Biowatch
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Just received a call from my daughter who is with a group of teenagers in Merida after moving away from the east coast this morning....They have students on the 2cnd and 3rd floor of a 3 story building and are talking about shutting down the electricity. She is asking what floor would be best for the group to be on and approx what time they should make the move. Can anyone project what time might present the worst case scenario for them? They had their first band of rain go through about 2 hrs ago.
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nl
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ill pray for your daughter. my friend went on a cruise down there im a little worried. 
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Margie
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They will probably be just fine where they are and will probably just see some gusty wind and some rain.
The eye will pass considerably to the north of them, it will have been over land for quite some time, the intense part of the storm is extremely small, and that intensity doesn't last very far inland.
So all they will see is a lot of rain and some gusts, maybe up to 25mph, occasionally. In other words, they could be on any floor, they could go outside in the rain, they will be fine.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Jul 18 2005 12:59 AM)
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nl
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remember piedras negras? could it be that bad?
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MichaelA
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Quote:
Just received a call from my daughter who is with a group of teenagers in Merida after moving away from the east coast this morning....They have students on the 2cnd and 3rd floor of a 3 story building and are talking about shutting down the electricity. She is asking what floor would be best for the group to be on and approx what time they should make the move. Can anyone project what time might present the worst case scenario for them? They had their first band of rain go through about 2 hrs ago.
I'm glad they made Merida. I'd vote for the second floor-building above and below. Besides, the higher up, the higher the wind speed. Emily should be a much weaker storm by then. Move before sunrise.
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Michael
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ftlaudbob
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Quote:
Just received a call from my daughter who is with a group of teenagers in Merida after moving away from the east coast this morning....They have students on the 2cnd and 3rd floor of a 3 story building and are talking about shutting down the electricity. She is asking what floor would be best for the group to be on and approx what time they should make the move. Can anyone project what time might present the worst case scenario for them? They had their first band of rain go through about 2 hrs ago.
They will be fine in Merida,I have been there and it has many solid buildings and is far enough away from the coast.The worst for Merida will be very early Monday,around 5-9am.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Jul 18 2005 12:59 AM)
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Biowatch
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Thanks, all.....Sounds like it won't be too bad where she is.....I guess all that can be done at this point, has been done! Hopefully, it will move quickly across the Yucan....
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bn765
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Quote:
is that almost a TD behind her? and is she regaining strength again?
Could that become a depression pretty soon?
Edited by bn765 (Mon Jul 18 2005 01:02 AM)
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nl
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ne of her does that look like that wave is developing? 90 miles from cozumel.
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ftlaudbob
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My friends from there that are staying here in Ft Laud.,are getting drunk at the local clubs here.As I said before no booze in Mexico when a hurricane is coming.They just hope they have something to return to.My other friends went to hotels in Cancun and Merida.Were all very upset about our beloved Playa Del Carmen.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Terra
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The northern(well, more of a northern component) jog should just be a result of it being the end of the EWRC, right?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Margie
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Looks like the eye may come ashore around Tancah. If so, I really doubt if Cancun will see much of anything as far as wind. Forgot for the moment they'd still get storm surge.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Jul 18 2005 01:15 AM)
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ftlaudbob
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Quote:
Looks like the eye may come ashore around Tancah. If so, I really doubt if Cancun will see much of anything as far as wind. Forgot for the moment they'd still get storm surge.
That is only about 10 miles north of Tulum,I can not see it hitting that far south.Now the eye in not looking great,I give up.For 3 years I was up and down this coast,I do know it well.It is one of the coolest places on earth.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MichaelA
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Vis sat at 2345Z still shows a ragged eye structure - Convection on East and West sides and overcast. I'm guessing 120 -125 MPH at 11PM.
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Michael
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danielw
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I've checked both the WV and IR imagery. I appears to me that the eye may be displaced to the NW. I see a tight curl in the last hour NW of where the was taking place.
I'm using http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/goes
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Clark
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Whoa....the eye is projected to pass very near Merida, and given the forward speed of the storm and the relatively flat terrain of the Yucutan, it'll likely keep hurricane intensity throughout. Winds to hurricane force can be expected in the region -- maybe a little less if it passes just east of there -- with gusts higher. The main threat will be rain and flooding, yes, but wind damage is likely in the region too. I don't want to raise an alarm, but they are very much in the projected path. Being a story or so up is fine to keep from feeling any potential flooding impacts; being higher up isn't due to the higher winds aloft.
To take on some other questions...
* There is no TD behind Emily right now. Anything near Emily is an artifact of the storm itself, while there is nothing else of interest until you get east of the Lesser Antilles. The convection you see there is currently rather disorganized and part of the interaction between the old 99L and an upper-level low. Not likely for development at this time in the next few days due to the upper low and dry air in the region. Upper lows can work their way down to the surface and spin up something, but I don't see it really happening here...and even if it does, it'd take several days.
* The overall satellite appearance on Emily has improved from earlier, but it is nowhere near the intensity that it was just a day ago. Even a 20mph drop in winds -- I suspect it may be a little more than that before landfall -- is an exponential drop in damage. Given the small size of the storm, that's a lot. I suspect the storm is feeling the influences of the upper low over the Bay of Campeche, both in the northward jog over the past couple hours and a slightly sheared appearance. Wobbles can be expected to landfall, given the reorganization of the storm, but a maybe slightly further north motion than we've been seeing can be expected in the short-term (~6-12hr), evening back out more towards the west thereafter.
* Why have people not left? Well, while there are a number of resorts through the region, there are a lot of people in that region who simply cannot leave. Where else would they go? It's just like in the United States, where people go to shelters or to safe houses...when you are in an isolated region with your entire family with you, where are you going to go? Most people there have taken precautions and should come through the storm relatively okay. It's nothing they want to deal with, of course, but their preparations and lead time are just the same that we get.
* Wave action is going to be very high near where the storm makes landfall, despite the dropoff in intensity. The wave action has been building up with the storm for many days now; the fast translation speed of the storm has aided in this, allowing the waves to build and build and build. The jog northward and overall small size of the storm may have helped to contain these effects somewhat, but they will still be felt. The Weather Channel graphics earlier today were showing a broad 1-3' area of water rise...with knowledge of where the center is going to make landfall (give or take) now, I would ramp that up to over 10' near the landfall point, dropping off from there.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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ftlaudbob
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Thanks Clark.May I ask you about what you think the damage to Playa Del Carmen will be?Most everything there is right on the beach or very close.I know I am asking alot ,but there are people here with me that would really like to know if they will have a town to go back to.How deep will the water be say,3 blocks from the ocean there.Will Cozumel be enough to help with the storm surge in Playa.Please just give me your opinon on the damage to Playa Del Carmen.Thank you very much.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
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I did get carried away, didn't I!
Well a very nice line of thunderstorms is passing through. I'm up on the leading edge in a southern suburb of Mpls but the entire nasty thing is starting to bow out further down south, and we just started getting a lot of lightning.
Typical MN fun after we get an unusually warm day. Temps will be a lot lower tomorrow.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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MichaelA
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No visible eye on the last frame of the IR loop - 0045Z.
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Michael
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Biowatch
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Thanks for your view, Clark. I did think Merida was in a direct path, and was confused as to what would take the force down with the lack of any elevation. I know it is not that close to the coast, but did not think there was enough real estate in between landfall and Merida to take it down much.
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