Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
the eye is wobbling a tad around the overall force of the hurricane, the but general motion is still .2w, 1.0 north, or so....will probably track south of Jamaica.
In the extremely short time I've been here I've noticed that every time deepening occurs, that is when we see wobbles occur in the course, but that overall the course stays steady, so that as far as forecasting direction, it seems better to focus on the overall instead of every wobble.
I am wondering if the wobbles are due to deepening occuring in a non-symmetric manner; that is, more in one quadrant than another, and the wobble is a way to balance momentum and restore equilibrium? As if you were spinning and suddenly someone threw a weight into one hand, and you were off balance for a minute before pulling the weight into the center, but doing so made you move just a little.
Edited by Margie (Thu Jul 14 2005 08:49 PM)
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
she is booking it 21 mph geez! what she do steal something?  anyone have a link too cape verdi storms? i wanna know more bout them.
Edited by nl (Thu Jul 14 2005 08:52 PM)
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
That's not a wave necessarily but waves branch off from there. It's a conglomerate of differential heating, the , and a mosoonal trof.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
|
|
Don't leave out Haboob
--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
Quote:
Don't leave out Haboob
What are you talking about?
heh. he made you say haboob. -HF
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 14 2005 11:03 PM)
|
firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
|
|
Quote:
crap... another reason I can't walk around in the eye. I have never seen great footage that isnt overexposed from sunlight of the eyewall from the ground. I was hoping to get some myself. Thanks. 
I really would like to see that video....but....would you mind moving first??? 
--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Well I think I've learned enough to finally make a prediction: not about the weather (lack of scientific knowledge), but I will put on my Carnac hat and predict...new thread soon, Emily a major Cat 3 hurricane.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Jul 14 2005 09:21 PM)
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Ha! We have many friends living in various places in Florida. So I have a wide range of places to go. Miami... West Palm... Tampa... Fl keys, obviously here. No worries. I have a strong desire to document the hurricane that will undoubtedly dominate Florida's history for years to come. That is... the major hurricane that passes right over Miami. My family has lived in Miami for as long as anyone can remember, and I remember stories of many hurricanes, including the great Miami hurricane of 1926. If this were to happen today (which it will one day) it would cost 100 billion dollars.
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 09:45 PM)
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
The central Atlantic one Taz (15N/42W) Moving west at 15 knots.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
i think Emily will become a Cat 4 or even the First Cat 5 of the Season. Also i would recommend checking out jason's weather blog on .com ( jason's web blog ) seems there is a weather doppler war here in Panama City Market now...
Also here's my favorite new hurricane site for this season
NASA 2005 Hurricanes
have been reading that there may have been an umanned flight into while in carribean and there could be one very soon with emily. Most NASA and NOAA flights will be out of Juan Santa Maria Airport in San Jose, Costa Rica until July 23rd, which now may be extended until Aug 1st, due too Atlantic early season systems. They project is going to be about pacific storms , but atlantic has picked up sooner than expected and may send some research over. There is a picture of the ER-2 down there on the web site that made a recent hrd flight and are schedule now for our friend Emily. Also the umanned flight information can be found HERE .
***Also the G-IV is in St. Crois, USVI , for Emily now****
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Jul 14 2005 10:14 PM)
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
A haboob is a specific type of wind event. I don't know the particulars beyond that, but I imagine they are probably available from a Google search.
Storm Hunter -- those flights are based out of the CAMEX/TCSP field program current going on down in Costa Rica. The website has a bunch of 5xL.TCSP listings on their website, which are special regions geard towards assisting in forecasting for their field missions. The primary mission is to fly into convection and developing tropical systems to gather information for future research; the hurricane task is secondary. They flew into during its formative stages; it remains to be seen as to whether or not they fly into the mature Emily. However, since they have the planes down there, I imagine they will fly them. There is a group from down there, primarily for forecasting tasks...some of my friends as well, thus the connection to the program.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
|
|
Quote:
i think Emily will become a Cat 4 or even the First Cat 5 of the Season. Also i would recommend checking out jason's weather blog on .com ( jason's web blog ) seems there is a weather doppler war here in Panama City Market now...
Also here's my favorite new hurricane site for this season
NASA 2005 Hurricanes
have been reading that there may have been an umanned flight into while in carribean and there could be one very soon with emily. Most NASA and NOAA flights will be out of Juan Santa Maria Airport in San Jose, Costa Rica until July 23rd, which now may be extended until Aug 1st, due too Atlantic early season systems. They project is going to be about pacific storms , but atlantic has picked up sooner than expected and may send some research over. There is a picture of the ER-2 down there on the web site that made a recent hrd flight and are schedule now for our friend Emily. Also the umanned flight information can be found HERE .
***Also the G-IV is in St. Crois, USVI , for Emily now****
that blog is great. he backs up the landfall issue with fact and as far as the other stuff goes he is stating his opinion and we can only assume he is correct. nice work jason mixing it up and taking no prisoners.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Yeah i see that primary mission is IFEX (Intensity Forecast EXperiment) 2005, i see that NOAA plans a flight for this too now. i mean two Flights!
aircraft missions
The NOAA N43RF will fly a tropical cyclone genesis mission as part of IFEX in conjunction with the NASA ER-2 jet. The P3 will leave San Jose, Costa Rica at 1:00 AM EDT and will recover at San Jose, Costa Rica by 10:00 AM EDT.
NOAA 42 and 43 both planned for missions
also on the umanned page (aerosonde.com)....pretty cool pictures from down there.... see any friends, clark?
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Aw man... that totaly takes all the fun out of it. I guess you see one hurricane (or in these guys cases... thousands) you see them all. I wonder if that job (hurricane hunters) ever gets monotonous?
--------------------
cheers
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
So far this year They have done an excellent job of predicting where the storms are headed. Sure there are fluctuations, but as is stressed here to *no* end, The is the source. They are the group to listen to and to base your decisions on.
We have some really smart and intelligent people here, and the meterologists here are as solid as they come. But honestly, most of us are not pros, we're here as hobbiests who have a fascination, if not an outright love of hurricanes. (if you experience enough of them, I'm sure that love turns into a love/hate, but that's another story  )
So, I just wanted to give a thank you to the for their hard work.
Ok, On to Emily, As has been mentioned previously, there is nothing really coming down to break the ridge that's holding Emily to a WNW course, however it looks like there could be something pushing down into TX and LA on Saturday. If it's able to erode the ridge, it's possible the storm could shift more to the NW. That's the only thing I can see that *might* affect the forecast path. The storm (and the season for that matter) seems to be throwing climatology out the window so there goes the hurricane graveyard theory.
There's still a few days left, but Anyone in the yucatan is hopefully making the preparations they need to make for a major hurricane. I think the is on target here, but if the storm does shift, I can see landfall happening between Corpus Christi and Houston. Water is warm, 29 - 31 degrees. I'm horrible at making intensity predictions, but if I had to put myself on the record, if it folows the path as expected, 120 kts landfall on the yucatan, and recovering to hit mexico at 105kts. If it treks north, It'll hit harder.
The chances of it hitting Florida are about 1 in 100, if that high.
Just my thoughts
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Also here's the NASA TSCP web page
http://camex.msfc.nasa.gov/tcsp/
(The Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) mission)
For those who would like to see where most hurricanes come from in atlantic, check out this NASA video of Hurricane Isabel from 2003.... Watch nasa follow here from her "Cradle to Grave" across the atlantic. Quote "she packed her bags for United States"....NASA follows her...
Recommend Windows Media Player < click link
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Eh, not really. For those that I know from , this is their first experience working on a field project like this...and, unfortunately, they may only get one chance to fly during the entire month down there.
Personally, as someone in the field and a tropical nut, I don't think I'd ever grow tired of going into the storms. Perhaps forecasting them, sure, but probably not seeing them up-close-and-in-person.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Something that hasn't received a lot of press in the mainstream -- but is receiving some buzz in the community -- is the potential for very high waves in association with Emily. Essentially, the rapid forward speed of the storm comes close to matching that of the wave propagation outward from the storm, meaning that the waves become trapped within the storm's circulation. As this happens, they continue to grow in response to the high wind speeds and accumulation of energy. This will have the greatest impact to areas to the right of the storm's motion, as this is where the waves will be crashing upon landfall.
Current forecasts are for wave heights -- not surge -- of over 20ft. offshore of the Yucutan in a few days, decreasing into the mid-to-high teens as the storm makes landfall. The coastline of Jamaica may well see these high waves as well...and if the storm passes near enough to them, may take out some of the wave energy and spare the Mexican/Central American coastline. Needless to say, for whichever landmass is most affected by this storm's waves, the potential for damage due to coastal flooding far exceeds that seen with and is something to watch over the next 3 days.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Clark, get this:
My mom signed me up for private driving lessons a few days ago, and my instructor was ancient (I felt a little nervous driving with him). We started talking and I invariably brought up the subject of hurricanes and flying into them (I am a pilot in training). To that he responded… you don’t want to fly in one, trust me. I inquired as to why, and to my surprise, this guy was captain on one of the first B-29's to fly through the eye of a hurricane. They were instructed to circle the eyewall as scientist on board took pictures and recorded data. He talked about the downdrafts and updrafts (as you know, they couldn’t detect them back then), and how sometimes planes would come back with salt water in their engines.
I was absolutely astounded, and missed a stop sign because I was asking him so many questions.
EDIT: On your last post, I have a question about wind speed in relation to the systems forward speed. The LI express comes to mind, where the wind gusts were 180mph + despite the fact that the storm was only a category 3. Is that a product of the extremely high speed that the storm was traveling?
Hurricane Hazel in the 50’s (?) is another one.
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 11:12 PM)
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
so what bout franklin? i dont see 2 much.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
