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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Could Emily go the same way as Charley?
      #42698 - Wed Jul 13 2005 07:17 AM

http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2004s3-2005s5

I was taking a look, comparing storm after storm with Emily, and I got as far back as Charley when I realized that although Charley was 'born' a bit West of Emily, it was nearly at the same latitude (Charley = 11.7N, Emily = 11.1N) of Emily's current position.

Any insight or historical data as to the conditions of the area at the time of Charley as opposed to Emily? Could Emily take this route, or are conditions so different that there's little to no chance of Emily making a turn towards the North?

EDIT:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/EMILY_graphics.shtml
and
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY_graphics.shtml

These are the forecast tracks (animation) for Emily and Charley, respectively. I opened the two in tabs (yay firefox) and had them paused on Charley's first forecast track and Emily's most recent track.

Taking into account the disparity between their respective times of season, I think there might be a possibility for Emily to take a more Northerly course in the next couple days, culminating in a Florida impact. I eyeballed it a bit, took into account the notable vigor of this year's season, and came up with this guess. I'd like to see some more knowledgeable people weigh in on this. How different are the conditions aloft with these two storms?

Edited by BullitNutz (Wed Jul 13 2005 08:01 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42943 - Thu Jul 14 2005 12:31 AM

I'll try a short answer. As your question really requires a Met.
You are right on track-no pun intended, with the respect to seasons.
The Bermuda High position and strengths have more to do with the tracks playing out than the season. But then the Bermuda High varies with the season.
Here are two links to lower (850 mb) and upper (200 mb) level maps.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QUNA00latest.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QHQA17latest.gif

Lower would be more likely to steer a TD or TS, and maybe even a CAT1.
Upper level 200mb would be the steering map for major 'canes.

Check the time/ date under the map.
The map I'm looking at right now hasn't updated since 8 AM EDT Wednesday.
JUL 12 2005 1200 GMT is 8 AM EDT. EDT=GMT-4, CDT=GMT-5


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: danielw]
      #42944 - Thu Jul 14 2005 12:47 AM

Ok, from those maps, it seems that unless a storm comes in North of the Antilles on a rather oblique angle, or is sufficiently strong enough, Florida (at the time of these maps) is shielded. Emily's current strength predisposes her to the control of the 850mb map, which seems to sling her right towards the Yucatan, and if she deepens in a hurry (+30mph winds in a day, like today) she'll head more towards Central America, but in her current position, the streams could present a shearing effect, placing a damper on her strength development.

If I'm reading these correctly, and I think I am, the Isotachs are like Isobars, read a bit like a topo map. The closer the lines are together, the "steeper" the differential is. If she doesn't pick up strength, she'll accelerate towards the Yucatan, and by force of inertia, most likely end up crossing it and end up impacting Texas as a TS or low Cat 1.

Like you said, the question requires a Met to be answered authoritatively, but those maps have definitely given me an insight as to the atmospheric "powers that be."
Thanks.


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ClarkModerator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: BullitNutz]
      #42947 - Thu Jul 14 2005 01:04 AM

Just as a heads-up, the primary lines on those maps are what we call streamlines. But, you have the right call on what it means: the tighter they are, generally the stronger the winds.

Emily could go the same way as Charley, but the current or forecast conditions do not favor it. This is subject to change, but the model guidance has been pretty consistent in maintaining the storm on a westward path towards the western Gulf in about 4-5 days.

The following website uses research done into the tracks of tropical cyclones to come up with the best "steering layer" to use when trying to make a track forecast. As Danny mentioned, the upper levels are better for deeper storms, while the lower levels are better for weaker ones; the best layer for any given storm (based off of pressure) is noted on the page: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

Hope this helps!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 338
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: Clark]
      #42950 - Thu Jul 14 2005 01:34 AM

now for a real dummy question.. what steering layer tends to steer cains most? 500 mb? 800 mb? A different one?

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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #42951 - Thu Jul 14 2005 02:30 AM

This was answered upthread, but I'll reiterate it:

Lower-level (850mb) on the two B&W maps are normally TS's and weaker 'canes.

Upper-level (200mb) are for stronger 'canes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QUNA00latest.gif (850mb)

and

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QHQA17latest.gif (200mb)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: Clark]
      #42956 - Thu Jul 14 2005 06:02 AM

Thanks Clark. It sure is nice to have a Met around at night!
I can only do so much...then it's search time.
I couldn't think of the CIMSS site. Guess I drew a blank, because I get a lot of my imagery and data from them.

One thing I neglected to include with the maps link above.
You may see Big differences between the maps.

Right now you should find a counterclockwise circle in the area of Emily on the 850mb map.
On the 200mb map you may find a clockwise circle in the same area as Emily.
To put it bluntly. This is her 'exhaust stack'.
What the Low brings off the surface is passed to the High for 'dispersion' away from the storm.

If you would like to PM questions to me. I'll be glad to give them a shot. Or you may post them here.


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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
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Reged: Tue
Posts: 338
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Could Emily go the same way as Charley? [Re: BullitNutz]
      #43106 - Thu Jul 14 2005 05:29 PM

TkU

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