that was pressure at landfall.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 13 2005 11:40 PM)
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